Disaggregate Migration Behavior and the Volume of Interregional Migration

Nested multinomial logit models are used to investigate migration behavior during the 1971–74 period for a large sample of the population of Ecuador. The nested form of the model makes it possible to test hypotheses about the importance of destination characteristics in conditioning the odds for out-migration. Our empirical results indicate that the odds for migration from each origin are conditioned by the expected utilities of the available set of destinations, as well as characteristics of the origins and the personal characteristics of potential migrants. The association between destination characteristics and the frequency of out-migration allows the total volumes of migration to be adjusted to interregional differences in place-specific utilities.     

The Evolution of Migration: the Case of Lapita in the Southwest Pacific

Migrations have occurred across the history of the genus Homo and while the movement of pre-modern humans over the globe is typically understood in terms of shifting resource distributions and climate change, that is in ecological terms, the movement of anatomically modern, and specifically Holocene, populations is often explained by human desire to discover new lands, escape despotic leaders, forge trade relationships and other culture-specific intentions. This is a problematic approach to the archaeological and behavioural explanation of human migration. Here an evolutionary and ecological framework is developed to explain various movement behaviours and this framework is applied to the movement of human groups from the inter-visible islands around New Guinea to the widely dispersed archipelagos of the southwest Pacific about 1000 BC. Labelled the Lapita Migration, this movement is explained as a selection-driven range expansion. The development of evolutionary and ecological theory to explain human movement facilitates empirical testing of alternative hypotheses and links different histories of human movement through shared explanatory mechanisms.     

《前秦建元籍》与汉唐间籍帐制度的变化

《前秦建元籍》是目前所见最早的纸本户籍,其第三栏登载的是每户的赀产状况,而非财产转移的记录。该文书标明三月籍,不同于秦汉时期的八月造籍和唐代的正月造籍,这可能与当时特定的历史背景有关。该籍中户主的籍贯分别注明州、郡、县、乡、里,与秦汉三国时期的户籍简只注明里名有很大差异,说明纸本户籍不再局限于保存在乡、县,而是要进一步上呈郡、州,直至中央机构。从登载的内容和统计的重点看,《前秦建元籍》与走马楼户籍简中的凡口若干一类性质相近;但以往的户籍简是一年更造,该籍与南朝户籍则是数年一造,据此可以推测当时的纸本户籍背后已有每年度编造的计帐类文书存在。     

清代前中期陕甘地区的人口西迁

清代前中期陕甘地区的人口西迁是在清朝势力不断向西北推进的大背景下产生的,西迁人口主要有官方移民、民间自发移民和绿营兵丁及其眷属三种类型组成,官方组织陕甘人口西迁的主要动力先后经历过三次大的转折,因时而异的移民管理体系为移民的顺利推进提供了坚实的制度保障。至嘉庆末,迁入安西地区的陕甘移民及其后裔约10万人,迁入新疆地区的陕甘移民及其后裔可能接近或超过55万人,其中大约有六成左右的西迁人口不在官方户口统计范围之内。     

周秦都邑迁徙的比较研究

周秦不仅多次迁徙其都邑 ,而且迁徙的相近之处颇多。二者都是从关中以外迁都于周原以后才强盛起来的 ,而作为其逐鹿中原夺取天下的重要步骤 ,周秦又都向东迁都。周人迁于丰 ,定于镐 ,秦人先居泾阳、栎阳 ,定于咸阳 ,最后选择的区域非常接近。当然 ,周秦都邑的迁徙与选址仍存在不少具体的差异 ,如迁往周原选择都城时 ,周人是一踯而就 ,建立了岐周 ,而秦人却是经过多次临时选择 ,多年后才定鼎雍城 ;向东迁都的具体路线也不一致 ,周人偏于渭水南岸 ,而秦人则在渭北经营很久     

Contemporary Migration in the USSR

The predominance of individual migration and a lack of coordination among government agencies result in a situation in which migration in the USSR often works at counter-purposes, with people moving away from areas suffering from a labor shortage and into areas with a labor surplus. A system of economic measures is advocated to optimize Soviet migration patterns. Since differences in living conditions are the basic motive between migration, an effort should be made to establish relationships between region al living standards that would attract migrants to regions with a labor shortage and induce them to settle permanently, instead of taking temporary advantage of high wage rates.     

The Welfare Economics of Rural-To-Urban Migration: The Harris-Todaro Model Revisited

In this paper we extend the Harris-Todaro model of rural-to-urban migration to include urban agglomeration effects, some urban real wage flexibility, and a government budget constraint. Without employment subsidies laissez-faire migration is excessive unless real wage flexibility and agglomeration effects are high. Laissez-faire migration is too low compared with the first-best outcome supported by a subsidy, if its financing involves no costs. Simulations suggest that such a program would imply a substantial increase in taxation. If, as seems likely, an increase of this magnitude involves economic costs then the optimal outcome falls well short of first-best.     

The Geographic Components of Change in a Migration System

A method for deriving a set of geographic components of temporal change in a system of interregional flows is proposed and applied in an analysis of U.S. interstate migration in the early 1980s. Dynamic change in net migration is conceptualized to consist of system-growth, system-mobility, geographic mix, and competitive components. Hypotheses concerning the structural dynamics of migration systems are suggested, as are some implications for migration-modeling techniques.     

中国古代的避病移居习俗

中国古代有避病移居的习俗,即在某人生病之时,移居他处,希望以此康复。这种习俗源远流长,对它进行一番探讨,可以更好地了解中国古代的民俗文化。     

The Present State and Basic Problems in the Study of Migration in the USSR

A review of Soviet migration research finds that only a modest beginning has been made despite some useful results. Further progress in this area requires broader migration studies, beyond the manpower-oriented approach adopted thus far; wider use of mathematical techniques and improved research methods; improvements in the statistical data base on migration, and the coordination of Soviet migration research through the establishment of a central research center in this field.     

The State of the Art in Modeling Migration in LDCS: A Comment

Early research on migration in LDCs, initially motivated by labor market postulates offered by Harris and Todaro, built upon general equilibrium models of interregional trade. In contrast, recent research on migration (such as Brueckner and Kim in this issue) builds upon a partial equilibrium analysis that is based on an urban land model. There are subtle differences between these models that complicate intermodel comparisons. The current paper, motivated by this complexity, has three purposes: (1) a mathematical explication of the state of the art in migration modeling, (2) a provision of further insights into the Todaro paradox, and (3) a suggestion for future research predicated on melding the urban land and interregional literatures.     

明清时期陕西境内的人口迁移

时清时期是我国历史上人口迁移极其频繁的时代。本文主要探讨明清两代今陕西省境内的人口迁移过程,包括人口迁移的原因、形式、迁移数量、外来移民的地区分布等。在此基础上,本文还分析总结了外来移民对迁入地区的人口分布、经济开发、自然环境等方面的影响。本文认为,由于外来移民的大量迁入,明清时期陕南许多山区得到广泛开垦,耕地面积大为增加,土地开发利用程度超过历史上任何时期,客观上促进了各有关迁入区经济的发展。但由于大肆毁林开荒,盲目扩大耕地面积,致使陕南山区自然环境遭到严重破坏,自然灾害频频发生,从而制约当地经济的持续发展。这一教训我们应引以为诫。     

Prospects of Population Migration in the USSR

The author offers a methodology for estimating inter-regional population flows in the USSR for the next quarter of a century. The method is based on expected regional manpower needs related to a model of the future distribution of production. Corrections are made for expected regional differences in the need for live labor [depending on the level of mechanization], in rates of natural increase and in the degree of mobility of the population of certain regions.     

The Effect of Job Advertising Policies on Interregional Labor Migration

A simulation model of a multiregional labor migration process is developed. Information about employment conditions in alternative regions is transmitted in a combination of three channels. The adopted emission policies directly control the amount of information available to potential migrants which, in turn, determines the potential migrant's perception of the level of welfare in the other regions. The effect of several different advertising policies on migration streams is examined. Employers can pursue a number of policies designed to maximize their return. Other agencies adopt policies that facilitate the matching process between unemployed workers and vacant jobs. Results are presented for a number of simulation experiments.