ON THE PROBLEM OF REGULATING THE REGIME OF THE CASPIAN SEA

In an effort to stabilize the declining level of the Caspian Sea, it has been proposed that evaporation from the water surface be reduced by decreasing the size of the sea through construction of a dam in the northern portion. Data on the geology and hydrology of the Caspian Sea bed suggest that the construction of a dam might have undesirable consequences not only for the northern fisheries basin but for the sea as a whole. The findings are based on the presence of salt domes on the bottom of the northern Caspian Sea. An influx of highly mineralized subsurface waters along faults associated with the salt domes as well as leaching of salt from the structures themselves may threaten to raise the salinity of the northern fisheries basin to intolerable magnitudes. The presence of a man-made dam, in the author's view, would also interfere with the natural circulation of water, threatening contamination of deeper layers of the Caspian Sea with hydrogen sulfide, as has happened in the case of the Black Sea. [For a discussion of the Caspian Sea problem, see Soviet Geography, November 1972.]     

On the Question of Regulating the Level of the Caspian Sea

The author tries to show that the level of the Caspian Sea could be stabilized at relatively low cost at its present low level without further damage to the coastal economy. He denies the need for costly projects designed to increase the inflow into the Caspian or to separate the shallow northern section from the main body of the sea. He maintains that water gained by diverting the northern streams into the Volga basin should be used to irrigate the arid Southeast rather than to replenish the water supply of the Caspian Sea.     

THE MECHANISM OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE VOLGA DELTA AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS

The delta of the Volga River on the Caspian Sea is a highly dynamic form, whose growth has been affected by a combination of physical and human factors. Rapid delta growth in recent years has resulted in a deterioration of both physical and economic conditions (navigation problems, inadequate moisture supply, overgrowing of shallows with vegetation, loss of spawning grounds). Regression analysis yields a number of relationships between the inflow of water and suspended sediments, on the one hand, and delta growth, on the other hand, with a distinction between periods of a lowering of the Caspian Sea level and relative stability. The regression equations are used to project the likely future evolution of the delta. The only combination of conditions that is likely to limit further delta growth by the year 2000 is the stability of the Caspian Sea level and a period of average moisture supply. In all other cases, the delta is likely to continue its undesirable advance.     

THE MORPHOMETRY OF THE CASPIAN SEA BASED ON CONTEMPORARY DATA

Differences in available data on the area of the Caspian Sea are analyzed, and an effort is made to explain them. The differences are particularly pronounced in the shallower northern portion of the sea, where the drop of the sea level over the years has produced more significant changes in shoreline configuration. Greater use of space imagery is urged in determining changes in shoreline configuration, and the setting of “geographical standards” is proposed to avoid continuing confusion in published data. The technical problem of calculating the physical water area, including surface roughness produced by wave motion, is discussed.     

The Problem of Transformation and Utilization of the Water Resources of the Volga River and the Caspian Sea

Abstract

The authors review expected water requirements within the Volga-Caspian basin for industry, agriculture, fisheries and municipal uses and plans for the diversion of the streams of northern European Russia to the south to support the level of the Caspian Sea. They suggest that the diversion of part of the flow of the northern streams and isolation of the natural evaporation basin of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol will be sufficient to maintain the Caspian Sea level at ?28 meters. Previous articles on the Caspian problem appeared in Soviet Geography, September 1961, January 1962, and June 1963.     

ON THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE ARAL SEA

Although both the Caspian and Aral Sea basins are affected by fluctuations in the general moisture conditions affecting the Northern Hemisphere, the two drainage basins react differently to identical moisture changes both over the long term and over the short term. Over the short term, a shift in wet periods has been observed between the European part of the USSR, which contains the Volga basin draining into the Caspian, and western Asia, which contains the Aral Sea drainage basin. Since there is a direct relationship between general moisture conditions and level changes, the short-term level fluctuations would be heterochronous (out of phase) in the two seas. Over the long term, the comparison is complicated by the fact that Caspian drainage derives mainly from snow meltwater in the Russian plain while Aral Sea drainage derives from a combination of snow and glacier meltwater. Glacier runoff tends to increase in dry, warm periods and to decrease in wet, cold periods of glacier growth, while snow is related directly to general moisture conditions.     

Khazaria and the Terek (Landscape and Ethnos,II.)

The author analyzes a functional relationship between the historical fate of the Khazar people of the Caspian steppe and changes in the landscape produced by an alternation of wet and dry cycles and changes of the Caspian Sea level. A previous article of this series appeared in Soviet Geography, June 1964.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE CASPIAN SHORELINE UNDER THE PRESENT INCREASE IN ITS LEVEL

The authors, questioning the implications for the Caspian of a conventional model of shoreline dynamics on a flat, sandy coast upon a rise in sea level, present the findings of field observations made along the Dagestan shore during the period (post-1977) of the recent rise of the Caspian Sea level. They argue that changes in coastal morphology have varied largely according to the steepness of the offshore slope and, in general, sharply accelerated erosion was observed only on more steeply sloping sections of coast and in areas previously protected by rock benches (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

Some Conclusions about the Geography of Cities and the Urban Population of the USSR based on the Results of the 1959 Census

The author acknowledges that climatic factors and man's activity are the principal causes of fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea. But he maintains that tectonic processes, such as crustal movements, play a significant part and gives evidence of correlations between geological processes and changes in the sea level.     

CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING THEM

A second paper devoted to problems of predicting the future level of the Caspian Sea attempts, as did the first, to discount overly simplistic explanations for its nearly century-long decline and recent slight rise. Long-term climatic changes within the drainage basin of the Caspian and the resultant change in discharge of tributary rivers are proposed as the basic mechanism controlling sea level fluctuations and not, as argued in the popular press, tectonic movements, groundwater discharge variations, or the damming of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Various models for predicting future levels are compared, although no specific forecasts are made (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

Khazaria and the Caspian (Landscape and Ethnos,Part I)

The author combines the techniques of historical geography, archeology, and paleogeography to investigate the distribution of the Khazars, a people settled in the Volga delta from the sixth to tenth centuries. Data on Caspian Sea level changes, obtained in part from study of the Derbent wall, are correlated with known political events in the history of the Khazars. A history of settlement of the Volga delta is reconstructed.     

PROBLEMS OF THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN AND THE STABILITY OF ITS SHORELINE

The first of two papers on the problem of forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea evaluates factors widely believed to have been responsible for its lowering during much of the present century (including tectonic movements, climatic cycles, human activity). It concludes that previous forecasts have been inaccurate because of the failure to adequately model the complexity of processes involved, specifically the internal mechanisms of “self-regulation” of water levels. Continuation of the recent slight rise in the Caspian's level is predicted at least into the early 1990s (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].     

THE CAUSES OF WATERLEVEL CHANGES OF THE ARAL SEA IN THE HOLOCENE

A specialist in loess geomorphology and arid-zone hydrology distinguishes three categories of factors accounting for waterlevel changes in the Aral Sea. She judges the most significant to be changes in inflow resulting from changes in the course of the Amudarya, the more important of the two tributary streams. The Amudarya at various times emptied into the Sarykamysh depression, southwest of the Aral Sea, giving rise to a flow of water through the now dry Uzboy channel to the Caspian Sea. Climatic change, involving alternations of wet and dry cycles, is said to have accounted for only minor water level fluctuations, of the order of 4 to 6 m, against the background of the major fluctuations produced by the Amudarya course migrations. Human activity, notably irrigation, is regarded as having become significant only in modern times as a result of an expansion of irrigation works. The present abrupt decline in the Aral waterlevel (6 m from 1960 to 1977, including 2 m in the last three years) is attributed to the combination of a dry climatic cycle and greatly increased use of water for irrigation.     

Structural Geomorphology Investigations in the Northern Ustyurt in Connection with Oil and Gas Prospecting

Structural-geomorphic techniques are tested in the northern part of the Ustyurt plateau (Lat. 46°N Long. 56°E) between the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea in an attempt to identify local uplifts that may be potentially oil or gas bearing. The techniques include a structural-geomorphic photo interpretation, morphometric analysis of topographic maps and field mapping. Specific relationships between structure and surface relief are established in the three basic regions of the study area: the plateau, the escarpment zone and the foreland plain. In the plateau, surface relief generally directly reflects buried structures. In the plain, crustal movements are evident in the impact of abrasion and deposition processes that took place during transgressions of the nearby Caspian Sea. In the escarpment zone, both direct and inverse relationships are established between scarp promontories and embayments, on the one hand, and the plateau structure, on the other hand. Aside from some local uplifts, the investigation also reveals patterns of local and regional fault lines that often are arranged perpendicular to one another.     

The Results of Soviet Research on Desalting of Water

A review of Soviet research on saline-water conversion lists installations in operation or planned in the USSR. Long-tube vertical distillation, multistage flash distillation, vapor compression distillation, solar humidification, freezing, and electrodialysis are discussed. Significant progress is noted in the design and construction of large industrial conversion plants, notably at the Caspian Sea ports of Shevechenko, Bek-Dash, and Krasnovodsk, including a dual-purpose atomic plant with a 1-million thermal kw reactor at Shevchenko. But research and development is lagging on small-capacity desalting units suitable for small scattered consumers under desert conditions.     

PECULIARITIES IN THE FORMATION OF POPULATED PLACES ON THE SEABOARD OF THE USSR

A number of investigators have noted a movement of Soviet population toward the seacoasts, contrasting with the nation's traditional inland development. The pull of the coast has been linked to the increasing foreign trade of the USSR and to greater involvement in ocean affairs in general. The author analyzes the recent growth of maritime urban places in terms of the nation's major maritime regions: Azov-Black Sea, Baltic, Caspian, Pacific and Arctic, compares the rates of urban population growth and discusses some of the factors that account for differences in regional development.     

Elamite Karintaš and Avestan Kvirinta: Notes on the Early History of Kerend

The toponym Kerend has a long history. This study explores the appearance of Kerend in pre-modern sources, beginning with the toponym Karinta? in the late second millennium BC. Kassite, Elamite and Assyrian rivalry for control over the central western Zagros mountains is discussed and the survival of the name in later antiquity is investigated. A derivative of the name appears in Claudius Ptolemy’s Geography and in the Parthian Stations of Isidore of Charax, as well as in the late Antique Cosmographia of the Anonymous Geographer of Ravenna. A homonymous name from the area east of the Caspian Sea is also discussed, as are several unrelated names occurring in other sources (Achaemenid Elamite, Armenian).     

THE DRYING OUT OF THE ARAL SEA AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

The author examines the problem of the present state of the environment in the desert irrigation districts of southern Kazakhstan and Central Asia. A drop of the level of the Aral Sea and the formation of new land on the exposed seabed, the desiccation and desertification of the Amudarya and Syrdarya deltas caused by an intensification of agriculture have been proceeding against the background of a series of dry years. Irreversible environmental changes are having a negative impact on the socioeconomic conditions of the Aral region. The author, basing himself on the results of scientific investigations related to the Aral Sea problem, proposes a number of measures designed to moderate this negative impact.     

The Aral Sea Problem and its Solution

A hydrogeologist suggests that nine-tenths of the present stream flow into the Aral Sea can be diverted for other purposes without causing the sea to dry up. The diversion would cause the sea level to drop by 12 meters, where it would stabilize because of a greater intake of subsurface runoff resulting from an increased artesian pressure differential, and because the draining of flooded shore areas and the drying up of reed growths will make more water available through savings in evaporation and transpiration.