NATIONAL AND REGIONAL POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR, 1979–89: PRELIMINARY RESULTS FROM THE 1989 CENSUS

This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979–89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979–89 was roughly similar to that of 1970–79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970–79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence.     

RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE USSR

Pending the publication of new Soviet population data based on the 1979 census, to be hald next January, the author reviews population trends in the 1970's. After a steady decline through much of the Soviet period, birth rates and death rates have stabilized for the country as a whole, although marked regional differences continue. An unexplained rise in infant mortality and an apparent reduction of life expectancy have led to the suppression of data in these areas. No ready explanation is found for a recent increase in female fertility and age-specific death rates. Abnormalities in the age-sex structure, resulting from past population catastrophes, continue to persist and indicate future labor shortages. Geographical differences in population growth rates, resulting from differential rates of natural increase and migration, are analyzed. Urbanization, a typical phenomenon of the Soviet period, continues apace, with the biggest increases in large cities despite a policy designed to discourage big-city growth. A crucial question is the optimal disposition of the growing labor pool in the Central Asian region-whether to foster local employment or encourage migration from Central Asia to labor deficit areas elsewhere in the Soviet Union.     

SOVIET POPULATION CHANGE AND CITY GROWTH 1970-79: A PRELIMINARY REPORT

The total, urban and rural population of major civil divisions of the Soviet Union and the population of cities over 100,000 are analyzed and mapped on the basis of preliminary results of the 1979 census. Total population growth rates declined during the 1970–79 intercensal period compared with the 1959–70 period while urbanization continued apace, although unevenly on a regional basis. The Slavic and other western republics, which show the highest urbanization levels of 60 percent and more, were also characterized by the lowest overall growth rates of 6 to 8 percent. Rural population declined almost everywhere outside a southwestern belt of high growth extending from parts of the southern Ukraine through Transcaucasia to Central Asia. Among large cities, moderate growth continues among cities with a multifunctional economy; high rates are evident in cities with major current industrial projects (automotive, for example) and in oil production regions; low rates are typical of some coal-mining and steelmaking centers. (For another report on the 1979 census, see “News Notes,” Soviet Geography, September 1979.)     

ECONOMIC REGION NET MIGRATION PATTERNS IN THE USSR: 1979-89

This article investigates economic region net migration patterns in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period. Net in-migration and net migration rate increases (compared to 1970-79) occurred in both the western and eastern portions of the Northern USSR region, while net out-migration and rate declines occurred throughout the Southern USSR. Net in-migration again occurred to Siberia, especially Tyumen' Oblast, and there was a reduced rate of net out-migration from the Nonchernozem Zone and Central Chernozem Region of European RSFSR.     

THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF EAST SIBERIA AND PROBLEMS OF PREDICTION

A review of population trends in the USSR and in East Siberia suggests that net in-migration will become a negligible source of labor over the next 25 years until the year 2000 because past labor surpluses no longer exist in the western regions of the Soviet Union and because living conditions in the eastern regions are inferior to conditions in the west. East Siberia will therefore have to depend increasingly on the regional rate of natural increase. The region's population is expected to grow from 8 million in 1970 to 10–12 million by the year 2000. The slow predicted growth of population is not expected to become a constraint on the region's economic development because of rising labor productivity and a regional emphasis on energy-intensive and raw-material-oriented industries rather than labor-intensive activities.     

UNION REPUBLIC MIGRATION TRENDS IN THE USSR DURING THE 1980s

This article examines union republic migration trends in the USSR between 1979 and 1987 and prospects for indigenous out-migration from rural areas in Central Asia. The study is based on migration data derived by the residual technique and migration data from the 1985 microcensus. Results indicate that a south-to-north and probably Russian-dominated migration trend emerged in the 1980s, one which marks an almost complete reversal from earlier periods, especially 1959-70. Although Central Asia continues to have low levels of indigenous out-migration, labor surpluses and relatively waning capital investment in Central Asia may change this situation.     

ON THE INEQUALITY OF RURAL SERVICES PROVISION IN THE USSR

Results of studies of inter- and intra-regional variation of rural services provision (including retail trade, cultural-educational services, and health care) are compared. Highest levels of per capita services provision were found in the Baltic republics and RSFSR, with lower levels in the southern European USSR, Transcaucasia, and Central Asia. The differences are attributed to rural depopulation (northwestern USSR), rural development priorities in areas of severe natural conditions (Siberia), and high rates of natural population increase (Central Asia). A differential approach in services planning is recommended between areas located near oblast urban centers and those which are more remote (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

COMMUTING AS AN ELEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION MOBILITY

Commuting is defined as journeys to work or study that cross the administrative boundaries of minor civil divisions. This poses problems in the statistical analysis of some metropolitan areas, such as Baku, where large suburban territories are administratively under the jurisdiction of the central city government. Time series on commuting exist for trips from rural to urban areas, and help distinguish oblasts and major economic regions of varying levels of rural population mobility. This mobility is highest around large cities that exert a strong pull (Moscow, Leningrad, Kiev, Minsk, Khar'kov, L'vov). Rural population mobility is low in Siberia and Kazakhstan, which have a sparse network of industrial centers and low rural population density, and in Central Asia, where the indigenous population is distinguished by low social mobility. Census data for commuting in 1970 yield a typology of cities in terms of the character of commuting. Commuting distances and means of transportation are analyzed for different city size classes.     

INTERREGIONAL MIGRATION IN THE U.S.S.R., 1981–1985 AND 1971–1975

The publication in 1987 of a Soviet compendium of population statistics has made possible the calculation of net migration balances for the U.S.S.R.'s 20 large economic planning regions by the residual method for the first time since the middle of the 1970s. This paper compares the results for 1981–1985 and 1971–1975 and finds that Siberia has changed from a net loser to a net gainer of migrants, that the shift of population to the southern regions has been reversed, and that the traditional rural outflow from central-eastern European Russia has diminished. Nevertheless, the acclimatization of newcomers in the eastern regions, the stabilization of rural dwellers in the central regions, and the mobility of rural residents in Central Asia and the Transcaucasus all remain insufficient to overcome regional imbalances in labour.
La publication en 1987 d'un compendium Soviétique sur les statistiques de la population a rendu possible le calcul des balances migratoires pour les vingt grandes régions économiques de l'U.R.S.S. pour la premiere fois depuis le milieu des années 1970. Cet article compare les résultats de 1971–1975 et 1981–1985 et montre que la situation en Sibérie est passée d'une perte nette à un gain net de migrants, que le mouvement de la population vers les regions du Sud a été renversé, et que le traditionel exode rural observé dans les régions centrales et dans l'est de la Russie europeenne a diminue. Néanmoins l'adaptation des nouveaux arrivants dans les regions de l'est, la stabilite des ruraux dans les regions centrales, et leur mobilite en Asie Centrale et en Transcaucasie sont insuffisants pour surmonter les desequilibres regionaux en main-d'oeuvre.     

CHANGES IN THE METROPOLITAN AND LARGE CITY POPULATIONS OF THE USSR: 1979-85

This paper investigates the post-census growth of metropolitan areas and large cities in the USSR from 1979 to 1985. The Soviet population continues to be increasingly concentrated in large metropolitan areas and large cities, and although suburbanization occurs within metropolitan areas, a striking feature is that all central cities continue to grow and typically contain the vast majority of the metropolitan population. This reflects the fact that individual large cities continue to loom large, despite policies to limit their growth. Although the growth rates of large cities have slowed, so have those of smaller towns, and a merging of growth rates by size class is occurring.     

The Influence of Ethnic Factors on the Territorial Redistribution of Population

Although a number of non-Russian republics of the Soviet Union (Central Asia, Transcaucasia, Moldavia) are labor-surplus areas, ethnic factors operate against migration of these national groups not only to labor-deficit regions in the RSFSR but even to cities of the non-Russian republics. Instead, Russians make up most of the migrants to labor-deficit regions (European North, Siberia, Far East, Kazakhstan) and to the cities of non-Russian republics. A system of measures in proposed to correct the situation.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].     

A STRATEGY FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF SETTLEMENT BSf THE USSR; AIMS,PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS

A General Program of Settlement in the USSR, worked out by the Central Urban Planning Institute, envisages a long-term evolution of settlement that would help ameliorate the quality of life, insure industrial development of small and middle-size towns and help protect the environment. Two alternative strategies are envisaged: (1) an extrapolative strategy that projects long-term trends on the basis of past experiences and would enhance agglomerative processes in Soviet settlement; (2) a normative, goal-directed strategy that would seek to foster the evolution of planned and regulated systems of interconnected urban and rural places, and would gradually transform the present agglomerations along the lines of such normative systems. The prospective distribution of settlement under both strategies is mapped. Under the extrapolative strategy, the urban population share in areas with agglomerated forms of settlement would reach nearly 70 percent over the forecast period compared with 44 percent in 1970. The normative, goal-directed strategy would yield 60 large interconnected urban-rural systems, centered on the country's largest cities and accounting for 53 percent of the total population; 170 middle-size systems, centered on moderately large cities and including 26 percent of the population; and 325 small systems, centered on small and middle-size towns and including 14 percent of the population. About 7 percent of the population would remain outside the systemic structure.     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE SOVIET UNION

Analysis of spatial patterns of attained educational levels is helpful in understanding the cultural geography of an area, perhaps especially in the Soviet Union, with its many ethnic groups and stated aim of providing equality of education regardless of ethnicity or sex. The proportion of the population that had completed a higher education was mapped at oblast level from 1970 census data. High rates are found in certain urban areas, Estonia and Latvia, Georgia, and certain sparsely populated areas of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East. There are regional patterns of disparity between male and female rates of completed higher education and between rural and urban rates, despite Soviet attempts to reduce these inequalities. The distribution of Soviet higher educational institutions conforms generally to the distribution of population, although access to higher education opportunities appears to be geographically limited in some regions. (Maps by Joann L. Krupa, George Mason University.)     

PANEL ON THE SOVIET UNION IN THE YEAR 2000

A panel of geographers debates possible future developments in the Soviet Union in regional and environmental policy, water resource management, agriculture, industry, energy, population, urban growth and planning, transportation, and foreign trade. The present emphasis on modernization of existing plant capacity in cities of the western, more heavily settled regions of the USSR seems destined to continue, although it will be constrained by a growing shortage of industrial labor, declining terms of trade and resource oversupply in increasingly competitive export markets, and the continued resistance of Central Asian populations to urbanization and industrial employment.     

NEW APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CITIES OF MOSCOW OBLAST

Quantitative analysis of historical trends in city growth rates within Moscow Oblast (1926-1984) reveals two major components or city types: a group of cities with below-(oblast) average rates for each of five periods of analysis (1926-39, 1939-59, 1959-70, 1970-79, 1979-84) and a second category experiencing above-average growth until 1970, with subsequent reduction of rates below the oblast average. Further breakdown of the two major components reveals seven smaller groups, analysis of the spatial patterns of which can provide a basis for planning recommendations on the future development of the region (translated by H. L. Haslett, Birmingham, UK).     

REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE USSR

The theory and practice of drawing up and implementing regional plans, or “territorial plans,” as they are known in the Soviet Union, has been a matter of considerable debate in the Soviet literature, a debate that has been complicated by differences in terminology. The author discusses various Soviet definitions of “territorial planning” and points out disagreement concerning its nature and scope. The major forms of territorial planning as now practiced in the USSR are reviewed, and two forms in particular—regional economic planning and regional physical planning—are distinguished. It is concluded that territorial planning continues to have a somewhat uncertain status in the USSR, with inadequate official support, although the issue remains a matter of considerable interest to the leadership under the Gorbachev administration.     

REGIONAL PREFERENCES AND CONCEPTS OF SOVIET YOUTH

Data obtained from a questionnaire is used to analyze the regional preferences and views of [graduating secondary] school students from several Soviet cities and of several groups of Muscovites (including also university students, geographers, and the intelligentsia) about a set of 20 regions of the USSR. A basic similarity of the preferences of young Muscovites with the preferences of their contemporaries from other cities is revealed. The differences in regional preferences of students from various portions of the country were found to be stronger than the differences in regional preferences among various groups of the population within a single city (Translated by Jay K. Mitchell, PlanEcon, Inc., Washington, DC 20005).     

Problems in the Evolution of Urban Agglomerations

Large urban agglomerations, which have been viewed as undesirable by some authors, are described as legitimate and efficient forms of economic organization and settlement in a modern industrial society. A number of processes in the Soviet economy tend to foster the development of agglomerations; however, the trend toward agglomerations in the USSR is still at a very early stage compared, say, with the United States. If agglomerations are defined on the basis of a central city of 250,000 or more, the USSR had 75 agglomerations in 1970 compared with 240 standard metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. In contrast to the United States, where suburban development has outstripped central-city growth, three-fourths of the population of Soviet agglomerations is concentrated in central cities. In the author's view, control of the evolution of agglomerations should not be designed merely to curb big-city growth, but to foster the development of these urban clusters within the limitations of environmental constraints.     

Brokering a Buffer State: Afghan Neutrality and American Diplomacy, 1973–1979

This article argues that during the 1970s, the United States Department of State and other US officials sought to promote and maintain Afghan political neutrality as a means of Soviet containment in Central Asia. This piece follows the evolution of this diplomatic model through the 1970s, how it interacted with various Afghan regimes and ultimately became an impediment on the imagination of US officials in predicting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.