RECENT POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND GROWTH IN THE USSR

Data from the preliminary results of the 1989 census and Naseleniye SSSR 1987 permit analyses of age-sex structures of the Soviet population and distributions by civil divisions of natural growth rates, total population growth, urban growth, rural growth, percent urbanization, and growths of cities. The paper complements the treatment of census results by macroregions appearing in the November 1989 issue of Soviet Geography (Rowland, 1989) by summarizing trends emerging at a finer scale of analysis and providing recent background information on demographic components of population change.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

The Potential of Energy as a Geopolitical Binding Factor in Asia

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Ukraine's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet census (2001). Among the more salient developments examined in this second-largest post-Soviet republic are extremely high rates of natural population decrease among Ukrainians and Russians alike, a substantial exodus of ethnic Russians from Ukraine (and in some cases their ethnic re-identification as Ukrainians) with major implications for nationality distribution both at the national and regional levels, and interesting trends involving other minority nationalities such as (Crimean) Tatars, Armenians, and Jews. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 3 figures, 7 tables, 25 references.     

CHANGES IN THE METROPOLITAN AND LARGE CITY POPULATIONS OF THE USSR: 1979-85

This paper investigates the post-census growth of metropolitan areas and large cities in the USSR from 1979 to 1985. The Soviet population continues to be increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas and large cities, and although suburbanization occurs within metropolitan areas, a striking feature is that all central cities continue to grow and typically contain the vast majority of the metropolitan population. This reflects the fact that individual large cities continue to loom large, despite policies to limit their growth. Although the growth rates of large cities have slowed, so have those of smaller towns, and a merging of growth rates by size class is occurring.     

COMMUTER MOVEMENT IN BELORUSSIA

A Belorussian Gosplan study of Minsk shows 26,044 commuters (1970 data from the Soviet census), of which 92 percent came from rural areas. Statistics on location of commuter residence, mode of transportation and time consumed show the importance of rail, up to 90 percent from satellite cities, and travel mainly within 41–90 minute isochrones, but extending to more than 120 minutes. Data for cities of the Poles'ye region of Belorussia shows a higher level of commuting, 65–80 percent occurring by road, with rail fulfilling a limited function. Details of socio-economic and demographic characteristics of commuter from 11 Belorussian industrial plants outline the general pattern of young, unskilled or semi-skilled sections of the population forming the bulk of in-commuters. The conclusion is that rural-urban migration in Belorussia in the last 15 years has to a large extent replaced a more developed pattern of commuter movement.     

THE SOVIET METROPOLITAN HIERARCHY: REGIONALIZATION AND COMPARISON WITH THE UNITED STATES

The rapid growth of Soviet cities is converging toward a hierarchy similar to that of the United States. The numbers of aggregate populations of metropolitan centers by five size categories in the two countries are compared for growth and change from 1939 to 1976. Also, nine Soviet urban regions are identified, mapped, and correlated with comparable American groupings. Growth rates of Soviet metropolises are normalizing with less recent variation as compared to the 1939–59 period, a trend that parallels the one in the United States. Also, it appears that certain functions, such as administration and transportation, are stabilizing factors in urban growth. Governmental policies of investment in underdeveloped regions, balanced growth and diversification may be partially thwarted by five-year planning goals that have stimulated supragrowth in large cities of the South and East. However, it seems likely that increasing mobility, amenities and the expansion of consumer goods and services will produce a reversal of trends toward higher growth rates in the metropolitan centers of the West. Projections to the year 2000 suggest that Soviet metropolises will have a larger share of the national population and a more uniform growth pattern than those in the United States.     

THE SOVIET FAR EAST: A REPORT ON URBAN AND RURAL SETTLEMENT AND POPULATION CHANGE, 1966–1989

This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report (Pravda, April 29, 1989, p. 2). Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Kyrgyzstan, 1989-1999: Results from the Recent Census of Kyrgyzstan and 2001 Update

A specialist on population change and urbanization in the countries of the former USSR examines nationwide and regional total, urban, and rural population change in Kyrgyzstan for 1989—1999—the period between the last census of the former USSR and the first census of independent Kyrgyzstan—with selected updates to 2001. Of particular interest is the availability of oblast-level nationality data making possible the detailed investigation of changes in the regional and rural-urban populations of major nationality groups in Kyrgyzstan. A focus is on the decreasing sizes of Russian, Ukrainian, and German populations and population growth among ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O18, R12, R23. 4 figures, 17 tables, 41 references.     

Delayed Underurbanization and the Closed-City Effect: The Case of Ust'-Kamenogorsk

A field study conducted by the author based on a 2001 survey (N = 3,136) compares data on population change at the individual settlement level from the 1999 census of Kazakhstan with unpublished data from the 1989 census. The author documents the unique phenomenon of "delayed underurbanization" in the formerly closed East Kazakh city of Ust'- Kamenogorsk (ca. 300,000 inhabitants in 2002), arguing that the limited financial resources of rural migrants to that city (recently accessible to residents of its rural hinterland) have created spatial patterns of residence and commuting similar to those under the Soviet underurbanization model for open cities. The study, covering an area dominated by militaryindustrial and/or mining-metallurgical economies, is relevant to research focused on other formerly closed cities throughout the Soviet Union. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, O18. 5 figures, 25 references.     

Population Change and Regional Development in China: Insights Based on the 2000 Census

The People's Republic of China conducted its fifth population census in November 2000. This paper draws from that census and recent data to examine national and regional demographic changes in China over the past two decades. Nationally, the impact of fertility decline on rates of population growth, age composition, and household size is investigated. Regional population trends include the rising population share of the eastern region as a result of population growth due to migration and in response to the widening economic gap between coastal and interior China. Demographic differentials between the eastern region and the rest of China (i.e., in proportion of working-age population, household size, sex ratio, and levels of urbanization and educational attainment) suggest that migration is playing an increasingly important role in shaping regional population distribution and that the acceleration of uneven regional development poses a major challenge to policy makers. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, J61, O15. 4 figures, 5 tables, 52 references.     

Population Trends in the Russian Federation: Reflections on the Legacy of Soviet Censorship and Distortions of Demographic Statistics

A noted demographer assesses the reliability of data in the 1989 census of the Soviet Union for 14 regions of the Russian Federation affected by distortions designed by Soviet authorities to conceal the populations of "secret towns" of the military-industrial complex. More specifically, using declassified population data available but only selectively published following the disclosure of these hidden settlements (and their populations) in 1994, he re-estimates the urban populations of these regions in 1989, and compares differences in 1989-2002 population change indicated by use of the original and adjusted 1989 data sets. Distortions of up to 10 percent of the regional populations (and as high as 13 percent for their eponymous regional capitals) are examined in light of their implications for the calculation of a variety of demographic and population-based indicators in studies of Russia comparing the late Soviet and early post-Soviet periods. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 8 tables, 35 references.     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL NONFARM PLACES IN THE USSR

According to the 1970 census, the Soviet Union had 37,800 rural nonfarm places with a combined population of 6.1 million, or 5.8 percent of the rural population. The census data are believed to understate the number and population of nonfarm places because they assigned rural places to the nonfarm category purely on the basis of their generic designation. Many multifunctional nonfarm places and rural places that serve as administrative centers and have little relation to agriculture were not categorized as nonfarm in the census. Although many of the smaller nonfarm places are likely to be eliminated over time, others will continue to perform clearly defined functions in industry, construction, transportation, and services. The situation is illustrated with particular reference to Novosibirsk Oblast.     

A STRATEGY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SETTLEMENT BSf THE USSR; AIMS,PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

A General Program of Settlement in the USSR, worked out by the Central Urban Planning Institute, envisages a long-term evolution of settlement that would help ameliorate the quality of life, insure industrial development of small and middle-size towns and help protect the environment. Two alternative strategies are envisaged: (1) an extrapolative strategy that projects long-term trends on the basis of past experiences and would enhance agglomerative processes in Soviet settlement; (2) a normative, goal-directed strategy that would seek to foster the evolution of planned and regulated systems of interconnected urban and rural places, and would gradually transform the present agglomerations along the lines of such normative systems. The prospective distribution of settlement under both strategies is mapped. Under the extrapolative strategy, the urban population share in areas with agglomerated forms of settlement would reach nearly 70 percent over the forecast period compared with 44 percent in 1970. The normative, goal-directed strategy would yield 60 large interconnected urban-rural systems, centered on the country's largest cities and accounting for 53 percent of the total population; 170 middle-size systems, centered on moderately large cities and including 26 percent of the population; and 325 small systems, centered on small and middle-size towns and including 14 percent of the population. About 7 percent of the population would remain outside the systemic structure.     

Social-Demographic Aspects of Urbanization in the USSR

A certain measure of agreement is found between rates of urbanization and industrialization, with the agreement far greater with total growth of urban population than with the concentration of urban population in big cities. This finding is thought to be significant support for those who contend that limitations on big-city growth are desirable and will not have an adverse effect on industrial development. Migration from the countryside continues to be the main source of urbanization, although its significance has greatly declined as natural increase of the urban population has risen. Migration in general is thought to be desirable because it helps redistribute the able-bodied population between the agricultural and industrial sectors of the economy and provides a channel for social mobility of rural youth. However, the magnitude and composition of rural-urban migration in some regions is having an adverse effect on the economy and requires more effective regulation.     

Declining Towns in Russia, 1989-1993

An article based on data for the last census of the former USSR and population estimates for 1993 for urban places of over 15,000 population in the Russian Federation surveys the regional distribution, economic functions, and size characteristics of urban settlements in Russia with declining population over the period 1989-93. Interesting comparisons are drawn with patterns prevailing during previous periods, revealing recent increases in the number of such towns in major manufacturing regions and the North and an increase in the number of large cities. Towns experiencing the very greatest percentage declines (-10.0 percent or more) also are investigated. 2 tables, 2 figures, 18 references.     

National and Regional Population Trends in Azerbaijan

An American specialist on urbanization and population dynamics in the countries of the former Soviet Union examines changes in Azerbaijan's population revealed by analysis of that country's first post-Soviet (1999) census and official 2002 population estimates. Particular attention is devoted to the ongoing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, in terms of its effects on total population size (mortality and refugee flows into and out of the country) and the internal distribution of population within the country (involuntary migration of internally displaced persons). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J11, O18, R23. 2 figures, 4 tables, 44 references.     

Quantitative Regularities in the Urbanization of the USSR

Simple arithmetical formulas are proposed for the study and analysis of urbanization processes. The formulas establish functional relationships between the urbanization level at the beginning of a particular study period, the changes in urban and rural population during the period, and the urbanization level at the end of the period. The relative share of administrative centers and of other urban places in a particular major civil division in total urban population is also considered. Different types of urbanization processes are discussed and plotted on a graphic-analytical model (nomogram). Contrary to general assumption, it is found that in the USSR it is not the very large cities (500,000 and over) that are increasingly concentrating urban population, but the next lowest size class (100,000–500,000). Further research into urbanization processes in particular spatial settlement systems is urged.