LIFE CYCLE AND MIGRATION TO URBAN AND RURAL AREAS: ESTIMATION OF A MIXED LOGIT MODEL ON FRENCH DATA*

ABSTRACT This paper examines which types of individuals are attracted to or repelled from rural and urban areas in France. Migration decisions among urban centers, suburbs, and rural areas are examined for three age groups. Differences between locations are assumed to be driven by agglomeration economies and externalities resulting from densities. We therefore stress the role of labor‐market size, land markets, and commuting time in migration decisions. The results from multinomial mixed logits show that large labor markets attract the youngest and in particular educated individuals. Larger family size favors migration from city centers to suburbs, whereas divorce and widowhood increase the probability of moving to an urban center.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

契约华工在南非(1904-1910)--兼论南非华、印侨工之比较

本文以19世纪末、20世纪初世界经济转型和劳动力大迁徙为国际背景,记载了1904-1910年南非契约华工的历史.文章主要围绕契约华工赴南非的历史原因,中、英两国政府的相关政策,华工在南非金矿的劳动和生活状况以及南非契约华工的历史影响与贡献等方面进行分析与阐述.此外,本文通过记述劳动力迁移过程中,南非契约华工与印度侨工的不同经历,比较了二者在迁移类型和生活境遇上的异同;并针对其产生差异的原因作出分析.     

深圳与全国区域经济联系的测度及分析——基于人口迁移模型的研究

深圳工业化过程中同全国各省区建立起了资金、技术、市场以及人才(包括劳动力)方面的广泛联系。本文基于外来人口指标,构建了深圳户籍人口迁移模型,并加以测度及分析,从人口迁移角度得出以下结论:首先,深圳同全国各省区经济联系强度与两地的人口规模成正比;其次,与两地的交通距离成反比;第三,深圳与全国的经济联系呈辐射状的圈层结构;第四,外来户籍人口数与两地收入差距相关性不明显。进而分析了形成这种联系格局的其他影响因素,并对深圳加强与全国区域经济联系提出政策建议。     

UNION REPUBLIC MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE USSR DURING THE 1980s

This article examines union republic migration trends in the USSR between 1979 and 1987 and prospects for indigenous out-migration from rural areas in Central Asia. The study is based on migration data derived by the residual technique and migration data from the 1985 microcensus. Results indicate that a south-to-north and probably Russian-dominated migration trend emerged in the 1980s, one which marks an almost complete reversal from earlier periods, especially 1959-70. Although Central Asia continues to have low levels of indigenous out-migration, labor surpluses and relatively waning capital investment in Central Asia may change this situation.     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

DISTANCE FROM URBAN AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AND RURAL POVERTY*

ABSTRACT Despite strong national economic growth and significant poverty reduction during the late 1990s, high poverty persisted in remote rural areas. This study uses a geographical information system county database to examine the nexus between rural U.S. poverty and remoteness. We find that poverty rates increase with greater rural distances from successively larger metropolitan areas (MAs). We explain this outcome as arising from the attenuation of urban agglomeration effects at greater distances and incomplete commuting and migration responses to lower labor demand in rural areas. One implication is that remote areas may particularly experience greater reductions in poverty from place‐based economic development policies.     

劳动力转移的理论流派与地理学的视角

简单回顾了关于劳动力转移的几种主要理论观点,除综合性的分析外,将劳动力迁移理论归纳为四类分析框架,即二元结构转换理论,以个人决策、成本-收益为主的分析理论,受家庭、社会结构影响的收益-风险分析框架,环境与移民相关分析学派。对人文地理学对劳动力问题的理解,以及近年来国内人文地理学在劳动力转移问题研究的主要议题进行了总结。认为,与现有的成熟理论相比,当前国内地理学对农村劳动力转移的研究存在框架和核心的缺失,偏重于刻画人口/劳动力流动的空间特征,对城市的特别关注,尤其是外来人口对城市空间和城市经济的影响,关注劳动力转移的影响,对劳动力转移的条件、过程的研究不够。对地理学调整改变视角,发挥学科优势,参与中国农村劳动力转移研究提出了建议。     

AMENITIES VERSUS LABOR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES: CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL DISTANCE TO MOVE*

ABSTRACT. A recent debate in the regional economics literature has focused attention on the motivation behind an individual's decision to migrate. Human-capital migration models emphasize labor market disequilibria whereas alternative (hedonic) migration models stress households’altered demand for nontraded goods. In this paper, we test the relative importance of these two possible motivations for moving between metropolitan areas. We use an intercity hedonic model to decompose wages into equilibrium and disequilibrium components. We then compare the separate influences of amenities and the disequilibrium component of wages on the distance moved between two metropolitan areas. Our findings indicate that both economic factors and amenity differentials are significant factors in explaining regional migration.     

Types and Patterns of Later-life Migration

This paper refines previous typologies of later-life mobility by explicitly evaluating the spatial migration patterns and household characteristics of retired American migrants. Migrants' lifecourse attributes (economic status, disability, presence of spouse), large-scale migration patterns (internal migration) and household characteristics (living arrangements, economic independence, residential independence) are used to identify three types of post-retirement mobility. The first type, amenity migration , has a distinctive spatial pattern that suggests a search for attractive climate and leisure amenities. The second type of mobility, assistance migration , can be traced to low income and the absence of a spouse in the household. It often results in residential and economic dependence – specifically, in co-residence with adult children or other labor force members. The third type of mobility, migration in response to severe disability and spouse absence , tends to result in nursing home residence. While amenity migration has long been associated with good health and favorable economic status, this analysis reveals that many disabled and lower-income retirees share the inmigration pattern typical of amenity migrants. In fact, amenity migration is the predominant type of mobility among those migrants with fewer than two unfavorable lifecourse attributes (low income, severe disability and spouse absence). Unlike previous lifecourse typologies, this study shows no clear relationship between moderate disability and co-residence with adult children. The results suggest that co-residence is primarily a strategy for reducing living costs rather than a means of coping with moderate disability.     

The Present State of Landscape Studies

A sociologist urges increased location of industry in small towns and rural areas as part of the ultimate goal of eliminating substantial differences between town and countryside in the Soviet Union. He cites examples in which the building of industrial plants has helped raise the standard of living of rural areas and reduced the gap between the levels of industrial and farm labor.     

ARE IMMIGRANTS MORE MOBILE THAN NATIVES? EVIDENCE FROM GERMANY

Low rates of internal migration in many European countries contribute to the persistence of significant regional labor market differences. I use the Mikrozensus, a large annual sample of households living in Germany, to further our understanding of the underlying reasons. This paper makes two main contributions: first, the paper quantifies the disutility of migrating. To this end, I estimate conditional logit models of the migration decision across the German federal states. Second, I then focus on the differences between immigrants and natives. I find significantly higher responsiveness to labor market differentials in the immigrant population than in the native population. Unobserved moving costs for immigrants are estimated to be only about 31 percent of this same cost for natives. The findings bear on the assessment of the economic impact of immigration, and the paper contributes to the current immigration‐related policy debates that feature prominently in many European countries, and that likely will continue to be important in light of the ongoing EU expansion and the resulting east–west migration.     

Employment Opportunities,Wages and International Migration in Sweden 1970–1989

In this study I focus on the impact of aggregate labor turnover and regional labor market conditions on gross in- and out-migration within the framework of a neoclassical flexible-wage (equilibrium) model and a fixed-wage (labor-market disequilibrium) model. Using annual panel data on internal gross migration flows in Sweden from 1970 to 1989, I find that regional differences in employment opportunities have the expected effects on migration. The empirical relationship between real wages and gross migration flows is found to be less congruent with theory implications, indicating that compensated regional income prospects are equalized primarily via the interaction between employment opportunities and gross migration flows. Cyclical changes in hirings are shown to have a robust and strongly significant positive scale effect on migration.     

生态移民区旅游劳工移民转移研究——以宁夏镇北堡镇为例

宁夏银川市镇北堡镇作为全国生态移民的典型地区,毗邻镇北堡西部影视城,地处银川西线黄金旅游长廊腹地,是贺兰山东麓旅游带上具有一定规模的旅游服务中心。在移民区后续发展中,旅游劳工的转移研究有着重要的意义。在对旅游劳工的概念进行界定的基础上,分析了影响镇北堡镇旅游劳工转移的政策、经济、劳动力转移成本、城镇"拉力"四大因素,指出了旅游劳工转移面临的主要问题,并从区位、职业、空间尺度三个方面探索了镇北堡镇旅游劳工转移方向,提出了促进该区域旅游劳工合理转移的一些措施。     

Migration and Occupational Choice among Young Labor Force Entrants: A Human Capital Model

Interregional variations in the conditions for entering the labor force are investigated by analyzing interdependencies between migration behavior and occupational choice for young labor force entrants. The human capital framework indicates that occupational choice depends on the costs and returns associated with entering various occupations, and that interregional variation in these costs and returns is a major reason for migration. Occupational choice and migration behavior will be interdependent if the costs and returns for particular occupations vary over local labor markets, relative to other occupations, and patterns of interdependence between the two decisions are analyzed, using a model of the joint choice of occupation and location. An empirical analysis of occupational choices and migration behavior for young people who entered the U.S. labor force in the 1975–80 period indicates that the odds for entering professional or managerial occupations varied with origin and migration behavior in systematic ways.     

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT IN THE USSR: NEW INFORMATION ON DISTRIBUTION

Analysis of newly available data and recent newspaper reports on the corrective labor system reveals important distributional and spatial aspects to the problem of crime and its punishment in the USSR. The article supplies data on the major categories of offenses, notes the general similarity of crime rates between rural and urban areas and the significant interregional variations in overall and specific crime rates. Evidence is presented which indicates that the total crime rate in Siberia and the Far East greatly exceeds the USSR average. This is attributable to distinctive features of the region's population structure, the instability of its labor force, unsatisfactory living conditions, and the (relatively) still large number of inmates brought to corrective labor camps in Siberia from all over the country.     

我国大学生就业城市选择意愿及其影响因素分析

引导大学生合理的就业流动是促进各类城市协调发展的有效途径。本文以不同类型的就业城市为研究对象,通过全国7个城市的1600余份调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型分析了我国大学生就业城市的选择意愿及影响因素。研究表明,大学生倾向以自身生源地为界限对劳动市场的地域进行二元划分,职业发展机遇和家庭因素在就业地的选择中最为重要,地区特质和自然生态环境的影响最弱,生源地和个人观念都与就业地的选择显著相关。在此基础上提出引导大学生就业流动的政策建议。     

Climate change-induced migration and violent conflict

In a world of rising sea levels and melting glaciers, climate change is most likely occurring but with uncertain overall effects. I argue that we can predict the effects of climate change on migration by exploring the effects of environmental problems on migration in recent decades. People can adapt to these problems by staying in place and doing nothing, staying in place and mitigating the problems, or leaving the affected areas. The choice between these options will depend on the extent of problems and mitigation capabilities. People living in lesser developed countries may be more likely to leave affected areas, which may cause conflict in receiving areas. My findings support this theory, and suggest certain policy implications for climate change.     

THE IMPACT OF SKILL‐SPECIFIC MIGRATION ON REGIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT DISPARITIES IN GERMANY

Differences in regional unemployment are still pronounced in Germany, especially between eastern and western Germany. Although the skill level seems important for the relationship between regional disparities and labor migration, corresponding empirical evidence is scarce. Applying dynamic panel models, we investigate the impact of labor mobility differentiated by educational attainment of the workers on regional unemployment disparities between 2000 and 2008. The impact of low‐ and medium‐skilled migration is consistent with traditional neoclassical reasoning, suggesting that labor mobility reduces differences in regional unemployment rates. In contrast, the migration of high‐skilled workers tends to reinforce disparities.     

How to improve the quality of life in peripheral and lagging regions by policy measures? Examining the effects of two different policies in Germany

Peripheral regions commonly appear to be less attractive to live in and policymakers all over the world are applying various measures to make them more attractive. This paper analyzes the effects of two very different measures: The German municipal fiscal equalization scheme and the German structural funds for economically weak areas (GRW). It focusses on the impact on perceived quality of life, measured through interregional migration between German labor market regions. Using a spatial vector autoregressive panel model, we find evidence that equalization transfers have a significant positive impact on regional net migration and contribute to the aim of regional equity. These effects are especially found for regions with low endogenous fiscal capacities. GRW funding reveals no significant effects on net migration rates in total, but short-term effects in rural regions.