THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE AND THE INTEGRATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN REGIONS OF THE USSR

The construction of the BAM is viewed as serving two purposes: one, the development of new resource sites for export through Soviet Pacific ports, particularly to Japan; second, the accelerated development of new parts of East Siberia and the Far East, serving ultimately as a bridgehead for further advance toward the Northeast. Key resource areas to be given priority in development are the Neryungri coking-coal basin of South Yakutia, for export to Japan; the Udokan copper deposit, and the Molodezhnoye asbestos deposit. Because of the harsh environment, it is unlikely that any processing activities beyond mineral concentration and forest products industries will be located in the BAM zone, at least in the early stages of development. Food supply for the growing population will be largely dependent on hauls of bread and feed grains from southern portions of West Siberia and vegetables from as far away as Central Asia. Future territorial production complexes along the BAM are tentatively outlined.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE A MAJOR NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

A Soviet planning official discusses planning for the BAM project, a major new railroad to be completed by 1982 in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. The construction of a well equipped rail line, supplied with specially designed tank-cars unit trains, was found to be more economical than the construction of an ordinary railroad, needed for resource development north of the present Trans-Siberian, and of a separate oil pipeline from West Siberia's oil fields across Siberia to Far Eastern refineries and tanker export terminals. Under the decision taken by the Soviet planning authorities, crude oil will move by pipeline from the West Siberian fields to Tayshet, where it will be trans-shipped to tank-car trains taking the oil to Urgal. There it will be transferred again to pipelines for transmission to refineries and port terminals. [See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 587–590; map, p. 588.]     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.     

THE SOVIET OIL INDUSTRY IN THE TWELFTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN

The article briefly considers the question of conservation and oil displacement in recent years. It then focuses on the problem of petroleum supplies, on the factors affecting their expansion, and on Soviet efforts and plans in the field. Investment growth in the oil industry and its regional allocation in the 1980s and beyond are examined. The nature and thrust of the exploratory effort, its relationship to the new reserve classifications, and to prospects for the Soviet oil industry are analyzed. Finally, the causes of the current rebound in output and Soviet plans for field development are assessed.     

THE PRESENT STATE AND TASKS OF COMPLEX MAPPING IN THE USSR

Recent developments in the Soviet Union's program of national thematic mapping and regional complex mapping are reviewed. A comprehensive mapping program along these lines, formulated in 1969 by GUGK, the government planning agency, has not been implemented. National thematic maps in the Soviet Union continue to be compiled by individual government agencies without coordination and without uniformity in legend and design, so that comparability is made difficult. The only thematic GUGK maps now being prepared are concerned with two long-term regional development programs in the Soviet Union–the rural development plan for the Nonchernozem zone of the European RSFSR and the construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railroad in the Soviet Far East. The need for a comprehensive and coordinated program of national thematic maps and regional atlases or map series is once again stressed in connection with economic planning and environmental problems, and a program of continuously updated regional atlases, based on digital data banks, is proposed. Suggestions are also made for the coordination of thematic maps at the international level.     

Prospects of Development of the Industrial Complex of the Volga-Vyatka Major Economic Region

The Volga-Vyatka region, one of the Soviet Union's leading machinery and chemical producers, has potentialities for further growth in these two industries. Favorable factors are a skilled labor force and a central transportation location in European Russia, midway between raw-material suppliers and markets. In view of industrial overcrowding in the Gor'kiy and, ultimately, Kirov urban areas, future industrial construction should be planned in medium-size and small cities and in the region's peripheral areas.     

A SUMMARY OF THE GLASGOW CONFERENCE ON SOVIET ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES AND PRACTICES

A meeting of the Advisory Panel on a major research project entitled “Soviet Environmental Policies and Practices: Most Critical Investment Priorities” was convened in Glasgow, Scotland on March 12 and 13, 1988. More than a dozen specialists from Britain, West Germany, and the United States participated. The meeting was hosted by the Institute of Soviet and East European Studies of Glasgow University. The results are summarized below.     

俄罗斯的亚太战略与政策探析

俄罗斯作为苏联解体后的当然继承国,成为当今世界政治经济格局多极化发展趋势中重要的一极。目前俄罗斯承袭了苏联后期的亚太战略,并在某种程度上使其有所发展。本文在分析苏联后期实施亚太战略与政策的基础上,着重探讨了俄罗斯目前实施亚太政治经济战略的新东方政策与措施,并对其远东同亚太各国的经济联系的近期态势进行了实证分析;论述了中俄关系对实施其亚太战略的重要性;指出中俄建立面向21世纪的战略协作伙伴关系完全符合两国各自的地缘经济利益。     

FROM GERMANY'S EAST PRUSSIA TO THE SOVIET UNION'S KALININGRAD OBLAST: A CASE OF SEQUENT OCCUPANCE

East Prussia, historically a German region, was divided between Poland and the Soviet Union at the end of World War II, with the northern, Soviet portion becoming Kaliningrad Oblast of the RSFSR. The author, who has long studied the transformation of the region as part of the Soviet Union, assesses the changes in administration, population and economy that have occurred.     

Russia’s Natural Resources in the World Economy: history,review and reassessment

Abstract

Russia’s role in the global economic system today, and the Soviet Union’s in the past, is dominated by the export of natural resources, particularly oil and gas. The rents earned from these exports are both a source of strength and weakness, as they link the fortunes of Russia’s domestic economy to the volatility of global resource markets. This paper returns to a major research project conducted through the offices of the Association of American Geographers that resulted in Soviet Natural Resources in the World Economy, published in 1983. The project was first conceived in the aftermath of the resource crisis in the 1970s and concluded in the early 1980s as the Soviet Union sought to increase resource exports to support a failing domestic economy. This paper examines the origins, evolution, and management of this seminal work and presents a re-reading of the book in a contemporary context. We develop some of the key themes of the original project and conclude that it has contemporary relevance, as a reliance upon the resource sector remains a defining characteristic of Russia’s political economy and continues to shape Russia’s role in the global economy. We find that the regional dimension that was so important in the original project remains critical as Russia seeks to extend the resource frontier into new regions in the Arctic and the East and, at the same time, reduce its reliance on European markets – that are both stagnant and hostile – by developing new markets in Asia.     

URBAN PLANNING ASPECTS OF THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF MOSCOW

A prominent analyst of Soviet agricultural developments examines the 1992 grain harvest in the former Soviet republics. Coverage includes selective attention to the effects of such factors as weather (both losses from drought and from winterkill), farmers' economic calculations (purchase prices, alternative markets, etc.), the availability of inputs, and measures undertaken at the local level to support the harvest. The assessment provided here indicates that earlier projections of a dramatically smaller 1992 grain harvest have been overstated and outlines measures that can be implemented to reduce dependency on grain imports.     

THE SOVIET METROPOLITAN HIERARCHY: REGIONALIZATION AND COMPARISON WITH THE UNITED STATES

The rapid growth of Soviet cities is converging toward a hierarchy similar to that of the United States. The numbers of aggregate populations of metropolitan centers by five size categories in the two countries are compared for growth and change from 1939 to 1976. Also, nine Soviet urban regions are identified, mapped, and correlated with comparable American groupings. Growth rates of Soviet metropolises are normalizing with less recent variation as compared to the 1939–59 period, a trend that parallels the one in the United States. Also, it appears that certain functions, such as administration and transportation, are stabilizing factors in urban growth. Governmental policies of investment in underdeveloped regions, balanced growth and diversification may be partially thwarted by five-year planning goals that have stimulated supragrowth in large cities of the South and East. However, it seems likely that increasing mobility, amenities and the expansion of consumer goods and services will produce a reversal of trends toward higher growth rates in the metropolitan centers of the West. Projections to the year 2000 suggest that Soviet metropolises will have a larger share of the national population and a more uniform growth pattern than those in the United States.     

On the Comparative Effectiveness of the Economic Structure of Regions

An important problem in insuring optimal operation of the centrally planned and state-controlled economy of the Soviet Union is to measure the efficacy of the industrial structure and productive specialization of republics and economic regions. Several measures of the efficacy of regional economies have been proposed, involving various relationships between labor productivity, the value of capital plant and equipment and the value of output. All these measures are unsatisfactory, in the author's view, and an alternate approach is suggested, using the net concept of national income produced by regions. This approach has been made possible by the recent calculation of input-output tables for republics and economic regions. The idea of using national income as a measure of regional economic efficacy was first proposed in the Soviet literature by A. Ye. Probst, whose comments appear elsewhere in the issue of Soviet Geography.     

THE NONCHERNOZEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AND PROSPECTIVE SPATIAL SHIFTS IN GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE AGRICULTURAL TRIANGLE OF THE SOVIET UNION

The Soviet program to proceed from further expansion of the grain area in the semi-arid steppe zone to intensification of graingrowing in the humid Nonchernozem Zone after decades of neglect is considered a landmark decision in the history of Soviet agriculture. If successfully carried out, the Nonchernozem program might yield by the late 1980s a grain increment equivalent to the amount now being imported by the Soviet Union for its own needs and for re-export to its allies. The implementation of the Non-chernozem program would also have consequences for regional grain-production patterns in the Soviet Union. The Nonchernozem Zone would be in a position to make a more significant contribution to the demand for grain in the industrial centers of European Russia, thus easing the pressure on the virgin lands of northern Kazakhstan and reducing the need for the present long grain hauls. Finally, a greater shift of grain production into the humid Nonchernozem would be in keeping with a program of water economies since grain output in the humid zone requires less than half of the water needed for grain production in the arid zone. The success of the Nonchernozem program is conditioned on greater attention to the development of rural infrastructure, particularly roads, which the author considers a key element in upgrading the agriculture of the region.     

THE WATER ASPECT OF THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGRICULTURE IN THE USSR

The long-term grain requirements of the growing Soviet population are calculated. On the basis of the relationship between water use and grain yields by natural soil zones of the USSR, the authors show that the amount of water needed per unit of output declines with a growth of productivity, especially in the non-chernozem zone of the Soviet Union. It is therefore concluded that greater water savings might be assured by expanding grain production in zones with an adequate supply of natural moisture rather than by the use of artificial irrigation of arid lands.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE RAILROAD: ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE AND ITS PROJECTED FREIGHT FLOWS

The idea of building the Baykal-Amur Mainline, running through East Siberia to the north of, and parallel to, the Trans-Siberian Railroad, first arose in 1932. Initial surveys of an alignment were completed in 1944, and the western and eastern extremities of the BAM were completed by the early 1950s. Surveys along the BAM route resumed in 1967 with renewed interest in a railroad that would open up new Siberian resource sites for export through Pacific seaports. After completion of the BAM, scheduled for 1983, freight traffic will consist mainly of West Siberian crude oil moving to refineries and ports of the Soviet Far East (70 to 75 percent of freight movements in ton-kilometers) followed by timber (10 to 18 percent). Coking coal from southern Yakutia to the Pacific coast for export to Japan will also be significant freight item. Eastbound freight movements will greatly exceed westbound traffic. [A previous article on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975.]     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

海湾风云的地缘政治分析

本文全面回顾分析了海湾风云中,伊科冲突和美国出兵海湾的地缘政治背景,以及苏联和阿拉伯世界基于地缘政治的考虑和选择。