The Aral Sea Problem and its Solution

A hydrogeologist suggests that nine-tenths of the present stream flow into the Aral Sea can be diverted for other purposes without causing the sea to dry up. The diversion would cause the sea level to drop by 12 meters, where it would stabilize because of a greater intake of subsurface runoff resulting from an increased artesian pressure differential, and because the draining of flooded shore areas and the drying up of reed growths will make more water available through savings in evaporation and transpiration.     

The Aral Sea Crisis and Its Future: An Assessment in 2006

An American geographer and noted international authority on water management problems in Russia and Central Asia presents an account of an expedition, in late 2005 (under the sponsorship of the National Geographic Society) to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focused on the Aral Sea. The steadily drying inland sea, with a surface area of 67,500 km² in 1960, had split into two parts and shrunk to 17,380 km2 in 2006. The paper provides an up-to-date overview of the crisis and presents an optimistic scenario of the sea's future, noting development of economic activities (particularly fisheries) in its surrounding settlements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O13, Q15, Q25. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

The Aral Sea Basin Crisis: Transition and Environment in Former Soviet Central Asia

The haunting picture of a disappearing Aral Sea is just part of an overall environmental crisis in the Aral Sea Basin, where millions of people are dependent on agricultural production around the flows of two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Forced cotton cultivation in the former Soviet Union, in the context of inefficient agricultural organization and production, caused water mismanagement, salinization, water and soil contamination, erosion and the desiccation of the Aral Sea. In the post-Soviet era of ‘transition’, the governments of the Central Asian states and international donors have tried to mitigate the impact of the crisis and contain its scope. Resource-based tensions in the region reflect national (and sometimes ethnic) interests vested in the crucial agricultural sectors that provide foreign exchange and food. Although the Central Asian governments are gradually formulating regional water, land and salt management strategies, the room for manoeuvre that exists to implement policies which would immediately improve the environment, such as efficient water management and sustainable land use, is not being sufficiently utilized.     

国际油价波动对日本经济均衡的影响

2005年以来,国际原油价格剧烈震荡,除实体经济层面的供求因素外,能源作为金融商品的虚拟经济属性被放大,预期、投机、突发事件、汇率波动因素等都可能成为引燃油价波动的导火索。新的油价变动特点,使日本更加难以保持经济的内外均衡。从内部看,企业、行业间的收入分配效应分散了油价上涨的通货膨胀效果,具有技术垄断优势、善于利用金融工具避险及有效采取能源分散化和节能措施的企业与行业受油价波动的冲击更小。从外部看,进口成本增加和出口成本转嫁不完全引起了日本贸易条件恶化;石油美元通过贸易渠道和资本渠道的回流,对日本的国际收支产生一定影响;日元升值因素一定程度上缓和了高油价的冲击。日本政府、企业、居民的不懈努力创造了日本经济超低能耗的奇迹,这个奇迹将日本抵御油价波动的能力变成现实。．     

On the Question of Regulating the Level of the Caspian Sea

The author tries to show that the level of the Caspian Sea could be stabilized at relatively low cost at its present low level without further damage to the coastal economy. He denies the need for costly projects designed to increase the inflow into the Caspian or to separate the shallow northern section from the main body of the sea. He maintains that water gained by diverting the northern streams into the Volga basin should be used to irrigate the arid Southeast rather than to replenish the water supply of the Caspian Sea.     

The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

The Development Impact of NGO Activities in the Red Sea Province of Sudan: A Critique

This article examines the results of, and the prospects for, the declared shift of NGOs from relief operations to development activities in the Red Sea Province of eastern Sudan. Statistical and qualitative information contained in the reports of NGOs themselves provides the main data source on which the analysis is based. Although NGOs have been successful in conducting massive relief operations in the area, the article asserts that they have not yet and are not expected to achieve any tangible results on the development front. The main reason for this is the apparent misconception of development on the part of the NGOs as an isolated, localized activity which they can perform; another is the NGOs' failure to recognize the difference in the methods, means and prerequisites necessary for relief and for development; a third is the failure of NGOs to equip local institutions to absorb and/or sustain any achieved ‘development’, since most NGOs operate in complete isolation from governmental and traditional Beja institutions.     

Discussion on the Symbolic Meanings of The Old Man and the Sea

The Old Man and the Sea is a novella which is created by American modern fictions writer Hemingway in 1952. And it is also the author＆#39;s last published novel during his lifetime. Once it appeared, it caused a strong international reper-cussions and set off a burst of＆quot;Hemingway hot＆quot;in literary circles at that time. It tells a story of Cuban fisherman Santiago who did not catch any fish in eighty-four sequential days. And at that case, he finally caught a big marlin by himself. But the fish is too big, he took three days to drag it exhausted and tied up in the side of his boat. However, fortune is fickle, he attacked by sharks repeatedly in the return journey. Finally, he returned to harbour with only a head, a tail and a spine of the fish. In such difficult conditions, Santiago went to sea again with a child.     

International and Regional Responses to the Aral Crisis: An Overview of Efforts and Accomplishments

An authoritative U.S. analyst of Central Asian water management problems, and former advisor to the Uzbek government on water management issues, surveys the nature and effectiveness of international and regional programs to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis. After first reviewing the history and magnitude of the crisis, the author assesses international and regional assistance programs during the late Soviet period and subsequent initial years of independence for the Central Asian republics within the Aral Basin. A concluding section includes policy recommendations based on the author's extensive experience in the field and familiarity with many of the principal organizations involved. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F35, Q15, Q25. 2 figures, 1 table, 32 references.     

The Transformation of the Caspian Sea

The author reviews the problem of the level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea, particularly the steady drop since 1929. The drop in level is affecting many key sectors of the regional economy. Among several remedial schemes is a plan for diverting the rivers of northern European Russia to the Caspian, and a project for a localized regulation of the level of the Caspian Sea.     

新史学和新汉学:中国现代史学的两种形态及其起伏

中国现代史学是同时循着两条几乎完全不同的路线一步步产生出来的.从乾嘉汉学逐步演化而来的化经为史的过程,是其中的路线之一;生发于"西洋史学"、对中国学术传统而言意味着炉灶重起的过程,则是其中的另一条路线.前者是所谓的"新汉学",后者是所谓的"新史学"."新史学"是指向历史本体的,"新汉学"则从一开始就是着眼于历史记录的.这两条路径起初各有轨辙,齐头并进,但由于"新汉学"凭借深厚,一段时间内压倒了"新史学";而"新史学"因为符合社会历史潮流、国际学术潮流,又后来居上,再立潮头."新史学"中经"唯物史观派史学",如今已经开花结果为"中国社会经济史研究";"新汉学"最富有象征性的学术遗产,事实上已经归并到当今的"古籍整理"和"史料学"学科中来了."新汉学"所主要致力的"文本考据"工作,已变为现代学术构成中的一个部分,治学过程中的一个初始环节;在"文本考据"之外和之后,实际上还存在一个更大的学问世界.     

星级酒店业景气波动的评价体系研究

行业景气指数是衡量行业经济发展繁荣程度的重要方法。根据经济景气的有关理论,运用计量经济学的方法,本文在深入分析星级酒店业景气波动影响因素的基础上,构建了星级酒店业景气波动的评价体系,并对上海星级酒店业近年的景气状况进行了实证研究。