THE BAM AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE SOVIET FAR EAST

The construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline, which began in 1974 and is scheduled to be completed in 1983, is expected to have a profound impact on the economy of the Soviet Far East, whose development has long lagged because of lack of transport access to regional resources. The BAM is expected to foster the development of new industries, such as coal and steel, oil and gas, hydropower, metal fabrication and chemicals, and stimulate the expansion of traditional activities, such as gold and tin mining, fisheries and forest products. The BAM is also expected to play a key role in expanding trade between the Soviet Far East and the countries of the Pacific basin and the Indian Ocean. In light of the complex aspects of the BAM project, it is suggested that integrated planning procedures encompass not only the transport aspects of the project, but all economic activities to be generated as a result of the construction of the new railroad. In view of the labor shortage, a high level of labor-saving technology is recommended. Concern for the local environment is expressed in view of the extensive construction activities in permafrost. (Previous articles on the BAM appeared in Soviet Geography, April and October 1975.)     

Transition and Trade Perspectives on Eastern European Agriculture

In the economic and political restructuring of Eastern Europe, a new agricultural structure is taking shape, based upon private ownership, genuine cooperatives, and a market economy. Agricultural trade policy in six Eastern European nations will be characterized by the aim of self-sufficiency, but privatized and centered around market methods, improvement in agricultural systems will occur slowly, and over the long term may achieve self-sufficiency and greater exports. Meanwhile, Eastern European agriculture will provide investment and market opportunities for countries of the developed world.     

Developments in Russia's Far East and their implications for the Pacific Basin

The Soviet Union ceased to exist as a subject of international law and a geopolitical reality in December 1991 with the declaration of a new Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). For the present the territory formerly known as the Soviet Far East remains part of the Russian Republic controlled from Moscow, but its political and economic destiny remains uncertain. In 1986 Mikhail Gorbachev asserted that the USSR was an Asian-Pacific country and that the development of the Far East region was to be reinvigorated. This coincided with. and was closely related to, efforts designed to improve relations with several countries in the Pacific Basin, including Australia. This paper outlines some of the infrastructural, social and other obstacles to development that can only be overcome by financial and technological assistance from abroad. Lingering international tensions (such as the Kurile Islands dispute with Japan) and political, economic and administrative uncertainties within the Russian Republic and the CIS more generally have led private companies — including several in Australia — to defer their investment plans. It seems likely that it will be many years before the Russian Far East will have much impact on the economy of the Pacific Basin.     

俄罗斯远东的经济发展与中国人的作用

分析了远东地区经济发展落后的历史、地理、人口等原因,对中国人在沙皇俄国时期、前苏联和俄罗斯联邦等不同时期,在远东地区经济发展中的作用进行了论述,并对远东地区同中国开展经贸合作的必然性及中国人在远东地区的前景进行了展望。     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE SOVIET UNION

Analysis of spatial patterns of attained educational levels is helpful in understanding the cultural geography of an area, perhaps especially in the Soviet Union, with its many ethnic groups and stated aim of providing equality of education regardless of ethnicity or sex. The proportion of the population that had completed a higher education was mapped at oblast level from 1970 census data. High rates are found in certain urban areas, Estonia and Latvia, Georgia, and certain sparsely populated areas of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. There are regional patterns of disparity between male and female rates of completed higher education and between rural and urban rates, despite Soviet attempts to reduce these inequalities. The distribution of Soviet higher educational institutions conforms generally to the distribution of population, although access to higher education opportunities appears to be geographically limited in some regions. (Maps by Joann L. Krupa, George Mason University.)     

THE BAYKAL-AMUR MAINLINE A MAJOR NATIONAL CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

A Soviet planning official discusses planning for the BAM project, a major new railroad to be completed by 1982 in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East. The construction of a well equipped rail line, supplied with specially designed tank-cars unit trains, was found to be more economical than the construction of an ordinary railroad, needed for resource development north of the present Trans-Siberian, and of a separate oil pipeline from West Siberia's oil fields across Siberia to Far Eastern refineries and tanker export terminals. Under the decision taken by the Soviet planning authorities, crude oil will move by pipeline from the West Siberian fields to Tayshet, where it will be trans-shipped to tank-car trains taking the oil to Urgal. There it will be transferred again to pipelines for transmission to refineries and port terminals. [See also Soviet Geography, November 1974, pp. 587–590; map, p. 588.]     

THE NONCHERNOZEM DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM AND PROSPECTIVE SPATIAL SHIFTS IN GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE AGRICULTURAL TRIANGLE OF THE SOVIET UNION

The Soviet program to proceed from further expansion of the grain area in the semi-arid steppe zone to intensification of graingrowing in the humid Nonchernozem Zone after decades of neglect is considered a landmark decision in the history of Soviet agriculture. If successfully carried out, the Nonchernozem program might yield by the late 1980s a grain increment equivalent to the amount now being imported by the Soviet Union for its own needs and for re-export to its allies. The implementation of the Non-chernozem program would also have consequences for regional grain-production patterns in the Soviet Union. The Nonchernozem Zone would be in a position to make a more significant contribution to the demand for grain in the industrial centers of European Russia, thus easing the pressure on the virgin lands of northern Kazakhstan and reducing the need for the present long grain hauls. Finally, a greater shift of grain production into the humid Nonchernozem would be in keeping with a program of water economies since grain output in the humid zone requires less than half of the water needed for grain production in the arid zone. The success of the Nonchernozem program is conditioned on greater attention to the development of rural infrastructure, particularly roads, which the author considers a key element in upgrading the agriculture of the region.     

THE SOVIET OIL INDUSTRY IN THE TWELFTH FIVE-YEAR PLAN

The article briefly considers the question of conservation and oil displacement in recent years. It then focuses on the problem of petroleum supplies, on the factors affecting their expansion, and on Soviet efforts and plans in the field. Investment growth in the oil industry and its regional allocation in the 1980s and beyond are examined. The nature and thrust of the exploratory effort, its relationship to the new reserve classifications, and to prospects for the Soviet oil industry are analyzed. Finally, the causes of the current rebound in output and Soviet plans for field development are assessed.     

SOVIET TERRITORIAL CLAIMS IN THE ARCTIC AND THEIR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS

The increasing importance of the Soviet Arctic for navigation in connection with a northward shift of resource development and the strengthening of the Soviet icebreaker fleet with nuclear-powered icebreakers and modern conventional icebreakers has focused attention on the issue of freedom of navigation in the Soviet sector of the Arctic. The Soviet sector, defined in a 1926 decree as extending from the mainland to the North Pole, comprises the Northern Sea Route, which the Soviet Union regards as an internal shipping route, and seas of the Arctic Ocean that it views as historic waters. Because of differences in the interpretation of international law, there is ambiguity regarding the right of innocent passage through the Soviet Arctic by vessels of other nations. The growing significance of Arctic shipping operations raises the timeliness of the issue.     

THE 1929 MEETING OF SOVIET GEOGRAPHY TEACHERS: A KEY EVENT IN THE HISTORY OF SOVIET ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

A Soviet economic geographer who participated in a 1929 conference of geography teachers describes the antecedents, the atmosphere and the proceedings of this crucial meeting in a stormy period of the discipline. It was a landmark in the history of Soviet economic geography in marking the beginning of the end of the old sectoral-statistical approach and inaugurating the new regional school led by N. N. Baranskiy.     

AN APPRAISAL OF THE SOVIET CONCEPT OF THE TERRITORIAL PRODUCTION COMPLEX

The paper, contributing to one of the research goals of the Commission on Industrial Systems, International Geographical Union, provides an appraisal of the Soviet approach to spatial organization of the economy known as the territorial production complex. The authors review the genesis of the concept, definitional criteria, and its practical formation and operation, making occasional comparison with Western approaches to spatial economic organization. An unresolved problem for Soviet planners is the provision of a coordinating administrative authority for each territorial complex that would integrate the activities of individual industrial ministries involved in the creation of the complex; the current thinking of Soviet planners is illuminated by a recent statement appended to the paper. (For a previous Western view of Soviet regional development models, see G. A. Huzinec in Soviet Geography, October 1976.)     

PROSPECTS FOR SOVIET GAS EXPORTS: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS

This paper assesses the prospects for Soviet gas exports to Western Europe, analyzing both supply (domestic) factors, such as gas production, consumption, and transportation, and demand (foreign) factors such as gas demand and market share. This is done using a network allocation model of the Soviet gas pipeline network (for 1985, 1990, and 1995) and a country-by-country analysis of the gas market in Western Europe. In general, the outlook for increased gas exports to Western Europe, at least to the turn of the century, is rather bleak. This is mainly due to a relatively slower rate of growth of gas demand in Western Europe than projected earlier, coupled with overcontracting of gas supplies, because the USSR has enormous gas reserves, ample production, and no major pipeline bottlenecks restricting export volumes. Its huge pipeline construction program allows both domestic consumption and exports to be comfortably accommodated     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

A Unique Event in Iran–Soviet Economic Relations: The 1935 Iranian Trade Delegation to the USSR

The Iranian trade delegation’s visit to the USSR in April–May 1935 was an event of global significance, underscored by its extensive coverage in the international press. Marking the culmination of a new turn in the Soviet Union’s policy approaches towards Iran with respect to bilateral economic relations, this event is also considered in view of earlier incidents involving Iranian merchants who had boycotted Soviet trade organizations. Along with these political developments, the perspectives of Iranian government officials on foreign trade and industrialization are analyzed within the context of the increasing expansion, centralization, and bureaucratization of Iran’s national economy during the 1930s.     

The Anatomy of Russian Foreign Trade Statistics

The study, by a noted Japanese economist and observer of Soviet and post-Soviet economic affairs, represents a pioneering effort to evaluate the statistical data base reflecting Russian foreign trade. The author examines in minute detail the inconsistencies and deficiencies of data compiled from 1985 to mid-1994, focusing on classification and highlighting the changing and conflicting methods of compilation. Tracing and tabulating data valued in dollars and foreign trade rubles, he also covers and analyzes Russian statistics detailing trade in commodities. Also discussed is the geographic distribution of Russian exports and imports to foreign countries in the late 1980s and 1990s. 1 figure, 10 tables, 37 references.     

SUBSTITUTION OF NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS FOR PETROLEUM IN THE SOVIET PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY

This paper examines the prospects for switching the Soviet petrochemical industry from an oil to a gas base, by substituting more natural gas liquids (NGL) for the light petroleum fractions currently used. In other countries with a large domestic gas industry, such as the United States, the petrochemical industry is based largely on natural gas liquids (NGL). Thus, with the accelerating development of its own gas industry (now the largest in the world), the USSR has the potential to change its feedstock mix to take advantage of increased NGL supplies, freeing more of the light petroleum fractions for other uses, such as transportation. However, changes in feedstock usage have been in the opposite direction, with increasing reliance on refined petroleum liquids, with little of the available NGL being used for petrochemicals. This is partly because of differences in regional availability of NGL: most of the Soviet petrochemical industry is concentrated in the Volga-Urals region, while most of Soviet hydrocarbons now are produced in West Siberia. Another factor is the small size and limited capabilities of the Soviet gas processing industry.     

THE SOVIET METROPOLITAN HIERARCHY: REGIONALIZATION AND COMPARISON WITH THE UNITED STATES

The rapid growth of Soviet cities is converging toward a hierarchy similar to that of the United States. The numbers of aggregate populations of metropolitan centers by five size categories in the two countries are compared for growth and change from 1939 to 1976. Also, nine Soviet urban regions are identified, mapped, and correlated with comparable American groupings. Growth rates of Soviet metropolises are normalizing with less recent variation as compared to the 1939–59 period, a trend that parallels the one in the United States. Also, it appears that certain functions, such as administration and transportation, are stabilizing factors in urban growth. Governmental policies of investment in underdeveloped regions, balanced growth and diversification may be partially thwarted by five-year planning goals that have stimulated supragrowth in large cities of the South and East. However, it seems likely that increasing mobility, amenities and the expansion of consumer goods and services will produce a reversal of trends toward higher growth rates in the metropolitan centers of the West. Projections to the year 2000 suggest that Soviet metropolises will have a larger share of the national population and a more uniform growth pattern than those in the United States.     

SOME DATA ON CHANGES IN TRANSPORT ACCESSIBILITY OF EAST SIBERIA AND THE SOVIET FAR EAST IN CONNECTION WITH CONSTRUCTION OF THE BAM

The impact of the Baikal-Amur Mainline on accessibility to resource sites in East Siberia and the Soviet Far East is measured. At the present time, a little more than one-half of the developed southern portion of the region lies within 200 km of the Trans-Siberian. As a result of the construction of the BAM, nearly 75 percent of the area will be within 200 km of the nearest railroad. The gains in distance to the nearest railroad are mapped, and show a maximum gain (of 420–450 km) in an area northeast of the northern tip of Lake Baikal. Although the BAM, because of difficult terrain, is still distinguished by a high coefficient of sinuosity (compared with the great-circle distance), it does represent a gain over the present distance from the Pacific coast to points west of Lake Baikal.     

THE PRESENT STATE AND TASKS OF COMPLEX MAPPING IN THE USSR

Recent developments in the Soviet Union's program of national thematic mapping and regional complex mapping are reviewed. A comprehensive mapping program along these lines, formulated in 1969 by GUGK, the government planning agency, has not been implemented. National thematic maps in the Soviet Union continue to be compiled by individual government agencies without coordination and without uniformity in legend and design, so that comparability is made difficult. The only thematic GUGK maps now being prepared are concerned with two long-term regional development programs in the Soviet Union–the rural development plan for the Nonchernozem zone of the European RSFSR and the construction of the Baykal-Amur Mainline (BAM) railroad in the Soviet Far East. The need for a comprehensive and coordinated program of national thematic maps and regional atlases or map series is once again stressed in connection with economic planning and environmental problems, and a program of continuously updated regional atlases, based on digital data banks, is proposed. Suggestions are also made for the coordination of thematic maps at the international level.