SOME DATA ON CHANGES IN TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY OF EAST SIBERIA AND THE SOVIET FAR EAST IN CONNECTION WITH CONSTRUCTION OF THE BAM

The impact of the Baikal-Amur Mainline on accessibility to resource sites in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East is measured. At the present time, a little more than one-half of the developed southern portion of the region lies within 200 km of the Trans-Siberian. As a result of the construction of the BAM, nearly 75 percent of the area will be within 200 km of the nearest railroad. The gains in distance to the nearest railroad are mapped, and show a maximum gain (of 420–450 km) in an area northeast of the northern tip of Lake Baikal. Although the BAM, because of difficult terrain, is still distinguished by a high coefficient of sinuosity (compared with the great-circle distance), it does represent a gain over the present distance from the Pacific coast to points west of Lake Baikal.     

PROBLEMS OF PASSENGER MOBILITY AND ROAD TRANSPORT IN THE SOUTHERN FAR EAST REGION

Dimensions of the road transport problem in the southern Far East Economic Region (Primorskiy Kray, Amur Oblast, and Khabarovsk Kray) are outlined and some of its social and economic impacts described (for example, the inadequate levels of services provision addressed in the preceding paper). Road connectivity and passenger mobility trends are analyzed before coverage shifts to more specific challenges confronting planners: the need to (a) separate inter-city from intra-city flows in cities along major transport corridors, (b) improve road surfaces, (c) reduce travel times and regulate seasonal fluctuations in service, and (d) provide a more favorable environment for growing private automobile use (translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK).     

NEW APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CITIES OF MOSCOW OBLAST

Quantitative analysis of historical trends in city growth rates within Moscow Oblast (1926-1984) reveals two major components or city types: a group of cities with below-(oblast) average rates for each of five periods of analysis (1926-39, 1939-59, 1959-70, 1970-79, 1979-84) and a second category experiencing above-average growth until 1970, with subsequent reduction of rates below the oblast average. Further breakdown of the two major components reveals seven smaller groups, analysis of the spatial patterns of which can provide a basis for planning recommendations on the future development of the region (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

THE DYNAMICS AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF THE POPULATION OF RUSSIA IN THE ERA OF IMPERIALISM (FROM THE END OF THE 19TH CENTURY TO 1917)

The authors critically survey tsarist censuses before the October Revolution and Soviet works on historical demography, and they re-estimate population numbers, natural and mechanical increase, and internal and external migration between 1897 and 1917, as well as changes in ethnic composition. (The translation was prepared by James R. Gibson of York University, Toronto.)     

DYNAMICS OF POPULATION IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR (1959-1984)

Analysis of change in the spatial distribution of population in the Ukrainian SSR demonstrates a pronounced shift toward the east and south, and toward the major metropolitan area of Kiev and Kiev Oblast. An upsurge in city growth in the least urbanized, western Ukraine, coupled with steady, above-average urban growth in other locations, has contributed to gradual erosion of the Donets-Dnieper Region's dominance in urban population. Accelerated rates of rural population decline in western areas of highest rural population concentration has promoted a gradual equalization of the distribution of rural population (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

THE NATURE OF THE MANPOWER PROBLEM IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIBERIA

The traditional picture of the economic development in Siberia presents a formidable obstacle in the form of a manpower deficit and high labor turnover. The official policy to combat this problem has been to give priority to the development of social and cultural amenities. Substantial changes in wage differentials and other economic and non-economic benefits seem to be a measure of the past. This article presents an overview of the situation and suggests that if any public policy is to be effective, it has to combine accelerated development in the social and cultural spheres and economic and noneconomic benefits as well. Furthermore, these measures have to be more differentiated regionally and among worker categories. Any such policy would require massive investment. The question is whether Soviet society can bear this huge burden in view of more immediate needs. Another question is whether the additional investment required would be compensated by a comparable increase in the productivity of labor. In view of substantial cost increases, capital productivity is likely to decline if not compensated by a change in the calculated prices on Siberian products, especially oil and gas, which seems doubtful in view of the present international situation.     

THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

PROBLEMS OF THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN AND THE STABILITY OF ITS SHORELINE

The first of two papers on the problem of forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea evaluates factors widely believed to have been responsible for its lowering during much of the present century (including tectonic movements, climatic cycles, human activity). It concludes that previous forecasts have been inaccurate because of the failure to adequately model the complexity of processes involved, specifically the internal mechanisms of “self-regulation” of water levels. Continuation of the recent slight rise in the Caspian's level is predicted at least into the early 1990s (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

THE ORIGINS OF THE ANDRONOVO (FEDOROVKA) POPULATION OF SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA,BASED ON A MIDDLE BRONZE AGE CRANIAL SERIES FROM THE ALTAI FOREST-STEPPE ZONE

A multivariate analysis of measurements taken from Andronovo (Fedorovka) cranial samples from the forest-steppe part of the Altai has revealed certain components that are likely to have contributed to the origins of this population. One component, resembling the robust (Cro-Magnon) variety observed in many Andronovo groups, would appear to have been introduced by migrants from the Kazakhstan steppes. Another component – Mediterranean, i.e., characterized by dolichocrany and narrow face, stemmed from the pre-Andronovo Bronze Age populations of southwestern Siberia, being especially noticeable in Andronovo (Fedorovka) groups of Rudny Altai and decreasing in the eastern and northern directions. The third component, on the contrary, becomes more and more prominent as one moves northward. This component was evidently associated with the Western Siberian native peoples. Its proportion in the forest-steppe zone of the Altai was minor, while being larger in the sub-taiga regions situated to the north.     

THE GEOGRAPHY OF OCEANS AND ITS BASIC PROBLEMS

The study of oceans as a subfield of geography has gained acceptance in the Soviet Union. Some universities have introduced courses in marine geography, and geographers have participated in oceanographic research voyages. An effort is made here to define the place of a marine geography within the geographic discipline as a whole, to set the spatial limits for geographical investigations of the oceans and to suggest problem areas suitable for geographical analysis. In keeping with the Soviet dichotomy, physical and economic geographic problems are distinguished. Physical-geographic problem areas would include study of oceanic water masses; large-scale interaction between oceans and atmosphere; study of island environments, and the biogeography of oceans. Economic geographic problems would focus both on theoretical aspects, such as spatial regularities in human activities related to oceans, and on applied aspects, providing a sound basis for economic development of ocean areas.     

PROBLEMS OF THE RADIOCARBON CALENDAR AND ITS CALIBRATION

Both the growing body of literature on the tree-ring calibration of radiocarbon dates, and the variety of statistical approaches used, make it appropriate to review the basic principles involved in the construction of a calibration curve. While its ultimate validity is in part a geophysical problem, the appropriate form for the calibration function, given a specific body of data, is a statistical question centering upon the analysis of the measurement errors involved. The relationship between the calibration function and the inverse calibration function is examined, and the shortcomings of the available published calibration curves considered in the light of this examination. It is concluded that there is no reason to doubt the general principles on which the calibration is based, but a need exists for a more critical handling of the measurement data with a statistical treatment of the errors involved. The quality of the data could itself be improved by the use of replicate samples for inter-laboratory projects specifically designed to investigate the magnitude of measurement error.     

NATURAL CAUSE-AND-EFFECT RELATIONSHIPS AND THE PREDICTION OF ENDEMIC GOITER

The incidence of endemic goiter in southeast Kazakhstan, a highly goitrogenic province of the Soviet Union, is related to the geochemical setting of the region's natural areal complexes. The occurrence of endemic goiter is usually attributed simply to iodine deficiency. However other chemical elements also tend to reduce or enhance the goitrogenic properties of a particular environment. A detailed analysis of the various environments in southeast Kazakhstan shows that not all parts of the region are equally goitrogenic and that high, medium and low risk areas may be distinguished. The various natural areal complexes of different levels of goitrogenicity are mapped together with actually observed incidence of the disease. It is recommended that public health activities, such as the provision of iodized salt, be directed in particular at the high and medium risk areas.     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.