THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

Problems of Providing Siberia with Manpower

Continuing net out-migration from Siberia produces a manpower supply problem that must be resolved if the regions's economic development is to be pursued. A high rate of labor turnover tends to raise the costs of industrial development and to lower the skill levels of workers as skilled labor leaving Siberian cities for other parts of the USSR is replaced by untrained manpower from the Siberian countryside. Wage differentials in effect in Siberia have been effective in attracting manpower from the Western regions for short periods of time, but have not stimulated permanent settlement. In the view of the authors, new arrivals can be induced to settle down in Siberia only if the adverse impact of the Siberian environment can be compensated by a level of housing and services that is superior to those available elsewhere in the Soviet Union. The significant element is housing, which should receive particular attention in future investment programs. Northern development within Siberia poses the additional problem of physical acclimatization.     

POTENTIALS FOR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY AMONG OIL WORKERS IN THE RUSSIAN NORTH

High population mobility, mainly in the form of out-migration, is a characteristic feature of the post-Soviet Russian North. As subsidies from the centre were significantly cut, living standards and the number of inhabitants in many Russian peripheries declined considerably. Nevertheless, there are also prospering regions and industry sectors in these parts of Russia, which are often related to and dependent on the exploitation of natural resources. After introducing general Soviet and post-Soviet mobility and migration patterns in the north of Russia, this article examines the mobility behaviour of oil workers. The analyses are based on a case study of an oil company (SeverTEK) from the Komi Republic and incorporate different statistical approaches. The purpose of the study is to assess past, present and future mobility behaviour of those in northern regions who are benefitting from post-Soviet transition and will most likely contribute most to a positive development of the Russian North. The results show that the surveyed employees of SeverTEK have migrated in the past mainly from Siberia, the Far East, and the now independent countries of the former Soviet Union to northern and central parts of European Russia. The present mobility behaviour is strongly characteristic of shift work employment with long-distance commuting. An analysis of intended migration indentifies strong potentials for future migrations among the oil workers of the case study. It appears that many employees are ready to leave northern regions as soon as their job situation allows it. Therefore, unlike in other resource peripheries such as Western Australia, long-distance commuting is in Russia not used as a decentralization measure; instead it offers opportunities for reducing the problematically high population density of the post-Soviet North.     

REGIONAL POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN THE USSR: 1979-84

This paper examines regional redistribution and population growth rate trends in the USSR from 1979 to 1984, and compares them to preceding intercensal trends for 1959-70 and 1970-79. Total and regional rates of population change for 1979-84 were generally lower than in preceding periods. The most pronounced regional shift continues to be toward rapidly growing Central Asia, which has surpassed the Center as the most populous Soviet region. However, Central Asia now has net out-migration, and the degree of shift to Central Asia was less than during 1970-79. Between 1979 and 1984 a noticeable northward and eastward shift occurred. In particular, there appeared to be a resurgence of Siberia. After two decades of decline, the share of the Soviet population residing in Siberia increased between 1979 and 1984. Another notable development was the slowing of the rate of rural population decline, especially in the Non-Chernozem Zone of European USSR and in Siberia. It is possible that policies to promote migration to Siberia and to stem rural depopulation may be having some effect. The shift to cities in general and large cities in particular, however, continues. (The author would like to thank Robert Lewis for his useful comments and Jane Rowland for her excellent typing).     

ECONOMIC-GEOGRAPHIC PECULIARITIES OF FORMATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL-TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES OF UNION REPUBLICS

Differences in industrial development of the Soviet union republics are found to persist, and the basic factors are analyzed. The presence of a skilled labor force is an important factor in insuring a high level of industrial output per capita and a high rate of return on capital. However, the distribution of labor-intensive industries does not always conform to the availability of labor resources. Such industries have reached a high level in the Baltic republics, where the reproduction rate is low and additional labor must be brought in from the outside, and they have not been fostered in Central Asia, where the rate of natural increase is high. The emphasis on resource-based industries that is characteristic of some republics (oil and gas in Azerbaydzhan and Turkmenia, nonferrous metals in Kazakhstan, etc.) is usually associated with a high level of fixed assets (capital intensity) and a low rate of return as well as low levels of industrial output per capita.     

ON THE QUESTION OF THE COMPOSITION OF ECONOMIC TERRITORIAL COMPLEXES

A variety of definitions of “territorial production complex” is analyzed in terms of the factors that enter into this concept of an integrated areal production unit of the Soviet economy. The author favors a definition that would encompass the interplay of all human activities within a given territory, from a major economic region to an individual place. The theory of cycles, developed by N. N. Kolosovskiy as an analytical tool for the study of regional economies, is criticized on the ground that it considers only the technological feasibility of combining a set of related industries into a so-called cycle, but ignores the issue of economic efficiency. The proposition is illustrated by comparing the location of a water-intensive and fuel-intensive chemical complex in Belorussia and Eastern Siberia. The technological basis for such a complex is present in both regions, but the economics favors an East Siberian location.     

THE BAM: LABOR,MIGRATION AND PROSPECTS FOR SETTLEMENT

The construction of the showcase Baikal-Amur Mainline (the BAM), which spans over 2,000 miles of unsettled, desolate territory, provides an excellent opportunity to study labor management and organization in a centrally planned economy, and illustrates the interplay of central planning with the relatively unhindered migration of workers. Significantly, in the face of a shrinking labor force, the USSR attracted thousands of young people to Siberia to work on the BAM. Now that the rail line is in place, the more difficult task will be to entice workers to settle in the BAM zone. Until the Soviet Government makes a firm commitment to improving the quality of life in Siberia, prospects for settling the BAM region remain uncertain. (The author wishes to thank Holland Hunter, Gilbert Rozman and Theodore Shabad for their generous help and encouragement.)     

SUBSTITUTION OF NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS FOR PETROLEUM IN THE SOVIET PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

This paper examines the prospects for switching the Soviet petrochemical industry from an oil to a gas base, by substituting more natural gas liquids (NGL) for the light petroleum fractions currently used. In other countries with a large domestic gas industry, such as the United States, the petrochemical industry is based largely on natural gas liquids (NGL). Thus, with the accelerating development of its own gas industry (now the largest in the world), the USSR has the potential to change its feedstock mix to take advantage of increased NGL supplies, freeing more of the light petroleum fractions for other uses, such as transportation. However, changes in feedstock usage have been in the opposite direction, with increasing reliance on refined petroleum liquids, with little of the available NGL being used for petrochemicals. This is partly because of differences in regional availability of NGL: most of the Soviet petrochemical industry is concentrated in the Volga-Urals region, while most of Soviet hydrocarbons now are produced in West Siberia. Another factor is the small size and limited capabilities of the Soviet gas processing industry.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF STATE MANUFACTURING GROWTH RATES: A TWO-DIGIT-LEVEL ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. This paper analyzes 1954–1987 state manufacturing employment growth in 19 two-digit industries. Markets were found to be the strongest influence in 18 industries. Labor was the second strongest, followed by a threshold variable. Weaker influences were resources, taxes, and amenities. Regional values for the market, labor, and threshold variables corresponded well with regional employment change in the Manufacturing Belt and all other regions of the U.S.     

THE FORMATION OF THE INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF THE KURSK MAGNETIC ANOMALY

The industrial complex in the area of the vast iron-ore bearing province known as the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly (Central Russia) has been shaped in the past by an advantageous economic-geographic situation in the heart of the European USSR, by the availability of labor resources and by the presence of a wide range of agricultural raw materials for industry (sugar beets, sunflower, hemp). Further development will hinge on the massive use of mineral resources, both iron ore for the iron and steel industry, and cement materials in the overburden of open-pit iron mines. In 1975 the KMA will supply one-sixth of all the iron ore mined in the Soviet Union. About 60 percent of the ore (direct-shipping ore and concentrates derived from low grade-quartzites) moves to nearby plants at Lipetsk and Tula, and 25 percent moves to the Urals. If plans for a 12-million-ton integrated iron and steel plant for the Comecon countries materialize, 40 percent of the ore will be consumed locally, still leaving 60 percent for shipment to other steel plants. See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 593–94.     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

Geographical Problems in the Iron and Steel Industry of the USSR

Technological advances in the Soviet iron and steel industry are producing changes in the locational pattern of the industry. The increasing concentration of production in large iron and steel plants requires the use of large iron-mining establishments of the order of 30 million tons of crude ore. Iron and steel plants were once viewed in the Soviet Union as oriented toward the market of a particular economic region. But the growing plant capacity and a trend toward specialization in particular types of finished products tend to expand the marketing zone of individual plants far beyond the boundaries of single economic regions. Future planning of the industry is in terms of five basic iron and steel zones: Central Russia, Urals, South, Siberia and Kazakhstan, of which the Urals and the South are fully integrated and the three others are in varying stages of formation. The declining share of coke in the blast-furnace charge tends to shift the locational pattern increasingly toward iron-ore sources, and this accounts to a certain extend for the gradual shift of iron and steel capacity toward Central Russia, with its ore reserves of the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly.     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE AND THE INTEGRATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERN REGIONS OF THE USSR

The construction of the BAM is viewed as serving two purposes: one, the development of new resource sites for export through Soviet Pacific ports, particularly to Japan; second, the accelerated development of new parts of East Siberia and the Far East, serving ultimately as a bridgehead for further advance toward the Northeast. Key resource areas to be given priority in development are the Neryungri coking-coal basin of South Yakutia, for export to Japan; the Udokan copper deposit, and the Molodezhnoye asbestos deposit. Because of the harsh environment, it is unlikely that any processing activities beyond mineral concentration and forest products industries will be located in the BAM zone, at least in the early stages of development. Food supply for the growing population will be largely dependent on hauls of bread and feed grains from southern portions of West Siberia and vegetables from as far away as Central Asia. Future territorial production complexes along the BAM are tentatively outlined.     

PREDICTION OF TRANSPORT-ECONOMIC LINKAGES IN THE USSR

Possible changes in production patterns of basic Soviet industries and the resulting interregional linkages and freight flows are projected over the next 25 to 30 years. Interregional energy flows are expected to be limited largely to oil and gas as well as power transmission at extra high voltages. Steam-coal movements will be restricted to the limits of particular economic regions, and coking-coal movements will be reduced as a result of technological changes in the iron and steel industry (electric steels, direct conversion, peat-based metallurgy). In general, the share of semifinished and finished goods is expected to increase and that of raw materials and fuels to decline in interregional hauls. The likely new flow patterns are examined for the Soviet Union's principal transport corridors.     

A Study of the Functional Structure of Urban Places of the USSR (in connection with the tasks of an economic-geographic typology)

The author, following previous work by himself and A.A. Mints, offers a functional typology and classification of Soviet cities based on the percentage of the urban labor force employed in industry and transportation combined and in industry alone. The classification is apparently based on unpublished employment data supplied to the author by the Central Statistical Administration USSR. The classification distinguishes major capital cities, diversified industrial, transport, local organizing, recreation, and other types of cities.     

20世纪90年代以来中国工业格局及其变化

本文从工业行业结构角度入手,以东中西为研究单元,结合全国30个省市,运用集中化指数、罗伦兹曲线等方法,分析1990年以来,中国工业行业格局和区域布局的变化情况,指出:东中西地区行业部门渐趋完备,但部门间发展不均衡程度加深;电子、机械类制造业在工业中的地位上升明显;工业对经济增长的贡献存在区际不平衡,东中西部地区依次减弱。     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

The Kursk Magnetic Anomaly—A Promising Iron-Ore Base for the Iron and Steel Industry of the Urals (based on a territorial model of the Soviet economy)

Following a previous article prepared together with N.M. Budtolayev and Yu. G. Saushkin (see Soviet Geography, November, 1965), the author develops the theory of a territorial model of the Soviet economy in general, and proposes a section of the model relating to the future ore sources of the Soviet iron and steel industry. It is argued that the Kursk Magnetic Anomaly would provide a more economical ore source for the iron and steel mills of the Urals than the nearby iron deposits of Rudnyy, in northwest Kazakhstan, or the small, scattered, and remote iron deposits of Siberia. The cost of economic development in the east and the availability of a heavy eastbound traffic of empty freight cars are cited as factors.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

The Role of Eastern Siberia in Solving Some of the Economic Problems of the Pacific Basin

The abundance of resources in the Soviet Far East and Eastern Siberia, combined with the known scarcity of fuel and energy supplies and certain raw materials in the countries of the Pacific basin, suggests that the resources of the eastern regions of the Soviet Union, could, if properly developed, find a wide market in countries bordering on the Pacific Ocean.