The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

Factors Shaping the Hierarchical Structure of the System of Fishery Settlements in the Northern Caspian

A number of settlement systems in Astrakhan' Oblast are defined on the basis of technological, administrative and service linkages within the North Caspian fishery industry. The industry is broken down into four successive stages in the production cycle: (1) fish harvesting; (2) primary processing and (3) production of semifinished products; (4) canning and caviar production. The settlement systems of the fish industry are characterized in terms of the significance of each production stage in the total output and in terms of the types of linkages in the production and distribution process (linkages within settlement systems, between systems, and shipments outside the oblast). Five systems are distinguished within Astrakhan' Oblast, each focused on a major processing center. The linkages are mapped, and the parameters of the systems are presented in a table.     

Spatial Shifts in the Population of Moscow Region

An American geographer and senior Russian demographer/migration specialist examine spatial shifts in the distribution of population within Moscow city and Moscow Oblast in response to major social and economic changes occurring in the aftermath of the USSR's disintegration. This second installment (for the first, see Ioffe and Zayonchkovskaya, 2010) in a three-part study devoted to exploring the consequences and spatial manifestations of Russia's shrinking population is focused on the one relatively small part of that country that is expected to experience population growth over the next one and one-half decades (albeit strictly due to in-migration rather than natural increase). Particular attention is devoted to the effects of emerging real estate and land markets during the post-Soviet period, on the restructuring of the regional settlement system focused on the Russian capital, as well as the insights to be derived (based on a case study) from investigating processes of spatial population shifts at multiple scales.     

GEOGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE FIXED ASSETS OF RURAL PLACES

The use of fixed assets data as a geographical research tool is illustrated with reference to a rural rayon [minor civil division] of Kaluga Oblast, southwest of Moscow. The value of fixed assets by places is correlated with population size, the position of places within the system of settlement of particular state farms or collective farms, and distance from towns. The share of productive assets (farm buildings and equipment) is found to reach a maximum in places with populations of 100 to 200. In larger places, the share of productive assets declines because of the higher value of housing and the presence of most service facilities. The share of productive assets also tends to be low in suburban places where a substantial portion of the population commutes to nearby towns.     

THE LENINGRAD REGIONAL SOCIOECONOMIC COMPLEX: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT

The evolving settlement network of Leningrad city and Leningrad Oblast, considered as a single planning region, is described, as are a number of changes anticipated by the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (stabilization and eventual reduction in the size of the local labor force, structural economic change toward “nonproductive” activities, closer attention to the balance between the region's economic profile and local resources and infrastructure). Of particular interest are recommendations for restricting further development in some machine-building sectors to renovation and retooling, for growing more perishable agricultural commodities locally, and for recognizing the Leningrad agglomeration as an official planning entity (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR IDENTIFYING RURAL PLACES WITH GROWTH PROSPECTS: (with particular reference to Kaliningrad Oblast)

One of the key objectives in the rural development program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR is the consolidation of rural settlement in larger places. An example of the dispersed settlement pattern is Kaliningrad Oblast, which has a total of 1,527 rural places ranging from fewer than 5 to more than 2,000 inhabitants, with a total rural population of 195,529 (1970 census). The author shows that growth prospects are dependent on a combination of five factors—geographical setting and level of development; population; fixed assets in agriculture; nonfarm fixed assets; availability of services—and, using correlation analysis, identifies 283 places with prospects of future growth, ranging from 32 in the 51–100 size class to one of more than 2,000 population. The preservation of some small rural places is termed inevitable because many serve as outlying settlements for livestock subdivisions of collective and state farms, and dairy and beef cattle represents a characteristic type of farming in Kaliningrad Oblast.     

An Approach to the Mapping of Changes in the Settling Process

A variety of mapping techniques are used to establish regional differences in the settling process in Irkutsk Oblast and to measure the process in general terms. The most dynamic area, with urban and rural population growth, is the Middle Angara valley, where industrialization has been combined with the development of rural nonfarm places based on resource development and construction. Both urban and rural decline is typical of old mining districts, such as the coal district of Cheremkhovo and the gold area of Bodaybo. In most of Irkutsk Oblast, urban growth has been associated with rural decline. An important factor in the rural settling process has been a reduction of the number of places and an increase of the mean size of places, with remarkable stability in the 200–300 population class of rural places. Analysis of the settling process yields a map that distinguishes population growth, decline or stability in combination with a predominance of particular population size classes among rural places. A previous paper by the author on the mapping of the settling process appeared in Soviet Geography, December 1969.     

THE IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ON THE INCIDENCE OF LUNG CANCER AMONG RURAL RESIDENTS

Lung cancer mortality in the rural areas of Moscow Oblast is found to be virtually identical with data for urban areas. In an effort to establish a set of potential causative factors in rural areas, selected factors are correlated with lung cancer mortality by Moscow Oblast rayons. The highest positive correlation is found for the use of farm pesticides from the carcinogenic dithiocarbamate group, followed by the percentage of workers employed in agriculture, the amount of smoking per capita, the amount of dust-causing plowing, the use of farm machinery (producing exhaust gases) and the use of kerosene (producing household soot). A negative correlation is found between lung cancer and the percentage of white-collar workers employed in rural areas. The selected set of factors accounts for 45 percent of the variance in lung-cancer incidence, but no single specific factor can be isolated to explain the high mortality in rural areas, which evidently stems from a combination of causes.     

A Map of the Settlement Field Potential as a Special Type of Population Map

The concept of settlement field potential, a term preferred over “demographic potential,” is applied to the territory of Tyumen' Oblast in Western Siberia. The generalizad resulting pattern of potential is then compared with a convential population density, and differences and similarities are noted. The maps, not reproduced in the article, are to be published in the Atlas of Tyumen' Oblast, which is in press.     

Techniques for the Recreational Evaluation of an Area

Because of the problem of factor weights in any integral evaluation of landscapes for recreational purposes, a systems approach is proposed for classifying factors in terms of relative significance. Internal and external landscape structures are distinguished. Internal structure involves the organization of the landscape, including components and their natural interactions. External structure reflects the landscape system's relations with other systems, either adjacent landscapes or systems of human activities. For purposes of recreational evaluation, landscape elements must be differentiated into classes in terms of their impact on recreation: active elements, favoring particular recreational uses; limiting elements; compensatory elements. The state of recreational resources must also take account of current economic use of the land. Some types of economic uses combine more readily with recreational uses than others. The systems technique is illustrated with reference to the Moscow region and the Issyk-Kul' basin in Central Asia.     

New Perspectives on Spatial Patterns of Agrarian Reform: A Comparison of Two Russian Oblasts

The author, based on field work, interviews, and examination of local and regional literature and official statistical sources, compares the experience in agrarian reform in two disparate locations—KostToma Oblast, northeast of Moscow in the Noncher-nozem Region, and Rostov Oblast on Russia's Black Sea littoral in the fertile Chernozem (Black Earth) region. It examines both the reorganization of state and collective farms and the establishment of private peasant farms in the two oblasts, with particular emphasis on the latter. The sections on private farms represent an initial attempt, based on in-depth information for a limited sample population, to garner insights, at the rayon level, into factors that may be influencing regional variations in the number, size, and location of private farms across the Russian countryside. 2 maps, 6 tables, 53 references.     

COMMUTING LINKS AT LOWER LEVELS OF RURAL SETTLEMENT

The study of commuting links in rural areas of the Non-Chernozem Zone offers a useful approach to the redesign of settlement patterns. Commuting to work is analyzed in 80 primary settlement systems (farm systems) in five rayons of Vologda Oblast. Most of the commuting streams are found to occur toward the central farm settlements within systems and also between adjacent systems, with rural nonfarm places (both industry-based and transport based) offering the principal opportunities for employment. Commuting is analyzed in terms of two indices: a labor-balance index (relating resident population and employment opportunities) and a commuting intensity index (relating the number of commuters to resident population).     

THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION OF MILK PRODUCTION IN THE MOSCOW REGION AND WAYS OF IMPROVING IT

Ways of improving the locational pattern of milk production and processing facilities in Moscow Oblast are investigated in order to: (a) reduce the volume of long-distance whole milk imports during winter; (b) increase the size of the dairy herd in the Moscow Region, especially in the west, through more effective utilization of natural pasture and cultivated fodder; and (c) promote a shift in animal husbandry toward dairy stock in areas fringing the capital. Milk processing facilities are compared in terms of production capacity, direct sales versus shipments to higher-order processors, and percentage of output consumed within the oblast and by Moscow (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

THE SHAPES OF MOSCOW OBLAST CITIES

An analysis of the shapes of cities in the Moscow region finds that the linear, elongated form tends to predominate over the compact. City layout often derives from the arrangement of the axes of development. In many Moscow Oblast cities, these axes are the transport corridors radiating out of Moscow, and the corridors, often made up of parallel railroad, highway and river, account for the pronounced elongation of city shapes. From a historical perspective, linearity developed mainly in the last 50 to 60 years as new industrial plants and housing developments sprang up along the transport corridors. The author cautions against unhindered development of linearity since it may ultimately produce continuously urbanized belts along the major transport corridors radiating out of Moscow. Such a development is viewed as undesirable from the standpoint of regional planning because it would obliterate recreational facilities, which are now situated mainly along these transport routes.     

Economic-Geographic Prediction Of The Process Of Economic Development Of An Area (with particular reference to Irkutsk Oblast)

The present stage of economic development of Irkutsk Oblast is evaluated with a view to predicting future trends. The present stage is evaluated in terms of the economic structure of three intra-oblast regions (using Kolosovskiy's technique of energy-and-production cycles) and in terms of historical development axes reflected in settlement field potentials (see the author's paper in Soviet Geography, September 1970). Future development of the oblast is expected to be based on fuel and energy, forest, and nonferrous metal resources. The development process is said to operate both “in depth” (intensification) and “in breadth” (opening up of new areas). Development in depth, involving additional settling of high-density areas, produces pollution problems and involves the need for allocating recreation zones. Future development “in breadth” is expected in the northwest, northeast and south of the oblast, particularly along the border of Krasnoyarsk Kray, where a revision of administrative-political boundaries seems to be required. A reorientation toward the east of the oblast's predominantly westward orientation is advocated.     

MAPPING OF RECREATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AROUND A LARGE CITY (with particular reference to Moscow)

An analysis of recreation uses in the Moscow region shows a generalized radial pattern focused on the city of Moscow as the center of demand and an outward diffusion with distance from the city combined with clustering along railroad lines. This overall pattern is deformed by landscape differences, with higher density of recreation use in well drained wooded areas and lower density in swampy areas. The locational patterns of recreational use are further broken down by groups of users. [For a previous paper on recreation in the Moscow region, see the paper by Vedenin et al. in Soviet Geography, May 1977.]     

LEAD POLLUTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT FROM AUTOMOTIVE EXHAUST GASES

The impact of lead contamination of soils and plants along highways of Novgorod Oblast (between Moscow and Leningrad) is investigated. Lead content in roadside soils and crops is compared with control plots situated at a greater distance from highways. Lead content in soils up to 100 meters from roadways is found to be up to 15 times higher than in control plots; lead content in roadside crops, up to 10 meters from roadways, is found to be up to six times higher than in control plots. It is recommended that dwellings and garden plots be moved back from highways beyond the harmful zone. In the case of Novgorod Oblast such a protective roadside zone should be 100 meters wide.     

避暑旅游指数概念模型及评价指标体系构建

气候变暖背景下避暑旅游成为夏季旅游市场的主旋律。地方政府及旅游主管部门在培育避暑旅游目的地时应从何入,手旅游者如何能够准确地做出避暑旅游决策等是一个现实问题。本文在综述国内外相关研究与实践的基础上,认为舒适凉爽的夏季气候条件只是避暑旅游的最基本条件,创新性地提出应侧重从产业发展的角度,引入旅游休闲度、游客满意度和综合风险度等指标。避暑旅游评价指标体系的构建为目的地避暑旅游条件评估提供了理论框架,有助于游客准确地做出避暑旅游决策,同时也为目的地避暑旅游发展与提升提供一个具操作性的管理工具。     

ON THE STUDY OF SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS BY MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Two Soviet regional planners test several spatial interaction models with particular reference to the Kuznetsk Basin (Kemerovo Oblast), the southern belt of West Siberia and a portion of the North Caucasus (Krasnodar Kray). Existing techniques, such as gravity and potential models, are found to work well in areas with relatively uniform settlement patterns, such as the steppe zone of Krasnodar Kray or the southern Ob'-Irtysh subregion of West Siberia, but not in areas with sharp contrasts in settlement patterns, such as the Kuznetsk Basin, where a linear highly urbanized belt is enclosed between sparsely populated mountains. In such contrasting settings, a combination of methods is required.     

Regional Planning Problems in the Soviet Far East

A variety of approaches are being recommended in regional plans for future settlements patterns in the Soviet Far East. In Magadan Oblast, the present scattered pattern of small populated places is to be superseded by greater concentration of urban population in a set of subregional service centers. In Khabarovsk Kray, different approaches are being recommended for the future development of the Khabarovsk and Komsomol'sk areas. Because limitation of the future growth of Khabarovsk is desirable, new industrial establishments are to be located in the future in nearby small towns and urban settlements of the Khabarovsk industrial district. In the Komsomol'sk area, satellite towns are to be significantly developed, giving rise to a grouped form of urban settlement, including the tin-mining center of Solnechnyy and the paper and chemical center of Amursk. In Amur Oblast, consideration is being given to the development of an iron and steel plant in the Svobodnyy area, giving rise to a city of up to 200,000 population.