LABOUR FORCE GROWTH IN SINGAPORE

Singapore's labour force participation rates are at high levels. Age-specific rates, especially of men, have approached those of developed countries. The current very low total fertility rate of 1.25 would have major implications for Singapore's labour supply and economy in a closed population. Multi-pronged approaches such as measures to increase fertility, increase labour force participation, and to augment the local workforce with migrants are discussed. In the context of Singapore's physical land constraint, continued growth in the labour force in the long term would be challenging. Future gross domestic product growth is likely to be more sustainable via labour productivity growth. Identifying new niche areas of growth and having a nimble and quality workforce would become more important than labour force growth.     

Demographic transition theory: a neglected aspect of the nomadism-sedentarism continuum

This paper proposes an adaptation of demographic transition theory to the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. It is argued that a change along this continuum implies a change in the mode of production, which in turn entails changes in fertility and mortality. The following hypotheses are set forth: 1) at the pastoral phase of a nomadic society, fertility is relatively low and mortality is relatively high, yielding a low rate of natural increase; 2) as a pastoral nomadic society senentarizes, fertility begins to rise and mortality falls, resulting in a sharp rise in natural increase, but as sedentarization becomes more advanced, both these trends slow down somewhat; 3) as the nomadic society becomes fully sedentarized, there is a period in which fertility remains at a high level but then begins to fall slowly, whereas mortality, after reaching a temporary minimum, exhibits a minor increase followed by a resumption of a declining trend; and 4) in the postsedentarization phase, the demographic regime of the ex-nomads becomes similar to the 2nd and 3rd stages of the original demographic transition theory, with a slowdown of the decline in mortality, followed by a later slowdown of fertility and of the rate of natural increase. The hypothesis of rising fertility among sedentarizing nomads is related to both social modernization and economic growth and development, including an improved standard of living and public health services. The interrelated processes of general societal responses to population growth and the changing role of children in the family are assumed to account for the eventual fertility decline. Data from several countries, including a case history from Israel, suggest that birth rates increase along the continuum but their decline at postsedentarization will depend on trends in the general rural sector. Natural increase rates of sedentarizing nomads are considerably higher than those of pastoral nomads. It is concluded that this approach may fill a gap in demographic transition theory and provide a conceptual framework for future studies.     

Fragmentation regimes of Canada's forests

Canada is a large nation, approximately 1 billion hectares in size, and until recently, no national assessment of forest fragmentation had been undertaken. To assess national level biodiversity and ecosystem condition, national drivers of forest fragmentation are identified as being either primarily natural (e.g., resulting from wildfires, water features, or topography), or primarily anthropogenic (e.g., resulting from urbanization or roads and associated activities such as forest harvesting and oil and gas exploration). The relative importance of each of these fragmentation drivers within Canada's ten forested ecozones, which occupy approximately 650 million ha, is assessed using ecozone summaries and standard scores. Forest pattern metrics were generated from a Landsat‐derived land cover product and fragmentation drivers were characterized using available national datasets. Through this analysis, we combine and portray the relative importance of forest patches with spatial layers indicative of natural and anthropogenically induced conditions as driving various fragmentation regimes over the forested area of Canada. The forest fragmentation in Canada can be characterized primarily by natural drivers, whereas fragmentation regimes attributable to anthropogenic drivers are typically regionally located and related to industrial activities and access (i.e., roads). We identify three scenarios in our results that characterize forest fragmentation in Canada: ecozones with similar forest patterns but different drivers; ecozones with similar patterns and drivers; and finally, ecozones with both different patterns and different drivers. Our findings indicate that national assessments of forest fragmentation should account for both natural (and inherent) and anthropogenic sources of fragmentation.     

Economic Transition and Demographic Change in Russia, 1989-1995

A World Bank demographer reviews recent population changes in Russia, relating trends in fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration to the social and economic effects of the transition to a market economy. Significant trends (a precipitous drop in fertility, an extraordinary increase in mortality—especially among middle-aged males—and a consequent decline in natural increase) are identified and analyzed, with dislocations caused by the uncertainties of economic and political transition suggested as the principal causes. The effect of net in-migration to Russia (probably mainly ethnic Russians from the Near Abroad countries) in partially offsetting the natural population decrease is examined as well. 5 tables, 16 references.     

农村居民点用地整治潜力测算研究——以广东省五华县为例

以广东省五华县为例,以行政村为单元,在政策指标测算法的基础上,从自然环境状况、经济保障能力和社会因素等3方面构建理论潜力修正模型,将理论潜力修正为可实现潜力,并根据土地适宜性评价估算增加耕地潜力,以期为科学编制农村土地整治规划提供依据。研究表明,五华县农村居民点用地布局分散、规模小、空间差异显著,呈现出沿河谷、沿交通线路分布的典型特征。到2020年,农村居民点整治理论潜力为5683.91 hm²,北部村庄的整治潜力较大;可实现潜力修正系数为0.54,与理论潜力相差较大,各行政村之间差异明显;新增耕地潜力系数介于0.32-0.94,预计新增耕地1943.41 hm²,琴江、五华河沿线村庄的新增耕地潜力较大。建议实施差别化的农村居民点整治对策,推进五华县农村土地整治。     

Place in legal geography: Agency and application in agriculture research

Systemic failure of our land management, legal, and regulatory institutions is revealed by the serious and adverse social and environmental impacts of land use practices in private agriculture, evident in severe land and water degradation, precipitous decline in biodiversity, and reduced resilience to natural hazards and climate change. The efficacy of the standard treatment of environmental law and regulation is often hampered by the cultural and legal priority of property rights. We take a different approach, using legal geography to refocus attention on the salience and agency of place and responses to degradation, such as conservation farming and regenerative agriculture, which are reforming dominant land management cultures and institutions from within. By recognising the role of place in leading geographically responsive land use decision-making and more sustainable, resilient, and productive agricultural practices, an alternative model of private land ownership may be possible, as well as greater environmental sustainability. For researchers, our approaches too must be sensitive and responsive to place agency and our methodologies must evolve to acknowledge the agency of place. Place agency in legal geography has great potential for application in reforming suboptimal industrial agricultural practices and legal models of property ownership, and also for revitalising our scholarship.     

WELFARE GAINS FROM REMOVING LAND-USE DISTORTIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF URBAN CHANGE IN POST-APARTHEID SOUTH AFRICA*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes the effect of eliminating apartheid land-use restrictions in South Africa using a simplified version of the standard urban model. When freedom of residential location is granted, black township residents compete for land near the center of the core cities, pushing white residents to less accessible locations. Black consumption rises and white consumption falls in response, but the increase in total land rent is sufficient to compensate for white losses. The resulting aggregate welfare gain is a natural consequence of eliminating the distortion imposed by the apartheid system. These conclusions are robust to a number of modifications of the basic model.     

Agricultural variation and human fertility in antebellum Pennsylvania

Focus in this discussion is on research designed to examine human fertility variation in 59 Pennsylvania counties in 1850 and 1860. The research goes beyond previous historical studies in examining the relationship between land quality and fertility and in separating the possible impacts of settlement from the availability of land for agricultural purposes. The measure of human fertility used in the analysis was the child-woman ratio, defined as the number of children aged 0-4/1000 white women aged 15-49. In 1850 the child-woman ratio ranged from 488-889. The child-woman ratio fell slightly between 1850 and 1860, and county level variation was reduced. Yet, Pennsylvania counties varied substantially in fertility levels during this period. The range between the highest and lowest fertility countries was over 400 children in 1850 and almost 350 in 1860. The set of agricultural variables displayed expected differences at the 2 time periods. The excess demand for farmsites increased between 1850 and 1860, while the variation in demand decreased by over one-half, reflecting additional settlement within all acres of the state. The settlement ratio increased over the decade; the sex ratio declined, most likely in response to outmigration westward. The agricultural variables were all negatively related to the child-woman ratio and were statistically significant, except for the labor/acre variable. The strongest correlation in 1850 was between the excess demand for farmsites and fertility. This coefficient indicated that the greater the excess demand for farmsites, the lower the child-woman ratio. This relationship was attentuated somewhat for 1860, yet it continued to be negative and statistically significant. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were all related to fertility in the expected direction, but only 5 of the 7 correlations were statistically significant in 1850 and 6 in 1860. The settlement ratio, sex ratio, percent urban, distance to urban place, and the measure of female age composition were all significantly related to fertility in 1850 and 1860. The study results support the growing body of research which has identified agricultural opportunity as a significant factor in fertility in rural areas of 19th century America. The findings also suggest that the importance of agricultural opportunity extended beyond the frontier period.     

An Economic Appraisal of Lands in Connection with the Organization of Lands on State Farms of the Virgin Lands

The author suggests that economic land appraisals, designed to improve the utilization of state-farm lands, be combined with a program of land organization on state farms, assigning the most effective land uses to individual farm plots on the basis of physical factors, soil fertility, and achievement of maximum yields at the lowest cost in labor and capital. Rational land use under the new schemes in compared with the past stereotyped approach on state farms of the virgin lands.     

Evaluating Ethnopedological Knowledge Systems for Classifying Soil Quality. A Case Study in Bo Hamlet with Muong People of Northern Vietnam

Ethnopedological knowledge is incorporated in a case study for sustainable land management of mountain karst areas in Vietnam. The research is based on a multidisciplinary approach, including participation of local inhabitants for identifying and classifying local indicators of soil quality, next to scientifically sound approaches to soil quality assessment based on analytical soil data and a statistical treatment of the results. The case study focuses on Bo hamlet, located in the Ngo Luong commune of the Tan Lac district, Hoa Binh province. The participatory approach reveals that local people of the Muong ethnic group distinguish seven land use types and six soil types. They also identified nine local indicators of soil quality: presence of earthworms; crop productivity; topsoil colour; presence of a humus layer; soil surface compaction; erosion; slope gradient; surface water, and soil moisture status. Based on this indigenous knowledge, 19 soil samples from nine soil profiles in Bo hamlet were analysed for fertility indicators. Laboratory results confirmed the validity of indigenous knowledge for identifying and classifying local indicators of soil fertility, compared to scientific standards of soil quality.     

Public Goods and the Derivation of Land Value Assessment Schedules within a Spatial Equilibrium Setting

A method of mapping the classic economic public good into a spatial realm is identified. Within the spatial equilibrium land use model an ideal government distributes a public good; sets mill rates, assesses land, and collects property taxes; and maintains a balanced budget. Equilibrium is brought about within the household sector by the unfolding of the land value schedule both over space and in response to the public sector. The household and public sectors are mutually within a steady state when there is no excess demand or supply of public good. The model is extended to elucidate Tiebout's hypothesis that government activity is reflected in land values. Also, a criterion for judging fairness of the spatial equilibrium assessment schedule is presented and applied.     

美国绿色空间理论、实践及启示

本文介绍了绿色开敞空间概念,研究了美国城市公园系统、区域整体、绿道、自然风景、景观生态规划、大地景观、纽约城乡规划设想等重要理论,概述了其绿色空间发展历程,分析了美国自然风景园、公园运动、国家公园、开放空间规划、绿道等实践。最后,从自然风景名胜区体系、绿色空间区域生态化、绿色空间自然化、绿道网络化、园林创新、绿色开放系统等方面探讨了美国绿色空间理论与实践对我国的重要借鉴和启示。     

Relict Soils and Early Arable Land Management in Lofoten, Norway

Relict arable soils dating fromc.AD700 provide an opportunity to identify early arable land management practices in the agriculturally marginal landscapes of the Lofoten archipelago, northern Norway. Synthesis of field survey and soil thin section micromorphology supported by image analysis suggests that there was deliberate management of erodible sandy soils in sloping locations to create small areas of cultivation terrace, with a range of materials used as soil amendments to stabilize the accumulated soil and enhance fertility. Small areas of sandy soils in more gently sloping locations were also cultivated, again with a range of materials used as amendments and which contributed to a significant increase in soil thickness. The last phase of cultivation commenced during the late 1800s and involved the reclamation of wetter, peaty soils by spade. These patterns of arable land management are repeated in different parts of Lofoten and indicate that despite the climatic and economic marginality of arable activity in Lofoten, land management practices were developed and applied to permit barley production from small areas.     

Fertility trends, marriage patterns, and savant typologies in Albanian context

In this article, the author focuses on the speculative literalism and typologism in current scholarship to construct a taken-for-granted view, taking issue especially with many points raised in the literature on the subject that have associated fertility rates in Albania more closely with the existence of patriarchal cultural traits. This leads the author to argue that the specific rationale for the myth of many children, high fertility rates, and complex family structures in Albanian context, as elsewhere in patrilineal societies, is an ideological elaboration of patriarchy. Methodologically, the analysis of the standard view of childbearing, based on standard ethnographic methods, traditional historical sources and aggregate demographic data, is aimed to illustrate the inadequacy of the historical-ethnographic paradigm against the available empirical evidence. In turn, understanding how ideological elements are emphasized in cultural activism should lead, against current scholarship claims, to an understanding of the way in which the urgent need for male children must have been to hide away other more troubling reasons.     

Naturalizing the state and symbolizing power in Russian agricultural land use

Land is intertwined with politics: both as a sine qua non for the territorial state, as well as a spatially limited natural resource through which geopolitical power and advantage are articulated and enacted. This remains the case, notwithstanding the emergence of global and planetary frameworks for land management towards collective environmental and developmental goals. Indeed, such frameworks contend with narratives and practices that not only treat land as a strategic national resource, but entangle it with the very ontology of statehood itself. This study examines such state-natures through the case of Russian agricultural land use. Analyzing governmental discourse from 2000 to 2020, it examines how in the extensive cultivation of agricultural land has come to be a hallmark of twenty-first century vertical and horizontal symbolic state-making: both as an instrumental means of enhancing the state's geopolitical power, as well as a means by which state is reified as environmentally sovereign and self-subsistent. So doing, the study complements a growing body of work in critical environmental geopolitics that has tended to eschew state-based analysis, or else leave the state underproblematized. As I argue, considering how the state is made natural, in turn helps to understand how nature is politically if not ontologically entangled in geopolitical thought and practice—in ways that attempts to act upon and indeed bring about wider-scale environmental subjects must contend.     

The Role of Surface Water Drainage in Environmental Change: a Case Example of the Upper South East of South Australia; an Historical Review

The role of surface water drainage in environmental change in Australia is rarely appreciated. Drains can modify surface water hydrology, not only altering flow regimes but also rapidly dispersing contaminants and altering the natural hydrological balance of associated flora and fauna. Yet drainage continues to be considered a viable management strategy rather than as a cause of land degradation. The impact of surface water drainage in an inherently saline area of South Australia, the Upper South East, is investigated. Surface water drains were constructed by developers in an attempt to increase the area of land available and viable for agricultural land use. Drainage strategies altered the natural direction, magnitude and frequency of surface water flow. The Upper South East has experienced periods of both increased surface water and flooding, and surface water deficit, in the past one hundred years. The region now receives less surface water than under pre‐European conditions, but local runoff is channelled into and through the wetlands more rapidly than before European settlement. Future management strategies are likely to continue this trend, to the detriment of remnant natural wetlands.     

从生态补偿标准研究思考旅游业对生态保护的作用——以云南省玉龙县为例

如何确定生态补偿标准是旅游地生态补偿研究的难点问题,也是制约旅游地可持续发展的关键。本研究以云南省玉龙县为案例,以生态保护过程中利益相关程度最高的社区居民为补偿对象,以土地价值为核算载体,基于生态足迹效率测算方法,系统性地提出了旅游地生态补偿的最低、合理与最高标准测算方法,为提高旅游地生态补偿标准核算的准确性以及推动生态补偿实践提供参考。研究表明,旅游业的发展为土地价值的实现提供了现实的市场化途径,同时提供了社区参与地区产业发展的机会。     

Practical Application of an Economic Land Evaluation In Belorussia

The use of an economic evaluation of lands in assigning more equitable production and procurement goals to collective farms is described with particular reference to the farms of Pukhovichi Rayon of Belorussian SSR. In this case the land of the various farms is reduced to a common denominator through the use of “standard land” and “computation land”, taking account not only of soil quality, but of the availability of the basic means of production, such as machinery, and the character of farm specialization.     

Offspring sex preference in frontier America

Analysis of the fertility histories of women born between 1850 and 1900, as given in the Utah Population Database (UPDB), reveals the effect of the number, as well as the sex composition, of previous children on birth-stopping and birth-spacing decisions. Specifically, agricultural and Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) households—two sub-populations that might have placed different values on male and female children for economic, social, and/or cultural reasons—showed a distinct preference for male children, as expressed by birth stopping after the birth of a male child and shorter birth intervals in higher-parity births when most previous children were female. Remarkably, women in both the early "natural fertility" and the later contraceptive eras used spacing behavior to achieve a desired sex mix. Although the LDS population had relatively high fertility rates, it had the same preferences for male children as the non-LDS population did. Farmers, who presumably had a need for family labor, were more interested in the quantity than in the sex mix of their children.