THE PERIODICITY OF DROUGHTS IN THE GRAIN-GROWING AREAS OF THE USSR

On the basis of a chronology of droughts in the grain-growing regions of the USSR, compiled from historical sources and the more recent period of instrumental observations, the author shows that the occurrence of drought may be regarded as a random process characterized as a quasi-stationary Poisson series of events. Most of the grain regions in the USSR follow this regularity. In the case of simultaneous drought throughout the principal grain zone of the USSR, comprising the European part and the Midland region (West Siberia and Kazakhstan), the sequence of events assumes a nonstationary character. Statistical parameters are developed for the time series of drought years and nondrought years, and are compared with extreme values in grain-yield fluctuations. Over the last 140 years, drought occurred in 76 years in at least one of the three major grain regions of the USSR (European part, West Siberia, Kazakhstan) while 64 years had no drought and corresponding normal or higher yields. A catastrophic drought affecting all three grain regions simultaneously is virtually (95%) certain to occur at least once in 20 years.     

THE VARIOUS RUSSIAN WORDS FOR SNOWSTORM

The Russian language has four distinct words for “snowstorm,” and there is a need for precise definition and proper regional context. Metel' is the common term for wind-driven snow. V'yuga is a common literary term for snowstorm. Buran is a regional term associated with the southern Urals and adjacent regions of Orenburg, Kazakhstan and West Siberia. Purga, sometimes used as a synonym for blizzard, entered Russian from Finnish, and has a regional association with northern Russia and northern Siberia. (The article was proposed by Victor L. Mote of the University of Houston, who also assisted with the translation.)     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

The Ob' will enter the Caspian: the Yenisey-Ob'-Aral-Caspian Water Connection and the Energy Problem

An early 1949 version of Davydov's grandiose scheme for diverting water from the Yenisey and Ob' Rivers to Kazakhstan and Central Asia via the Turgay Gates and the Aral and Caspian Seas in order to stabilize the level of the Caspian, expand the irrigated acreage of Kazakhstan and Central Asia, generate abundant hydro-electric power, provide a cheap water transport route between Siberia and Central Asia, eliminate sukhovei (dry winds) at their source, and ameliorate the continental climate of Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia. The plan reflects the anthropocentric “transformation of nature” and the large-scale “great projects of communism” drives of the late Stalinist period. The translation was prepared by James R. Gibson of York University, Toronto.     

GEOGRAPHICAL ASPECTS OF A TERRITORIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

A set of principles for a geographical research program relating to the future impact of major interbasin water transfers is outlined. Such a program, evaluating the impact of proposed tranfers both in the European USSR and in the Midland Region of Western Siberia, Kazakhstan and Central Asia, should be based on the following considerations. Noneconomic criteria, such as the environmental impact of water transfers, must be given as much attention as economic and engineering criteria. Experience suggests that any measures designed to protect or ameliorate the environment, for example, inland fisheries, should precede actual water-project construction by at least 15 to 20 years. North-south transfers should be so designed as to benefit both the northern region, from which water is to be withdrawn, and the southern region, where water resources are to be enhanced. The problem of interbasin transfers should be accompanied by a program of intensification of water use, measured by a reduction of water input into the economy per unit of output. Water use can be intensified by such measures as shifting grain production from south to north and building irrigation reservoirs in Central Asian mountains to regulate runoff.     

Problems in the Methodology of Measuring and Mapping the Level of Economic Development of the USSR

Economic development levels in the USSR are measured and mapped on the basis of an aggregate of three density parameters: the value of plant and equipment; the value of gross output, and population numbers, all per unit area. Data on the value of plant and on gross output are not available below the oblast level, and in the case of small oblasts in Central Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia, economic development levels within oblasts have been assumed to be relatively uniform. Large oblasts, especially in Siberia, required a further breakdown within oblasts, and in such cases the value of plant and gross output were allocated in proportion to population density. Economic development levels were graded on an eight-interval scale, but no absolute values were given. A related attempt to measure and map economic productivity was made by A. F. Burghardt, in his paper on “Income density in the United States” (Annals Assoc. Amer. Geographers, Sept. 1972).     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE WEST SIBERIAN PLAIN

The various types of natural landscapes of West Siberia are analyzed in terms of the environmental impacts of the more common forms of human activity. These are natural gas extraction and reindeer herding in the northern tundra; oil extraction and logging in the middle taiga, and agriculture as well as manufacturing in the southern wooded steppe and steppe. The impacts of human activity on specific natural processes (cryogenesis, bog formation, salinization) are discussed. The territory of West Siberia is broken down into three types of environmental impact regions: regions of significant impacts (from oil and gas extraction and agriculture); regions of moderate impacts (from logging and reindeer herding); and a region in which natural landscape structures have remained virtually unaffected by human activity.     

THE ORIGINS OF THE ANDRONOVO (FEDOROVKA) POPULATION OF SOUTHWESTERN SIBERIA,BASED ON A MIDDLE BRONZE AGE CRANIAL SERIES FROM THE ALTAI FOREST-STEPPE ZONE

A multivariate analysis of measurements taken from Andronovo (Fedorovka) cranial samples from the forest-steppe part of the Altai has revealed certain components that are likely to have contributed to the origins of this population. One component, resembling the robust (Cro-Magnon) variety observed in many Andronovo groups, would appear to have been introduced by migrants from the Kazakhstan steppes. Another component – Mediterranean, i.e., characterized by dolichocrany and narrow face, stemmed from the pre-Andronovo Bronze Age populations of southwestern Siberia, being especially noticeable in Andronovo (Fedorovka) groups of Rudny Altai and decreasing in the eastern and northern directions. The third component, on the contrary, becomes more and more prominent as one moves northward. This component was evidently associated with the Western Siberian native peoples. Its proportion in the forest-steppe zone of the Altai was minor, while being larger in the sub-taiga regions situated to the north.     

THE NONCHERNOZEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AND PROSPECTIVE SPATIAL SHIFTS IN GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE AGRICULTURAL TRIANGLE OF THE SOVIET UNION

The Soviet program to proceed from further expansion of the grain area in the semi-arid steppe zone to intensification of graingrowing in the humid Nonchernozem Zone after decades of neglect is considered a landmark decision in the history of Soviet agriculture. If successfully carried out, the Nonchernozem program might yield by the late 1980s a grain increment equivalent to the amount now being imported by the Soviet Union for its own needs and for re-export to its allies. The implementation of the Non-chernozem program would also have consequences for regional grain-production patterns in the Soviet Union. The Nonchernozem Zone would be in a position to make a more significant contribution to the demand for grain in the industrial centers of European Russia, thus easing the pressure on the virgin lands of northern Kazakhstan and reducing the need for the present long grain hauls. Finally, a greater shift of grain production into the humid Nonchernozem would be in keeping with a program of water economies since grain output in the humid zone requires less than half of the water needed for grain production in the arid zone. The success of the Nonchernozem program is conditioned on greater attention to the development of rural infrastructure, particularly roads, which the author considers a key element in upgrading the agriculture of the region.     

Manpower Resources as a Key Element in the Economic Geography of an Area

Economic-geographic regional studies have largely neglected manpower resources. Moreover such studies have been concerned mainly with major civil divisions, such as republics, krays and oblasts, which in the case of Siberia assume very large size. Average data for such large areas, particularly in the manpower field, obscure intra-regional differences. The author describes a methodology for determining the number of persons who are occupied with household chores and are not employed in the national economy. The determination of the number of persons not employed in the economy makes it possible to plan increases in production by shifting such manpower reserves into industry or agriculture without the need for additional in-migration.     

GLOBAL WARMING AND THE AGROCLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE RUSSIAN PLAIN

Possible future USSR agricultural productivity, given a global warming scenario, is assessed on the basis of paleoclimatic reconstructions for optima of the Holocene and Mikulino interglacial, which may be analogs of the man-modified warm climate of the future. The calculations were made using a dynamic model of grain yields for 94 territorial units, for the most part coincident with the boundaries of oblasts. Three different indicators, which suggest that the warming trend of climate will be generally favorable for agriculture in the European USSR, are analyzed. The paper also provides insights into current spatial patterns of agricultural productivity. Translated by Larry Richardson, Glendale, CA 91202 from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1990, No. 6, pp. 29-38.     

THE WATER ASPECT OF THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGRICULTURE IN THE USSR

The long-term grain requirements of the growing Soviet population are calculated. On the basis of the relationship between water use and grain yields by natural soil zones of the USSR, the authors show that the amount of water needed per unit of output declines with a growth of productivity, especially in the non-chernozem zone of the Soviet Union. It is therefore concluded that greater water savings might be assured by expanding grain production in zones with an adequate supply of natural moisture rather than by the use of artificial irrigation of arid lands.     

REGIONAL ASPECTS OF DUST STORMS IN STEPPE REGIONS OF THE EAST EUROPEAN AND WEST SIBERIAN PLAINS

Two broad regions of the USSR most susceptible to dust storms, the southern East European Plain in the European USSR and the West Siberian Plain and adjacent areas of northern Kazakhstan, are contrasted according to a number of indicators of dust storm frequency and intensity. More specifically, the two regions, although roughly similar according to overall frequency of dust storms, were found to differ in terms of their interannual variability, years of peak activity, prevailing winds associated with dust storms, seasonal frequency, duration and erosive force of individual storms, and synoptic processes contributing to dust storm formation (translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005).     

ON THE STUDY OF SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS BY MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Two Soviet regional planners test several spatial interaction models with particular reference to the Kuznetsk Basin (Kemerovo Oblast), the southern belt of West Siberia and a portion of the North Caucasus (Krasnodar Kray). Existing techniques, such as gravity and potential models, are found to work well in areas with relatively uniform settlement patterns, such as the steppe zone of Krasnodar Kray or the southern Ob'-Irtysh subregion of West Siberia, but not in areas with sharp contrasts in settlement patterns, such as the Kuznetsk Basin, where a linear highly urbanized belt is enclosed between sparsely populated mountains. In such contrasting settings, a combination of methods is required.     

Transport Development of the Middle Ob'oil District

Two basic alternative transport systems are analyzed for the new oil-producing district along the Middle Ob'valley in West Siberia. One is the construction of a railroad parallel to the Ob' River; the other is the use of the waterway itself. Comparative cost analysis suggests that the railroad would be economical only for very large traffic volumes, not expectable in the foreseeable future. By 1980–1985, expected freight flows may justify construction of the western section of the proposed railroad in the oil district itself. Instead of an eastward extension, the author advocates a continuation toward the rich gas and possibly oil prospects in the northern part of the West Siberian plain, and ultimately to Noril'sk. The paper was published before the Soviet Union announced, in early 1970, that the accelerated development of the oil district required construction of the western section of the Ob'valley railroad in the 1970s.     

BASIC PRINCIPLES FOR A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF PRODUCTIVE FORCES IN THE NONCHERNOZEM ZONE OF THE RSFSR

A development strategy is proposed for the Nonchernozem zone of the European RSFSR, which is now the object of a major program of rural modernization (see S.G., March, April 1975). The principal factors affecting future strategy are geographical situation and physical setting, resource potential, level of economic development and settlement, availability of skilled labor and technical progress. The proposed strategy calls for focusing northern development on resource exploitation, fostering manufacturing development in the central oblasts outside the major industrial nodes, where industrial expansion should be restricted, and limiting industrial construction in the southern grain-growing oblasts to avoid diverting valuable agricultural land to nonfarm uses. The Nonchernozem zone will continue to be the nation's research and development center and aim at economic growth through intensive methods in view of a labor shortage.     

The Distribution of Lakes in the Northern Part of Western Siberia and the Inherited Development of Structures in the Recent Tectonic Stage

Lake cover in the northern part of Western Siberia is correlated with recent crustal movements. A high concentration of lakes is found to be associated with downwarps and a low lake-cover index with the crests of positive structures. Lake-cover maps can thus be used to predict the presence of structures in the sedimentary mantle of the West Siberian plain as an aid in oil and gas prospecting. If the median of the frequency distribution of lakes is assumed to be the relative zero level of differential crustal movements in a particular region, the deciles for the distribution can be converted into a numerical scale suggesting the relative positive and negative movements in the neotectonic framework. The intensity and direction of these movements, as derived from lake-cover analysis, may serve as an additional aid in prospecting for oil and gas.     

The Role of the Eastern Regions in the Economy of the USSR

The economic development of the eastern regions, including Siberia and the Far East, Kazakhstan and Central Asia, has been hampered by manpower shortages (except in Central Asia) and the high cost of construction. However the generally more favorable conditions for resource development are viewed as a sound basis for further industrialization of the Eastern regions, focusing on fossil fuels and electric power and on industries consuming large amounts of fuel and power (nonferrous and ferrous metals, some chemicals, and forest products). In view of the need for integrated regional development, primary resource-based industries should be supplemented by some manufacturing, particularly heavy machinery industries and pulp and paper. Savings in construction could be achieved by investing in territorial-production complexes with interrelated industries and common engineering and transport systems.     

The Location of the Boundary Between the Tropical and Subtropical Landscapes in Eastern Asia (Based on material from a field study of yünnan)

The author, another opponent of large reservoirs in Western Siberia, analyzes the effect of such large inland water areas on the moisture and heat supply of the region. He predicts that the construction of a reservoir would result in a southward shift of the optimal moisture and heat conditions for agriculture and would have an adverse cooling effect on climate, especially In summer.     

Specific Peculiarities of the West Siberian Economic Complex

The development of the newly discovered oil and gas resources and expansion of timber production in Western Siberia are hampered by a harsh physical environment and climate, the absence of transport routes, the lack of local building materials, and the need for attracting manpower from the outside. Despite these handicaps, however, the concentration of vast oil and gas reserves near the fuel-deficit regions of the Urals and Western Siberia is expected to make the development of these resources as well as of West Siberian timber economical.