ON THE CONNECTION BETWEEN LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE ARAL SEA

Although both the Caspian and Aral Sea basins are affected by fluctuations in the general moisture conditions affecting the Northern Hemisphere, the two drainage basins react differently to identical moisture changes both over the long term and over the short term. Over the short term, a shift in wet periods has been observed between the European part of the USSR, which contains the Volga basin draining into the Caspian, and western Asia, which contains the Aral Sea drainage basin. Since there is a direct relationship between general moisture conditions and level changes, the short-term level fluctuations would be heterochronous (out of phase) in the two seas. Over the long term, the comparison is complicated by the fact that Caspian drainage derives mainly from snow meltwater in the Russian plain while Aral Sea drainage derives from a combination of snow and glacier meltwater. Glacier runoff tends to increase in dry, warm periods and to decrease in wet, cold periods of glacier growth, while snow is related directly to general moisture conditions.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE CASPIAN SHORELINE UNDER THE PRESENT INCREASE IN ITS LEVEL

The authors, questioning the implications for the Caspian of a conventional model of shoreline dynamics on a flat, sandy coast upon a rise in sea level, present the findings of field observations made along the Dagestan shore during the period (post-1977) of the recent rise of the Caspian Sea level. They argue that changes in coastal morphology have varied largely according to the steepness of the offshore slope and, in general, sharply accelerated erosion was observed only on more steeply sloping sections of coast and in areas previously protected by rock benches (translated by Jay K. Mitchell; PlanEcon, Inc.; Washington, DC 20005).     

Some Conclusions about the Geography of Cities and the Urban Population of the USSR based on the Results of the 1959 Census

The author acknowledges that climatic factors and man's activity are the principal causes of fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea. But he maintains that tectonic processes, such as crustal movements, play a significant part and gives evidence of correlations between geological processes and changes in the sea level.     

CHANGES IN THE LEVEL OF THE CASPIAN SEA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FORECASTING THEM

A second paper devoted to problems of predicting the future level of the Caspian Sea attempts, as did the first, to discount overly simplistic explanations for its nearly century-long decline and recent slight rise. Long-term climatic changes within the drainage basin of the Caspian and the resultant change in discharge of tributary rivers are proposed as the basic mechanism controlling sea level fluctuations and not, as argued in the popular press, tectonic movements, groundwater discharge variations, or the damming of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol. Various models for predicting future levels are compared, although no specific forecasts are made (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

Khazaria and the Caspian (Landscape and Ethnos,Part I)

The author combines the techniques of historical geography, archeology, and paleogeography to investigate the distribution of the Khazars, a people settled in the Volga delta from the sixth to tenth centuries. Data on Caspian Sea level changes, obtained in part from study of the Derbent wall, are correlated with known political events in the history of the Khazars. A history of settlement of the Volga delta is reconstructed.     

The Transformation of the Caspian Sea

The author reviews the problem of the level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea, particularly the steady drop since 1929. The drop in level is affecting many key sectors of the regional economy. Among several remedial schemes is a plan for diverting the rivers of northern European Russia to the Caspian, and a project for a localized regulation of the level of the Caspian Sea.     

The Problem of Transformation and Utilization of the Water Resources of the Volga River and the Caspian Sea

Abstract

The authors review expected water requirements within the Volga-Caspian basin for industry, agriculture, fisheries and municipal uses and plans for the diversion of the streams of northern European Russia to the south to support the level of the Caspian Sea. They suggest that the diversion of part of the flow of the northern streams and isolation of the natural evaporation basin of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol will be sufficient to maintain the Caspian Sea level at ?28 meters. Previous articles on the Caspian problem appeared in Soviet Geography, September 1961, January 1962, and June 1963.     

ON THE PROBLEM OF REGULATING THE REGIME OF THE CASPIAN SEA

In an effort to stabilize the declining level of the Caspian Sea, it has been proposed that evaporation from the water surface be reduced by decreasing the size of the sea through construction of a dam in the northern portion. Data on the geology and hydrology of the Caspian Sea bed suggest that the construction of a dam might have undesirable consequences not only for the northern fisheries basin but for the sea as a whole. The findings are based on the presence of salt domes on the bottom of the northern Caspian Sea. An influx of highly mineralized subsurface waters along faults associated with the salt domes as well as leaching of salt from the structures themselves may threaten to raise the salinity of the northern fisheries basin to intolerable magnitudes. The presence of a man-made dam, in the author's view, would also interfere with the natural circulation of water, threatening contamination of deeper layers of the Caspian Sea with hydrogen sulfide, as has happened in the case of the Black Sea. [For a discussion of the Caspian Sea problem, see Soviet Geography, November 1972.]     

On the Question of Regulating the Level of the Caspian Sea

The author tries to show that the level of the Caspian Sea could be stabilized at relatively low cost at its present low level without further damage to the coastal economy. He denies the need for costly projects designed to increase the inflow into the Caspian or to separate the shallow northern section from the main body of the sea. He maintains that water gained by diverting the northern streams into the Volga basin should be used to irrigate the arid Southeast rather than to replenish the water supply of the Caspian Sea.     

THE MORPHOMETRY OF THE CASPIAN SEA BASED ON CONTEMPORARY DATA

Differences in available data on the area of the Caspian Sea are analyzed, and an effort is made to explain them. The differences are particularly pronounced in the shallower northern portion of the sea, where the drop of the sea level over the years has produced more significant changes in shoreline configuration. Greater use of space imagery is urged in determining changes in shoreline configuration, and the setting of “geographical standards” is proposed to avoid continuing confusion in published data. The technical problem of calculating the physical water area, including surface roughness produced by wave motion, is discussed.     

A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE ADVISABILITY OF PARTITIONING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SHOALS OF THE CASPIAN SEA

On the basis of new calculations of the loss of water through evaporation from the temporarily flooded litteral zone of the northeast Caspian and the possible savings in the water budget that might be achieved by partitioning off the northeast shoals, the authors conclude that little would be gained by any project designed to reduce the water area of the northern Caspian.     

THE MECHANISM OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE VOLGA DELTA AND ITS GROWTH PROSPECTS

The delta of the Volga River on the Caspian Sea is a highly dynamic form, whose growth has been affected by a combination of physical and human factors. Rapid delta growth in recent years has resulted in a deterioration of both physical and economic conditions (navigation problems, inadequate moisture supply, overgrowing of shallows with vegetation, loss of spawning grounds). Regression analysis yields a number of relationships between the inflow of water and suspended sediments, on the one hand, and delta growth, on the other hand, with a distinction between periods of a lowering of the Caspian Sea level and relative stability. The regression equations are used to project the likely future evolution of the delta. The only combination of conditions that is likely to limit further delta growth by the year 2000 is the stability of the Caspian Sea level and a period of average moisture supply. In all other cases, the delta is likely to continue its undesirable advance.     

The Ob' will enter the Caspian: the Yenisey-Ob'-Aral-Caspian Water Connection and the Energy Problem

An early 1949 version of Davydov's grandiose scheme for diverting water from the Yenisey and Ob' Rivers to Kazakhstan and Central Asia via the Turgay Gates and the Aral and Caspian Seas in order to stabilize the level of the Caspian, expand the irrigated acreage of Kazakhstan and Central Asia, generate abundant hydro-electric power, provide a cheap water transport route between Siberia and Central Asia, eliminate sukhovei (dry winds) at their source, and ameliorate the continental climate of Western Siberia, Kazakhstan, and Central Asia. The plan reflects the anthropocentric “transformation of nature” and the large-scale “great projects of communism” drives of the late Stalinist period. The translation was prepared by James R. Gibson of York University, Toronto.     

The Mazandarani Dialect of Kalijān Rostāq

Located in the Caspian forest south of the capital city of Sāri in Mazandaran, the rural district of Kalijān Rostāq is home to a number of close-knit villages which share a local Mazandarani dialect. The vernacular offers some authentic features in phonology, morphology, and lexis that are otherwise lost in the urban variety spoken in Sāri due to contact with Persian. In an attempt to elucidate on the loosely-known aspects of the Mazandarani language, this study offers a sketch grammar of the dialect of Kalijān Rostāq with a view to typological features. The glossary that follows includes many Caspian cultural items that are already moribund in the language.     

Structural Geomorphology Investigations in the Northern Ustyurt in Connection with Oil and Gas Prospecting

Structural-geomorphic techniques are tested in the northern part of the Ustyurt plateau (Lat. 46°N Long. 56°E) between the Caspian Sea and the Aral Sea in an attempt to identify local uplifts that may be potentially oil or gas bearing. The techniques include a structural-geomorphic photo interpretation, morphometric analysis of topographic maps and field mapping. Specific relationships between structure and surface relief are established in the three basic regions of the study area: the plateau, the escarpment zone and the foreland plain. In the plateau, surface relief generally directly reflects buried structures. In the plain, crustal movements are evident in the impact of abrasion and deposition processes that took place during transgressions of the nearby Caspian Sea. In the escarpment zone, both direct and inverse relationships are established between scarp promontories and embayments, on the one hand, and the plateau structure, on the other hand. Aside from some local uplifts, the investigation also reveals patterns of local and regional fault lines that often are arranged perpendicular to one another.     

THE CAUSES OF WATERLEVEL CHANGES OF THE ARAL SEA IN THE HOLOCENE

A specialist in loess geomorphology and arid-zone hydrology distinguishes three categories of factors accounting for waterlevel changes in the Aral Sea. She judges the most significant to be changes in inflow resulting from changes in the course of the Amudarya, the more important of the two tributary streams. The Amudarya at various times emptied into the Sarykamysh depression, southwest of the Aral Sea, giving rise to a flow of water through the now dry Uzboy channel to the Caspian Sea. Climatic change, involving alternations of wet and dry cycles, is said to have accounted for only minor water level fluctuations, of the order of 4 to 6 m, against the background of the major fluctuations produced by the Amudarya course migrations. Human activity, notably irrigation, is regarded as having become significant only in modern times as a result of an expansion of irrigation works. The present abrupt decline in the Aral waterlevel (6 m from 1960 to 1977, including 2 m in the last three years) is attributed to the combination of a dry climatic cycle and greatly increased use of water for irrigation.     

Soviet Geographic Science and Problems of the Transformation of Nature

The author discusses the contribution that Soviet geography can make in solving broad problems of transformation of the natural environment. He cites as examples the Caspian problem, the problem of the surplus moisture of the West Siberian plain, the problem of Central Asian irrigation, the problem of snow-cover control, and the problem of altering the over-all water balance of a given area for the benefit of man.     

土尔扈特蒙古西迁后的经济状况及其对东归的影响

土尔扈特蒙古西迁至伏尔加河流域后,其经济状况可以概括为:传统游牧经济由盛而衰;以互通有无为基础的对俄贸易往来不断;为俄国军事战役出兵助战获得战利品和报酬成为特殊的收入来源;突袭其他民族和控制贸易路线是增加财富的渠道之一;捕鱼成为相当一部分生活贫困的土尔扈特人赖以维持生计的重要方式。作者认为经济状况恶化是促使土尔扈特蒙古东归的原因之一。     

Regionalism, Iran and Central Asia

A combination of revolutionary ideology, trouble with neighbours and location in the Middle East, where regionalism is moribund, make the Islamic Republic of Iran an unlikely enthusiast for regional coalition-building. The impetus towards regionalism derives first and foremost from geopolitical considerations–the need to counter the US government's efforts to isolate Iran–but also from domestic dynamics; the regionalist discourse has lent an acceptable ideological colouring to an increasingly pragmatic foreign policy.
Iran's neighbours, however, share neither its geopolitical predicament nor its ideological complexion, and the actual implementation of Tehran's regionalist agenda has been based on functional cooperation, rather than on geopolitics and ideology. Trade promotion and the development of transport infrastructure to link Central Asia and the Caspian to Turkey and the Persian Gulf have been the most appealing areas for northern neighbours, and dominate the agenda of the Economic Cooperation Organization, Iran's main vehicle for multilateral cooperaton with Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Tehran's 1992 proposal for a Caspian Sea Cooperation Organization has so far been stymied by the littoral states' well-publicized disagreements over the sea's legal status, though their numerous multilateral meetings and handful of agreements suggest that the idea has potential in the medium–term.
Notwithstanding the meagre tangible results to date, Iran's tilt towards regionalism has had a positive impact. It has helped to rehabilitate the Islamic Republic in the eyes of its neighbours, contributed to the evolution of policy debate at home and prepared the ground for future multilateral cooperation.     

PRINCIPAL TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE USE OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE USSR

The increasing demand on water in the Soviet Union and the problem of assuring water quality require the construction of long-term water-management balances by drainage basins. These balances, based on predicted demand and water availability, would suggest the need for water-management projects within basins and interbasin transfers. Water needs would be evaluated both in terms of water requirements by categories of users and in terms of water quality. The most crucial regional problems involve the increasing shortage of water in Central Asia (with the prospect of interbasin transfer from Siberia) and in southern regions of the European USSR (with the problem of diverting water southward from the northern runoff slope). The Caspian Sea is expected to require a supplementary inflow of 80 to 100 cubic kilometers a year by the end of the century if the decline of its waterlevel is to be arrested. But southward diversion of northern waters is not expected to add more than 50 to 70 km³ at best, with a possible saving of an additional 10 to 20 km³ through decline of evaporation from a reduced Caspian Sea surface. The preservation of conditions in the Sea of Azov, the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash pose additional water problems. [The senior author died in October, 1974].