Problems in the Evolution of Urban Agglomerations

Large urban agglomerations, which have been viewed as undesirable by some authors, are described as legitimate and efficient forms of economic organization and settlement in a modern industrial society. A number of processes in the Soviet economy tend to foster the development of agglomerations; however, the trend toward agglomerations in the USSR is still at a very early stage compared, say, with the United States. If agglomerations are defined on the basis of a central city of 250,000 or more, the USSR had 75 agglomerations in 1970 compared with 240 standard metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. In contrast to the United States, where suburban development has outstripped central-city growth, three-fourths of the population of Soviet agglomerations is concentrated in central cities. In the author's view, control of the evolution of agglomerations should not be designed merely to curb big-city growth, but to foster the development of these urban clusters within the limitations of environmental constraints.     

The Conception of a Unified System of Settlement and the Planned Regulation of city Growth in the USSR

A unified system of settlement, defined as an interrelated network of places that is regulated for the benefit of society, is viewed as the most effective approach to overcoming socio-economic differences between town and countryside. Such a settlement system is viewed as ultimately replacing the present settlement patterns ranging from large urban agglomerations at one extreme to small rural places without adequate services at the other extreme. The unified settlement system is expected to insure roughly equivalent living and working conditions for all people within such a system. Some of the recent changes in Soviet settlement patterns are viewed as steps in that direction: an expansion of the network of large cities in connection with the economic development of new regions; the policy of industrializing small towns bypassed by the previous development of industry; the growing practice of establishing research organizations and branch plants in small towns to foster their development; the mechanization and industrialization of animal husbandry; the improvement of rural bus lines, providing access to service centers.     

Gibrat Revisited: An Urban Growth Model Incorporating Spatial Interaction and Innovation Cycles. 再评吉尔布瑞特：顾及空间相互作用和创新周期的城市增长模型

We designed a geographical model for simulating the distribution of urban growth in systems of cities. The model incorporates the hierarchical and spatial diffusion of innovation cycles through gravitational interactions within a set of cities. Using theoretical simulations, we demonstrate that this model is able to reproduce the observed properties of urban systems for the log‐normal distribution of city sizes as well as the observed distribution of growth rates. Our experimentation was performed on a large harmonized historical database that includes a few hundred French urban agglomerations between 1831 and 1999 (Pumain‐INED database). Both spatial interaction and innovation cycles are necessary ingredients to explain the evolution of urban hierarchies. We suggest that Gibrat's generic stochastic growth model based on independent entities should be replaced by a more relevant model of spatially and temporally interdependent geographical entities.     

长江中游城市群空间结构的经济绩效影响研究

近年来,城市群成为我国新型城镇化的空间主体,研究城市群空间结构具有重要意义。但现有文献大多从人口维度对城市群空间结构进行分析,缺乏多维视角,其结论的参考价值有限。本文以长江中游城市群为研究对象,运用2006-2015年长江中游城市群内部三大城市群的面板数据,通过位序规模法则以及空间基尼系数,从人口与产业两方面对城市群空间结构进行测度,并进一步研究了城市群空间结构对其经济绩效的影响。结果表明,在控制了其他影响因素之后,人口呈多中心分布,产业呈单中心分布对长江中游城市群的经济绩效有显著的促进作用;资本投入、基础设施建设、政府干预、产业结构和人口规模均是影响长江中游城市群经济绩效的关键因素。未来长江中游城市群可运用人口引导产业流动,以推进多中心的发展进程。     

关中、中原、山东半岛三城市群产业结构与分工的比较研究

采用区位商、相对专业化指数和相对多样化指数等指标定量分析了关中、中原、山东半岛三城市群的产业结构、专门化和多样化,并考察了它们与城市群发展之间的关系。通过指标计算与回归分析发现,目前三城市群总体上,相对全国而言的偏高的产业专门化和偏低的多样化,不利于城市群的发育;沿海和内地城市群的产业在发展动力方面存在着差异,沿海对产业多样化较敏感,而内陆则不显著;产业专门化不利于城市群发展,而多样化对城市群发展有一定的正向作用,但短期内作用并不明显。     

基于特色产业簇群的城市群空间结构优化研究

城市群在区域经济社会发展中的作用越来越重要。阐述了产业簇群理论、层域理论、空间相互作用理论和生态学理论等城市群空间结构优化依据。深入分析了特色产业簇群视角的城市群空间结构演变过程。构建了全球、国家和区域等不同尺度的廊道组团网络化城市群空间结构优化模式。最后,作者提出了思想观念创新、市场一体化建设、城乡统筹协调发展、特色产业簇群培育等城市群空间结构优化路径等。     

中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的定量模拟与验证

在城市群的形成发育过程中，伴随着城市群内部文化、旅游、科技产业资源优化再配置和协同集聚效应的共同作用，城市群“文化—旅游—科技”产业融合发展水平表现为随时间序列呈指数式增长的攀升态势。本文通过对城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的基本原理进行分析，建立相关数理模型得到几何表达式；继而构建城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展的评价指标体系，运用引入时间调整系数改进的耦合协调度模型，计算得到中国城市群及所辖城市的产业融合发展水平并进行时空演化分析；最后使用模拟验证的方法对中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律进行拟合验证，探究中国城市群的产业融合发展路径。     

POPULATION GEOGRAPHY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC PLANNING

Population geographers are urged to get involved in the program of socio-economic planning that is expected to supplement the present economic planning process in the Soviet Union. So far socio-economic plans have been drawn up only for a few large cities like Moscow, Leningrad and Sverdlovsk. In general, there is a need for integrating the social planning process with purely economic planning, and to supplement the present sectoral planning system with an integrated system of spatial planning entities. At the present time, city and regional plans are derived by simply collating sectoral data at the city and regional level rather than by a separate integrated spatial planning procedure. A system of intra-oblast regions, or okrugs, numbering perhaps 500 or more, is recommended as a new level suitable both for government administration and for socio-economic planning.     

新国家空间理论视角下城市群的国家空间选择性研究

基于新国家空间理论,将城市群置于社会经济转型宏观背景下,分析其空间选择的国家空间项目与国家空间策略,并初步探讨了其空间效应。城市群作为目前国家空间选择性的具体形式,其产生背景、依据以及生产策略体现了国家空间选择性内涵与演变路径,是国家应对城市企业主义危机采取的一种新型城市与区域治理形式。在国家空间项目及其策略的支持下,城市群享有优先于其它地区发展的特权并实现经济快速发展,从而培育地方增长极并推动区域协调发展。然而,城市群的空间选择并未改变城市企业主义的逻辑而是将其转移到了区域尺度,并且存在城市间竞争激烈等一系列问题,亟待与其它空间项目与策略的配套实施以实现区域崛起并提高国家竞争力。     

城市群对外服务功能量化解析——以山东半岛、中原和关中三城市群为例

城市流强度描述了城市对外联系的强弱。是表征城市对外服务功能的量化指标。三个省份的实证检验明显地揭示出城市流与城市中心性具有特别强的相关性。本文以山东半岛、中原和关中城市群为研究区域,通过城市流强度的计算与结构的分析,从城市流视角探讨城市群发展演化机理,揭示出城市群空间结构由简单的单核心结构到复杂的多核心结构的演化过程。文章根据城市流大小和及其产业分布情况,分析了城市群及其中心城市的二、三产业城市流强度与结构,得出城市群整体的对外服务特征,并据此提出改善和提高城市对外服务功能的措施。     

长江三角洲和珠江三角洲城市群职能特征及其分析

城市群职能在很大程度上反映了城市群在区域发展中所起的作用、地位和分工状况,体现着城市群的辐射力和影响力。城市群的职能特征是对城市群职能的综合概括,有利于从整体上把握城市群的发展状态。笔者运用Morre回归分析法原理和因子分析方法,通过对长江三角洲城市群和珠江三角洲城市群职能主因子的解析,将它们的职能特征分别归结为:行政中枢和教育文化福利事业职能是长江三角洲城市群最主要的职能,科研技术和社会服务职能、交通运输和商业贸易金融职能是其比较突出的职能;制造业职能是珠江三角洲城市群的最主要职能,物流与交通枢纽职能,商业贸易职能、科教文化事业职能是其比较突出的职能。笔者围绕它们职能特征进行对比分析,以揭示它们的共同特征和主要差异,同时从它们的自然条件、地理区位、历史基础、文化传统、形成机制以及发展状况等方面展开成因分析。最后,讨论了它们的职能发展态势。     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE SETTLEMENT SYSTEM IN THE LITHUANIAN SSR: RESULTS,PROBLEMS, AND PROSPECTS

The authors analyze the factors, results, problems, and prospects of the development of a system of settlement in the Lithuanian SSR, a laboratory of sorts for settlement policy in the Soviet Union. Particular attention is devoted to the formation of an inter-rayon settlement system integrating urban and rural settlements. Several methodological and conceptual approaches to the study of settlement systems are examined in this context. (Translated by Andrew R. Bond.)     

基于中部地区崛起的城市群整合发展

为协调区域发展,实现经济持续增长,国家作出了"中部地区崛起"这一重大决策。中部6省分别拥有中原城市群、武汉城市圈、长株潭城市群、环鄱阳湖城市群、皖江城市带和太原城市圈等6个城市群,城市群的整合发展在推动中部崛起进程中发挥着越来越突出的主导作用。在对中部地区城市群的现实基础与综合实力进行分析、评价的基础上,提出了基于中部崛起的城市群整合发展的总体意向和要解决的关键问题。整合发展的总体框架为:以武汉城市圈为核心增长板块,中原城市群和长株潭城市群为北、南牵引增长版块,沿交通大动脉京广铁路和长江黄金水道构筑两条南北、东西向城市群发展核心轴带,6个城市群并力互推,形成纵贯中部地区的"倒Y"字形发展格局。     

A STRATEGY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SETTLEMENT BSf THE USSR; AIMS,PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

A General Program of Settlement in the USSR, worked out by the Central Urban Planning Institute, envisages a long-term evolution of settlement that would help ameliorate the quality of life, insure industrial development of small and middle-size towns and help protect the environment. Two alternative strategies are envisaged: (1) an extrapolative strategy that projects long-term trends on the basis of past experiences and would enhance agglomerative processes in Soviet settlement; (2) a normative, goal-directed strategy that would seek to foster the evolution of planned and regulated systems of interconnected urban and rural places, and would gradually transform the present agglomerations along the lines of such normative systems. The prospective distribution of settlement under both strategies is mapped. Under the extrapolative strategy, the urban population share in areas with agglomerated forms of settlement would reach nearly 70 percent over the forecast period compared with 44 percent in 1970. The normative, goal-directed strategy would yield 60 large interconnected urban-rural systems, centered on the country's largest cities and accounting for 53 percent of the total population; 170 middle-size systems, centered on moderately large cities and including 26 percent of the population; and 325 small systems, centered on small and middle-size towns and including 14 percent of the population. About 7 percent of the population would remain outside the systemic structure.     

Some Aspects of the Formation of Urban Settlement Patterns (Illustrated by the Tatar ASSR,Bashkir ASSR,and Kuybyshev Oblast)

Using the example of the Soviet Union's principal oil-producing region between the Middle Volga and the Urals, the authors identify systems of urban settlement and classify urban places in terms of their situation within systems of settlement. The situation of a place within a system is used as a criterion for determining whether future industrial growth of that place should be stimulated or restricted. A related article by one of the authors, F. M. Listengurt, appeared in Soviet Geography, October 1965.     

基于居民出行大数据的我国都市圈识别及其分布格局

都市圈是大城市发展到一定阶段的产物,当前都市圈空间范围界定还存在争议,本文梳理了都市圈的概念和内涵,采用手机信令出行数据识别了全国都市圈的空间分布格局。分析发现,我国大部分都市圈仍处于发育阶段,当出行率阈值为 1% 时全国识别出 27个都市圈。都市圈的分布格局与经济发展水平密切相关,经济发达地区的都市圈数量多、分布密集,如东部沿海和城市群地区。中心城市的人口和经济规模,以及圈域出行距离影响了都市圈的空间范围和圈内联系程度,圈域出行规模与中心城市人口规模呈正相关,外围城市向中心城市的出行率与中心城市经济首位度呈正相关,且符合距离衰减规律。     

复合生态系统下城市高质量发展时空演化及驱动因素研究——以黄河流域7大城市群为例

基于复合生态系统理论，构建高质量发展评价体系，考察了2010—2018年黄河流域城市群高质量发展时空演化特征与驱动因素，结果表明：①城市群高质量发展呈“下游领先、中游振兴、上游落后”的空间特征，经济发展水平与社会民生低下是首要制约因素。②高质量发展水平趋于收敛，但区域差异显著，资源环境促进高质量发展趋同。③高质量发展耦合逐年攀升，协调度下降趋势明显，东西非均衡化特征突出。④高质量发展的空间差异性由多因子共同作用，其中科技创新是核心驱动因子。     

中国城市群发育与规划适配性的时空演变研究

以中国19个城市群及全国296个地级以上城市为研究对象,通过收集2010—2019年中3个年份的相关数据,基于辐射场强模型,在识别城市群发育格局的基础上,将城市群发育情况与政府部门出台的城市群规划进行比较,归纳城市群发育与规划之间适配性的现状及时空演变规律。结果表明：2010—2019年,城市结节性指数具有与行政级别关系密切的梯度特征,少数国家级、区域级城市群在规划期内辐射扩散效果一般;总体来看,城市群发育与规划的适配性呈“东—中—西”依次减弱的空间格局,城市群发育范围虽呈扩张态势,但规划的城市群中仅有9个城市群被识别出来,其余规划的城市群仍不足以成为城市群;具体来看,区域差异明显的问题仍旧突出,识别出的城市群适配性虽逐年增强,但城市群核心城市发展、城市群发育等级、范围内城市数量等方面与城市群规划的适配性较差,具有参差不齐的特征。     

NODAL ELEMENTS OF REGIONAL SUPPORT FRAMEWORKS FOR SETTLEMENT

The author extends his earlier work on the concept of a support framework for settlement (i.e., interconnected linear and nodal elements supporting the activities and needs of population within the settlement system), developed initially for the Caucasus region, to the entire country. A five-level hierarchy of urban nodes, ranging from highly developed agglomerations to small and medium-sized cities, is proposed, which is used to analyze the level of urban support provided in the major economic regions of the USSR. (Translated by Jay Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005.)