The determinants of labor migration in Egypt

The factors which affect individual decisions with regard to geographic movement in Egypt are examined and the magnitude in which each factor exerts its influence on aggregate geographic labor supply adjustments is estimated. The spatial unit used in the study is the administrative region, of which there are 25. No effort is made to esimate the impact which migration has had on the origin or destination region. The migrant will presumably choose that destination which, given his information, the migrant thinks will be best. The model which is employed attempts to explain gross interregional migration without the explicit introduction of an individual decision function. Rather, migration is related to certain aggregate proxy variables. Among the independent variables employed in the analysis are (origin and destination) income, education, urbanization, and population. The other explanatory variable used is the distance between region i and region j. The migration measure employed refers to cumulative male migration which occurred prior to 1960; the independent variables are defined for a given point in time (1960). The independent variables explain a reasonably large percentage of the variance in migration between regions in Egypt. All variables were significant at the 5% level or better. The findings indicate that distance acts as an important impediment to migration. Migration is away from low wage and toward high wage regions, which may have contributed to a narrowing of regional wage differentials. Migrants are attracted to regions which have large populations and to regions which have a large percentage of urban to total population. A tendency exists for migrants to come from regions with large populations. There is also some tendency for migrants to come from regions which have a relatively large urban population. Migrants do not appear to come from regions with high educational levels.     

Migration Under Uncertainty: “Try Your Luck” or “Wait and See”

Two types of uncertainty enter into the migration decision. First, current conditions in the destination region may not be observable. Second, the future evolution of conditions in both the origin and destination regions may be unknown. The first type of uncertainty can encourage speculative or “try your luck” migration, whereas uncertainty about the future acts in the opposite direction, deterring relocation. This paper presents a dynamic optimizing model of migration that incorporates both types of uncertainty. The model shows that in equilibrium uncertainty about the future is likely to be more important than uncertainty about present conditions in the decision to relocate.     

A HIERARCHICAL REGIONALIZATION OF RSFSR ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS USING 1966–69 MIGRATION DATA

The coefficients of migration intensity calculated by Rybakovskiy (see preceding article) are used to derive a system of migration regions, which are defined as groups of administrative units with maximum internal interaction and a minimum flow across migration-defining boundaries. The technique is based on the assumption that gross migration flows may provide a reasonably objective basis for determining practical boundaries within a national territory. The technique yields a hierarchy of regionalizations that is then compared with the official Soviet system of major economic regions. None of the 10 major economic regions in their entirety turn out to conform to strong migration components, although one migration cluster, focused on the Northwest, corresponds fairly closely to the official Northwest region. For the rest, administrative units of the Far East and Siberia are grouped together in one migration cluster, as are the southern Volga region and the North Caucasus. Units of the Central [Industrial] region also tend to cluster with those of the Central Chernozem region. However, the most tightly connected migration dyads and triads are found to be wholly contained within the official economic regions, so that the most highly intensive migration streams are found not to cross the boundaries between the official regions. (The study was supported by a grant of the National Science Foundation for work on applications of graph—theoretic clustering and transaction flow analysis in geography and regional science.)     

Migration and the metropolis: recent research on the causes of migration to southeast England

"The paper focuses on one main issue: the relative importance of housing and labour market forces in explaining the volume and nature of migration to the southeast region [of England]." The author reviews recent literature in an attempt to determine "why people migrated to [and from] the southeast...[and] what the consequences of these in-migration and out-migration streams were for their respective origin and destination regions."     

MODELING SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN SPATIAL INTERACTION DATA: AN APPLICATION TO PATENT CITATION DATA IN THE EUROPEAN UNION*

ABSTRACT Spatial interaction models of the gravity type are widely used to model origin–destination flows. They draw attention to three types of variables to explain variation in spatial interactions across geographic space: variables that characterize an origin region of a flow, variables that characterize a destination region of a flow, and finally variables that measure the separation between origin and destination regions. This paper outlines and compares two approaches, the spatial econometric and the eigenfunction‐based spatial filtering approach, to deal with the issue of spatial autocorrelation among flow residuals. An example using patent citation data that capture knowledge flows across 112 European regions serves to illustrate the application and the comparison of the two approaches.     

Disaggregate Migration Behavior and the Volume of Interregional Migration

Nested multinomial logit models are used to investigate migration behavior during the 1971–74 period for a large sample of the population of Ecuador. The nested form of the model makes it possible to test hypotheses about the importance of destination characteristics in conditioning the odds for out-migration. Our empirical results indicate that the odds for migration from each origin are conditioned by the expected utilities of the available set of destinations, as well as characteristics of the origins and the personal characteristics of potential migrants. The association between destination characteristics and the frequency of out-migration allows the total volumes of migration to be adjusted to interregional differences in place-specific utilities.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

INTERPRETING SPATIAL ECONOMETRIC ORIGIN‐DESTINATION FLOW MODELS

Spatial interaction or gravity models have been used to model flows that take many forms, for example population migration, commodity flows, traffic flows, all of which reflect movements between origin and destination regions. We focus on how to interpret estimates from spatial autoregressive extensions to the conventional regression‐based gravity models that relax the assumption of independence between flows. These models proposed by LeSage and Pace ( 2008 , 2009 ) define spatial dependence involving flows between regions. We show how to calculate partial derivative expressions for these models that can be used to quantify these various types of effect that arise from changes in the characteristics/explanatory variables of the model.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

ABSORPTIVE CAPACITY,KNOWLEDGE FLOWS,AND INNOVATION IN U.S. METROPOLITAN AREAS

High growth and progressive regions possess a culture that promotes innovation. Innovation depends on a region's ability to use its own existing knowledge and knowledge generated elsewhere. This paper demonstrates the importance of the ability to absorb external knowledge in explaining innovation productivity for 106 U.S. metropolitan areas. Using a spatial interaction model of patent citation flows with origin and destination dependence, the destination fixed‐effects coefficients provides a measure of a region's absorptive capacity. We identify local conditions that shape a region's absorptive capacity and demonstrate it has a positive and significant impact on innovation productivity.     

深圳与全国区域经济联系的测度及分析——基于人口迁移模型的研究

深圳工业化过程中同全国各省区建立起了资金、技术、市场以及人才(包括劳动力)方面的广泛联系。本文基于外来人口指标,构建了深圳户籍人口迁移模型,并加以测度及分析,从人口迁移角度得出以下结论:首先,深圳同全国各省区经济联系强度与两地的人口规模成正比;其次,与两地的交通距离成反比;第三,深圳与全国的经济联系呈辐射状的圈层结构;第四,外来户籍人口数与两地收入差距相关性不明显。进而分析了形成这种联系格局的其他影响因素,并对深圳加强与全国区域经济联系提出政策建议。     

Tourism destination zoning in mountain regions: a consumer-based approach

This paper puts into question the conventional way of delineating tourism destination borders in terms of taken-for-granted administrative boundaries. Despite the fact that the literature on destination boundaries advocates for conceptual frameworks where customers’ consumption patterns play a more fundamental role, instances of actual attempts of structuring tourism geographies into ‘new tourism areas’ are scant, and instances of zoning on the basis of visitors’ consumption patterns are absent. A method for identifying alternative and more effective consumption-based tourism zones that combines geographical information system and hierarchical cluster analysis techniques, and that relies on time distances between attractions, is thus proposed, and implemented in the case of the Pyrenees mountain region. As a result the region is restructured into nine new tourism zones, which, compared to the original destinations, are more uniform in size and have a higher correlation index between attractiveness and accommodation intensity; they also have different levels of cross-border intensity and are very similar to historical regions; and the more they differ from the original destinations the higher their attractiveness, which supports the effectiveness of the new zoning technique. Four types of tourism zones ranging from higher to lower tourism intensity are also identified.     

Impact of Characteristics of Origin and Destination Provinces on Migration: 1995–2000

During the second half of the twentieth century, internal migration in Turkey played an important role in the redistribution of the population, the concentration of capital in major cities, and the expansion and restructuring of metropolitan areas. To be able to explain the results of this restructuring process, it is important to investigate the provincial differences in migration determinants. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the characteristics of origin and destination provinces and the distances between them on internal migration at the end of the twentieth century in Turkey using global and local forms of regression analysis. Therefore, there are two main parts of the study. The first part includes analyzing the in-migration globally. Second, the spatial distribution of the out-migration with respect to determinants among all the provinces of Turkey is investigated. According to the results, in-migrants are correlated with the characteristics of provinces such as industrial employment, service sector employment and number of university students. Out-migration is investigated for each province according to the aforementioned characteristics of the destination provinces and the distances between them. The results of the study reveal that there are locally varying relationships in out-migration in Turkey.     

中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析

利用2010年第六次人口普查数据,对我国人口迁移的特征及其影响因素进行研究。首先分析了包括年龄、性别、受教育程度和职业分布等在内的迁移人群的社会经济特征,继而从迁移原因、迁移人口的城乡分布、迁移时间、迁移类型与属性的交叉分析等方面探讨了人口迁移的类型学特征。引入就业可达性概念,分析了人口迁移率的空间格局、就业可达性与人口迁移率的空间匹配关系以及人口迁移流的空间格局,发现通过就业可达性格局可以很好地解释人口迁移率的分布。最后,采取多元线性回归技术研究了人口迁移的影响因素,结果表明,迁入地城镇居民收入与迁移率呈正相关关系,而迁出地城镇收入、迁入地的科技文化水平、迁移距离和迁入地农村收入则与迁移率呈负相关关系。     

Interregional Migration Modeling via Entropy and Information Theory

In attempting to model gross migration flows, as distinct from net flows, entropy and information theory models supplement those from the demographic tradition. However, clear differences exist between these two classes, including the type of origin and destination information which needs to be supplied, the relationship between the overall decision to migrate and the conditional choice of destination, the role of behavioral variables other than distance, and the expected predictive performance. In this paper, an enhanced interregional migration model is introduced which attempts a further integration of both the above classes. A linear version of the model is used for exploratory data analysis on a large Australian population census data set. Several alternative hypotheses are then tested with the general model. Some guidelines are also indicated toward developing a fully dynamic version of the model as well as a formal hierarchical framework.     

A Conditional Logit Approach to U.S. State-to-State Migration

This paper uses a conditional logit approach to study interstate migration in the United States for each of eleven years, from 1986–1987 to 1996–1997. We test substantive hypotheses regarding migration in the United States and demonstrate the richness of the conditional logit approach in studies of place-to-place migration. We investigate migration responses to relative economic opportunities (unemployment rate, per capita income) and the associated costs of moving (distance between origin and destination and its square). We also investigate how noneconomic factors, such as amenities, affect migration between states through a state fixed effect. Finally, we study the magnitude of unmeasured costs associated with a particular migration. The conditional logit model also allows us to compute various trade-off and other values that are of interest in migration analysis.     

Immigration Responses to Global Change in Asia: a Review

There has been a parametric increase in the scale and complexity of global international migration in the last fifteen years. Asia has been prominent in this change with countries in the region being important sources and destinations of migrants. This paper summarises the main developments which are occurring in south‐north migration, student migration, forced migration, north‐north migration and international labour migration. In the transformation of international population movement in the region a most striking feature is the strong pattern of circularity in movement and the networks which are established between origin and destination. It is argued that several global changes have been instrumental in these changes. These include the three ‘Ds’: demography, development and democracy. It is shown that increasing gradients of difference between nations in the pattern of growth (or lack of it), in the workforce, in income and poverty levels and in patterns of governance, have been important drivers of the migration. Moreover they are likely to increase in their impact over the next two decades. In addition, the impact of global environmental change on migration is considered, as are the effects of proliferating social networks and the global migration industry.     

Migration and the location of MNE activities: Evidence from Italian provinces

We investigate the migration-inward foreign direct investment (FDI) nexus in narrow geographies. A novel two-stage empirical strategy allows us to investigate the role of migration as a determinant of multinational enterprises (MNEs) location choices and unpick heterogeneity in foreign investors' preferences towards the presence of migrants in the host location. This allows us to shed light on the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms linking migration and inward FDI. Relying on 1113 greenfield investments by 895 MNEs in Italian NUTS3 regions over 2003–2015, we find that immigrants from the country of origin of the investor exert a positive but highly heterogeneous effect on MNE location choices. Investors are more sensitive to the presence of migrants from their country of origin when they lack experience in the destination country (first-time investors) and when their investments concern market-access or business-services (downstream) activities. This is consistent with the view that migrants act as information brokers that bridge the fixed costs of international business activities.     

Early Chinese Migrants to Australia: A Critique of the Sojourner Narrative on Nineteenth-century Chinese Migration to British Colonies

This paper critically assesses the issues surrounding nineteenth-century Chinese migration to British colonies, especially Australia. The issues discussed in the paper include the origin of the term “sojourner” and its relationship to Western colonialism, and the origin of the term huaqiao (overseas Chinese) and its relationship to Chinese nationalism. By being critical of the narrative of the “sojourner” for its cultural essentialist approach to Chinese migration, the paper highlights two important aspects of Chinese migration patterns and behaviour that are often neglected by the sojourner narrative: socioeconomic circumstances at the origin of migration and Western colonialism at the destination of migration. The paper argues that the Chinese publications by the migrants and what happened in Hong Kong at that time demonstrate the consequences of the combination of these two aspects of history. The paper finally observes that the little understood behaviour of the Chinese peasantry migrants appears to be post-modern and transnational.     

A place in the sun? Discursive constructions of positive outcomes in post-migration stories in the Algarve

This study argues for more comparative research between seemingly different migrant groups, bringing a new focus on intra-European migration in Portugal by examining and comparing the reasons why migrants from different geographical origins choose to settle in the tourism-based Algarve region. Drawing on data collected from a questionnaire survey and interviews, the study first compares the profiles of two apparently distinct migrant groups – Northern and Eastern Europeans – and goes on to explore their discursive representations of migration experiences. Findings reveal that despite differences in initial motivations for moving to the Algarve, there are similarities between the two groups in terms of what leads them to settle in the region. Among both groups there is a high level of positive place-identity, suggesting that the specific context of the destination place plays a significant role in positive post-migration outcomes, something which is often overlooked in migration studies. Furthermore, the lived and perceived lifestyle affordances of the destination place, especially when discursively compared with the place and lifestyle left behind, are flagged by both groups and lend support to the idea that the role of lifestyle in migration has a wider significance than is usually credited.