THE CAUSES OF WATERLEVEL CHANGES OF THE ARAL SEA IN THE HOLOCENE

A specialist in loess geomorphology and arid-zone hydrology distinguishes three categories of factors accounting for waterlevel changes in the Aral Sea. She judges the most significant to be changes in inflow resulting from changes in the course of the Amudarya, the more important of the two tributary streams. The Amudarya at various times emptied into the Sarykamysh depression, southwest of the Aral Sea, giving rise to a flow of water through the now dry Uzboy channel to the Caspian Sea. Climatic change, involving alternations of wet and dry cycles, is said to have accounted for only minor water level fluctuations, of the order of 4 to 6 m, against the background of the major fluctuations produced by the Amudarya course migrations. Human activity, notably irrigation, is regarded as having become significant only in modern times as a result of an expansion of irrigation works. The present abrupt decline in the Aral waterlevel (6 m from 1960 to 1977, including 2 m in the last three years) is attributed to the combination of a dry climatic cycle and greatly increased use of water for irrigation.     

CONCEPT FOR PRESERVING AND RESTORING THE ARAL SEA AND NORMALIZING THE ECOLOGICAL,PUBLIC HEALTH,AND SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE ARAL REGION

The government committee charged by the former USSR Supreme Soviet with formulating measures for resolving the Aral Sea crisis presents a list of basic recommendations for ameliorating public health and economic problems in the Aral Region and reversing the decline of the sea. Considerable emphasis is placed on basic structural change in the regional economy and water budget. A staged procedure is outlined for the gradual transformation of the water balance and economic structure while maintaining the Aral Sea as a single (unified) water body.     

ON THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE ARAL SEA

Although both the Caspian and Aral Sea basins are affected by fluctuations in the general moisture conditions affecting the Northern Hemisphere, the two drainage basins react differently to identical moisture changes both over the long term and over the short term. Over the short term, a shift in wet periods has been observed between the European part of the USSR, which contains the Volga basin draining into the Caspian, and western Asia, which contains the Aral Sea drainage basin. Since there is a direct relationship between general moisture conditions and level changes, the short-term level fluctuations would be heterochronous (out of phase) in the two seas. Over the long term, the comparison is complicated by the fact that Caspian drainage derives mainly from snow meltwater in the Russian plain while Aral Sea drainage derives from a combination of snow and glacier meltwater. Glacier runoff tends to increase in dry, warm periods and to decrease in wet, cold periods of glacier growth, while snow is related directly to general moisture conditions.     

MANAGEMENT OF THE WATER BALANCE OF THE ARAL SEA

In view of the declining inflow into the Aral Sea, alternative proposals are advanced to save this inland sea by reducing its area as well as its salinity levels. The proposals involve the closing off of some portions of the sea, notably the Little Aral in the northeast and the Western Aral, from the large shallow eastern portion. Some portions of this fragmented sea would then be treated as active bodies of water with a throughflow regime, discharging surplus waters of high salinity into other portions, which would be allowed to become salt marshes. Various combinations of active water areas and residual water areas are examined, and possible trends in waterlevel and salinity are projected to the middle of the 21st century.     

Water in the Aral Sea Basin of Central Asia: Cause of Conflict or Cooperation?

An American specialist on the water resources of the republics of the former USSR, and especially those in Central Asia, reviews the current state of the Aral Sea Basin water resource with respect to supply, consumption, and the legal/institutional framework governing its use. More specifically, he examines water resources and management in the Aral Sea Basin for the purpose of assessing the potential for either interstate conflict or cooperation among the basin states (including Afghanistan and Iran). The author explores actions that could be taken to enhance water availability in the basin and the status of current structures for interstate management of key shared water resources. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: Q15, Q25, R14. 2 figures, 2 tables, 49 references.     

The Aral Sea Problem and its Solution

A hydrogeologist suggests that nine-tenths of the present stream flow into the Aral Sea can be diverted for other purposes without causing the sea to dry up. The diversion would cause the sea level to drop by 12 meters, where it would stabilize because of a greater intake of subsurface runoff resulting from an increased artesian pressure differential, and because the draining of flooded shore areas and the drying up of reed growths will make more water available through savings in evaporation and transpiration.     

CAUSES OF ARAL SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS IN THE PAST

The history of variations of the level of the Aral Sea from the most ancient times is reviewed and much useful information presented on natural regimes of the Aral's tributary rivers, the Amudar'ya and Syrdar'ya; the natural high- and low-water cycles of the Aral; and historical episodes where natural or human events diverted the Amudar'ya's flow westward into Lake Sarykamysh, which served as a kind of “alternative Aral” during these situations. Thus, the present decline of the Aral and growth of Sarykamysh can be viewed as just one cycle (albeit man-modified) of an Amudar'ya-Aral-Sarykamysh drainage system. Translated by Edward Torrey, Alexandria, VA 22308 from: Izvestiya Akademii Nauk SSSR, seriya geograficheskaya, 1990, No. 1, pp. 78-86.     

Water-Transport Problems of Central Asia in Connection with Water-Management Projects on the Amudarya and the Karakum Canal

The economics of Central Asian transportation are such that railroads are more economical than waterways if they run parallel, but water transport is considerably more economical than motor transport in the absence of railroads. This explains why shipping was never significant along the Syrdarya, one of the two major streams of Central Asia, which has been paralleled by a railroad (from Orenburg to Tashkent) since 1906. The situation was different in the case of the Amudarya, which was paralleled by a railroad in its lower reaches only since 1955. The significance of shipping on the Aral Sea is declining rapidly as more water is being withdrawn from its tributary streams for irrigation and the sea level is dropping. The author sees a future for water transportation on a southern east-west route made up by the upper reaches of the Amudarya and the Karakum Canal. However, such a route would require considerably additional capital investment on the canal to make it accessible to larger barges.     

CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EVAPORATION IN THE ARAL SEA BASIN

An analysis of evaporation changes in the Central Asian plain in connection with the drop of the Aral Sea level beginning in 1961 shows that there has been a reduction in evaporation from stream valleys and deltas and an increase in evaporation from irrigated land and newly formed evaporating surfaces. These new entities are primarily the Arnasay depression (west of the Golodnaya Steppe irrigation district) and the Sarykamysh depression (west of the lower reaches of the Amudarya), which have become filled with spent irrigation water draining from the irrigated land. Another new source of evaporation associated with human activity are the lakes and wetlands formed along the Kara Kum Canal as a result of the filtration of canal water. It turns out, furthermore, that irrigation on sloping piedomon plains, such as those watered by the Kara Kum Canal, requires more water than in old irrigated alluvial plains because of the additional water needed to flush salt out of the soil and to fill subsoil cavities and raise the watertable.     

THE PRESENT STAGE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SARYKAMYSH DEPRESSION

The Sarykamysh depression of Soviet Central Asia, southwest of the Aral Sea, has begun to fill with water since around 1960 after having lain dry for 350 years. As of 1976, the lake, fed mainly by irrigation drainage water from the nearby Khorezm (Khiva) oasis, had grown to 2,000 km², with a depth of at least 40 m. The depression was receiving 4 to 4.5 km³ of water a year and continued to fill. While the appearance of such a large body of water in the desert would appear in itself to be a positive development, the question is raised whether the water would not be put to better use by being directed toward the Aral Sea.     

The Geomorphology of the Turgay Trough in Connection with the Problem of Diverting the Water of West Siberian Rivers to Central Asia

A geomorphic field survey conducted in the late 1960's by the Institute of Geography (Moscow) suggests the existence of only one geomorphic level (Level III) that can be traced all the way through the Turgay trough from the Irtysh River drainage basin to the Aral Sea depression. However, contrary to general assumption, geomorphic analysis does not confirm the view that the Turgay trough served for a throughflow of water between the two drainage basins during the Pleistocene. An analysis of the geomorphic levels in the trough suggests that water in the northern segment of the trough drained toward the north and in the southern segment toward the south, with a middle segment occupied by a system of lakes, still evident to this day. However, the absence of a throughflow in the past does not rule out the use of the trough for the proposed southward diversion of Siberian water. It is suggested that the level of water on the Siberian slope be raised to the elevation of the divide (about 125 meters above sea level) so that the water could then follow the natural slope of the Level III surface toward the south.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].     

On the Question of Diverting part of the Unused Runoff of Northern and Siberian Rivers into Regions Suffering from a Shortage of Water Resources

An advocate of the diversion of Siberian water to Central Asia presents the latest thinking on such a project and recommends a combination of the diversion of water from the upper Ob' for irrigation of Northern Kazakhstan and the diversion of water from a small lower Ob' reservoir southward across the Turgay divide into the Aral Sea basin.     

The Aral Sea Basin Crisis: Transition and Environment in Former Soviet Central Asia

The haunting picture of a disappearing Aral Sea is just part of an overall environmental crisis in the Aral Sea Basin, where millions of people are dependent on agricultural production around the flows of two main rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Forced cotton cultivation in the former Soviet Union, in the context of inefficient agricultural organization and production, caused water mismanagement, salinization, water and soil contamination, erosion and the desiccation of the Aral Sea. In the post-Soviet era of ‘transition’, the governments of the Central Asian states and international donors have tried to mitigate the impact of the crisis and contain its scope. Resource-based tensions in the region reflect national (and sometimes ethnic) interests vested in the crucial agricultural sectors that provide foreign exchange and food. Although the Central Asian governments are gradually formulating regional water, land and salt management strategies, the room for manoeuvre that exists to implement policies which would immediately improve the environment, such as efficient water management and sustainable land use, is not being sufficiently utilized.     

The Aral Sea Crisis and Its Future: An Assessment in 2006

An American geographer and noted international authority on water management problems in Russia and Central Asia presents an account of an expedition, in late 2005 (under the sponsorship of the National Geographic Society) to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, focused on the Aral Sea. The steadily drying inland sea, with a surface area of 67,500 km² in 1960, had split into two parts and shrunk to 17,380 km2 in 2006. The paper provides an up-to-date overview of the crisis and presents an optimistic scenario of the sea's future, noting development of economic activities (particularly fisheries) in its surrounding settlements. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O13, Q15, Q25. 6 figures, 1 table, 55 references.     

THE DRYING OUT OF THE ARAL SEA AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

The author examines the problem of the present state of the environment in the desert irrigation districts of southern Kazakhstan and Central Asia. A drop of the level of the Aral Sea and the formation of new land on the exposed seabed, the desiccation and desertification of the Amudarya and Syrdarya deltas caused by an intensification of agriculture have been proceeding against the background of a series of dry years. Irreversible environmental changes are having a negative impact on the socioeconomic conditions of the Aral region. The author, basing himself on the results of scientific investigations related to the Aral Sea problem, proposes a number of measures designed to moderate this negative impact.     

ON THE PROBLEM OF REGULATING THE REGIME OF THE CASPIAN SEA

In an effort to stabilize the declining level of the Caspian Sea, it has been proposed that evaporation from the water surface be reduced by decreasing the size of the sea through construction of a dam in the northern portion. Data on the geology and hydrology of the Caspian Sea bed suggest that the construction of a dam might have undesirable consequences not only for the northern fisheries basin but for the sea as a whole. The findings are based on the presence of salt domes on the bottom of the northern Caspian Sea. An influx of highly mineralized subsurface waters along faults associated with the salt domes as well as leaching of salt from the structures themselves may threaten to raise the salinity of the northern fisheries basin to intolerable magnitudes. The presence of a man-made dam, in the author's view, would also interfere with the natural circulation of water, threatening contamination of deeper layers of the Caspian Sea with hydrogen sulfide, as has happened in the case of the Black Sea. [For a discussion of the Caspian Sea problem, see Soviet Geography, November 1972.]     

International and Regional Responses to the Aral Crisis: An Overview of Efforts and Accomplishments

An authoritative U.S. analyst of Central Asian water management problems, and former advisor to the Uzbek government on water management issues, surveys the nature and effectiveness of international and regional programs to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis. After first reviewing the history and magnitude of the crisis, the author assesses international and regional assistance programs during the late Soviet period and subsequent initial years of independence for the Central Asian republics within the Aral Basin. A concluding section includes policy recommendations based on the author's extensive experience in the field and familiarity with many of the principal organizations involved. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F35, Q15, Q25. 2 figures, 1 table, 32 references.     

CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING THEM

A second paper devoted to problems of predicting the future level of the Caspian Sea attempts, as did the first, to discount overly simplistic explanations for its nearly century-long decline and recent slight rise. Long-term climatic changes within the drainage basin of the Caspian and the resultant change in discharge of tributary rivers are proposed as the basic mechanism controlling sea level fluctuations and not, as argued in the popular press, tectonic movements, groundwater discharge variations, or the damming of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Various models for predicting future levels are compared, although no specific forecasts are made (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

MAN-INDUCED CHANGES IN OVERALL RUNOFF IN THE ARAL SEA BASIN

The article examines the prospects of using runoff characteristics and changes in runoff composition as a basis for predicting environmental modification. The technique is employed to assess changes in the circulation of matter that are taking place in the drainage basin of the Aral Sea as a result of the intensification of irrigation. Overall runoff, including its liquid, solid (suspended sediment) and chemical phases, is analyzed in connection with a shift in the deposition of material from the Aral Sea to the irrigated plains.