PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

Geographical Problems in the Iron and Steel Industry of the USSR

Technological advances in the Soviet iron and steel industry are producing changes in the locational pattern of the industry. The increasing concentration of production in large iron and steel plants requires the use of large iron-mining establishments of the order of 30 million tons of crude ore. Iron and steel plants were once viewed in the Soviet Union as oriented toward the market of a particular economic region. But the growing plant capacity and a trend toward specialization in particular types of finished products tend to expand the marketing zone of individual plants far beyond the boundaries of single economic regions. Future planning of the industry is in terms of five basic iron and steel zones: Central Russia, Urals, South, Siberia and Kazakhstan, of which the Urals and the South are fully integrated and the three others are in varying stages of formation. The declining share of coke in the blast-furnace charge tends to shift the locational pattern increasingly toward iron-ore sources, and this accounts to a certain extend for the gradual shift of iron and steel capacity toward Central Russia, with its ore reserves of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly.     

The Iron and Steel Industry of the Lipetsk Industrial Node

The Lipetsk iron and steel industry, in existence since 1899, began a major expansion program in the middle 1950's, designed to make it one of the principal steel producers of the Soviet Union. The status of the expansion program as of 1969–70 is analyzed in detail, including a rundown of ore, flux and coke sources. The use of sintered ore from near-by deposits of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly, high-temperature oxygen-enriched air blasts in the blast furnaces, large-capacity blast furnaces and steelmaking oxygen converters are expected to reduce the costs of production below existing levels in the Soviet iron and steel industry and to foster an efficient operation based on modern, automated equipment. (See also Shabad, Basic Industrial Resources of the USSR, pp. 98–101; maps, pp. 40, 96; News Notes, Soviet Geography, February 1970, p. 143; June 1972, pp. 409–410; June 1973, p. 407.)     

Problems of Optimal Location of an Industrial Complex

Reverting to the problem of location of the next major iron and steel plant, based on ore from the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly, the authors present the pro-Siberian view. They contend that advocates of a Central Russian location of such a steel plant ignore both the water and land costs in the construction of such a complex, which would tend to argue against a western location, and the effect of such a complex in promoting regional development, which would have a positive impact in the underdeveloped eastern regions. Cost calculations are presented to show that even if the Siberian plant is supplied by long-haul ore from the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly, a Siberian location would be of greater benefit to the Soviet economy as a whole than a Central Russian location. The benefit would be even more marked if the design calculations involved not just the choice of site for one iron and steel plant, but the comparative costs of an iron and steel plant (an energy-intensive industry) in Siberia and a labor-intensive industry in Central Russia. For the pro-European view in the choice of a steel-plant site, see the Gladkevich article in Soviet Geography, November 1971.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

The Kursk Magnetic Anomaly—A Promising Iron-Ore Base for the Iron and Steel Industry of the Urals (based on a territorial model of the Soviet economy)

Following a previous article prepared together with N.M. Budtolayev and Yu. G. Saushkin (see Soviet Geography, November, 1965), the author develops the theory of a territorial model of the Soviet economy in general, and proposes a section of the model relating to the future ore sources of the Soviet iron and steel industry. It is argued that the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly would provide a more economical ore source for the iron and steel mills of the Urals than the nearby iron deposits of Rudnyy, in northwest Kazakhstan, or the small, scattered, and remote iron deposits of Siberia. The cost of economic development in the east and the availability of a heavy eastbound traffic of empty freight cars are cited as factors.     

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PROBLEMS AND THE FORMATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEXES IN DEVELOPED REGIONS: THE KMA

Present and anticipated future environmental problems associated with past and projected development of the iron ore resources of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (KMA) (the most rapidly expanding production basin in the USSR) are outlined. The area's environmental problems recently have become a major concern, as a result of a heavy emphasis on accelerating production from surface mines in the basin, with few resources being allocated for land reclamation and pollution control activities (see Soviet Geography, November 1986, pp. 679-682 and May 1988, p. 537). Major attention is given to identifying development strategies mitigating further environmental disruption and experimentation with promising land reclamation and pollution control measures (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

THE PHYSICAL FACTOR IN THE SYSTEM OF CONDITIONS DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IN THE USSR

The generally accepted view that material-intensive industries tend to gravitate toward raw-material sources is analyzed in the case of the USSR. Primary processing is found to gravitate toward raw-material sources mainly in underdeveloped parts of the country. In the developed zone (European USSR, Urals, Transcaucasia), a significant spatial gap has developed between primary processing activities and raw-material sources as the original local resources become depleted and the industry must draw increasingly on long-haul raw materials. Several industrial groups are distinguished in terms of the pull of resource sites. In view of the current trend toward greater concentration of production (for cost-benefit reasons) and the growing volumes of production per establishment, primary processing establishments are usually dependent on more than one resource site, and this also tends to increase the length of haul. At the same time, the distribution of fuels, energy and water resources is assuming greater significance and tends to pull such industries as iron and steel, nonferrous metals, pulp and paper as well as petroleum refining toward the eastern areas of the USSR. The controversy over the location of a new integrated iron and steel plant based on ore from the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly is recalled.     

THE PROVENANCE OF IRON ARTEFACTS FROM MANCHING: A MULTI‐TECHNIQUE APPROACH*

Iron finds from the Celtic oppidum of Manching in southern Bavaria (Germany) are analysed in view of their possible provenance. The exceptional size and the location of Manching are usually attributed to the presence of abundant iron ores in its vicinity. After a review of previous approaches for source determination of iron artefacts, we introduce lead isotope analysis as a new approach. However, only by combining the trace element patterns of slag inclusions and iron metal with lead isotope ratios in the metal is it possible to distinguish various iron ore formations near Manching. As a result, it turns out that, indeed, the most obvious ones—namely, bog ores near the Danube—constituted the main resources for iron production at Manching. It was even possible to select one occurrence as the most likely ore source.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE RAILROAD: ITS AREA OF INFLUENCE AND ITS PROJECTED FREIGHT FLOWS

The idea of building the Baykal-Amur Mainline, running through East Siberia to the north of, and parallel to, the Trans-Siberian Railroad, first arose in 1932. Initial surveys of an alignment were completed in 1944, and the western and eastern extremities of the BAM were completed by the early 1950s. Surveys along the BAM route resumed in 1967 with renewed interest in a railroad that would open up new Siberian resource sites for export through Pacific seaports. After completion of the BAM, scheduled for 1983, freight traffic will consist mainly of West Siberian crude oil moving to refineries and ports of the Soviet Far East (70 to 75 percent of freight movements in ton-kilometers) followed by timber (10 to 18 percent). Coking coal from southern Yakutia to the Pacific coast for export to Japan will also be significant freight item. Eastbound freight movements will greatly exceed westbound traffic. [A previous article on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975.]     

STATE, CLASS AND INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL 2: THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRASILIAN STEEL INDUSTRY

This paper examines the forces underlying the development and form of the Brasilian steel industry since the 1930s. Foreign direct investment has been limited by Brasilian nationalist policies and by higher costs of steel production, but large scale, integrated plants could not be built by private capital due to insufficient resources. Thus the Brasilian steel industry combines large scale state owned plants (financed by foreign capital) and smaller scale privately owned plants. The operations of the plants are coordinated to reduce market uncertainty, permit the steel sector to advocate its own expansion plans, and delimit the spheres of public and private capital while excluding foreign commodity and productive capital. Even so, in the 1980s the steel industry in Brasil has faced a crisis of declining local demand, prompting a rapid expansion of exports.     

THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

TRACING THE RESOURCES OF IRON WORKING AT ANCIENT SAGALASSOS (SOUTH‐WEST TURKEY): A COMBINED LEAD AND STRONTIUM ISOTOPE STUDY ON IRON ARTEFACTS AND ORES*

Lead and strontium isotope analyses were performed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) on Roman to Byzantine iron artefacts and iron ores from the territory of ancient Sagalassos (south‐west Turkey), to evaluate Pb and Sr isotopes for provenance determination of ores for local iron production. It can be demonstrated that for early Roman artefacts and hematite iron ore processed in early Roman times from Sagalassos proper, as well as for magnetite placer sands and early Byzantine raw iron from the territory of the city, Sr isotopes are much less ambiguous than Pb isotopes in providing clearly coherent signatures for ore and related iron objects. Late Roman iron objects were produced from iron ores that as yet remain unidentified. Early Byzantine iron artefacts display more scatter in both their Pb and Sr isotope signatures, indicating that many different ore sources may have been used. Our study demonstrates that iron objects can be precisely analysed for their Sr isotopic composition, which, compared to Pb isotopes, appears to be a much more powerful tool for distinguishing between chronological groups and determining the provenance of raw materials.     

IS THE USSR ENTERING THE POST-MATERIALS AGE: TRENDS IN PER CAPITA PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY PRODUCTS

Trends in per capita production of basic raw materials and industrial products in the Soviet economy since 1951 are analyzed, and the stagnation, or outright decline (per population), in a number of sectors is demonstrated for that period. No single explanation is advanced for the declines, which can be attributed, in part and in specific cases, to depletion of more accessible resources and/or organizational problems (oil, timber, coal), to the effort to use materials more effectively in construction (steel, cement, wood), and to substitution of alternative sources of energy (peat, wood, and, until recently, coal).     

THE ZHELEZNOGORSK MINING NODE AS PART OF THE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY

The structural-spatial characteristics of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly, the iron-mining district of Central Russia, are discussed in terms of stages of development, environmental impacts and the technological cycles (energy and production cycles) making up the industrial complex. The structure and problems of development of the Zheleznogorsk industrial node, one of the mining centers, are analyzed in particular detail. (Previous articles by the author on the KMA mining industry appeared in Soviet Geography, April 1975, December 1976, May 1979, and other contributions are included in the present issue.)     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN BLOOMERY SMELTING SLAG OF THE IRON AGE AND ROMANO‐BRITISH PERIODS*

This study highlights regional variation in the composition of iron‐smelting slag produced in England prior to the medieval period and attempts to link slag composition to the type of ore smelted. For many sites, the slag compositions were consistent with the use of limonite ore, but there is evidence that siderite ore was smelted at sites in Sussex in the late Iron Age/Romano‐British periods. A compositional comparison of smelting slags and slag inclusions in Iron Age currency bars, using data from Hedges and Salter (1979 ), illustrates the potential of smelting slag compositional data in provenance studies of early iron objects.     

PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRODUCTION AND SE'ITLEMENT IN THE NORTHERN YENISEY REGION

A long-range regional planning forecast of economic development and settlement in the North Yenisey region of Siberia, up to the year 2000, envisages the formation of several territorial production complexes based on the development of mineral resources (the nickelcopper-platinum reserves of the Noril'sk district, aluminum raw materials, iron ore, oil and gas and graphite) and hydroelectric development (hydro stations at Osinovo, Stony Tunguska, Maygunna, Kureyka and Khantayka, and ultimately Igarka and Lower Tunguska). The basic urban centers, in addition to Noril'sk, would be Osinovo, Novoturukhansk and Igarka. Urban population is expected to increase from 220,000 in 1970 to 480,000, and rural population from 40,000 in 1970 to 300,000.     

AN APPRAISAL OF THE SOVIET CONCEPT OF THE TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEX

The paper, contributing to one of the research goals of the Commission on Industrial Systems, International Geographical Union, provides an appraisal of the Soviet approach to spatial organization of the economy known as the territorial production complex. The authors review the genesis of the concept, definitional criteria, and its practical formation and operation, making occasional comparison with Western approaches to spatial economic organization. An unresolved problem for Soviet planners is the provision of a coordinating administrative authority for each territorial complex that would integrate the activities of individual industrial ministries involved in the creation of the complex; the current thinking of Soviet planners is illuminated by a recent statement appended to the paper. (For a previous Western view of Soviet regional development models, see G. A. Huzinec in Soviet Geography, October 1976.)     

MODERNIZATION OF SOVIET AGRICULTURAL MACHINE BUILDING: THE EXAMPLE OF TRACTOR PRODUCTION

The Soviet agricultural equipment industry produces over 40 percent of the world's tractors. It also is a major world producer of combines and other agricultural equipment. Nevertheless, almost three-fourths of the 33 million Soviet agricultural workers are classified as manual laborers. This paper focuses on how the industry is being modernized to address this problem, and how this effort fits into the overall program of economic restructuring. It also briefly examines some of the spatial dimensions of agricultural machinery production, including the distribution of tractor assembly plants within the country and some of their locational factors.     

SOVIET ASIAN-PACIFIC TRADE AND THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

During the 1970s and early 1980s it was generally accepted, by both Soviet and Western specialists, that in the Soviet Far East the expansion of exports to the nations of the Pacific Basin offered a solution to the region's economic problems. However, recent policy statements suggest the rejection of this export-led development strategy. This study examines the changing structure and dynamics of Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region. At present, for a combination of economic and political reasons, Soviet trade with the Asian-Pacific region is dominated by exports of machinery and equipment and petroleum to the socialist nations of the region, inasmuch as Japanese demand for Soviet natural resources is stagnant. Therefore, because of the resource orientation of the Far Eastern economy, contemporary trade relations do not favor the expansion of the Soviet Far Eastern export base. Consequently, the future role of the region in the national economic system will be determined largely by the availability of domestic capital investment funds.