西方乡村绅士化研究进展

绅士化概念自1990s年代被拓展应用到乡村地区的转型重构以来，引起地理学、社会学等学科的广泛关注和重视，已经成为乡村领域一条卓有成效的研究路径，而国内相关研究甚少。针对此，本文在研读西方相关文献的基础上，从概念和内涵、原因和动力、影响和效应等方面对西方乡村绅士化的研究成果进行系统梳理和归纳。然后从与城市绅士化的区别、与逆城市化的细微差异、认识的不断深入以及研究方法的演变等方面开展了乡村绅士化研究述评。最后指出西方乡村绅士化研究对我国的启示，尝试提出我国该领域亟需解决的问题及未来研究的方向，以期丰富和完善我国乡村领域的研究视野和内容体系，为顺利实施我国乡村振兴战略提供科学依据和经验借鉴。     

Commuting, Migration, and Rural-Urban Population Dynamics

Over the past 25 years social scientists attempting to explain the dramatic changes in the relative distribution of urban and rural population growth have gravitated toward two competing explanations. The regional restructuring hypothesis holds that changes in the spatial distribution of employment opportunities have been dominant whereas the deconcentration hypothesis attributes these changes to changes in residential preferences of workers and consumers. We develop an empirical test of these two explanations based on whether commuting and migration are positively or negatively related after controlling for other economic factors. Our econometric results support the deconcentration hypothesis.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

URBAN‐TO‐RURAL POPULATION GROWTH LINKAGES: EVIDENCE FROM OECD TL3 REGIONS*

The objective of this paper is to understand, from an international comparative perspective, how population growth in rural regions is affected by the relationship with their nearby urban centers. By means of a cross‐sectional analysis on OECD small regions (Territorial Level 3), the paper distinguishes spread effects—positive spillovers arising from urban growth—from the net effect of distance to nonrural places. The results show that spread effects outweigh backwash effects, so that rural regions benefit from growth in urban places. A rural region's distance from urban and intermediate regions has a negative effect on its population growth rate. Nevertheless, both the strength of this effect and the growth spillovers decline with distance, and this occurs relatively faster in Europe. The results further suggest that proximity to large urban areas has a higher positive influence than proximity to intermediate areas, but only outside Europe.     

首府集中度和西部城市化模式探索

城市首位度是最早提出来对城市规模状况的指标描述,但随着经济的发展,处于第二位城市的人口数量的增加,首位度日益无法得力地描述城市体系的特征状况,更无法表述出地区人口在首府城市的集中程度,为此本文提出了城市首府集中度的概念,将首府集中度划分为不同的等级层次。对比中国与世界平均及中、俄间的首府度分布曲线,从而得出结论:中国大城市的发展潜力仍然很大,应进一步扩展和完善大城市。西部地区地广人稀,对比分析俄罗斯和西部的首府度状况,相应地提出西部开发模式。     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

Conflict on the urban fringe: Urbanization,environmental stress,and urban unrest in Africa

Most research on the security implications of environmental and demographic change does not explicitly distinguish between urban and rural areas. While statistical conflict analyses are increasingly sophisticated with respect to spatial and substantive disaggregation they largely ignore the possibility that urban and rural areas may be affected differently. In Africa, a continent assumed to be particularly vulnerable to the social and economic externalities of environmental and demographic change, less than one percent of the land mass is defined as ‘urban’. Yet, the population that lives in African cities is expected to increase by more than 150% between 2020 and 2050 according to UN population forecasts, massively outpacing rural population growth estimated at 35%. Given the vast social transformation associated with this process of rapid urbanization, understanding the dynamics and consequences of urban population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, and its possible relationship with environmental factors is key to reducing vulnerabilities and facilitating sustainable urban growth on the continent. In this article we argue that high urban population growth may strain the provision of public services in urban areas, heighten competition over scarce urban land, and increase the chances of urban social unrest. We expect population pressure to have the most profound effects on social unrest in peri-urban areas, meaning the urban outskirts. We further investigate whether environmental push factors, operationalized as droughts happening in rural areas proximate to the urban centers, could be driving any effect of urban population growth on social disorder, possibly supporting concerns over climate change-induced social unrest. We test our expectations on a sample of similarly sized urban and peri-urban ‘grid cells’ covering the whole of the African continent for the 1997–2010 period, using geo-coded social unrest data. Our analysis shows that urban population growth is associated with increased unrest in the peri-urban areas only. We find no evidence, however, that this relationship is driven by environmental push factors in the form of nearby droughts. The study contributes insights relevant to the broader debates about possible security implications of hyper-urbanization and climate change.     

RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS IN AFRICA: SOME LESSONS FROM WESTERN NIGERIA

I n an analysis of regional problems within Africa, the frequent imbalance between the geographic distribution of resources and of population suggests that rural development and resettlement will play an increasingly important role in mobilizing the continent's latent resource base. With the almost universally increasing rates of population growth in Africa, pressure for redistribution of people is increasing, most of which manifests itself in accelerating rates of urbanization. But it is also apparent that developing urban areas can only effectively absorb a small proportion of maldistributed population. Therefore national planning programs are increasingly focusing upon the need to reconstruct or to reorientate the economic milieu of rural areas, as is demonstrated by increasing investment in rural development and settlement schemes.     

西方度假住宅研究进展

度假住宅是当前消费的一大热点,系统的理论研究却还十分匮乏。本文以大量的原文文献研究为基础,探寻西方度假房产研究的脉络线索,发现了以1980年代中期为分野的两个特征鲜明的阶段,进而对两个阶段的研究异同点进行了比较分析,勾勒出了西方度假住宅研究进展的轮廓,最后以西方为鉴对我国度假房产政策进行了评述。研究对于我国旅游开发、地理研究、城乡规划等具有参考价值。     

Recent differential population growth in Sumatra: 1961–71

Sumatran population growth and influences

Sumatra, Indonesia's large western Outer Island region, had general, urban and rural rates of population growth during 1961–71 as much as 50% or higher than those for the remainder of Indonesia. The rapid population growth in Sumatra, continuing into the later 1970s, has been associated with a variety of influences. Among these were:

1. New or improved economic activities encompassing large‐scale extraction of crude oil, natural gas, tin, bauxite, and forest products; some coal mining; continued fisheries, commercial small‐holder and estate types of agriculture; and new or expanded manufacturing.

2. Large‐scale transmigration, in‐migration from elsewhere in Indonesia other than Java and Bali, and intramigration within Sumatra have led to increased populations and densities in at least five major areas. The southern area of Lampung Province and to a lesser extent eastern South Sumatra have had notable growth from transmigration flows; several coastal plains areas in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Riau, and Jambi provinces, from upland to lowland or other in‐ and intra‐migration flows.

3. Traditional ethnic, religious, and regional linkages within a predominantly rural village system have remained strong. These cultural conditions provide a background for understanding the continuing overwhelming rural character of Sumatra's people.

4. Although urban growth was more rapid than rural growth in Sumatra during 1961–71, most of this urban growth was concentrated in and around a few relatively large urban centres; the remainder of the urban growth was in the many other urban places, most having the aspect of overgrown villages.

5. Differential growth rates for total, rural, and urban populations were associated with differing perceptions at local, provincial, Sumatra‐wide, or national levels — of the areas having the best opportunities for improved living. With a few exceptions, Sumatra's upland areas have lost large numbers of people to near‐by and only recently highly accessible lowlands. Small, but crucially important, numbers of ambitious and more highly educated people have left Sumatra for Jakarta or other areas of actual and perceived greater economic opportunity.

6. In 1971 the sharply contrasting and increasing population densities of Sumatra emphasized several areas of greater economic development on the one hand; areas of continued limited accessibility or economic activities oil the other. If trends of the 1961–71 decade persist, the 1981 Indonesian census results for Sumatra should indicate increased populations and densities, particularly in the southern Lampung area of agricultural inflow and in the lowlands around Sumatra's large cities which also should continue to have sizeable population increases.

     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

Social-Demographic Aspects of Urbanization in the USSR

A certain measure of agreement is found between rates of urbanization and industrialization, with the agreement far greater with total growth of urban population than with the concentration of urban population in big cities. This finding is thought to be significant support for those who contend that limitations on big-city growth are desirable and will not have an adverse effect on industrial development. Migration from the countryside continues to be the main source of urbanization, although its significance has greatly declined as natural increase of the urban population has risen. Migration in general is thought to be desirable because it helps redistribute the able-bodied population between the agricultural and industrial sectors of the economy and provides a channel for social mobility of rural youth. However, the magnitude and composition of rural-urban migration in some regions is having an adverse effect on the economy and requires more effective regulation.     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

WHEN AND HOW DOES COMMUTING TO CITIES INFLUENCE RURAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH?

This paper estimates the influence that rural‐to‐urban commuting has on rural employment growth, and whether the strength and spatial reach of this effect depend on commuters’ levels of education. A main finding is that rural‐to‐urban commuting has a robust positive impact on rural employment growth in services and retail. There is no significant difference in how far these effects reach into rural Sweden for commuters with different levels of education. These results suggest that a viable policy for local employment growth in rural areas with reasonable commuting times to urban centers is to improve the commuting to urban centers.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

PECULIARITIES IN THE FORMATION OF POPULATED PLACES ON THE SEABOARD OF THE USSR

A number of investigators have noted a movement of Soviet population toward the seacoasts, contrasting with the nation's traditional inland development. The pull of the coast has been linked to the increasing foreign trade of the USSR and to greater involvement in ocean affairs in general. The author analyzes the recent growth of maritime urban places in terms of the nation's major maritime regions: Azov-Black Sea, Baltic, Caspian, Pacific and Arctic, compares the rates of urban population growth and discusses some of the factors that account for differences in regional development.     

农村贫困化与空心化耦合发展的空间分异及影响因素研究

农村贫困化与空心化是乡村地域系统衰退的主要表征和关键内因，在当前乡村振兴初期和脱贫攻坚决胜期，深入探究二者间互动关系，有助于了解乡村发展阶段，缓解深度贫困，促进城乡融合发展。本文以宁夏同心县为例，采用MPI和人口空心化综合评价法测算农村贫困化与空心化程度，并进行耦合发展空间分析和影响因素探测。结果表明：①农村贫困化与空心化耦合程度呈现低、中、高3种趋势交替出现的“北低南高”空间分布格局，高度耦合区多集中于南部山区；②乡村地域系统衰退程度与耦合度空间分布基本吻合，贫困地区乡村普遍处于亚健康和非健康发展状态；③农村自然条件和资源禀赋是影响乡村发展的基础因素，区位条件是其重要因素，经济基础则是其决定性因素，各因子之间相互作用增加了乡村地域系统发展的复杂性。     

上海城市功能与人口郊区迁移的特征和影响分析

随着我国进入城市化发展高峰期,城市产业功能和人口的郊区化趋势日益显著,速度不断加快。在我国特有的城乡二元化管理体制下,郊区化过程中城市人口与产业功能的郊区迁移对城市结构转型以及郊区城市化具有怎样的影响仍需要进一步探讨分析。本文根据区县一级的城市建设与人口等相关统计数据,总结近十年来上海城市功能和人口郊区迁移过程中城市空间结构转型的主要特征,分析郊区化对郊区人口城市化、城镇建设与产业发展的影响作用,辨明其中存在的主要问题,并从城市功能布局合理化和促进郊区发展的角度出发提出对策建议。     

中国城乡协调发展空间格局与演化研究

本文从三个方面构建了城乡协调发展度指数,对中国2000-2008年31个省城乡协调发展程度的整体变化及在大区上的空间差异进行了评价和原因探讨。结果显示,中国城乡协调发展程度整体呈现上升趋势,主要原因是城乡增长率差异系数的降低,说明我国近些年的支农惠农和统筹城乡发展的政策效果显著。东部和西部地区城乡发展逐步协调,而中部和东北地区城乡发展协调度下降。东部城市和农村基本实现共同富裕,而西部是较低水平上的协调。东北地区先大幅下降后缓慢上升,中部地区的城乡协调发展度目前是最低的,变化较为复杂。