THE PROBLEM OF DEVELOPING RURAL SERVICES IN NOVGOROD OBLAST

Novgorod Oblast, in northwestern Russia, has been distinguished by a high rate of rural outmigration and depletion of agricultural labor resources. One key factor in slowing the flight from the land is an improvement in the quality and range of rural services. The impact of adequate services is shown by available data on the distribution of rural population by distance from service centers. The rate of decline of rural population is generally found to be lower in places near service centers than in more remote places. Since most of the rural places are too small to support service establishments, it is recommended that services be expanded in about 200 central places that show promise of future growth.     

DYNAMICS OF POPULATION IN THE UKRAINIAN SSR (1959-1984)

Analysis of change in the spatial distribution of population in the Ukrainian SSR demonstrates a pronounced shift toward the east and south, and toward the major metropolitan area of Kiev and Kiev Oblast. An upsurge in city growth in the least urbanized, western Ukraine, coupled with steady, above-average urban growth in other locations, has contributed to gradual erosion of the Donets-Dnieper Region's dominance in urban population. Accelerated rates of rural population decline in western areas of highest rural population concentration has promoted a gradual equalization of the distribution of rural population (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

THE USE OF ANALYTICAL METHODS OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS FOR IDENTIFYING RURAL PLACES WITH GROWTH PROSPECTS: (with particular reference to Kaliningrad Oblast)

One of the key objectives in the rural development program for the Nonchernozem Zone of the RSFSR is the consolidation of rural settlement in larger places. An example of the dispersed settlement pattern is Kaliningrad Oblast, which has a total of 1,527 rural places ranging from fewer than 5 to more than 2,000 inhabitants, with a total rural population of 195,529 (1970 census). The author shows that growth prospects are dependent on a combination of five factors—geographical setting and level of development; population; fixed assets in agriculture; nonfarm fixed assets; availability of services—and, using correlation analysis, identifies 283 places with prospects of future growth, ranging from 32 in the 51–100 size class to one of more than 2,000 population. The preservation of some small rural places is termed inevitable because many serve as outlying settlements for livestock subdivisions of collective and state farms, and dairy and beef cattle represents a characteristic type of farming in Kaliningrad Oblast.     

On the Mapping of the Settling Process

Existing types of maps are found inadequate for an analysis of the settling process in a particular territory over a given period. The author proposes a technique for the compilation of map diagrams in which squares drawn at the map scale and with their centers at the seats of minor civil divisions represent areas of “possible settlement.” The squares are computed according to the formula S = H × 0.34 km², where H is the total population of the particular minor civil division and 0.34 km² is the mean area per person in the major civil division (Irkutsk Oblast). A comparison of the areas of the squares for different years shows graphically the direction of the settling process and any regional differences in the process. Cartograms based on these map diagrams show changes in the structure of the density of settlement in the intervening period.     

URBAN‐TO‐RURAL POPULATION GROWTH LINKAGES: EVIDENCE FROM OECD TL3 REGIONS*

The objective of this paper is to understand, from an international comparative perspective, how population growth in rural regions is affected by the relationship with their nearby urban centers. By means of a cross‐sectional analysis on OECD small regions (Territorial Level 3), the paper distinguishes spread effects—positive spillovers arising from urban growth—from the net effect of distance to nonrural places. The results show that spread effects outweigh backwash effects, so that rural regions benefit from growth in urban places. A rural region's distance from urban and intermediate regions has a negative effect on its population growth rate. Nevertheless, both the strength of this effect and the growth spillovers decline with distance, and this occurs relatively faster in Europe. The results further suggest that proximity to large urban areas has a higher positive influence than proximity to intermediate areas, but only outside Europe.     

Regional Planning Problems in the Soviet Far East

A variety of approaches are being recommended in regional plans for future settlements patterns in the Soviet Far East. In Magadan Oblast, the present scattered pattern of small populated places is to be superseded by greater concentration of urban population in a set of subregional service centers. In Khabarovsk Kray, different approaches are being recommended for the future development of the Khabarovsk and Komsomol'sk areas. Because limitation of the future growth of Khabarovsk is desirable, new industrial establishments are to be located in the future in nearby small towns and urban settlements of the Khabarovsk industrial district. In the Komsomol'sk area, satellite towns are to be significantly developed, giving rise to a grouped form of urban settlement, including the tin-mining center of Solnechnyy and the paper and chemical center of Amursk. In Amur Oblast, consideration is being given to the development of an iron and steel plant in the Svobodnyy area, giving rise to a city of up to 200,000 population.     

A TECHNIQUE FOR CLASSIFYING URBAN PLACES IN TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT REQUISITES (with particular reference to Smolensk Oblast)

On the basis of a number of socio-economic and physical requisites, the prospects of future development are examined for all 28 urban places of Smolensk Oblast as of early 1973. The requisites are the economic-geographic (transport) situation, availability of water resources, labor resources, economic base, industrial terrain and housing. The urban places are assigned point scales combining these factors and are assigned to three categories (with very favorable, favorable and unfavorable prospects of development). The allocation of places to particular development classes is then tested statistically by association with two additional variables: population size and functional characteristics, and the corrections introduced by the procedure are analyzed. The prospects for further development are found to be most favorable for the six largest towns—Smolensk, Roslavl', Vyaz'ma, Safonovo, Yartsevo and Gagarin. (The study was completed before the founding in 1973–74 of two new urban places that are associated with major power stations under construction and are thus endowed with growth prospects: Desnogorsk, on the site of the Smolensk nuclear power station, and Ozernyy, on the site of the Smolensk peat-fired power station.)     

GEOGRAPHICAL STUDY OF THE FIXED ASSETS OF RURAL PLACES

The use of fixed assets data as a geographical research tool is illustrated with reference to a rural rayon [minor civil division] of Kaluga Oblast, southwest of Moscow. The value of fixed assets by places is correlated with population size, the position of places within the system of settlement of particular state farms or collective farms, and distance from towns. The share of productive assets (farm buildings and equipment) is found to reach a maximum in places with populations of 100 to 200. In larger places, the share of productive assets declines because of the higher value of housing and the presence of most service facilities. The share of productive assets also tends to be low in suburban places where a substantial portion of the population commutes to nearby towns.     

The Character of Demographic Processes and their Impact on City Growth in Moscow Oblast

The character of demographic processes (population growth, natural increase, migration, age-sex structure) is analyzed for cities of Moscow Oblast both by size classes and by their location in three concentric rings around Moscow. The demographic indicators tend to be particularly negative in cities of the outer zone of Moscow Oblast, mainly one-industry textile towns, in which the high female component of the labor force tends to create an unbalanced demographic situation. Positive demographic processes are most evident in middle-size cities (20,000 to 100,000) in the green belt and suburban zone around Moscow that arose or developed mainly during the Soviet period. They are largely associated with heavy industry and scientific research and development. The analysis suggests the need for greater development of outer-zone towns, which have been lagging in growth, and a need for avoiding the existence of one-industry towns, even as part of a cluster of places.     

PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL NONFARM PLACES IN THE USSR

According to the 1970 census, the Soviet Union had 37,800 rural nonfarm places with a combined population of 6.1 million, or 5.8 percent of the rural population. The census data are believed to understate the number and population of nonfarm places because they assigned rural places to the nonfarm category purely on the basis of their generic designation. Many multifunctional nonfarm places and rural places that serve as administrative centers and have little relation to agriculture were not categorized as nonfarm in the census. Although many of the smaller nonfarm places are likely to be eliminated over time, others will continue to perform clearly defined functions in industry, construction, transportation, and services. The situation is illustrated with particular reference to Novosibirsk Oblast.     

THE GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS FOR DIFFERENTIATING THE SIZE OF FARMS

On the theory that optimization of farm size may enhance agricultural productivity, the author uses a game—theoretic model to find a solution for optimal farm size among the collective farms of Irkutsk Oblast. A game matrix, in which the players are the environment, using the strategies of a series of physical zones of agricultural production, and society, using the strategies of alternative farm sizes, yields a combination of farm sizes that would enhance total farm production in Irkutsk Oblast by 5 percent. The author notes that even greater improvements might be achieved in bringing types of farming more into line with physical and economic conditions of particular regions.     

Settlement in Lumber-Industry Regions of the USSR

About 80% of the population in Soviet logging and rafting areas is non-urban and lives in 6000 lumbering settlements assigned to the rural category. The majority of these places are small, crude settlements without adequate services that exist for periods of about 20 years until the surrounding timber stands have been depleted. It is suggested that area planning and diversification of forest utilization can improve the settling pattern, working and living conditions and the provision of services through the concentration of population in larger, modern central settlements supplemented by mobile dormitory camps in timber-felling areas situated beyond an optimal commuting distance. Existing and proposed settling patterns are illustrated with particular reference to a logging area in the western Urals.     

Rural Settlement Trends in Moldavia

An analysis of changes in rural settlement in the Moldavian SSR for the period 1959–1968 finds a high degree of stability, with few places eliminated because of resettlement or consolidation, and few new places established. The total rural population continues to increase, despite a relative decline of the rural component in the entire population. Growth rates have been highest for large central settlements of state farms and collective farms, but outlying peripheral villages within farm territories have also been growing.     

The Problems of Adjusting to Slow Growth in the Niagara Region of Ontario

During the 1970s it became clear that earlier forecasts of population increase and urban expansion in the Niagara region were too great. There has been a steady decline in the national birth rate since the 1950s and a decline locally in the rate of net in-migration. Moreover, a worsening economic climate, increasing development costs, and greater planning restrictions have led to a decline in the rate of land conversion from rural to urban uses. These changing circumstances afford an opportunity to plan for more compact urban areas and thus protect the area's valuable agricultural land. However, attempts to achieve these ends have been constantly frustrated by a regional and local planning process which has been loath to recognize such a conservationist cause or the need to plan for slower growth. In this report I will review three issues: the changing trends in future urban growth in the Niagara region; the regional plan and the designation of future urban areas; and the problems that have contributed to conflict and delay in approving that plan.     

Metropolitan Housing Subsystems: A Comparative Review

Population, household, and housing data of twelve cities in industrialized countries are compared with respect to different rates of growth or decline in the inner and outer parts of the urban area. The study shows that in nearly all metropolitan areas the core declines in terms of population, but less in terms of households, and is stable or grows in terms of dwellings. This phenomenon can be characterized as a process of “spatial substitution” from core to periphery which is fast in terms of population, but slow in terms of dwellings because of the inherent inertia of the physical stock of the city. Following Batten (1985), a logistic substitution model is used to compare the speed and duration of spatial substitution in the urban areas studied. It is found that the process is similar in most urban areas, but that the cities have reached different points along its course. The conclusion is that the residential deconcentration observed in most urban areas in industrial countries is mainly a consequence of overall population growth or decline, decreasing household size, increasing per capita consumption of floor space, and lack of land in the core.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF URBAN PLACES IN THE KARA KUM

The development of mineral resources in the Kara Kum desert and irrigation projects along the Kara Kum Canal have fostered the growth of urban population in Turkmenia at a more rapid rate than rural population. In general, established cities in the republic tend to grow more slowly than some of the new workers' settlements established on the basis of gas extraction and other mineral developments. The urban places of Turkmenia are classified by size classes, functional types and growth rates.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

In Situ Urbanization in Rural China: Case Studies from Fujian Province

In most parts of the developing world, the urbanization process has been dominated by rural–urban migration and the growth of existing cities. However, case‐studies in China’s Fujian Province suggest that this process can also be achieved mainly by in situ transformation in rural areas. Such in situ transformation of rural areas has been driven mainly by two forces, the development of township and village enterprises (TVEs) and the inflow of foreign investment; and facilitated by the relevant policies adopted by the Chinese government since 1978. The former has been very effective in the transformation of rural employment structure, while the latter has brought many physical changes to the previously rural landscape. Being mutually complementary, these two ways of rural transformation have not only benefited and urbanized the rural areas, but kept many farmers in their hometowns, replacing the dominant role of rural–urban migration and the growth of existing cities in the urbanization process.     

Economic-Geographic Prediction Of The Process Of Economic Development Of An Area (with particular reference to Irkutsk Oblast)

The present stage of economic development of Irkutsk Oblast is evaluated with a view to predicting future trends. The present stage is evaluated in terms of the economic structure of three intra-oblast regions (using Kolosovskiy's technique of energy-and-production cycles) and in terms of historical development axes reflected in settlement field potentials (see the author's paper in Soviet Geography, September 1970). Future development of the oblast is expected to be based on fuel and energy, forest, and nonferrous metal resources. The development process is said to operate both “in depth” (intensification) and “in breadth” (opening up of new areas). Development in depth, involving additional settling of high-density areas, produces pollution problems and involves the need for allocating recreation zones. Future development “in breadth” is expected in the northwest, northeast and south of the oblast, particularly along the border of Krasnoyarsk Kray, where a revision of administrative-political boundaries seems to be required. A reorientation toward the east of the oblast's predominantly westward orientation is advocated.     

The Index of Economic Disparity: Measuring trends in economic disparity across Canadian Census Subdivisions and rural and urban communities

Territorial inequalities have long been a subject of study and concern in Canada. In the face of large structural changes such as industrial shifts and the decarbonization of our economies, there is an urgency to understand such inequalities and design effective policy interventions for those places facing persistent economic decline. This paper shares a novel composite index that measures economic disparity across Canadian Census Subdivisions (CSDs) using Census data from 2001 through 2016 and the 2011 National Household Survey. Named the “Index of Economic Disparity,” it is comprised of an equally weighted average of four sub-indices that assign percentile rankings for all CSDs based on whether they experience persistent and substantial decline in key economic areas: population, labour force outcomes, working-age share of population, and industrial diversity. The variation of outcomes across geographies—urban and rural—highlights the importance of place-based policies.