GEOGRAPHICAL PROBLEMS IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TOURISM AND RECREATION IN THE SAYAN TERRITORIAL-PRODUCTION COMPLEX

The Sayan hydroelectric station, now under construction, will give rise to a new industrial district in southern Siberia that is expected to attract a population of one million to the area by the year 2000. This development, together with the attractiveness of the region, is likely to spur the development of one of the Soviet Union's most important recreation zones in the southern portion of Krasnoyarsk Kray and adjoining Tuva ASSR. Careful planning of recreational uses of the region is urged within the framework of the regional geo-engineering system, which involves the interplay between the natural environment and the engineering structures generated by the impending economic development of the area.     

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT IN THE USSR: NEW INFORMATION ON DISTRIBUTION

Analysis of newly available data and recent newspaper reports on the corrective labor system reveals important distributional and spatial aspects to the problem of crime and its punishment in the USSR. The article supplies data on the major categories of offenses, notes the general similarity of crime rates between rural and urban areas and the significant interregional variations in overall and specific crime rates. Evidence is presented which indicates that the total crime rate in Siberia and the Far East greatly exceeds the USSR average. This is attributable to distinctive features of the region's population structure, the instability of its labor force, unsatisfactory living conditions, and the (relatively) still large number of inmates brought to corrective labor camps in Siberia from all over the country.     

PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND SE'ITLEMENT IN THE NORTHERN YENISEY REGION

A long-range regional planning forecast of economic development and settlement in the North Yenisey region of Siberia, up to the year 2000, envisages the formation of several territorial production complexes based on the development of mineral resources (the nickelcopper-platinum reserves of the Noril'sk district, aluminum raw materials, iron ore, oil and gas and graphite) and hydroelectric development (hydro stations at Osinovo, Stony Tunguska, Maygunna, Kureyka and Khantayka, and ultimately Igarka and Lower Tunguska). The basic urban centers, in addition to Noril'sk, would be Osinovo, Novoturukhansk and Igarka. Urban population is expected to increase from 220,000 in 1970 to 480,000, and rural population from 40,000 in 1970 to 300,000.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

LOCATIONAL FACTORS IN THE DECLINING INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF THE NEW YORK URBAN REGION*

This paper investigates the locational factors that contributed to the decline of the New York urban region's industries during 1972-1975. Based on the static concept of a specialization index, a dynamic comparative advantage index is constructed. A model is then formulated to test the hypothesis that regional competitive advantage (vis-à-vis the nation) is a function of relative disparities in the change of these locational factors. Regression results show that the region's competitive advantage is influenced positively by the differential rate of change in market size, by the differential profit rate before tax, and negatively by the differential rate of change in unit labor cost and in unit energy cost. The differential tax rate does not seem to affect the region's competitive advantage. Nevertheless, a progressive corporate income tax structure tends to neutralize the beneficial effects of the economies of agglomeration and the urban attraction of the region.     

Some Aspects of the Development and Location of Industry in the Central Asian Economic Region

Despite rapid industrialization since World War II, Central Asia is still far from exhausting its potential for industrial development based on abundant mineral resources, fuels and energy, and on the most favorable manpower supply of any of the Eastern regions of the USSR. The only limiting factor in economic development is water. In light of the region's resource situation, future development should focus on a diversified industrial expansion involving activities with limited water and metal needs (in the absence of a major regional iron and steel plant) or medium or high energy and labor requirements. This would include nonferrous metals, chemicals (except for those posing a water pollution problem) and expansion of the region's cotton-based production complex, ranging from irrigated cotton culture to finished fabrics.     

Questions of the Integrated Utilization of the Natural Resources of the Komi ASSR

The author views British Columbia as a typical newly developed industrial region of the advanced capitalist countries, in which stress is placed on the development of raw materials and semi-finished goods for the export market. The region's transportation, electric power, metallurgical and forest industries are reviewed in detail. High labor productivity and advanced technology are found to be typical of the development of British Columbia, whose experience is found applicable to parts of Siberia.     

Simulating Sources of Uncertainty in Policy Forecasting with a Large-Scale Regional Econometric Model

Long-term forecasts may be helpful in establishing the general framework for a region's policy agenda, and a well-structured economic model offers an opportunity to identify major policy instruments affecting a region's long-term growth. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of long-term forecasts should serve to caution policymakers in interpreting and acting upon such information. To offer perspective on this aspect of forecasts, simulations of the Pittsburgh economy are performed to the year 1995 using a large-scale regional econometric model. The forecasts are based on alternative assumptions concerning the performance of the national economy and the objective conditions characterizing key industries in the region. In this way, the model is used to identify and quantify several major sources of uncertainty in long-term regional forecasts.     

Unwritten Factors Affecting Structural Funds: The Influence of Regional Political Behaviours on the Implementation of EU Cohesion Policy

While EU regional policy has the ambitious objective of supporting lagging regions and promoting inter-regional convergence, its impact is dependent on the ability of regional policymakers to secure and use EU funding to meet the region's needs. This paper aims to show under which conditions politics has a defining influence on the distribution, allocation and utilization of structural funds (SF), specifically in Objective 1 regions. The empirical analysis focuses on the 2000–2006 programming cycle in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The results show that regions politically aligned with national governing coalitions tend to perform better in terms of received SF support and enjoy more flexibility in implementing SF. However, the influence of regional political behaviours on economic performances is very limited. The findings confirm the importance of politics in influencing SF implementation, but its limited influence on economic outcomes.     

The Political Economy of Class Compromise: Trade Unions,Capital–Labour Relations and Development in North East Brazil1

Abstract: This article investigates how capital–labour relations (encompassing processes of class formation, representation, struggle and compromise) impact on emerging regions’ developmental trajectories. It does so because much of development studies portray labour simply as an input (human capital) subordinate to more fundamental processes such as capital investment and accumulation. The paper draws on and extends insights gained from the “new working class studies” and global commodity chains literatures in order to examine evolving capital–labour relations—from relatively militant struggles to class compromise—in an emerging sector of North East Brazilian export horticulture. It identifies sources of workers’ structural and associational power and uses these to explain significant gains achieved by the region's rural trade union during the formation of the export horticulture sector. It then asks, why, despite continuing structural power, the region's trade union has entered into a class compromise with the leading employers via (a) reducing its militancy and its strategy of striking against employers to win concessions, and (b) shifting its objectives in terms of concessions sought. It speculates on the impacts of these changing class relations on the region's developmental trajectory.     

A MIXED-FREQUENCY MODEL OF REGIONAL OUTPUT*

ABSTRACT. This paper proposes a new method for estimating a monthly regional production model. The technique involves treating the region's monthly industrial output as a latent variable, which is in turn a function of capital (prosed by energy usage) and labor inputs. Annual observations on regional value added correspond to the summation of the unobservable monthly series over the 12 months, while changes in the national Industrial Production index help infer the series' month-to-month fluctuations. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter and the method of maximum likelihood. The estimates are used to compute monthly indices of regional value added for 15 individual 2-digit industries, and for the aggregate manufacturing sector in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. In a comparison of out-of-sample forecasting accuracy, the mixed-frequency model outperforms both the traditional parametric Cobb-Douglas and nonparametric Atlanta methods over the 1988–89 forecasting horizon.     

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,KNOWLEDGE FLOWS,AND INNOVATION IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. Innovation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in explaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed‐effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity.     

俄罗斯西伯利亚人口状况及其地理分析

西伯利亚人口问题一直非常尖锐,20世纪90年代以来更有不断恶化趋势。基于1989年和2002年俄罗斯人口普查资料,对西伯利亚人口状况及其动态变化进行了分析,得出了一些重要结论:1989-2002年间西伯利亚人口减少了95.9万,减少幅度达3.7%,远高于全俄1.5%的平均减幅;出生率降低、死亡率提高和人口大量迁移导致多数城市和区域人口持续减少,劳动力短缺问题日趋严重,制约了地区经济的发展;实现人口自然增长、调节人口迁移、引进合法移民乃西伯利亚人口和经济社会发展的当务之急。     

China and East Asia: An Appraisal of Regional Economic Integration

Three Taiwan-based economists evaluate regional economic integration in East Asia, using trade indicators to analyze the degree of trade concentration among East Asian nations, and employing the gravity model to identify key factors influencing bilateral trade flows among them. China is expected to play a key role in East Asia's economic development, and empirical analysis for the period 1990-2005 indicates that East Asia has already evolved into a trading block, expected to become one of three dominant blocks in the global economy. The study, which highlights the key role played by geographical distance and market size, suggests that the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) for East Asian trade will remain limited in the future. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F15, F31, O53, P33. 7 tables, 41 references.     

BASIC TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOREST INDUSTRY ALONG THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE

The zone served by the Baykal-Amur Mainline is expected ultimately to contribute roughly one-tenth of the Soviet Union's timber products, which would represent one-fourth to one-third of the freight traffic of the railroad in some segments. Total removals of roundwood are now roughly 15 million m³ in the zone to be served by the BAM, including 11 million in the inner zone (total Soviet roundwood removals now run 380–390 million m³ a year). In the foreseeable future, removals in the BAM zone are expected to reach 30 to 35 million m³, including 20 million in the inner zone. Projections for 10 logging districts suggest that most of the logging activities will be concentrated at the two extremities of the BAM—the Upper Lena district (34% of projected removals) and the Komsomol'sk district (39%). Timber processing complexes will also be concentrated in these two areas.     

RISK AND INCOME TRADEOFFS IN REGIONAL POLICY: A PORTFOLIO THEORETIC APPROACH*

ABSTRACT. Policy makers often try to raise a region's income by altering its industrial mix. However, such attempts to increase local income may have an adverse effect on the stability of the region's economy. In this paper, we develop single-, aggregate-, and multiregional portfolio models that can be used by policy makers to generate frontiers of risk/income-efficient industrial mixtures for a regional economy. These portfolio models are modified for application to the tourist industry in six regions of Spain. In practice, we find that the introduction of bounds on the magnitude of sector rebalancing has a major effect on the model solutions.     

Inter- and intraregional inequality in a spatial economy

In this paper, we develop a three-region economic geography model with workers of heterogeneous skills and mobility rates to consider how first-nature, regional differences impact both inter- and intraregional inequality. In our model, the skill premium within a region summarizes both the degree of intraregional inequality between mobile, skilled workers and immobile, unskilled workers and the interregional inequality through differences in the welfare of unskilled workers across regions. Regions with the highest skill premium have the greatest degree of intraregional inequality and provide the lowest level of welfare to unskilled workers, relative to other regions. We find that the skill premium will be higher in regions with a greater supply of unskilled labor, lower supply of housing, or are more remote. An increase in a region's housing supply or centrality will lower intraregional inequality and raise the welfare of the local, unskilled workforce. However, the magnitude of these changes are declining in the initial number of skilled workers in the region. The model is extended to consider imperfectly elastic housing supply. The larger the price elasticity of housing, the larger the range of values, such that more populated regions will host a disproportionate share of skilled workers, have lower levels of intraregional inequality, and provide higher levels of welfare for unskilled workers.     

The Japan-Australia security declaration and the changing regional security setting: wheels,webs and beyond?

The March 2007 Japan-Australia Security Declaration has garnered more than its share of hyperbole. Described variously as an historic milestone for peace or an agreement designed to encircle China; the declaration's actual strategic consequences are somewhat unclear. The purpose of this article is to provide a critical analysis of the security declaration and to assess its impact in the context of the changing patterns of the region's security setting. Some have argued that it marks a small but qualitatively significant shift in the essential features of the regional security architecture. The article assesses this claim and argues that while the declaration is of some diplomatic importance, and clearly contributes to improving cooperation in disaster relief and other humanitarian operations, it is of little strategic significance to the broader patterns of East Asian security over the short to medium term. Each side's operational constraints, their different strategic priorities, most obviously their perceptions of China, as well as the continued military predominance of the US, means that the agreement will be of little immediate significance for East Asian security. That said, it remains an important development for the respective parties and is a leading edge indicator of broader forces for change that are increasingly present in East Asia.     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.