PROBLEMS OF THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN AND THE STABILITY OF ITS SHORELINE

The first of two papers on the problem of forecasting the level of the Caspian Sea evaluates factors widely believed to have been responsible for its lowering during much of the present century (including tectonic movements, climatic cycles, human activity). It concludes that previous forecasts have been inaccurate because of the failure to adequately model the complexity of processes involved, specifically the internal mechanisms of “self-regulation” of water levels. Continuation of the recent slight rise in the Caspian's level is predicted at least into the early 1990s (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING THEM

A second paper devoted to problems of predicting the future level of the Caspian Sea attempts, as did the first, to discount overly simplistic explanations for its nearly century-long decline and recent slight rise. Long-term climatic changes within the drainage basin of the Caspian and the resultant change in discharge of tributary rivers are proposed as the basic mechanism controlling sea level fluctuations and not, as argued in the popular press, tectonic movements, groundwater discharge variations, or the damming of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Various models for predicting future levels are compared, although no specific forecasts are made (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

"全球地域化"思想及对区域发展的意义

本文认为罗伯逊"全球地域化"范式有六个核心概念,"全球场域"、"普遍主义-特殊主义"是在论述全球与地方的互动关系; "特殊性空间"、"寻找基本教义"、"存心怀旧"和"地域化"则建构了这一范式的基本分析框架.罗伯逊的"全球地域化"是一种批判性的全球化,也是一种"和而不同"的全球化.由于这一范式包含了自上而下的"全球地域化"和自下而上的"地域全球化"的双向过程,且已经形成了一套完整的分析框架,从而实现了对"全球化"与"本土化"两极化论争的真正超越.对区域发展也具有极为重要的启示意义.     

TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF TOURIST SERVICES IN THE USSR AND TRENDS IN ITS DEVELOPMENT

Differences in the support structure for tourism in various parts of the USSR are analyzed as a consequence of such factors as natural conditions, proximity to major population centers and tourist attractions, route connectivity, and the variable shares of private (e.g., dacha) and rental accommodations. Elements of both dynamism and stability in the current spatial pattern are identified and comparisons of tourism infrastructure for 1976, 1980, and 1986 are used to analyze changes occurring in subregions within four broad macrozones. Tourism infrastructure and interregional tourist travel both are concentrated in the central and southern parts of the European USSR. Translated by H. L. Haslett, Leamington Spa, UK from: Izvestiya Vsesoyuznogo Geograficheskogo Obshchestva, 1990, No. 1, pp. 86-94.     

连云港市的港-城协调发展模式演化及影响要素

港口与城市之间的协调发展是实现港城互动、提升港口城市竞争力的重要途径。以连云港市1989—2009年统计数据为基础,构建了港口与城市协调发展的综合评价指标体系,运用因子分析方法计算出两系统综合发展指数;结合协调度、静态和动态协调发展度,对连云港港口与城市的协调发展模式的演化轨迹进行评价和分析。结果表明:①1989—2009年,连云港市港—城协调发展模式总体上经历了濒临失调模式到勉强协调模式再到基本协调模式的演化过程;②港口与城市基本处在协调发展的轨迹上,动态协调发展度呈逐渐增长的态势。进一步分析认为协调发展模式的演化主要由港口功能的升级、临港产业的壮大、城市发展的支撑等推动以及自然环境和区位因子、腹地的经济水平、周边港口的空间袭夺、港城关系的空间分离等约束要素共同作用。     

THE SYSTEM OF PROTECTED NATURAL AREAS IN THE USSR AND PROSPECTS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT

The International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources has developed a 10-category system for classifying the world's protected natural areas. The present article by two Soviet biogeographers, presented at Unesco's “Man and the Biosphere” conference in Minsk in 1983, analyzes the way in which the Soviet Union's protected areas fall into the classification system devised by the International Union. The article also discusses the types of protected areas found in the USSR, and the functions assigned to each. (The translation is by Philip R. Pryde, San Diego State University.)     

ON THE PROBLEM OF REGULATING THE REGIME OF THE CASPIAN SEA

In an effort to stabilize the declining level of the Caspian Sea, it has been proposed that evaporation from the water surface be reduced by decreasing the size of the sea through construction of a dam in the northern portion. Data on the geology and hydrology of the Caspian Sea bed suggest that the construction of a dam might have undesirable consequences not only for the northern fisheries basin but for the sea as a whole. The findings are based on the presence of salt domes on the bottom of the northern Caspian Sea. An influx of highly mineralized subsurface waters along faults associated with the salt domes as well as leaching of salt from the structures themselves may threaten to raise the salinity of the northern fisheries basin to intolerable magnitudes. The presence of a man-made dam, in the author's view, would also interfere with the natural circulation of water, threatening contamination of deeper layers of the Caspian Sea with hydrogen sulfide, as has happened in the case of the Black Sea. [For a discussion of the Caspian Sea problem, see Soviet Geography, November 1972.]     

郑汴一体化背景下开封旅游业发展研究

作为一座具有2700多年历史的文化名城,开封旅游业发展取得了不小的业绩;但如果从总体上衡量,开封的旅游发展还处于初级提升的景点经济阶段.＂十一五＂规划中的郑汴一体化战略将为开封旅游的繁荣提供重大的发展机遇.面对机遇,开封应该调整旅游发展战略,依托郑州庞大的客源市场和便利的交通优势,改革景区（点）机制、筹建文化大市场、净化旅游大环境、建立强有力的旅游管理体制、进一步明确旅游城市定位,争取在规划期内实现开封旅游经济的全面振兴.     

THE MECHANISM OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE VOLGA DELTA AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS

The delta of the Volga River on the Caspian Sea is a highly dynamic form, whose growth has been affected by a combination of physical and human factors. Rapid delta growth in recent years has resulted in a deterioration of both physical and economic conditions (navigation problems, inadequate moisture supply, overgrowing of shallows with vegetation, loss of spawning grounds). Regression analysis yields a number of relationships between the inflow of water and suspended sediments, on the one hand, and delta growth, on the other hand, with a distinction between periods of a lowering of the Caspian Sea level and relative stability. The regression equations are used to project the likely future evolution of the delta. The only combination of conditions that is likely to limit further delta growth by the year 2000 is the stability of the Caspian Sea level and a period of average moisture supply. In all other cases, the delta is likely to continue its undesirable advance.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN TIBET

In the past, a letter sent from Tibet to inland China often took almost half a year to arrive. In Tibet, people had to walk a long way, and then waited in a long queue for access to a fixed phone. Because of the poor state of telecommunications in Tibet in those early days, people in Tibet heard and saw little of the wonderful world outside. This in turn created an even greater apparent distance between Tibet and that outside world.     

THE PRESENT STATE AND TASKS OF COMPLEX MAPPING IN THE USSR

Recent developments in the Soviet Union's program of national thematic mapping and regional complex mapping are reviewed. A comprehensive mapping program along these lines, formulated in 1969 by GUGK, the government planning agency, has not been implemented. National thematic maps in the Soviet Union continue to be compiled by individual government agencies without coordination and without uniformity in legend and design, so that comparability is made difficult. The only thematic GUGK maps now being prepared are concerned with two long-term regional development programs in the Soviet Union–the rural development plan for the Nonchernozem zone of the European RSFSR and the construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railroad in the Soviet Far East. The need for a comprehensive and coordinated program of national thematic maps and regional atlases or map series is once again stressed in connection with economic planning and environmental problems, and a program of continuously updated regional atlases, based on digital data banks, is proposed. Suggestions are also made for the coordination of thematic maps at the international level.     

THE MORPHOMETRY OF THE CASPIAN SEA BASED ON CONTEMPORARY DATA

Differences in available data on the area of the Caspian Sea are analyzed, and an effort is made to explain them. The differences are particularly pronounced in the shallower northern portion of the sea, where the drop of the sea level over the years has produced more significant changes in shoreline configuration. Greater use of space imagery is urged in determining changes in shoreline configuration, and the setting of “geographical standards” is proposed to avoid continuing confusion in published data. The technical problem of calculating the physical water area, including surface roughness produced by wave motion, is discussed.     

THE NATURE OF THE MANPOWER PROBLEM IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIBERIA

The traditional picture of the economic development in Siberia presents a formidable obstacle in the form of a manpower deficit and high labor turnover. The official policy to combat this problem has been to give priority to the development of social and cultural amenities. Substantial changes in wage differentials and other economic and non-economic benefits seem to be a measure of the past. This article presents an overview of the situation and suggests that if any public policy is to be effective, it has to combine accelerated development in the social and cultural spheres and economic and noneconomic benefits as well. Furthermore, these measures have to be more differentiated regionally and among worker categories. Any such policy would require massive investment. The question is whether Soviet society can bear this huge burden in view of more immediate needs. Another question is whether the additional investment required would be compensated by a comparable increase in the productivity of labor. In view of substantial cost increases, capital productivity is likely to decline if not compensated by a change in the calculated prices on Siberian products, especially oil and gas, which seems doubtful in view of the present international situation.     

CAUSES OF ARAL SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS IN THE PAST

The history of variations of the level of the Aral Sea from the most ancient times is reviewed and much useful information presented on natural regimes of the Aral's tributary rivers, the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya; the natural high- and low-water cycles of the Aral; and historical episodes where natural or human events diverted the Amudar'ya's flow westward into Lake Sarykamysh, which served as a kind of “alternative Aral” during these situations. Thus, the present decline of the Aral and growth of Sarykamysh can be viewed as just one cycle (albeit man-modified) of an Amudar'ya-Aral-Sarykamysh drainage system. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1990, No. 1, pp. 78-86.     

海峡西岸旅游区视角下的福建省入境旅游发展研究

利用市场占有率、地理集中指数和变异系数对福建省入境旅游地域分布的空间聚集性进行定量分析.研究表明:入境旅游具有较高的空间聚集性,主要分布在厦门、泉州、福州,港澳台游客占主导,外国游客以美国、日本、新加坡和马来西亚居多.福建省2000-2008年入境旅游统计资料作为原始数据,建构GM(1,1)灰色预测动态模型并进行精度检验.研究表明:模型预测结果与实际数据基本一致,进而利用该模型对福建省未来五年入境旅游指标进行预测.     

西方新区域地理学的发展及其对我国区域经济地理研究的启示

近20年来,西方区域地理学发生了巨大变化。从80年代开始,出现了一种新的区域地理学。与传统区域地理学相比,新区域地理学倾向于结构主义、现实主义和后现代主义的哲学思维。强调区域的个性,强调人的能力及角色与社会结构在区域特性的形成与发展的作用。新区域地理学的核心概念是“地方”、“行为主体”、“体系”。在具体的区域研究中,它不仅注重当地的人及其它因素的重要性,也很重视“人”的各种行为背景,并且也重视来自“体系”的外部大环境的影响。本认为,新区域地理学的研究观点和方法对我国区域经济地理的研究具有启示意义,并主张在我国的区域研究中,应从对“地”的关注转向对“人”及“人地关系”的关注,发展中国的新区域地理学。     

A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE ADVISABILITY OF PARTITIONING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SHOALS OF THE CASPIAN SEA

On the basis of new calculations of the loss of water through evaporation from the temporarily flooded litteral zone of the northeast Caspian and the possible savings in the water budget that might be achieved by partitioning off the northeast shoals, the authors conclude that little would be gained by any project designed to reduce the water area of the northern Caspian.     

发达国家的农业现代化对我国农业发展的启示

本文系统地分析了发达国家农业现代化的特点,从发达国家农业现代化与我国农业生产现状的结合点上,探讨了今后我国农业发展的途径与策略。     

THE PROGRAM OF INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN THE NONCHERNOZEM ZONE

A Soviet economic planner discusses the ambitious long-term program to help upgrade the agriculture of the Nonchernozem zone of the RSFSR. This vast region in northern and central European Russia has suffered from a decline of farm employment and has lagged behind other regions of the Soviet Union in farm modernization. The development program envisages reclamation projects to drain many of the waterlogged areas in the zone; intensive fertilizer application and liming to improve the poor, acidic soils; the development of vegetable farms around the region's large urban centers; and the construction of centralized livestock raising establishments using industrial techniques.