PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].     

CONCEPT FOR PRESERVING AND RESTORING THE ARAL SEA AND NORMALIZING THE ECOLOGICAL,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ARAL REGION

The government committee charged by the former USSR Supreme Soviet with formulating measures for resolving the Aral Sea crisis presents a list of basic recommendations for ameliorating public health and economic problems in the Aral Region and reversing the decline of the sea. Considerable emphasis is placed on basic structural change in the regional economy and water budget. A staged procedure is outlined for the gradual transformation of the water balance and economic structure while maintaining the Aral Sea as a single (unified) water body.     

ON THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE ARAL SEA

Although both the Caspian and Aral Sea basins are affected by fluctuations in the general moisture conditions affecting the Northern Hemisphere, the two drainage basins react differently to identical moisture changes both over the long term and over the short term. Over the short term, a shift in wet periods has been observed between the European part of the USSR, which contains the Volga basin draining into the Caspian, and western Asia, which contains the Aral Sea drainage basin. Since there is a direct relationship between general moisture conditions and level changes, the short-term level fluctuations would be heterochronous (out of phase) in the two seas. Over the long term, the comparison is complicated by the fact that Caspian drainage derives mainly from snow meltwater in the Russian plain while Aral Sea drainage derives from a combination of snow and glacier meltwater. Glacier runoff tends to increase in dry, warm periods and to decrease in wet, cold periods of glacier growth, while snow is related directly to general moisture conditions.     

THE CAUSES OF WATERLEVEL CHANGES OF THE ARAL SEA IN THE HOLOCENE

A specialist in loess geomorphology and arid-zone hydrology distinguishes three categories of factors accounting for waterlevel changes in the Aral Sea. She judges the most significant to be changes in inflow resulting from changes in the course of the Amudarya, the more important of the two tributary streams. The Amudarya at various times emptied into the Sarykamysh depression, southwest of the Aral Sea, giving rise to a flow of water through the now dry Uzboy channel to the Caspian Sea. Climatic change, involving alternations of wet and dry cycles, is said to have accounted for only minor water level fluctuations, of the order of 4 to 6 m, against the background of the major fluctuations produced by the Amudarya course migrations. Human activity, notably irrigation, is regarded as having become significant only in modern times as a result of an expansion of irrigation works. The present abrupt decline in the Aral waterlevel (6 m from 1960 to 1977, including 2 m in the last three years) is attributed to the combination of a dry climatic cycle and greatly increased use of water for irrigation.     

THE PRESENT STAGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SARYKAMYSH DEPRESSION

The Sarykamysh depression of Soviet Central Asia, southwest of the Aral Sea, has begun to fill with water since around 1960 after having lain dry for 350 years. As of 1976, the lake, fed mainly by irrigation drainage water from the nearby Khorezm (Khiva) oasis, had grown to 2,000 km², with a depth of at least 40 m. The depression was receiving 4 to 4.5 km³ of water a year and continued to fill. While the appearance of such a large body of water in the desert would appear in itself to be a positive development, the question is raised whether the water would not be put to better use by being directed toward the Aral Sea.     

MAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN OVERALL RUNOFF IN THE ARAL SEA BASIN

The article examines the prospects of using runoff characteristics and changes in runoff composition as a basis for predicting environmental modification. The technique is employed to assess changes in the circulation of matter that are taking place in the drainage basin of the Aral Sea as a result of the intensification of irrigation. Overall runoff, including its liquid, solid (suspended sediment) and chemical phases, is analyzed in connection with a shift in the deposition of material from the Aral Sea to the irrigated plains.     

MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER BALANCE OF THE ARAL SEA

In view of the declining inflow into the Aral Sea, alternative proposals are advanced to save this inland sea by reducing its area as well as its salinity levels. The proposals involve the closing off of some portions of the sea, notably the Little Aral in the northeast and the Western Aral, from the large shallow eastern portion. Some portions of this fragmented sea would then be treated as active bodies of water with a throughflow regime, discharging surplus waters of high salinity into other portions, which would be allowed to become salt marshes. Various combinations of active water areas and residual water areas are examined, and possible trends in waterlevel and salinity are projected to the middle of the 21st century.     

CAUSES OF ARAL SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS IN THE PAST

The history of variations of the level of the Aral Sea from the most ancient times is reviewed and much useful information presented on natural regimes of the Aral's tributary rivers, the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya; the natural high- and low-water cycles of the Aral; and historical episodes where natural or human events diverted the Amudar'ya's flow westward into Lake Sarykamysh, which served as a kind of “alternative Aral” during these situations. Thus, the present decline of the Aral and growth of Sarykamysh can be viewed as just one cycle (albeit man-modified) of an Amudar'ya-Aral-Sarykamysh drainage system. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1990, No. 1, pp. 78-86.     

The Aral Sea Basin Crisis: Transition and Environment in Former Soviet Central Asia

The haunting picture of a disappearing Aral Sea is just part of an overall environmental crisis in the Aral Sea Basin, where millions of people are dependent on agricultural production around the flows of two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Forced cotton cultivation in the former Soviet Union, in the context of inefficient agricultural organization and production, caused water mismanagement, salinization, water and soil contamination, erosion and the desiccation of the Aral Sea. In the post-Soviet era of ‘transition’, the governments of the Central Asian states and international donors have tried to mitigate the impact of the crisis and contain its scope. Resource-based tensions in the region reflect national (and sometimes ethnic) interests vested in the crucial agricultural sectors that provide foreign exchange and food. Although the Central Asian governments are gradually formulating regional water, land and salt management strategies, the room for manoeuvre that exists to implement policies which would immediately improve the environment, such as efficient water management and sustainable land use, is not being sufficiently utilized.     

Water in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia: Cause of Conflict or Cooperation?

An American specialist on the water resources of the republics of the former USSR, and especially those in Central Asia, reviews the current state of the Aral Sea Basin water resource with respect to supply, consumption, and the legal/institutional framework governing its use. More specifically, he examines water resources and management in the Aral Sea Basin for the purpose of assessing the potential for either interstate conflict or cooperation among the basin states (including Afghanistan and Iran). The author explores actions that could be taken to enhance water availability in the basin and the status of current structures for interstate management of key shared water resources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: Q15, Q25, R14. 2 figures, 2 tables, 49 references.     

The Water-Balance Components of the Aral Sea and their Impact on Long-Term Level Fluctuations

An analysis of water-balance components over the 45-year period 1926–1970 seeks to establish their relative significance in the marked decline of the Aral Sea level since 1961. Long-term fluctuations in the sea level are found to reflect both natural fluctuations in the water resources available to the drainage basin and the steady growth of human activity in the watershed area. An increase in water withdrawals for irrigation in the 1950s did not appreciably affect the Aral Sea level because of generally large water resources during those years. The intensive decline of the water level since 1961 is attributed mainly to a growth of consumptive withdrawals from the Syrdarya and Amudarya, the two main tributaries of the Aral Sea. The position of the sea level also depends on the annual fluctuations of evaporation from the sea surface, which tends to be more variable than the annual streamflow to the sea. The subsurface component of Aral Sea inflow, contrary to previous studies, is found to be a negligible factor.     

On the Question of Iron and Steel Plant Location in Kazakhstan

Among the iron-ore deposits of Kazakhstan, current attention is focused on the deposits of central Kazakhstan, as a raw-material source for the Karaganda steel plant, and on the Kustanay deposits, as an ore supply source for the steel plants of the southern Urals. The author discusses the potential utilization of a third iron-ore area situated on the north shore of the Aral Sea.     

THE IMPACT OF THE WATER ROUTES OF NOVGOROD AND NORTHEASTERN RUS' ON THE PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE TRANSVOLGA IN THE 12TH-14TH CENTURIES

On the basis of early chronicles, statutes, and maps, as well as toponyms, the author retraces the river routes and portages used by Novgorodian and Rostov-Suzdalian tribute collectors, traders, and soldiers travelling from the upper reaches of the Volga to the White Sea slope in the 12th-14th centuries. He also indirectly assesses the negative and positive impact of these waterways on the physical environment on the basis of artifacts and logic. (The translation was prepared by James R. Gibson of York University, Toronto).     

International and Regional Responses to the Aral Crisis: An Overview of Efforts and Accomplishments

An authoritative U.S. analyst of Central Asian water management problems, and former advisor to the Uzbek government on water management issues, surveys the nature and effectiveness of international and regional programs to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis. After first reviewing the history and magnitude of the crisis, the author assesses international and regional assistance programs during the late Soviet period and subsequent initial years of independence for the Central Asian republics within the Aral Basin. A concluding section includes policy recommendations based on the author's extensive experience in the field and familiarity with many of the principal organizations involved. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F35, Q15, Q25. 2 figures, 1 table, 32 references.     

RESEARCH ON THE ARAL SEA AND ARAL REGION

The author, an expert in Central Asian toponymy, culture, and physical geography, examines major trends in research on the Aral region's geography by focusing on major themes of paleogeography, bottom and shoreline morphology, hydroclimatic conditions, migration of salts, and forecasting negative impacts of hydrological engineering projects on the region's environment. In the process he presents much interesting material on the early history of the sea and its hinterland (most notably, the deltas of the Syr Dar'ya and Amu Dar'ya) and about differences in the interpretation of quantitative information about the sea by scholars at different times and using different methodologies.     

Structural Geomorphology Investigations in the Northern Ustyurt in Connection with Oil and Gas Prospecting

Structural-geomorphic techniques are tested in the northern part of the Ustyurt plateau (Lat. 46°N Long. 56°E) between the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea in an attempt to identify local uplifts that may be potentially oil or gas bearing. The techniques include a structural-geomorphic photo interpretation, morphometric analysis of topographic maps and field mapping. Specific relationships between structure and surface relief are established in the three basic regions of the study area: the plateau, the escarpment zone and the foreland plain. In the plateau, surface relief generally directly reflects buried structures. In the plain, crustal movements are evident in the impact of abrasion and deposition processes that took place during transgressions of the nearby Caspian Sea. In the escarpment zone, both direct and inverse relationships are established between scarp promontories and embayments, on the one hand, and the plateau structure, on the other hand. Aside from some local uplifts, the investigation also reveals patterns of local and regional fault lines that often are arranged perpendicular to one another.     

Regional and Thematic Index, 2002-2007

A U.S.-based political scientist specializing in the complexities of international freshwater basins considers the role of two fundamental factors (geography and relative power) in the study of hydro-politics. Conventional analyses claim that in asymmetric contexts the more powerful state (in relative power terms) is able to dictate the status quo. Arguing, however, that such traditional (and even some critical) analyses tend to downplay the importance of geography, the author investigates how a state's physical position along a river may provide an otherwise weaker riparian state the means to challenge the status quo. The paper considers three cases (Tigris-Euphrates, Nile, and Aral Sea basins) with lessons for the study of power in hydro-politics.     

Water-Transport Problems of Central Asia in Connection with Water-Management Projects on the Amudarya and the Karakum Canal

The economics of Central Asian transportation are such that railroads are more economical than waterways if they run parallel, but water transport is considerably more economical than motor transport in the absence of railroads. This explains why shipping was never significant along the Syrdarya, one of the two major streams of Central Asia, which has been paralleled by a railroad (from Orenburg to Tashkent) since 1906. The situation was different in the case of the Amudarya, which was paralleled by a railroad in its lower reaches only since 1955. The significance of shipping on the Aral Sea is declining rapidly as more water is being withdrawn from its tributary streams for irrigation and the sea level is dropping. The author sees a future for water transportation on a southern east-west route made up by the upper reaches of the Amudarya and the Karakum Canal. However, such a route would require considerably additional capital investment on the canal to make it accessible to larger barges.     

CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EVAPORATION IN THE ARAL SEA BASIN

An analysis of evaporation changes in the Central Asian plain in connection with the drop of the Aral Sea level beginning in 1961 shows that there has been a reduction in evaporation from stream valleys and deltas and an increase in evaporation from irrigated land and newly formed evaporating surfaces. These new entities are primarily the Arnasay depression (west of the Golodnaya Steppe irrigation district) and the Sarykamysh depression (west of the lower reaches of the Amudarya), which have become filled with spent irrigation water draining from the irrigated land. Another new source of evaporation associated with human activity are the lakes and wetlands formed along the Kara Kum Canal as a result of the filtration of canal water. It turns out, furthermore, that irrigation on sloping piedomon plains, such as those watered by the Kara Kum Canal, requires more water than in old irrigated alluvial plains because of the additional water needed to flush salt out of the soil and to fill subsoil cavities and raise the watertable.     

On the Question of Diverting part of the Unused Runoff of Northern and Siberian Rivers into Regions Suffering from a Shortage of Water Resources

An advocate of the diversion of Siberian water to Central Asia presents the latest thinking on such a project and recommends a combination of the diversion of water from the upper Ob' for irrigation of Northern Kazakhstan and the diversion of water from a small lower Ob' reservoir southward across the Turgay divide into the Aral Sea basin.