湖南省市镇规模等级结构的动态研究

本文应用市镇人口规模分布理论,研究了湖南省城市人口规模分布结构的动态变化及其基本特征。同时构造了2000年湖南省市镇序秩--规模分布模型,并利用logistic函数对预测结果进行了验证。预测表明:2000年南省市镇人口、市镇化水平分别约为2174万和32%,特大城市和大城市将扩大为长沙、衡阳、湘潭、株洲、岳阳和常德六市。据此对2000年湖南省市镇等级体系进行了规划。     

Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Interaction Models by Means of Optimal Control

This paper deals with the design of general classes of dynamic spatial interaction models. On the basis of a general (well-behaved) multiperiod objective function and of a dynamic model representing the evolution of a spatial interaction system, an optimal control model is constructed. Particular attention is given to the equilibrium and stability conditions. It turns out that it is possible to identify steady-state solutions for a dynamic spatial interaction model. Furthermore, it can also be demonstrated that the entropy model is a specific case of this spatial interaction system. A simple illustration for urban dynamics is given as well.     

A Framework for Exploring Urban Retail Discontinuities. 探索城市零售业不连续性的框架

A key area in the analysis of urban structural evolution is identifying discontinuities. Effective analysis could improve long‐term forecasting and provide a better understanding of how to steer an urban system toward a desirable future state. We use a simple aggregate retail model to demonstrate an algorithm for identifying discontinuities in model parameter space. Explorations of retailing in both Greater London and South Yorkshire in the United Kingdom illustrate how understanding a system's potential for discontinuity can provide insights for both policy makers and retail businesses. The Harris and Wilson model, described in the section so‐named, is used as a simple archetype to illustrate the new framework. This model can be developed in a straightforward way to incorporate further refinement. In “ Executing the model and visualizing the results ,” we describe a single model run and in “ Investigating discontinuities ,” we explain our framework for detecting and analyzing discontinuities. “ Identifying discontinuities in the London retail system ” shows the results of applying this methodology to the Greater London retail system, and in “ Practical applications ,” we explore the policy applications for this technique as related to the decline of town centers in the South Yorkshire retail system. Some concluding comments are offered in “ Conclusions .”     

编制城市生态功能区划的相关思考

本文从生态功能区划的意义出发,对城市生态功能区划编制的工作方法及可应用的理论进行了介绍,并从(1)对城市生态系统的正确认识(2)注意建立可能的生态资源资料库(3)注意寻求城市生态系统可持续发展理想化模型(4)进行科学的生态功能区划(5)制定城市生态功能区建设导则等五方面提出如下观点:城市生态系统是以人的行为为主导,自然环境为依托,资源流动为命脉,社会体制为经络的社会-经济-自然复合生态系统;建立生态环境要素资料库及建立生态因素单因子图层库,是客观、科学编制生态区划的基础;以维持城市可持续发展要求为前提,研究自然生态系统的理想化平台模式和社会经济发展的理想化模型的最佳结合,才能构筑城市生态系统可持续发展理想化模型;以环境问题为导向,以环境安全为原则,以环境合理功能为目标,才能制定科学的生态功能区划;为确保城市生态环境质量的建设要求,保障生态功能区划实施的有效性,制定刚性与弹性相结合的城市生态功能区建设导则是必要的。     

现代城市管理新模式:城市网格化管理综述

随着现代城市的快速发展,传统的城市管理手段和方式远远不能满足现代城市管理的要求,将现代城市管理理论与"数字城市"技术相结合而形成了新的城市管理模式-城市网格化管理。该模式将城市管理过程分为信息收集、案卷建立、任务派遣、任务处理、处理反馈、核实结案等环节,它采用的网格管理法、城市部件管理法、两个轴心的管理体制等是对现代城市管理模式的极大创新。     

A Dynamic Model of Growth in a Central Place System

A model is developed in which the change in the population distribution of a region is linked to the employment pattern, and this latter in turn to the population distribution through the concepts of central place theory. The result is a dynamic model of interacting urban centers in which the fluctuations (the exact history) of the system play a vital role, and with which the effect of an infrastructure decision can be estimated in the long term.     

Regional urbanization and the selective growth of towns in North American regions

Despite the extensive discussion of urbanization in the North American past, the processes of selective growth among the various towns and cities, which comprise a regional urban system, remain obscured by the use of oversimplified explanations that neglect either functional and locational variations among the centres or the changing conditions of regional development. A generalized model of selective urban growth in newly settling regions is proposed which distinguishes three periods of development by characteristics of circulation and export activity. It emphasizes the changing implications of town locations (their nodality) as settlement expands and the bases of urban growth shift from commercial and local services to increasingly manufacturing. Discussion of the literature on regional urbanization, organized under five categories of traditional and more recent explanations of selective growth, not only points to the temporal and locational deficiencies which the model addresses, but also reveals the need for closer examination within a developmental framework of both the interdependencies of central place and mercantile bases of urban growth and the relationships between the emergence of manufacturing and city sizes.     

无锡市形态扩展的空间差异研究

从20世纪初,城市形态就成为城市地理学研究的重要内容之一,主要是从景观角度进行静态式的研究。因缺乏度量技术,研究范围日趋缩小^[1]。本文把城市形态作为一个动态变化的现象,在遥感和地理信息系统支持下,研究城市扩展的空间方向、扩展的空间差异,并建立城市扩展的空间变化模型,预测城市形态未来的扩展趋势。     

The Pace of Indian Urbanization

In contrast with conventional formulations of urban growth, Tolley proposed a simple, supply-driven model relying upon the intersectoral differential in nonlabor productivity growth as the prime motivator of urbanization in developing countries. In the present paper, we apply Tolley's model to India over the period 1951–1981 and attempt to explain its mixed performance in tracking the pace of urbanization in that country. A modified version, adjusted for inter-regional migration, is then simulated for individual Indian states; the exercise confirms actual urban growth during 1971–81 to have been generally below that predicted by Tolley's model. Tolley's assumptions then are tested through an examination of the relationship between urban growth rates and translog indexes of intertemporal productivity growth. Finally, exploratory analysis of Tolley-model deviations in the various states is used to suggest directions for extending urban growth formulations for India. We conclude with a normative examination of policy implications.     

城市系统演化模型与模拟分析

本文详细地介绍了P. M. Allen的城市系统演化模型(EMUS),对EMUS模拟的部分结果与城市地理的一些联系也作了详细分析,如城市发展过程模拟, EMUS与Zipf法则, EMUS与中地论, EMUS中的决策效应模拟等。     

城市旅游地生命周期的系统动态模型

对城市旅游和旅游地生命周期的概念进行了分析和界定,在评述国内外相关研究成果的基础上,提出了一般城市旅游地生命周期的研究框架,并论述了系统动力学方法对于旅游地生命周期研究的适用性和有效性,构建了一般城市旅游地旅游发展的系统动态模型,解释了旅游地发展的系统内部结构和各要素的作用机制。     

帕雷托公式重构及其与城市体系演化

本文首次提出并论证了帕雷托公式关于城市体系规模结构"均衡度"和"结构容量"两个指数,并以此对传统的帕雷托公式进行重新构建。重构后的帕雷托公式不仅成为描述城市体系规模分布的一般性模式,还全面展示了城市体系的各种演化状态,使其应用范围得以扩展。最后本文成功地运用重构后的帕雷托公式对"八五"期间我国各大区城市体系的演化状态作了全方位的应用性研究。     

城乡耦合地域系统相互作用模型建构及应用——以南京为例

在总结国内外城乡双系统相互作用动力机制研究的基础上,本文依据现代系统科学理论引入城乡过渡地区即城乡耦合地域系统非线性动态模型,提取耦合度指标以反映整个系统演化状态以及系统内城市主关联系统与乡村主关联系统在耦合界面上相互作用的协调程度。以南京为例,运用主成分分析法从28项指标中提取经济发展水平、社会协调程度、资源设施配给率、环境负反馈机制等四项主因子对其进行耦合度实证辨析,以此了解南京城乡耦合地域系统演化规律性,为进一步深化科学规划和管理该地域的理论实践提供了借鉴。     

GRAVITY MODEL APPLICATIONS IN HEALTH PLANNING: ANALYSIS OF AN URBAN HOSPITAL MARKET*

ABSTRACT. In this paper a gravity model is formulated to model a hospital patient flow system. Both spatial and nonspatial measures of separation are used to estimate the model. Travel time was found to provide improved fits over linear distance in modeling patient flow behavior. Transformations of travel time (square root and log) were found to improve model performance further. Model diagnostics suggested additional spatial separation measurw, separation measure parameters demonstrated stability over time. The model is used to forecast the effects of health care financing reform and hospital closure on patient flows in an urban hospital market. Universal health coverage was found to dramatically improve access to hospital services for lower income patient populations. Hospitals at risk for closure were forecast to receive increased patient flows. Medical school hospitals are expected to lose patients after implementation of health reform, with important implications for graduate medical education. Hospital closures were shown to have negative effects on access to services in poor neighborhoods, but relatively little effect on access in the system as a whole.     

四川盆地城市群主要城市通达性及空间联系强度研究

根据最短时间距离模型和综合通达性模型计算了四川盆地城市群内18个城市的交通通达性,并建立最短时间距离矩阵表征各城市之间的空间联系强度。研究表明:用最短时间距离计算的成都通达性最优,而重庆通达性居于第13位;综合通达性模型表明重庆通达性最好,成都居第2位,川东北城市也居于前列。研究还表明在四川盆地城市群内形成了以成都为中心的紧密联系的空间一体化。但是,四川省各城市与重庆的空间联系紧密程度却很低,形成了明显的"空间背离"。未来几年内重庆将成为四川盆地城市群内最重要的交通枢纽。     

新经济下广州城市竞争力分析

本文评述了新经济及竞争力的研究进展,认为新经济下城市竞争力的系统研究尚不多见;分析了城市竞争力发展的阶段及驱动因素,参考硅谷的发展模式,总结了新经济下城市竞争力系统的要素组成,并受经济全球化、信息技术革命、创新精神等外界环境影响。文章具体构建了新经济下城市竞争力的评价指标体系,选取北京、上海、深圳为对比城市,对新经济下广州竞争力作了比较分析,并对新经济下广州城市竞争力的内部差异作了分析。文章最后对新经济下提高广州的竞争力提出了建议。     

SPATIAL ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE IN AN URBAN HIERARCHY SYSTEM

ABSTRACT. This paper develops a model to examine the economic interaction between central places and their hinterlands. The model allows interindustry linkages and upward trade flows in an urban hierarchy system. Trade balance equilibrium between hierarchical levels is established by direct mutual interlevel trade, rather than by indirect trade via the rural sector. The economic base multipliers generally increase with city size but occasionally they could be smaller than those of lower places. A continuous urban hierarchy is formed due to their relative location within the system, not to unspecified randomness.     

中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的定量模拟与验证

在城市群的形成发育过程中，伴随着城市群内部文化、旅游、科技产业资源优化再配置和协同集聚效应的共同作用，城市群“文化—旅游—科技”产业融合发展水平表现为随时间序列呈指数式增长的攀升态势。本文通过对城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律的基本原理进行分析，建立相关数理模型得到几何表达式；继而构建城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展的评价指标体系，运用引入时间调整系数改进的耦合协调度模型，计算得到中国城市群及所辖城市的产业融合发展水平并进行时空演化分析；最后使用模拟验证的方法对中国城市群“文—旅—科”产业融合发展水平攀升规律进行拟合验证，探究中国城市群的产业融合发展路径。     

Using Fractal Dimensions for Characterizing Intra‐urban Diversity: The Example of Brussels

The objective of this paper is to compare fractal‐based parameters calculated by different fractal methods for urban built‐up areas and to link the observed spatial variations to variables commonly used in urban geography, urban economics, or land‐use planning. Computations are performed on Brussels, Belgium. Two fractal methods (correlation and dilation) are systematically applied for evaluating the fractal dimension of built‐up surfaces; correlation is used to evaluate the fractal dimension of the borders (lines). Analyses show that while fractal dimension is ideal for distinguishing the morphology of Brussels, each estimation technique leads to slightly different results. Interesting associations are to be found between the fractal dimensions and rent, distance, income, and planning rules. Despite its limitations, fractal analysis seems to be a promising tool for describing the morphology of the city and for simulating its genesis and planning. The model is robust: it replicates the urban spatial regularities and patterns, and could hence fruitfully be integrated into intra‐urban simulation processes.     

国外对空间剥夺及其城市社区资源剥夺水平研究的现状与趋势

本文从城市社会地理学的社会-生活空间质量观的视角、结合国外相关研究文献,首次系统地分析了国外对空间剥夺以及城市社区资源剥夺研究的现状、内容,及其所涉及的相关学科以及在此基础上所形成的研究理念、流派、原理与方法。总结了这一研究命题对城市管理、城市规划、社区规划与商娱场所空间布局的指导意义,以期为国内的相关研究提供借鉴。