RECENT CHANGES IN THE SIZES OF SIBERIAN CITIES

The author, comparing growth histories of East and West Siberian cities of over 50,000 population through regression and cluster analysis techniques, develops a number of city typologies based on magnitude of population growth, economic specialization, and social infrastructure. It is argued that such typologies are useful in planning because they identify types of cities experiencing similar growth conditions and instances where cities have changed from one type of situation to another. Although the study is limited to 1926-1986, it addresses economic and social components of Siberian urban growth relevant to the interpretation of preliminary results of the 1989 census (translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK).     

INDUSTRIAL DISPERSION IN THE SOVIET UNION: AN APPLICATION OF ENTROPY MEASURES

Industrial dispersion across the republics of the USSR between 1926 and 1974 is described through the use of entropy measures. Ostensibly, a set of location principles would guide such dispersion, and several of them stress regional equalization as an important consideration in locating industry. Therefore, trends in regional inequality (in industrialization) are investigated through the use of inequality statistics derived from entropy measures at three different spatial scales. Between 1926 and 1960, inequality among the republics decreased, but has increased between 1960 and 1974. However, inequality has decreased between the economic regions of the USSR between 1940 and 1975, and at the oblast level, there has been a tendency toward greater equality (homogeneity) within each economic region or republic since 1960. In attempting to account for these diverse trends, it is suggested that they are largely the result of the priority of efficiency considerations in location decisions rather than those of regional equity per se.     

The Water-Balance Components of the Aral Sea and their Impact on Long-Term Level Fluctuations

An analysis of water-balance components over the 45-year period 1926–1970 seeks to establish their relative significance in the marked decline of the Aral Sea level since 1961. Long-term fluctuations in the sea level are found to reflect both natural fluctuations in the water resources available to the drainage basin and the steady growth of human activity in the watershed area. An increase in water withdrawals for irrigation in the 1950s did not appreciably affect the Aral Sea level because of generally large water resources during those years. The intensive decline of the water level since 1961 is attributed mainly to a growth of consumptive withdrawals from the Syrdarya and Amudarya, the two main tributaries of the Aral Sea. The position of the sea level also depends on the annual fluctuations of evaporation from the sea surface, which tends to be more variable than the annual streamflow to the sea. The subsurface component of Aral Sea inflow, contrary to previous studies, is found to be a negligible factor.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE SOVIET UNION

Analysis of spatial patterns of attained educational levels is helpful in understanding the cultural geography of an area, perhaps especially in the Soviet Union, with its many ethnic groups and stated aim of providing equality of education regardless of ethnicity or sex. The proportion of the population that had completed a higher education was mapped at oblast level from 1970 census data. High rates are found in certain urban areas, Estonia and Latvia, Georgia, and certain sparsely populated areas of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. There are regional patterns of disparity between male and female rates of completed higher education and between rural and urban rates, despite Soviet attempts to reduce these inequalities. The distribution of Soviet higher educational institutions conforms generally to the distribution of population, although access to higher education opportunities appears to be geographically limited in some regions. (Maps by Joann L. Krupa, George Mason University.)     

SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION OF POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN A DECLINING REGION: THE CASE OF SAARLAND

We increasingly understand the causes of population decline: these can be, among others, processes of deindustrialization, decreasing fertility or the succession of a city through the stages of urban life as the city matures. However, we are still insufficiently able to explain why differences still exist between cities within regions experiencing the same macro‐processes and between cities of the same “level of maturity”. This research addresses this intra‐regional differentiation in population development in the declining former mining region of Saarland (Germany). Quantitative and qualitative analysis reveals that the differentiation in current decline stems from (1) the differentiated population development trajectories of the past, with a massive population boom followed by an aged and declining population in the industrial municipalities; and (2) the spatial distribution of amenities over the region; and (3) the spatial distribution and accessibility of housing opportunities steering migration flows. The latter are not necessarily concentrated in those areas that are attractive. Rather, the distribution of these housing opportunities strictly follows the planning logic of the supra‐local institutional framework, with a concentration of housing within easy access of major transportation infrastructure and in larger centres. The case study thus reveals that the mechanisms behind this intraregional differentiation are much more complex than often portrayed in the urban development and decline debate.     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

Growth of Rural Industries in Post-reform China: Patterns,Determinants and Consequences

The first question addressed by this paper relates to the very high growth rates achieved by China's rural industries during the post-reform period. While growth rates have undoubtedly been extremely high, they can only be put in a proper perspective when growth in different components of the sector (i.e. township- and village-owned and privately owned industries) is examined separately and compared with performance before the reforms. In this regard, an important finding of the paper is that as far as township and village industries are concerned, growth rates in the post-reform period do not represent a sudden break from the rates of the earlier period — particularly the 1970s. It is mainly in the emergence and growth of private enterprises that the growth experience of the 1980s differs substantially from that of the 1970s. The sharp decline in the growth of all rural industries in 1989 does not appear to mark a reversal in their growth environment, but the beginning of a period of consolidation and rationalization; and, contrary to popular notion, private enterprises are not the worst sufferers in this process. Finally, the paper looks at regional imbalance. Historically, rural industries in China have been concentrated more in the eastern provinces along the coast, and this regional concentration has increased during the post-reform period of high growth.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

中国城市群对外服务功能强度与结构分析

城市流描述了城市的基本活动部分,体现了城市的对外服务功能。城市流强度揭示了城市对外联系的强弱,它与城市中心性的极强相关性表明,城市流强度是表征城市对外服务功能的量化指标。通过中国13个主要城市群的城市流强度与结构分析,从城市流视角探讨中国城市群对外服务功能空间分布特征及其增长情况。研究表明,长三角、珠三角城市群是全国性的以制造业为主的综合型对外生产服务中心,京津冀北城市群是全国性的以第三产业为主的综合型对外生产服务中心,山东半岛城市群初步形成以第二产业为主的全国性对外生产服务中心,成渝、辽中南等其余9个城市群为区域性对外生产服务中心。研究指出,城市群往往生成于我国各级产业轴线交汇的地方,由产业轴级别差异,将会形成不同规模等级的城市群,由此可以从各级产业轴线上寻找和培育新的城市群。研究认为,由城市流强度占GDP比重而确定的外部贡献率,是城市的基本活动部门对地区生产总值增长的贡献份额,城市群区域内部密切的经济联系与交流提高了各城市的外部贡献率,由城市间密切经济联系而形成的城市流是城市群演化发育的内在机制之一。     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

多伦多都市区的居住空间结构研究

本文采用因子生态分析方法剖析多伦多都市区的居住空间结构。主成分分析表明,家庭构成、年龄构成、职业构成是形成城市居住分异的主要因素。聚类分析表明,家庭构成和年龄构成的分异呈同心园格局,职业构成的分异呈扇形格局。形成这种居住分异格局的机制包括动力机制、管理机制和行为机制三个方面。     

DYNAMICS OF POPULATION IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR (1959-1984)

Analysis of change in the spatial distribution of population in the Ukrainian SSR demonstrates a pronounced shift toward the east and south, and toward the major metropolitan area of Kiev and Kiev Oblast. An upsurge in city growth in the least urbanized, western Ukraine, coupled with steady, above-average urban growth in other locations, has contributed to gradual erosion of the Donets-Dnieper Region's dominance in urban population. Accelerated rates of rural population decline in western areas of highest rural population concentration has promoted a gradual equalization of the distribution of rural population (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

Basic Trends in the Population Geography of Contemporary Cuba

Population changes in Cuba are analyzed on the basis of differential growth rates in provinces and urban centers. Three types of areas are distinguished: (1) those where population continues to be concentrated as a result of high growth rates exceeding the national average (notably major industrial towns and ports and rapidly developing agricultural areas); (2) areas recording absolute population increases, but at lower rates of growth than the national average; (3) areas in which population is declining.     

新经济下广州城市竞争力分析

本文评述了新经济及竞争力的研究进展,认为新经济下城市竞争力的系统研究尚不多见;分析了城市竞争力发展的阶段及驱动因素,参考硅谷的发展模式,总结了新经济下城市竞争力系统的要素组成,并受经济全球化、信息技术革命、创新精神等外界环境影响。文章具体构建了新经济下城市竞争力的评价指标体系,选取北京、上海、深圳为对比城市,对新经济下广州竞争力作了比较分析,并对新经济下广州城市竞争力的内部差异作了分析。文章最后对新经济下提高广州的竞争力提出了建议。     

The Economics of Rural Households in Russia: Impact of Village Location

An American specialist on Russia's agrarian sector and two collaborators explore the effects of distance to nearby urban markets on the agricultural output and income of Russian rural households. Unlike previous studies that have largely tested such effects on the basis of household distance from relatively large oblast administrative centers, the authors adopt a micro-level scale of analysis, focusing on distance from smaller rayon centers. Comparison of two sample populations (near vs. remote from rayon center) from a larger survey population of 900 households in nine representative regions of Russia reveals marked differences in household incomes, commodity output, and real holdings of land that are statistically verified by a linear regression model. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, P32, Q15, Q18. 4 tables, 46 references.     

从城市地理学角度论国外城市更新历程

西方城市更新的历程演变在建筑学、城市规划学中已有一定程度的探讨。本文从城市地理学的角度对城市更新历程加以归纳和总结:(1)近代城市本身物质空间结构的更新(工业革命-19世纪末);(2)城市在"城市-区域"系统上的更新(19世纪末-1970'S);(3)"内城(中心城)"更新复兴阶段(1970'S-)。通过归纳和总结,我们可以借鉴其经验和教训。     

The use of Savings-Bank Statistics in Economic Geography

Soviet savings-bank statistics are examined as a potential source of data in economic-geographic research, with particular reference to four distinctive areas of Donetsk Oblast (Yenakiyevo, a large coal-steel city; Debal'tsevo, a middle-size railroad town; a suburban rural area; and a purely rural area). The average deposit balance in rural areas tends to be larger and more stable than in cities. City dwellers view savings banks as a place for keeping temporarily available money while rural residents use the banks for savings for particular purposes (home building, automobile purchase, etc.). The coefficient of territorial concentration (the ratio of the mean deposit in the local area to the mean deposit in the oblast as a whole) reflects differences in income levels. The mean deposit tends to be highest in suburban rural areas, where employment in the central city is supplemented by the sale of produce from private garden plots. Income levels in Yenakiyevo, with its high-paid labor force in the coal and steel industries, are higher than among the railroad workers of Debal'tsevo. Changes in deposit balances through the year also reflect urban and rural peculiarities in family incomes and expenditures.     

Economic-Geographic Prediction Of The Process Of Economic Development Of An Area (with particular reference to Irkutsk Oblast)

The present stage of economic development of Irkutsk Oblast is evaluated with a view to predicting future trends. The present stage is evaluated in terms of the economic structure of three intra-oblast regions (using Kolosovskiy's technique of energy-and-production cycles) and in terms of historical development axes reflected in settlement field potentials (see the author's paper in Soviet Geography, September 1970). Future development of the oblast is expected to be based on fuel and energy, forest, and nonferrous metal resources. The development process is said to operate both “in depth” (intensification) and “in breadth” (opening up of new areas). Development in depth, involving additional settling of high-density areas, produces pollution problems and involves the need for allocating recreation zones. Future development “in breadth” is expected in the northwest, northeast and south of the oblast, particularly along the border of Krasnoyarsk Kray, where a revision of administrative-political boundaries seems to be required. A reorientation toward the east of the oblast's predominantly westward orientation is advocated.     

连云港市的港-城协调发展模式演化及影响要素

港口与城市之间的协调发展是实现港城互动、提升港口城市竞争力的重要途径。以连云港市1989—2009年统计数据为基础,构建了港口与城市协调发展的综合评价指标体系,运用因子分析方法计算出两系统综合发展指数;结合协调度、静态和动态协调发展度,对连云港港口与城市的协调发展模式的演化轨迹进行评价和分析。结果表明:①1989—2009年,连云港市港—城协调发展模式总体上经历了濒临失调模式到勉强协调模式再到基本协调模式的演化过程;②港口与城市基本处在协调发展的轨迹上,动态协调发展度呈逐渐增长的态势。进一步分析认为协调发展模式的演化主要由港口功能的升级、临港产业的壮大、城市发展的支撑等推动以及自然环境和区位因子、腹地的经济水平、周边港口的空间袭夺、港城关系的空间分离等约束要素共同作用。     

贵阳市道路拥堵状态时空分布规律研究——基于出租车GPS大数据

利用贵阳市出租车GPS数据,建立ArcGIS空间模型计算路段平均行程速度,以空间数据库和ArcGIS空间分析为技术支撑,分析道路拥堵状态的时空演化规律。结果表明：①路网平均行程速度的时间分布特征具有高度相似性,且工作日与休息日分布差异大;②工作日高峰时段拥堵区域分布主要以老城区为主。休息日总体上呈现离散分布趋势,且晚高峰时段交通状况比早高峰更拥堵;③工作日早高峰交通拥堵路段呈由中心核心区逐渐向外围扩散的趋势,晚高峰呈由外围向中心核心区聚拢趋势。休息日早高峰不明显,晚高峰呈现由外围区域向内聚拢趋势。基于上述时空演化规律,从城市功能分散、城市道路网、城市空间发展、城市公交系统等方面讨论了贵阳市城市道路交通优化调整对策。