A Flexible Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Interregional Input–Output Accounts*

Abstract. This study implements and tests a mathematical programming model to estimate interregional, interindustry transaction flows in a national system of economic regions based on an interregional accounting framework and initial information of interregional shipments. A national input–output (IO) table, regional data on gross output, value‐added, exports, imports, and final demand at sector level are used as inputs to generate an interregional IO account that reconciles regional economic statistics and interregional transaction data. The model is tested using data from a multiregional global IO database and shows remarkable capacity to discover true interregional trade patterns from highly distorted initial estimates.     

区域经济联系测度方法述评

区域研究是地理学的核心之一。区域经济联系测度是区域研究的焦点。在系统总结区域经济联系测度的理论与方法的基础上,本文认为区域经济联系测度一般依循尺度确定-区域划分-区域联系测度的路径;测度区域经济联系的主要指标有可达性、经济影响范围、经济联系强度、经济隶属度等。城市在区域网络中的作用、位置是区域经济联系测度的重点。通过区域经济联系强度的测度,有助于区域和城市发展定位,并指导规划。近年来城市化、信息化、全球化的快速发展对区域经济联系的测度提出了新的挑战,需要综合不同的方法或发展新方法来应对。     

ESTIMATING INTERREGIONAL UTILITY DIFFERENTIALS*

ABSTRACT The major objective of this paper is to estimate regional utility levels based on interregional migration data. We first revealed three stylized facts concerning migration behavior by examining long‐term Japanese data on interregional migration. We then uncovered inconsistency between net migration and utility differential in the presence of distance‐related migration costs. Based on the stylized facts and the inconsistency problem, we formulated an operational model and estimated interregional utility differentials. We showed that the interregional utility differentials converged until the late 1970s. We also showed that the utility estimates are highly correlated with the per capita real income. We also applied the model to interregional migration data in the United States and Canada and confirmed the model's validity.     

Interregional Wage Disparities, Relocation Costs, and Labor Mobility in Canada

This paper evaluates possible reasons why interregional wage differences might persist over long periods of time, such as a century or more. A general equilibrium model of interacting regions is developed which can consider explanations including interregional differences in production costs, changes in relocation (migration) costs, and differences in interregional transfer payments. Implications from the model are tested using panel microdata from the Canadian Labour Market Activity Surveys of 1989 and 1990. Key findings are that younger, better educated, native English-speaking workers, who presumably have better information and lower mobility costs, appear to have the smallest interregional wage differences. Thus, because the extent of spatial wage dispersion varies across workers with different characteristics, changes in the pattern of spatial wage disparities over time may be in part a demographic phenomenon.     

Gains and losses, outcomes of interregional migration in the five Nordic countries

This paper examines the outcome of interregional migration in various aspects from the migrants' perspective. It is based on a survey, including 6 000 interregional migrants in the five Nordic countries. The results indicate that interregional migration leads to a positive outcome for most migrants and few people seem to be forced to make decisions including painful tradeoffs. Motives have an effect on what aspects of outcome migrants are satisfied with. The influence of individual migrants' characteristics on migration outcome revealed few significant effects. Migrants claimed to be most satisfied with living conditions and less satisfied with the livelihood after moving. To be satisfied with social conditions turned out to be crucially important for the general outcome of migration.     

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO SOLVING INFEASIBLE RAS PROBLEMS

ABSTRACT The RAS procedure is widely used to update national and regional input-output tables and international trade tables and to construct regional tables from national ones. Special problems, however, have been encountered when the procedure is used to adjust interregional trade tables. In this paper, the special properties of interregional trade tables that increase the likelihood of nonconvergence of the RAS procedure are discussed, and two linear programming methods of solving infeasible RAS problems are provided. First, a closed linear programming approach, which enables exogenous information to override the purely mechanical solution of infeasible RAS problems, is presented. Finally, the open linear programming approach is applied successfully to adjust U.S. interregional trade data that had previously failed to converge using the RAS procedure.     

A HEDONIC MODEL OF INTERREGIONAL WAGES,RENTS, AND AMENITY VALUES*

ABSTRACT This paper develops a general multimarket hedonic model appropriate for a national, interregional study of wages, housing prices, and location-specific amenities. The model encompasses the effects of interregional location, intraurban location, and city size. Typically, hedonic studies focus on a single market such as labor or housing and ignore interactions implicit in a more global compensation mechanism. Examination of the comparative statics of our model indicates that single-market differentials are partial prices and are unreliable measures of amenity values in an interregional context. Unbiased amenity values are estimated for a comprehensive set of amenities using data on housing prices for 34,414 households and wages for 46,004 workers from the 1980 Census of Population and Housing. Statistically significant differences in housing prices and wages are found due to amenities.     

METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN POPULATION TRENDS IN CANADA, 1966–1982

This paper discusses broad population movements within and between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions in Canada during the recent past. It is based on an annual series of aggregate migration at the metropolitan level. Three complementary approaches are used in order to distill information from this vast array of interregional flows. The first is based on net migration. The second, disequilibrium analysis, is based on the difference between the observed population shares of regions and a set of calculated steady-state population shares which would result if the currently observed set of interregional migration rates remained constant. Both approaches indicate short-term effects of migration on the evolving pattern of regional growth and decline. The third approach, based on aggregate interregional flows, allows one to observe some changes in migration behaviour which are not made evident by the first two approaches.     

Major Cyclical Components of the 1966–71 Canadian Interregional Population System

The eight most durable cyclical components determined by the 1966–71 structural matrix of the eight-region and ten-age-group Canadian interregional population system are identified. Each of these components is related to a unique region. Their periods distribute within a narrow range around the length of a generation, while their half lives vary substantially, mainly due to a large variation in the shapes of regional fertility schedules. The magnitudes of cyclical waves transmitted among regions tend to be positively related to interregional outmigration rates. The most durable and significant cyclical component has its greatest impact on the age profile of Ontario.     

Regional Fertility Differentials and the Effect of Migration: An Analysis of U.S. State-level Data

This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, the influence of interregional migration on regional fertility differentials. Specifically, it tests the hypothesis that regions that are closely linked through migration have, all else held constant, a lower differential in fertility than regions that are relatively isolated from one another. A model linking the fertility differential between two states to migration as well as a number of socioeconomic variables is articulated. The model is tested by means of a randomization procedure using U.S. state-level data for 1980. Results support the hypothesis that an increasing volume of interregional migration tends to lower regional fertility differentials.     

Requiem for the Fixed-Transition-Probability Migrant

In a recent paper titled “Requiem for the Net Migrant” Andrei Rogers persuasively argues for the use of a multiregional perspective rather than a uniregional one in measuring and projecting the dynamics of internal migration. In particular, he highlights the deficiencies of using net migration rates in population projections, giving illustrations of the very large differences that can occur if constant net migration rates are assumed versus fixed interregional transition probabilities. Net migration rates are conceptually unsound because their denominators are not true “at-risk” populations. Fixed interregional transition probabilities, however, are inconsistent with a sound behavioral representation of migration system dynamics. Whereas such stationary Markov models posit a role for shifting origin region populations, they do not embed the assumptions intrinsic to gravity or opportunity model concepts about the role of changing destination region populations. This paper explores alternative, more behaviorally pleasing interregional models that posit a role for shifting destination populations in altering the attractiveness of migration alternatives. Density-dampened, destination-population-weighted transition probability structures are explored. The importance of modeling intraregional migration separately from nonmovement is stressed.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

Commuting and migration

This paper studies the connection between interregional commuting and interregional migration, using data from the Czech Republic. In principle, prior commuting could either raise or lower the propensity to migrate, depending on whether the existence of commuting alters the benefits of migration by more than it changes the costs. The Czech data, however, indicate that commuting raises the likelihood of migration overall and for nonelderly age groups. But for the elderly, the effect is the reverse, with prior commuting making migration less likely.     

Salt and Fish Processing in the Ancient Mediterranean: A Brief Survey

The demand for salt generated by the dietary and domestic needs of most Greek city-states could be usually fulfilled by local resources given the general abundance of salt along the coasts of the ancient Mediterranean. The extremely rare references to interregional salt trade in literary and documentary sources corroborate this idea. As a bulky commodity with little economic value, salt was too expensive to be transported over long distances and was more conveniently obtainable from local resources. However, the situation was different when large-scale fish processing centers entered into the equation. The production and widespread distribution of processed fish required a steady supply of both fish and salt. Salt only was able to transform fish—which is otherwise extremely perishable—into a durable commodity, easy to store and trade. The strategic importance that salt assumed at these centers transformed its economic significance and made interregional trade both convenient and profitable. Also, it was through the medium of processed fish that the surplus of salt production available in certain regions was redistributed across the Mediterranean and came to play an important, albeit indirect, role in interregional trade.     

GLOBALIZING KNOWLEDGE: HOW TECHNOLOGICAL OPENNESS AFFECTS OUTPUT,SPATIAL INEQUALITY,AND WELFARE LEVELS

Using an analytically solvable model, we study how the spatial distribution of economic activities and the ensuing welfare levels are affected by pecuniary externalities, depending on transportation costs, and localized technological externalities, due to the cost saving effect of intra‐ and interregional knowledge spillovers. Under the assumption of capital mobility and labor immobility, we show that increasing interregional knowledge spillovers, i.e., promoting technological openness, favors a smoother transition between different levels of firms concentration, makes trade globalization less likely to generate catastrophic and irreversible agglomeration, and ultimately leads to a less uneven distribution of welfare.     

UPPER BOUNDS ON THE SIZES OF INTERREGIONAL FEEDBACKS IN MULTIREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS*

ABSTRACT. Upper bounds are presented for a measure of the overall percentage error caused in a multiregional input-output model when interregional feedback effects are ignored. This error figure is thus a measure of the magnitude of interregional linkages. The upper bounds are expressed as a function of the levels of self-sufficiency in the regions in the model and of the norms of the regional technical coefficients matrices. Experimental results are presented for a variety of examples that are thought to reflect real-world situations, and it is clear that in many cases the upper bound (and hence the error) is extremely small. The implication is that single-region input-output models may be adequate for a variety of questions.     

A NEW APPROACH TO MODELING THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE EVENTS

This paper develops a new methodology to predict the interregional and interindustry impacts of disruptive events. We model the reactions of economic agents by minimizing the information gain between the pre‐ and postevent pattern of economic transactions. The resulting nonlinear program reproduces, as it should, the pre‐event market equilibrium. The methodology is tested further by means of a comparison of this base scenario with two regional production shock scenarios and two interregional trade shock scenarios. The outcomes show a plausible combination of partially compensating demand, supply, and spatial substitution effects, which justifies the further development, testing, and application of this new approach.     

Canada‐United States interregional trade: quasi‐points and spatial change

Interregional trade between Canada and the United States has undergone significant change since the inception of free trade. However, the magnitude of that change for the different regions in Canada and the United States has not been properly identified because of a lack of an appropriate measure. This paper introduces the concept of a quasi‐point and employs a spatial point pattern test to measure the degree of change in the interregional trade of Canadian provinces and US states, with an emphasis of that change on Ontario. It is found that the degree of change in the interregional trade flows is related to the degree of change in the provincial tariff rates.     

Spatial Analysis of Regional Inequalities in Turkey

In this paper, we examine regional inequalities in Turkey not only at the interprovincial level but for three different regional definitions as well. It has raised questions about inequalities not only between regions (interregional) but inequalities within each region. Hence, one contribution of this paper is to test the effects of aggregation and scale on the identification of regional inequalities using currently accepted spatial analytic methods. The results indicate that overall inequalities are decreasing; however spatial dependence is becoming more dominant. The Theil Index indicates that interregional inequalities are increasing while intraregional inequalities are declining for all spatial partitions from 1980 to 1997. Most developed provinces are enhancing overall inequalities, although there is some evidence of a spread effect on their neighbours.