THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

Spatial Shifts in the Population of Moscow Region

An American geographer and senior Russian demographer/migration specialist examine spatial shifts in the distribution of population within Moscow city and Moscow Oblast in response to major social and economic changes occurring in the aftermath of the USSR's disintegration. This second installment (for the first, see Ioffe and Zayonchkovskaya, 2010) in a three-part study devoted to exploring the consequences and spatial manifestations of Russia's shrinking population is focused on the one relatively small part of that country that is expected to experience population growth over the next one and one-half decades (albeit strictly due to in-migration rather than natural increase). Particular attention is devoted to the effects of emerging real estate and land markets during the post-Soviet period, on the restructuring of the regional settlement system focused on the Russian capital, as well as the insights to be derived (based on a case study) from investigating processes of spatial population shifts at multiple scales.     

PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND SE'ITLEMENT IN THE NORTHERN YENISEY REGION

A long-range regional planning forecast of economic development and settlement in the North Yenisey region of Siberia, up to the year 2000, envisages the formation of several territorial production complexes based on the development of mineral resources (the nickelcopper-platinum reserves of the Noril'sk district, aluminum raw materials, iron ore, oil and gas and graphite) and hydroelectric development (hydro stations at Osinovo, Stony Tunguska, Maygunna, Kureyka and Khantayka, and ultimately Igarka and Lower Tunguska). The basic urban centers, in addition to Noril'sk, would be Osinovo, Novoturukhansk and Igarka. Urban population is expected to increase from 220,000 in 1970 to 480,000, and rural population from 40,000 in 1970 to 300,000.     

The Effect of Migration on Changes,Composition, and Distribution of Canada's Population

The high mobility of the Canadian population accounts for the significant influence of migration processes on the dynamics, composition, and distribution of population. Immigration determines to a large extent the age-and-sex and ethnic distribution of the population and labor force, and fosters urbanization. The areal distribution of immigrants intensifies regional differences in the level and structure of the economy. These differences, in turn, are the main factor in interregional migration. The interdependence between regional economic indicators and the intensity of migration is analyzed.     

The Interface of Agricultural and Industrial Growth in the Development Process: Some Facets of the Indian Experience

This paper uses national, regional and sub-regional time series and cross-sectional data to show that the direct statistical relationship between agricultural and industrial growth is weaker than would be expected. To explain the gap between theoretical expectations and empirical results, the roles of lagged responses, the terms of trade effect, wage-price movements, initial agricultural productivity, income distribution and some non-agricultural factors as determinants of industrial growth are assessed. Adequate agricultural growth is important for price stabilization policy and has direct welfare implications for poorer segments of the population. Further, an appropriate policy towards non-agricultural determinants of industrial growth is needed in order to maximize the impact of agricultural growth on industrial development.     

中国互联网与区域经济

文章运用指数定律分析了中国互联网的域名地区分布、地区人均国内生产总值分布和地区人口分布,得出的结论是:中国互联网分布是地区人均国内生产总值的反映,与地区人口分布联系不大。这证实了互联网与区域经济的紧密相关性。研究中还发现,中国互联网仍然处于高速增长期;最后给出了中国互联网增长的速度,以及到达成熟稳定时期所需的时间。     

THE VARIATION OF REGIONAL POPULATION IN JAPAN*

In this paper, firstly a model of the variation of regional population was constructed, based on the work of Klaassen and the wage and job opportunity theories. Secondly, the reduced form of the model was made and fitted to the data of Japan for 1965 and the time period 1960–1965. The model was successfully fitted to the data. It was therefore concluded that in Japan, the mechanism of determination of a regional population could be shown by the model proposed in this paper, and the population in a region was determined by the natural increase of population and the economic activity of the region. Moreover, the fact that the densely populated region in Japan has higher population growth as the region has higher economic activity and higher natural increase ratio of population was found.     

A dynamic model of regional population growth and decline

"This paper presents a two-sector dynamic model of regional population change. The model contains a migration equation, an earnings equation, and an amenity equation for each region. In the context of this model, migration is seen as a disequilibrium process through which the regional populations move towards equilibrium positions. Migration occurs when one region is perceived to be superior to the other on the basis of its earnings and amenity levels. Equilibrium is achieved when population movements between the regions eliminate any differences in their relative attractiveness. A comparative-static analysis of the model is presented to analyze the effects of policy changes and exogenous shocks on the distribution of population among the regions." The geographical focus is on the United States.     

GEOGRAPHICAL PROBLEMS IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TOURISM AND RECREATION IN THE SAYAN TERRITORIAL-PRODUCTION COMPLEX

The Sayan hydroelectric station, now under construction, will give rise to a new industrial district in southern Siberia that is expected to attract a population of one million to the area by the year 2000. This development, together with the attractiveness of the region, is likely to spur the development of one of the Soviet Union's most important recreation zones in the southern portion of Krasnoyarsk Kray and adjoining Tuva ASSR. Careful planning of recreational uses of the region is urged within the framework of the regional geo-engineering system, which involves the interplay between the natural environment and the engineering structures generated by the impending economic development of the area.     

Wishful thinking? Towards a more realistic role for universities in regional innovation policy

ABSTRACT

The past 30 years has seen an escalating interest in the potential role of universities in contributing to their regional economies, reflected in the increasing trend for regional innovation strategies to ascribe a central role for universities, particularly in peripheral, institutionally thin places. The global economic crisis and subsequent austerity measures implemented in many developed economies have put further pressure on universities from national and regional policymakers to become more explicitly involved in contributing to their local economies in order to justify their public funding. This paper will draw on the academic literature to consider how justified this focus is by questioning whether universities are willing or even able to play the roles expected of them in contributing to regional innovation. It will critique an approach to policymaking that often views universities as homogenous actors in the regional innovation system and places an over reliance on imitating success stories from other places without sufficient consideration of the specificities of local conditions. It will argue for a more realistic and nuanced approach to involving universities in regional innovation policy, concluding with key insights for both universities and policymakers.     

传统地域文化形成中的人地关系作用机制初探——以徽州文化为例

人地关系是人文地理学重要的研究领域。徽州文化是农耕文化繁盛时期遗存的典型地域文化。本文主要结合对徽州地域文化的案例研究,剖析传统地域文化形成中的人地关系作用机制。论文认为,自然环境将影响地域人口社会、经济结构的特征,而人口的社会、经济结构则对地域文化的形成和发展有着关键性影响,因此,地域人口的社会、经济结构可以被视为人地相互作用中的关键性链接因素,优化人口结构将有助于区域文化的持续健康发展。     

Specialized industrial cities in the United States 1860–1930

There is a general view among geographers, historians and economists that a high level of industrial specialization is likely to inhibit the growth of a city. The arguments in support of this position emphasize the importance of diversity in the generation of new work. This position is more reasonable for a large geographic region than for an individual city in a regional system. Empirical data on the growth of American cities in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries fail to support the proposition that specialization retards population growth. Specialized cities of a given region and age grew at about the same rate as their regional contemporaries. These data are consistent with the notion that flows of capital, entrepreneurship and labor among cities in a regional system render specialization of little importance to long run population growth.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

The measurement of ancestral roots with genealogical data

This study presents a new method to measure the depth of ancestral roots in a population. This method sheds light on the migratory movements that led to present-day population distribution across space. The method was applied to a dataset of 5,100 ascending genealogies from 17 regions of the province of Quebec (Canada). Dates of marriage of the earliest ancestors married in the same region as their descendants were used to measure the age of individual ancestral roots. The average regional ages vary between 16 and 157 years, while some individual roots reach as far back as 300 years in the same region. The proposed method can be useful for assessing how deeply rooted a contemporary population is at a local, regional, or other geographical level.     

Urban-rural demographic contrasts in Highland Ecuador: town recession in a period of catastrophe 1778–1841

An investigation of three Andean towns in their regional setting forms the basis for an assessment of urban-rural demographic differences. The towns are found to have been ethnically distinct, with a larger proportion of whites than the mainly Indian rural areas. The urban populations also had a larger surplus of women, lower average marriage ages for women but lower proportions married, a higher illegitimacy rate and a slightly older age structure. Trends in urban districts differed from those in rural areas. The towns suffered major population losses, and their share of the regional population fell from nearly 10% in 1778 to around 5% in 1841. The factors affecting population trends are examined in order to identify those which had a differential urban-rural impact. Earthquake and warfare were of key significance. In a regional context of economic depression and population stagnation, these two catastrophes instigated a major urban recession. The three towns shared in the urban decline experienced in many parts of Latin America, but their recession was particularly pronounced owing to the impact of catastrophes.     

Regional Polarization under Transition: The Case of Slovakia

This paper analyses trends in regional polarization in Slovakia on the NUTS II and NUTS IV levels for the period 1985–2002 from the neo-classical and polarization approaches to regional development. Development of disparities in regional incomes was examined via an econometric model. The model was based on extensive datasets from Slovak districts for the period 1985–2002. It identified unemployment rates, urbanization rates, shares of population with university degree and share of foreign investors in total enterprises as major factors behind regional divergence. Strong polarization between Bratislava and the rest of the country was the most remarkable feature of regional development after 1989.     

Regional development processes and policies in Australia: a review of research 1990–2002

This article offers a selective review of Australian research on regional development. The themes reviewed include divergence and convergence, resource dependent regional growth, the spatial centralization of the economy, spatial divisions, the social construction of regional identity and regional problems, differentiation between the capital cities and between rural areas, indigenous issues, the suburbanization versus centralization debate, the regional effects of economic reform, regional policy debates, and industry clusters. Australia illustrates regional development processes in a low population density, resource dependent, medium sized economy, managed by neo‐liberal economic policies and with limited government intervention in regional policy.     

Small firm innovation networks in the Valencia region

This article makes a contribution to the study of the role of regional authorities in the process of regional development by analyzing the case of the Valencia region, a Spanish peripheral region whose economic success was historically dependent upon the maintenance of low labour costs in traditional artisan manufacturing activities. This led to an extreme focus on products of poor quality. In order to overcome this situation, Valencian regional authorities have launched an important number of policies that aim at solving two of the most important weaknesses of the regions: the high dependence on a few manufacturing activities, and the lack of a technology policy that could help to enhance the quality of the Valencian products. The analysis of the measures adopted by the regional authorities in the region of Valencia is expected to be of interest for other peripheral regions characterized by a similar situation—i.e. a traditional lack of interest in technology and innovation.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

REGIONAL POPULATION–EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY*

ABSTRACT An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes that intrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of local and regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing the spatio‐temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally do not include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowing for economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially in forecasting. An econometric model of population–employment dynamics, in which sectoral variations in economic development are explicitly taken into account, is applied to a large urban planning policy proposal in the Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest that population dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly on intersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and their effect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatory housing and planning restrictions are enforced.