气候变迁和中国历史

本文联系东亚、欧州和北美气候变迁及其影响 ,论述中国各历史时期气候变迁和历史的关系。指出以农为本的中国 ,尤其是北方 ,在气候变化面前显得格外脆弱。气候变化影响农业 ,从而影响社会各方面。从新石器时代至清朝 ,中国气候温暖期与寒冷期周期性变化的过程 ,是游牧文明与农耕文明两种生态环境较量与整合的过程。在温暖期 ,中国经济繁荣 ,民族统一 ,国家昌盛 ;寒冷期 ,气候剧变引起经济衰退 ,游牧民族南侵 ,农民起义 ,国家分裂 ,经济文化中心南移等。最后 ,作者指出 ,在历史时期 ,气候是中国北方政治命运的决定性因素之一 ,并强调将世界气候作为一个整体研究历史事件的重要性     

Time Averages,Climatic Change,and Predictability

Traditional averaging procedures (e.g., annual average, climatic normals) are shown to have both theoretical and practical failings when used for prediction or for detection of small climatic changes. Transformation of a multivariate autoregressive process (predictable components analysis) provides a useful way to construct empirical functions capturing the dynamic behavior of climatic variables.     

Global Climatic Change: the Difficulties of Assessing Impacts

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, initiated in 1988, is complete, was debated at the Second World Climate Conference in November, 1990 and was subsequentty submitted to the United Nations General Assembly. IPCC: (i) asserted the reality of humanity's disturbance of the natural climate system; (ii) demanded studies to improve our knowledge of processes vulnerable to climatic changes: and (iii) called for policy responses to mitigate and adapt to these changes. Two fundamental issues are: how will global climatic change affect natural resources and human population and how will the impetus towards policy responses, particularly greenhouse gas emission reduction treaties, affect industry, the economy and trade? A necessary first step in the highly desirable and geographical aspiration of striving to link numerical climate modelling to the predictions of socioeconomic systems is increased awareness and improved understanding of current physical and social models. In this paper I review the status of numerical climatic modelling especially as it pertains to scenarios of the effects of human-enhanced greenhouse warming. These projections are of futures which are themselves the result of socio-economic predictions. Development of appropriate adaptive strategies depends crucially upon improved simulation of the continental near-surface climate and on improved spatial resolution of climate models by at least two orders of magnitude. Such increased resolution is likely to demand a thousandfold increase in computing power. The physical results of global climatic change are likely to be less significant than the social and economic effects resulting from international agreements on emission reduction Recent shifts in international research and policy responses place today's studies of global climatic change firmly at the focus of human-environment interactions and hence at the core of modern geography.     

基于黄土高原南部地区历史文献记录的唐代气候冷暖波动特征研究

本文基于黄土高原南部地区历史文献记录 ,对唐代气候冷暖波动特征进行初步研究。研究表明 ,799AD前后存在一次百年尺度的气候转寒 ,在 84 5 AD、880 AD附近还存在两次数十年尺度的气候波动。在数十年时间尺度上 ,气候寒冷与较高的气候变率相伴出现。唐代相应地区旱涝资料中没有发现冷暖变化与干湿变化在十年尺度上有显著的线性相关性。最后我们就气候波动与社会发展之间某些耦合现象作一初步的讨论。     

Climatic influences in some ancient Mediterranean religions

L'Indo‐Chine française : Étude politique, économique et administrative sur la Cochinchine, le Cambodge, l'Annam et le Tonkin. Par J.‐L. de Lanessak, etc. Avec 5 cartes. Paris : Félix Alcan, 1889. Pp. 760.

The Civilisation of Sweden in Heathen Times. By Oscar Montelius, Ph.D., Professor at the National Historical Museum, Stockholm. Translated from the second Swedish edition, revised and enlarged by the Author, by Eev. F. H. Woods, B.D., Vicar of Chalfont St. Peter. With Maps and 205 Illustrations. London: Macmillan and Co., 1888. Pp. xvi. and 214. Price 14s.

Transactions of the Gaelic Society of Inverness. Vol. xiii., 1886–87. Inverness : Northern Chronicle Office, 1888. Pp. xiv. + 372.

The Tour of Dr. Richard Pococke, Lord Bishop of Ossory, through Sutherland and Caithness in 1760, with Introduction and Notes by Daniel William Kemp. Printed at the Darien Press. Published by The Sutherland Association. Edinburgh, 1888.

Sketches from a Tour through Holland and Germany. By J. P. Mahaffy and J. E. Rogers. London : Macmillan and Co., 1889. Pp. xv. and 271. Price 10s. 6d.

The Land of Rubens: A Companion for Visitors to Belgium. By Conrad Burken Huet. Translated from the Dutch, and edited by Albert D. Vandam. London : Sampson Low and Co., 1888. Pp. 232. Price 3s. 6d.

Switzerland: its Mountains, Valleys, Lakes, and Rivers. With 250 Illustrations. New and revised edition. London : J. S. Virtue and Co., 1889. Pp. 388. Price 15s.

A Winter in Albania. By H. A. Brown ; Illustrations by 0. H. Brown. Pp. viii. and 395. London: Griffith, Farran, Okeden, and Welsh. 1888. Price 10s. 6d.

Naples in 1888. By E. N. Rolfe and H. Ingleby. London : Trübner and Co. Price 7s. 6d, Pp. 262.

The First Ascent of the Kasaï, being some Records of Service under the Lone Star, By Chaeles Someeville Lateobe Bateman, sometime Captain and Adjutant of Gendarmerie in the Congo Free State. With 57 Illustrations and 2 Maps. London: George Philip and Son, 1889. Pp. 185. Price 21s.

The Least of all Lands : Seven Chapters on the Topography of Palestine. By William Miller, C.I.E., LL.D., Principal of the Madras Christian College, and Fellow of the University of Madras. London : Blackie and Son, 1888. Pp. 247.

The Statesman's Year‐Booh for 1889. Edited by J. Scott Keltie, Librarian to the Royal Geographical Society. Twenty‐sixth Annual Publication. London : Macmillan and Co., 1889. Price 10s. 6d.

Commercial Geography: based on the latest Researches and Statistical Returns. A complete Manual of the Countries of the World, their chief Centres of Trade and Means of Communication, their Natural Productions, Mineral Resources, Exports, Manufactures, etc. By Dr. Cael Zehden, Professor in the Handels‐Akademie of Vienna. Translated by Findlay Muiehead, M.A. London : Blackie and Son, 1889. Pp. 592.

The Colony of New Zealand: Its History, Vicissitudes, and Progress. By William Gisboene. London : E. A. Petherick and Co., 1888. Pp. 360. Price 7s. 6d.

The Northern Counties Red Book : Inverness, Northern Chronicle Office.

Durch Bosnien. Von Svetozak Boeoevio’. Wien: Buch und Kunstdruckerei “ Stegermiihl.”

The Florida of To‐day : A Guide for Tourists and Settlers. By James Wood Davidson, A.M. Pp. 254 ; with Maps and Illustrations. New York and London : D. Appleton and Co., 1889. Price 5s.

A Guide to Trinidad: A Hand‐booh for the use of Tourists and Visitors. By J. H. Collens, Port of Spain. Second edition. London: Elliot Stock, 1888. Pp. 287. Price 6s.

Making a Start in Canada : Letters from Two Young Emigrants. With an Introduction by Professor Alfred J. Church, M.A. Pp. xx. and 224. London : Seeley and Co., 1889. Price 2s. 6d.     

A Climatic Model of Urban Energy Budgets

A deductive model of the energy budgets of urban landscapes, based on the exchanges of energy, mass, and momentum, is introduced. The absorption of shortwave and longwave radiation and their dissipation via the channels of reradiation, convection, conduction, and evaporation are generated by the model in order to simulate the interplay of the many energy cascades among the myriad of city surfaces. A city can be geographically analyzed by determining its energy budget and resultant surface temperatures on a block-by-block basis. In spite of some simplifying assumptions, the predictions of surface temperatures of this initial model compare favorably with observations.     

COPLOT Display Technique as an Aid to Climatic Classification

COPLOT, a new graphic display method for multivariate data analysis, is introduced and used to divide a geographical region into climatic subregions. This method, a variant of the BIPLOT technique, is applied here to study similarity among climatic stations, the correlation structure among climatic variables, and the mutual relationships between station observations and climatic variables. At this stage, this technique is used as a supplement to cluster analysis in the attempt to understand the covariance structure of the climatic data set. However, in the future, the final decision on area grouping will be based exclusively on visual inspection of the COPLOT output display.     

Holocene Climatic Changes and Cultural Dynamics in the Libyan Sahara

Systematic surveys and excavations were carried out during the 1990–1996 field seasons in the Tadrart Acacus and surrounding areas, shedding new light on the climatic changes and cultural dynamics which occurred during the Holocene. In this paper, the geological, geomorphological, and archaeological evidence is assembled in order to provide a preliminary synthesis on the prehistory of the area. Pendant les saisons de terrain du 1990 au 1996, des récognitions et fouilles systématiques ont été conduites dans le Tadrart Acacus et dans les zones circonvoisines; ces études ont donne des nouvelles information en ce qui concerne les changements climatiques et les dynamiques culturelles de cette région pendant l'Holocène. Dans ce papier, les évidences géologiques, géomorphologiques, et archéologiques ont été intégrées afin d'obtenir une synthèse préliminaire sur la préhistoire de la région.     

唐代气候变化与唐代历史兴衰

本文支持唐代是一个温暖湿润的时期。温暖湿润的气候使唐代农牧业界线北移,农耕区扩大;农业经济作物种植北线北移,复种指数提高,产出的多样性更明显;农作物单产量提高,粮食总产量也提高;水利建设成效显著。由于国力强盛,使南方地区的开发有了保证。气候的温暖湿润为唐代农业经济的发展创造了条件,农业经济的发展为社会经济的整体发展和繁荣奠定了基础。本文赞同８世纪中叶气候有一个由暖转冷过程的观点,认为８世纪中叶的气候转寒造成了中国北方游牧民族南下压力增大,北方游牧民族纷纷入主中国北方建立区域性王朝,安史之乱是这个南下进程开始的标志性事件。经过南宋１２世纪的再一次寒冷突变后,北方游牧民族则开始了入主中原建立大一统王朝的历史。     

Paper 2: Climatic Study of the Underground Archaeological Site Coudenberg

Abstract

The excavation and valorization of subterranean archaeological remains, and eventually opening a site to the public, required a proper management and conservation strategy. This strategy was based on the evaluation of the delicate balance between the requirements for public health and safety, and the protection of the archaeological remains from future degradation. Controlling the climate can be essential for a preventive conservation strategy, which can be defined as an indirect action to increase the life expectancy of the archaeological remains, and by doing so keeping them in a preferred state of conservation to mitigate damage and/or deterioration.

Potential risks and possible interventions are outlined to avoid climatic conditions which are in conflict with the requirements for the visitors’ comfort while preventing damage phenomena to the materials.     

Litigating Agency Change

A study of Forest Service-related litigation and administrative appeals was undertaken to examine their potential roles in effecting change within the Forest Service. The frequency of federal lawsuit decisions involving the Forest Service increased markedly between 1971 and 1993, indicating a dramatic increase in the use of litigation as a tool to force change within the agency, particularly in the Ninth Circuit. Administrative appeals followed a similar increasing trend. An examination of the instigators and purposes of lawsuits found that litigation is used most frequently by environmentalists and most often to block commodity production activities by the agency. Although the agency wins the majority of suits in which it is involved, litigants who initiated lawsuits to stop commodity production activities had higher success rates than litigants seeking to challenge additional environmental measures or to promote commodity production by the agency. A qualitative examination of five National Forest Management Act lawsuit case studies concluded that when litigants are successful in legal challenges against the agency, the court decision often results in substantive on-the-ground changes in management, thereby providing an incentive for additional use of litigation as a means to alter agency actions. These results indicate that the courts and administrative appeals process likely have been significant factors in catalyzing change within the Forest Service.     

Study of the Climatic Resources of the USSR and their Economic Utilization

A combination of cheap natural gas and hydroelectric power resources makes Central Asia a promising site for the development of energy- oriented industries such as chemicals and light metals. The author shows that it is more economical to produce power-consuming products in Central Asia than to transmit cheap gas and electricity to other parts of the USSR.