Multiagent Systems and the Dynamics of a Settlement System

In order to simulate the evolution of a system of settlements with a dynamic model, many processes must be integrated: the spatial aggregation of population, the complexification of urban activities, and the increasing hierarchical differentiation of settlements. The model must also simulate the progressive structuration of the settlement system through a growing variety and enlarged range of interactions between its elements. “Multiagent systems” provides a flexible modeling method for dealing with the multiple spatial interactions of cooperation and competition and relations that generate and regulate the evolution of a settlement system. Its principles are described and applied to building an evolutionary model, including a simulation tool. The model combines economic and spatial rules to produce birth, growth, decline, and functional diversification of the towns. The “urban transition” from an agrarian settlement system toward a hierarchical system of trade- and manufacturing-oriented towns and cities can be simulated.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

Regional and Local Settlement Areas (with particular reference to the Leningrad regional and Pskov local settlement areas)

Past Soviet attempts to define settlement areas have focused either on urban or on rural population areas. An attempt is made here to define combined urban and rural settlement areas, with particular reference to the Northwest Region, centered on Leningrad. A regional settlement area (centered on Leningrad) and a number of local settlement areas, centered on major cities, are differentiated, with so-called zones of disseminated settlement situated outside the limits of the local areas. The local settlement area of Pskov is discussed in detail, with a breakdown into three concentric zones based on the intensity of linkages with the central city.     

长江三角洲都市连绵区城市规模结构演变研究

本文选取长江三角洲都市连绵区7个年份的城市人口规模数据,分别从城市规模等级结构、首位度、城市规模分形以及城市规模的空间演化等层面对城市规模结构的演变进行了分析,初步揭示了长江三角洲都市连绵区规模结构的分布特征和演变规律,并对其空间演变特征进行了总结。     

试论乡村聚落体系的规划组织

乡村地理学是人文地理的重要分枝学科,乡村聚落的演化是乡村地理学的重要研究内容。在新的经济、社会发展背景中,乡村的意义与价值正在被重新认识,对其进行合理的规划组织,以形成与区域宏观社会经济背景相匹配的聚落体系,对城乡区域空间的整体协调发展具有重要的现实意义。文章阐述了乡村聚落体系演化理论、规划组织理论。关于乡村聚落体系演化,本文提出了区域空间进程中的四个阶段:农业社会阶段、过渡性阶段、工业化阶段、技术工业和高消费阶段。文章还研究了国际上对乡村聚落体系组织的战略方法,包括职能地域一体化战略、选择性空间封闭战略、乡村城市发展战略。文章结合江苏的有关案例,重点论述了中心镇及中心村选建、设施配置、政策配套等内容,指出:①通过中心镇的建设实现乡镇合并、重组;②通过中心村的建设实现农业空间的集约化经营,推动城市化进程;③通过配套支撑体系来实现对乡村聚落体系优化的引导。提出了中心村选建的主要标准:①区位优势;②联系合理;③规模经济;④节约用地。     

风险视角下的城市聚落形成模拟

幂次法则是普遍存在于自然科学和社会科学界的现象,而城市位序-规模法则是幂次法则在城市科学中的体现之一,然而特定城市规模分布一直缺乏完整的解释。本文尝试结合城市增长过程中土地开发行为的报酬递增规则与土地开发主体的风险认知行为,以城市增长的微观过程为切入视角模拟宏观城市聚落演化过程,进而探讨风险态度对城市聚落形态,尤其是对其规模分布的影响。研究结果表明：①即使城市聚落演化过程中存在多种风险态度,幂次法则在城市聚落的规模分布中仍保持着稳健性; ②现实世界中城市聚落规模分布的变异和稳定可能来自城市主体风险态度的多样性。     

NODAL ELEMENTS OF REGIONAL SUPPORT FRAMEWORKS FOR SETTLEMENT

The author extends his earlier work on the concept of a support framework for settlement (i.e., interconnected linear and nodal elements supporting the activities and needs of population within the settlement system), developed initially for the Caucasus region, to the entire country. A five-level hierarchy of urban nodes, ranging from highly developed agglomerations to small and medium-sized cities, is proposed, which is used to analyze the level of urban support provided in the major economic regions of the USSR. (Translated by Jay Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005.)     

经济转型期中原城市群地区城镇规模结构演变分析

经济转型期中原城市群地区的城镇规模结构发生了深刻的变化。利用1985年与2003年的人口规模数据,分别对该区进行城镇规模级别结构演变分析、位序-规模分布分析以及规模结构演变数量分析,初步探讨经济转型期中原城市群地区.城镇规模结构的分布状况和演变特征,指出存在的问题,并提出相应的对策。     

The specifics and spatial structure of circular migration in Russia

Abstract

This article aims at distinguishing recurrent population movements within the territory of the Russian Federation between urban localities of different sizes and rural areas in connection to the processes of urbanization, suburbanization, and de-urbanization. Incomplete urbanization and the strong polarization of socio-economic space in Russia have resulted in two powerful contradictory population flows: centrifugal seasonal sub- and de-urbanization and centripetal labor migration from rural and small towns to large urban centers. The article discusses three forms of recurrent population mobility in Russia: (1) daily commuting of urban and rural inhabitants within metropolitan areas; (2) commuting to large cities and their suburbs for long-term employment intervals (weekly, monthly, etc.), (3) second-home commuting to countryside dachas. Unfinished urbanization in Russia not only attracts rural and small towns’ population to major cities but also keeps it within the latter. It slows down the real de-urbanization and induces specific dachas (second-home) suburbanization/de-urbanization, with these processes being closely interrelated. An opportunity to earn money in cities together with the impossibility of moving to major centers due to expensive housing encourages households to remain in small towns and rural areas. Meanwhile, inhabited rural localities (even ones distant from cities) attract seasonal population (dachniks).     

吉林省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。通过统计数据计算分析,运用分形理论,发现吉林省城市体系等级规模结构满足位序-规模分布规律,城市规模分布的均衡程度较高,中小城市比较发育,首位城市垄断作用不突出,缺乏大城市。在吉林省城市体系动态变化过程中,等级规模结构相对稳定且不断趋于集中。在此基础上提出重点培育通化、延吉等大城市;继续扩大长春规模,发挥整体效益;加强交通网络建设;加快矿业城市可持续发展等建议。     

滇黔桂省际边界区域城镇经济联系的网络结构特征与演化分析

以滇黔桂省际边界区域28个城镇为例,构建城镇中心性评价指标体系,利用改进的熵值法测度各城镇的中心性得分,评价滇黔桂省际边界区域经济空间结构演变,利用修正的引力模型测度了1995年、2004年、2014年3个年份各城镇之间经济联系强度;借助GIS技术手段分析了城镇经济联系强度的空间格局,评价城镇等级体系演化特征;最后利用社会网络分析方法考察了城镇经济空间联系和网络关系的演化规律,得出如下结论：滇黔桂省际边界区域中心城市逐渐形成,经济重心由南向北转移,由右江区单中心逐步发展到兴义市、右江区、文山市三中心,再到兴义市发展成为强中心,平果县与靖西市具备发展为滇黔桂次中心城镇的潜力;城镇间的经济联系总体较弱,区域整体网络密度低,但呈现出不断增强的趋势,低等级城镇对高等级城镇的引力与高等级城镇对低等级城市的引力不同,形成两种不同的城镇网络体系,经济联系紧密地区主要集中在中心城市之间及中心城市与经济强县之间;三角结构的外围经济联系密度明显较低,对于大多数城镇来说,尚不具备经济辐射能力,辐射效应极弱。     

基于分形理论的长株潭城市群等级规模结构研究及对策

运用城市群等级规模结构分形理论和方法,对长株潭"3+5"城市群(以下简称"3+5"城市群)的等级规模结构进行了实证研究,通过测算几年来"3+5"城市群等级规模分布的分维值,得出结论:"3+5"城市群规模分布符合分形特征;模型拟合认为其人口、经济分布的分维值均大于1,表明"3+5"城市群等级规模结构集中,已处于发展的相对成熟阶段。为此在对这些特征做出解释的基础上,认为可从强化首位城市、加快长株潭一体化建设、提升次中心城市、重点发展中小城市、加快小城镇建设等方面着手对长株潭城市群等级规模结构进行优化。     

The Conception of a Unified System of Settlement and the Planned Regulation of city Growth in the USSR

A unified system of settlement, defined as an interrelated network of places that is regulated for the benefit of society, is viewed as the most effective approach to overcoming socio-economic differences between town and countryside. Such a settlement system is viewed as ultimately replacing the present settlement patterns ranging from large urban agglomerations at one extreme to small rural places without adequate services at the other extreme. The unified settlement system is expected to insure roughly equivalent living and working conditions for all people within such a system. Some of the recent changes in Soviet settlement patterns are viewed as steps in that direction: an expansion of the network of large cities in connection with the economic development of new regions; the policy of industrializing small towns bypassed by the previous development of industry; the growing practice of establishing research organizations and branch plants in small towns to foster their development; the mechanization and industrialization of animal husbandry; the improvement of rural bus lines, providing access to service centers.     

The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

新时期新疆边境城镇体系构建和口岸小城镇发展

新疆所处区位条件决定了边境的稳定与发展在整个区域经济中占据重要位置。把城市化和对外开放结合起来,通过边境城镇体系的构建来密切边境城镇与腹地的联系具有积极作用。边境城镇体系通过交通轴线的连接,对不同层次、不同职能分工的核心、节点、边境城市和口岸小城镇进行空间纵深配置,从而发挥对外开放的城镇整体优势。口岸型小城镇是边境城镇体系的前沿,最具特色。在发展条件较好,规模较大的口岸可考虑直接设立建制镇。在一些自身设镇条件不足的口岸,可考虑与地方、兵团联合设镇,协调管理。     

泉州市城市化发展战略的新思考

面对新时期泉州市城市化发展环境的改变,制定切实可行的城市化发展战略显得尤为迫切。本文首先通过对泉州市人均GDP、人均国民收入与城市化相互关系的分析,初步判断泉州的城市化发展目前正处于迅速集聚阶段。进而提出,泉州应构筑以城市为中心,以中心城为核心的现代化城镇体系。在具体建设模式上,把中心城建成富有竞争力的特大城市,从而培育地区增长极、提升区域综合竞争力以及优化中心城功能结构;以"新城"模式建设各县城,使其成为城市化过程中人口和产业集聚的重要基地;按小城市模式建设中心镇,以构筑地区增长极和建设现代企业载体。     

土默特平原聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素分析(1934—2019)

选取土默特平原1934、1982和2019年的聚落人口数据,运用GIS空间分析法,定性与定量结合分析研究区聚落分布形态演变及其驱动因素,结果表明,1934—2019年土默特平原以小聚落为主,大规模聚落数量和比例逐年增加,人口等级结构由“扁平”向“长高”金字塔形转变。聚落空间分布整体呈现集聚分布特征,大规模聚落集聚性不显著,其他规模的聚落分布模式由随机向集聚转变,研究区人口极化现象显著;聚落空间分布非均衡发展趋势明显,呈现由极核式向点轴式演变的迹象;聚落网络联系的空间近邻效应显著,人口规模较大的中心城区成为强联系节点。地形、河流、交通是研究区聚落分布形态演变的主要驱动因素,聚落低海拔、邻河流、邻干道、邻城镇的指向性强。该研究便于厘清土默特平原近百年聚落分布形态的演变脉络,为当地聚落的空间布局优化与调控提供一定参考价值。     

我国历史文化村镇保护的内容与方法研究

历史化村镇是我国遗产保护体系的重要组成部分,随着第一批中国历史化名镇(村)的命名公布。遗产保护工作又进入了一个崭新阶段。我国历史化村镇保护研究较国外起步较晚,相关研究也欠深入全面。导致在当前城镇化快速发展过程中,一些颇具价值特色的古村镇没有得到很好保护。本首先回顾了国内外历史小城镇、村落保护的演变发展,然后指出历史化村镇保护在价值特性方面,不同于历史化名城;在保护内容方面,要在以往偏重于物质化遗产保护的基础上。进一步加重非物质化遗产的保护;在保护方法方面,要综合运用历史学、地理学、建筑学、社会学、景观生态学等方法,才能达到较好的保护效果。     

湖南省市镇规模等级结构的动态研究

本文应用市镇人口规模分布理论,研究了湖南省城市人口规模分布结构的动态变化及其基本特征。同时构造了2000年湖南省市镇序秩--规模分布模型,并利用logistic函数对预测结果进行了验证。预测表明:2000年南省市镇人口、市镇化水平分别约为2174万和32%,特大城市和大城市将扩大为长沙、衡阳、湘潭、株洲、岳阳和常德六市。据此对2000年湖南省市镇等级体系进行了规划。     

Shrinkage,Metropolization and Peripheralization in East Germany

Since around 2000, there has been extensive research on questions regarding shrinkage and urban renewal in Germany after a task force report revealed approximately 1.4 million vacant flats in East Germany. Since then, most towns and cities have been labelled “shrinking cities” there. While from a planning perspective urban decline and also shrinking cities are widely studied phenomena throughout the industrialized world and a substantial literature exists on the phenomenon in Germany, the impact of political debates and normative considerations is under-researched. This paper highlights the role of political–normative ideas of metropolization and societal relations within this complex core–periphery process, elaborating on the concept of peripheralization and calling for further research.