SUBSTITUTION OF NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS FOR PETROLEUM IN THE SOVIET PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

This paper examines the prospects for switching the Soviet petrochemical industry from an oil to a gas base, by substituting more natural gas liquids (NGL) for the light petroleum fractions currently used. In other countries with a large domestic gas industry, such as the United States, the petrochemical industry is based largely on natural gas liquids (NGL). Thus, with the accelerating development of its own gas industry (now the largest in the world), the USSR has the potential to change its feedstock mix to take advantage of increased NGL supplies, freeing more of the light petroleum fractions for other uses, such as transportation. However, changes in feedstock usage have been in the opposite direction, with increasing reliance on refined petroleum liquids, with little of the available NGL being used for petrochemicals. This is partly because of differences in regional availability of NGL: most of the Soviet petrochemical industry is concentrated in the Volga-Urals region, while most of Soviet hydrocarbons now are produced in West Siberia. Another factor is the small size and limited capabilities of the Soviet gas processing industry.     

REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE USSR

The theory and practice of drawing up and implementing regional plans, or “territorial plans,” as they are known in the Soviet Union, has been a matter of considerable debate in the Soviet literature, a debate that has been complicated by differences in terminology. The author discusses various Soviet definitions of “territorial planning” and points out disagreement concerning its nature and scope. The major forms of territorial planning as now practiced in the USSR are reviewed, and two forms in particular—regional economic planning and regional physical planning—are distinguished. It is concluded that territorial planning continues to have a somewhat uncertain status in the USSR, with inadequate official support, although the issue remains a matter of considerable interest to the leadership under the Gorbachev administration.     

THE FORMATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY

The industrial complex in the area of the vast iron-ore bearing province known as the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (Central Russia) has been shaped in the past by an advantageous economic-geographic situation in the heart of the European USSR, by the availability of labor resources and by the presence of a wide range of agricultural raw materials for industry (sugar beets, sunflower, hemp). Further development will hinge on the massive use of mineral resources, both iron ore for the iron and steel industry, and cement materials in the overburden of open-pit iron mines. In 1975 the KMA will supply one-sixth of all the iron ore mined in the Soviet Union. About 60 percent of the ore (direct-shipping ore and concentrates derived from low grade-quartzites) moves to nearby plants at Lipetsk and Tula, and 25 percent moves to the Urals. If plans for a 12-million-ton integrated iron and steel plant for the Comecon countries materialize, 40 percent of the ore will be consumed locally, still leaving 60 percent for shipment to other steel plants. See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 593–94.     

PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.     

SOVIET REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND THE 10th FIVE-YEAR PLAN

The Guidelines for the 10th Five-Year Plan (1976–80) are assessed in terms of their suggestions and probable implications for Soviet regional development policy. The new plan is examined both for evidence of regional concerns in specific economic and social programs as well as for more general indications of regional development philosophy and strategy. The current plan is then compared with previous plans for evidence of shifts in regional development policy. Finally the regional dimensions of Soviet development are considered in light of more general ideas of regional development and modernization.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE A MAJOR NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

A Soviet planning official discusses planning for the BAM project, a major new railroad to be completed by 1982 in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. The construction of a well equipped rail line, supplied with specially designed tank-cars unit trains, was found to be more economical than the construction of an ordinary railroad, needed for resource development north of the present Trans-Siberian, and of a separate oil pipeline from West Siberia's oil fields across Siberia to Far Eastern refineries and tanker export terminals. Under the decision taken by the Soviet planning authorities, crude oil will move by pipeline from the West Siberian fields to Tayshet, where it will be trans-shipped to tank-car trains taking the oil to Urgal. There it will be transferred again to pipelines for transmission to refineries and port terminals. [See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 587–590; map, p. 588.]     

Strategic R&D as an answer to the oil crisis. West and east German investment in coal refinement and the chemical industries, 1970–1990

Abstract

In reaction to the oil‐price shocks of 1973/4 and 1978/9 both of the German states reconsidered coal refinement as a technological answer to economic and political constraints. In the GDR the chemical industry in particular could not do without this technology, but the state did not undertake a major R&D programme, preferring rather to continue with existing plants and processes. The disastrous consequences of this policy were felt when the Soviet Union cut off oil supplies to the GDR in the early 1980s, so damaging irreversibly not only the chemical industry, but the entire East Germany economy too. In the FRG the chemical industry was an active interlocuter with the federal government but notwithstanding the offer of generous subsidies was always prudent about the need for a switch back to coal from oil, and believed that new R&D programmes in the coal refining area were not imperative given Western German leadership in the field. In the event it was sectors of the economy other than the chemical industry which benefitted from the federal government's concerns about the oil price rises in the 1970s.     

The Regional Dimension of Russian Oil Production: Is a Sustained Recovery in Prospect?

An American geographer and prominent authority on oil and natural gas industries and resources of Russia and other former republics of the Soviet Union presents a region-byregion account of Russia's oil production, tracing in considerable detail developments up to September 2006. The account, based on systematic and frequent field investigations since the early 1990s as well as interviews with key industry executives, covers reserves, output trends, ownership, investments, pipelines, and a variety of economic factors including exports to China. Addressing the question of whether sustained production recovery is possible, the author presents American and Russian scenarios projecting oil output through the year 2020. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: L71, O13, Q40, Q48. 8 figures, 7 tables, 64 references.     

NEGATIVE FACTORS IN THE USE OF THE BIOCLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE APSHERON PENINSULA

The author raise several significant problems involved in plans to establish resort functions on the Apsheron Peninsula, which together with its major metropolitan areas (Baku and Sumgait), serves as a center for oil refining and petrochemical production based on significant offshore oil drilling in the Caspian Sea. Among these problems are the fact that part of the area of greatest resort/recreational potential (northern coast) is also the area of highest SC₂ concentrations (reflecting chemical production in Sumgait), and that another promising location (southern coast) exhibits high levels of NO₂ (largely attributed to automobile traffic and power generation in Baku) (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS IN THE GEOGRAPHY OF LABOR RESOURCES

Soviet population geographers have tended to study labor-resource problems at the level of major civil divisions, such as republics, krays and oblasts. There is a real need for investigating such problems at a more detailed regional level, down to particular rayons and urban places in which people live and are employed. Various types of economic-geographic investigations of labor-resource problems are suggested and a research strategy is proposed. The author notes that if population cannot be redistributed regionally in keeping with a given economic objective, economic plans may have to be revised on the basis of the actual labor resource situation.     

MODERNIZATION OF SOVIET AGRICULTURAL MACHINE BUILDING: THE EXAMPLE OF TRACTOR PRODUCTION

The Soviet agricultural equipment industry produces over 40 percent of the world's tractors. It also is a major world producer of combines and other agricultural equipment. Nevertheless, almost three-fourths of the 33 million Soviet agricultural workers are classified as manual laborers. This paper focuses on how the industry is being modernized to address this problem, and how this effort fits into the overall program of economic restructuring. It also briefly examines some of the spatial dimensions of agricultural machinery production, including the distribution of tractor assembly plants within the country and some of their locational factors.     

Medical-Geographic Study of the Formation of Population of the Ob' River Region

A joint study by population geographers and medical geographers of the expanding oil industry of the Middle Ob' valley in Western Siberia seeks to establish a set of recommendations for regulating the influx of population from various parts of the Soviet Union. The recommendations, based on an evaluation of medical-geographic contrasts between places of origin and places of settlement, are intended to minimize the adaptation problems resulting from great regional contrasts.     

SOVIET ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY: SIX DECADES OF DEVELOPMENT AND CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS

A senior Russian economic geographer reviews the peripatetic evolution of the discipline during the Soviet period. After an early phase in the 1920s and 1930s, when it made some practical contributions to economic planning, particularly in regionalization, economic geography was long relegated to the status of a teaching discipline separating it from the more goal-oriented economic sciences. In recent years, economic geography has again acquired greater practical relevance, largely because of the development, and official endorsement, of the theory and application of territorial-production complex theory as an approach to spatial organization of the Soviet economy. Its thematic content has been broadened by the inclusion of the increasingly active field of population geography and urban geography. The growing “social” content of the discipline has given rise to suggestions that it be renamed “social geography,” or at least “social-economic geography,” reflecting a similar change of designations of the Soviet economic plans to social-economic plans.     

THE LOCATION OF METAL-INTENSIVE AND LABOR-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIES IN THE EASTERN REGIONS

The author argues against the widespread view (stated in several articles in Soviet Geography) that labor-intensive industries should be kept out of Siberia because of the shortage of labor resources in that region. Taking the specific example of labor-intensive machinery industry such as instrument-making, as opposed to steel-intensive industry, he points out that labor-intensive plants, by virtue of their smaller size, usually have smaller labor requirements than large heavy-machinery manufacturing plants. Moreover, he argues, location must not be based on total population or total labor resources of a region, but on the availability of so-called free (nonemployed) labor resources, which consist largely of women and of young people just entering upon a career. This category of labor resources happens to be greater in the eastern regions than in the western regions of the Soviet Union. In fact, one reason for the net out-migration from Siberia, according to the author, is that second and third members of households find it difficult to obtain jobs in a regional economy that is largely oriented toward male employment (in extractive industry, timber felling, etc.). The introduction of labor-intensive industries into existing Siberian industrial complexes would thus help provide employment to other household members and eliminate one reason for out-migration.     

MILK PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION IN THE SOVIET UNION

The magnitude of regional milk production and consumption imbalances is calculated using the most recent (1970) comprehensive set of data on Soviet milk production and consumption. The type and amount of inter-regional exchange this imbalance generates is then estimated, and the implications of the product's perishability on the need for differentiated regional development of the dairy industry are assessed.     

THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

AN APPRAISAL OF THE SOVIET CONCEPT OF THE TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEX

The paper, contributing to one of the research goals of the Commission on Industrial Systems, International Geographical Union, provides an appraisal of the Soviet approach to spatial organization of the economy known as the territorial production complex. The authors review the genesis of the concept, definitional criteria, and its practical formation and operation, making occasional comparison with Western approaches to spatial economic organization. An unresolved problem for Soviet planners is the provision of a coordinating administrative authority for each territorial complex that would integrate the activities of individual industrial ministries involved in the creation of the complex; the current thinking of Soviet planners is illuminated by a recent statement appended to the paper. (For a previous Western view of Soviet regional development models, see G. A. Huzinec in Soviet Geography, October 1976.)     

Soviet–Japanese relations and the strategic interests of the Guomindang and the CCP – Chiang Kai‐shek's planning of sanctions against the CCP in 1943

When in 1943 the Guomindang launched its third wave of anti‐communist campaigns, Mao Zedong considered that Chiang Kai‐shek had acted in the belief that Japan would soon invade the Soviet Union. Hitherto, Chinese historians have either ignored Mao's judgment or failed to provide convincing explanations for it. There are two reasons for this attitude: first, historians have failed to appreciate the strategic implications of the relationship between the Soviet Union and Japan for relations between the Guomindang and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP); and second, relevant evidence regarding the events has not been available in document on Chiang. This essay answers questions raised by both points. Most commentators have claimed that this third anti‐Communist push ended by the middle or late July of 1943. However, Chiang in fact continued to make plans to mop up Shaanbei (the Communist‐controlled northern Shaanxi area) and impose sanctions on the Communists. The formulation, revision and eventual abandonment of Chiang's plans are also addressed in this essay.