Designs for Detecting Spatial Dependence

The aim of this article is to find optimal or nearly optimal designs for experiments to detect spatial dependence that might be in the data. The questions to be answered are: how to optimally select predictor values to detect the spatial structure (if it is existent) and how to avoid to spuriously detect spatial dependence if there is no such structure. The starting point of this analysis involves two different linear regression models: (1) an ordinary linear regression model with i.i.d. error terms—the nonspatial case and (2) a regression model with a spatially autocorrelated error term, a so-called simultaneous spatial autoregressive error model. The procedure can be divided into two main parts: The first is use of an exchange algorithm to find the optimal design for the respective data collection process; for its evaluation an artificial data set was generated and used. The second is estimation of the parameters of the regression model and calculation of Moran's I , which is used as an indicator for spatial dependence in the data set. The method is illustrated by applying it to a well-known case study in spatial analysis.     

Positioning European Spatial Planning

The European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) is being described as 'inter-governmental'. The original initiative was for a Community spatial strategy for the delivery of the Structural Funds. Coming from France, it met with opposition. So it was that the successive six-monthly Presidencies of the EU took turns in managing the process. In truth, however, without Commission support the ESDP would not have come about. Now that the ESDP is on the books, the Commission is claiming a leadership role. Taking a position on this, one needs to view spatial planning against the backdrop of general thinking about European integration. Positions in the literature are often presented as polar opposites, like that of 'neo-functionalists' putting faith in integration on the one hand and that of 'realists' emphasizing the continuing dominance of nation states on the other hand. However, a growing body of literature is not about these 'grand theories', but about the actual workings of European institutions. It takes a middle ground and invokes concepts which planning writers are accustomed to, like networks, discourses and governance. From this literature it appears that mutual learning, a feature also of the ESDP process, is common in European integration. European spatial planning must be seen as part and parcel of an emergent system of European multi-level governance. In it, power is exerted at multiple levels of government. Denying the Community a spatial planning role is not realistic, therefore.     

基于旅游线路的区域旅游流网络结构特征研究

随着中国-东盟自由贸易区的快速发展,泛北部湾区域旅游业合作也日益加快。社会网络分析以其独特的理念,弥补了传统旅游研究的个体主义视角,本文利用社会网络分析法,通过搜集相关数据资料,基于旅游线路视角对泛北部湾区域的旅游流网络空间结构进行分析,深入探究泛北部湾区域旅游空间网络结构特征,并在此基础上就推进泛北部湾区域旅游业合作发展提出了相应建议。     

A Spatial Mixture Model of Innovation Diffusion

The diffusion of new product or technical innovation over space is here modeled as an event‐based process in which the likelihood of the next adopter being in region r is influenced by two factors: (i) the potential interactions of individuals in r with current adopters in neighboring regions, and (ii) all other attributes of individuals in r that may influence their adoption propensity. The first factor is characterized by a logit model reflecting the likelihood of adoption due to spatial contacts with previous adopters, and the second by a logit model reflecting the likelihood of adoption due to other intrinsic effects. The resulting spatial diffusion process is then assumed to be driven by a probabilistic mixture of the two. A number of formal properties of this model are analyzed, including its asymptotic behavior. But the main analytical focus is on statistical estimation of parameters. Here it is shown that standard maximum‐likelihood estimates require large sample sizes to achieve reasonable results. Two estimation approaches are developed which yield more sensible results for small sample sizes. These results are applied to a small data set involving the adoption of a new Internet grocery‐shopping service by consumers in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.     

空间联系视角的沈阳市多中心城市结构研究

以沈阳市为研究案例,借鉴国际著名团队POLYNET的研究经验并加以改良,进行了空间联系视角的多中心城市结构的实证分析。分别从人口密度分布、就业-居住空间联系网络与企业空间组织网络三个维度来识别沈阳市的人口中心、就业中心与产业中心,综合分析这些"中心"得出四点结论:①城市核心区就业与居住中心构成十字交叉的内循环结构;②浑南新区次中心特征颇具雏形;③外围人口中心、就业中心与产业中心错位发展;④沈阳市呈现不均衡的多中心结构特征。     

传统农区城乡体系空间结构演变及其形成机制研究——以河南省周口市为例

以传统农区周口市为研究对象，利用聚落斑块面积和相关社会经济指标，探讨了周口市城乡体系空间结构演变规律与作用机制。研究发现，周口市城乡体系空间结构演变呈现低端均衡结构（1973年）-点轴结构（1990年）-中心外围结构（2000年）-圈层结构（2015年）的演进过程，每种结构对城乡要素流动的方向和作用各不相同，从而使城乡体系的空间结构各不相同。交通导向机制是影响城乡体系空间结构演变的早期主导因素，促进城镇体系空间结构不断拓展，并带动乡村体系空间结构不断更迭；特色产业是影响城乡体系空间结构的新机制，助推城乡体系空间结构进一步完善；政府作用机制有效地引导城乡体系空间拓展方向，推动城乡空间格局结构性地演变。     

The Spatial Search Problem: Structure and Complexity

The paper discusses structure and complexity of the spatial search problem. From a set of assumptions it derives a rather general version of the spatial search problem and investigates some of its fundamental properties. Most importantly, the paper shows that the decision problem corresponding to the spatial search problem in this general version is NP-complete.     

双核结构模式与淮安区域发展

对于一个理论模式,仅仅限于现象发现及机理分析是远远不够的,将之运用于区域空间结构的实证分析中并能为其未来空间结构演化提供科学决策依据,才是理论模式提出的根本目的。江苏省由于位于沿海和沿江的交汇地带,故成为双核结构模式用于指导城市空间结构演化的最为理想的区域。本文通过对淮安市行政区划调整前后双核结构模式不同运用效果的分析,对未来该市组成淮安-连云港双核结构模式的必要性与可能性进行了深入探讨。     

长春市居住与工业空间演进的耦合性测度及影响因素

以长春市为研究对象,基于用地现状图等数据,借助ArcGIS软件,采用斑块聚合指数、标准差椭圆、核密度估计等研究方法,对1995-2013年长春市居住与工业空间演进的耦合性进行了测度,发现： ①长春市居住、工业与城市用地分布的“离散化”趋势明显,其中居住用地的斑块聚合指数波动幅度较大;②从居住与工业用地“中心-外围”分布特征来看,三环以内居住与工业用地呈现明显的“逆协同”演变规律,二者的用地密度变化表现出明显的差异性;③从居住与工业用地格局演进来看,二者布局的耦合度呈下降趋势。从成长路径依赖、政府调控引导、市场经济驱动、科技创新带动、空间主体的决策等六个方面分析了影响居住与工业空间演进耦合性的影响因素。     

制度变迁与中国城市的发展及空间结构的历史演变

我国的城市发展水平同经济发展水平的偏离,说明对城市发展及其空间结构演变分析不能仅局限在物质经济领域,需要我们寻求影响城市发展及其空间结构变化的新因素一制度因素,把制度作为影响城市发展及其空间结构的一个主要的变量,来对此加以解释。为此,本首先构建了“制度变迁一城市发展变化”的理论框架,然后用该理论从宏观和微观两个方面来检验1949-1998年间制度变迁对城市发展及其空间结构的影响。与西方国家的以市场经济为主要动力驱动型的城市发展模式不同,中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变在很大程度上是制度变迁而诱致的结果。但不同的制度对城市数量增长、组织体系及空间布局和对城市空间结构演变的作用力度又不尽相同。改革开放后,由于制度变迁带来的激励作用,中国城市获得了快速发展,城市空间结构快速变化。但与此同时,中国城市化的发展水平与相同发展条件下的世界城市化水平的差距却在拉大。而且随着市场经济体制的逐步完善,影响城市增长及空间结构的演变力量的因素越来越趋于分散化,制度变迁对城市发展所带来的激励作用正在弱化。为适应新世纪我国城市发展的战略目标,需要进行体制创新,为中国城市的发展及其空间结构的演变提供新的制度支持。     

Cellular Automata for Studying Historical Spatial Process of Traditional Settlements Based on Gaussian Mixture Model: A Case Study of Qiaoxiang Village in Southern China

ABSTRACT

The spatial evolution of traditional rural settlements is a natural process that occurs without professional development planning. With rural spatial organization now being stimulated by China’s economic structure adjustment, making top-down plans match bottom-up spatial principles is important for the continuity of rural communities. In this research, a Cellular automaton based model was introduced to describe the historical spatial rules of rural settlements based on a traditional village in Southern China. In order to reproduce the rural spatial characteristics and laws that were close to the actual situation truthfully and distinctly, in this model, we refined the growth process into three cyclical steps, and used a Multivariate Gaussian Mixture Model for the evaluation of spatial transition potential. Through historical simulation, evaluation of the current status, and future spatial predictions, results showed that: (1) the growth during the whole spatial process maintained logical consistency for optimal selection; (2) certain houses in the southeast region should be carefully protected as a core living culture exhibit, while the best utilization of other homes should be considered; and (3) the most probable region of growth for tourist services or new housing estates is scattered along the river in the central area of the village.     

Towards a European spatial planning policy: Theoretical dilemmas and institutional implications

This article examines the emergence, the present configuration and the perspectives of a spatial planning policy at a European level in the light of the institutional and economic properties embodied in the nature of the European integration process. First, it recapitulates the main historical steps through which the idea of a European view about spatial questions has been developed as a combined result of cohesion and solidarity objectives and liberal market constraints. On the basis of these complementary and competitive principles, the article explores the conceptual identity of the emerging policy and discusses especially the reorientations of the spatial justice concept under a market integration paradigm. Finally, it presents the fundamental traits for the institutional design of the new policy, which lead to the reshaping of the traditional hierarchical, substantialist and normative profile of welfare spatial intervention towards an horizontal, procedural and pluralist model of collective spatial coordination. The article comes to the conclusion that the conceptual and institutional innovations to which the emergence of a European spatial planning policy is submitted constitute a part of a more general rearrangement in the legitimation basis of public policies in a post‐national and post‐welfare Europe. Recognition of these transformations could be seen both as a search for new forms of governance beyond the state and as a chance for rethinking traditional concepts of social theory in a time of change.     

基于顶点城市的三角洲双核型空间结构形成演化研究

三角洲顶点城市是基于城市区位和三角洲自然环境演变特征而提出的经济地理概念,此类城市的存在具有一定的广泛性。在多个三角洲,此类城市与门户港城之间由多种运输方式连接,形成了三角洲顶点城市-门户城市这样一种新型的双核型空间结构空间组合类型,并且,该双核结构沿线经济要素密集,是三角洲区域经济发展的首要轴线。基于对我国多个三角洲的实证分析,提出了此类双核型空间结构的广泛存在性,认为其形成伴随着海岸线变迁等三角洲自然环境要素的演化,并且,在这一双核型空间结构形成演化进程中,部分三角洲顶点城市经历了区域功能和地位的转化,现代开放经济条件下,作为三角洲门户的港口城市往往在短时间内超越了顶点城市。在此基础上,本文探索了三角洲双核型空间结构的形成机理,对其形成演化的进程进行了归纳总结。     

关中天水经济区核心—边缘旅游空间结构解析

核心—边缘结构是区域旅游空间结构演化的重要解释模型,本文从复杂系统理论和分形理论切入重新解构旅游空间结构演变特征、动态过程和测度方法。以关天经济区为例实证分析并得出结论:核心—边缘旅游空间结构具有层次性、涌现性和分形的特征,演变过程分为核心集聚极化、边缘扩散溢出和空间动态平衡三个阶段;首位度、分形等方法能很好揭示旅游空间结构演化过程;关天经济区旅游空间属于典型的核心—边缘结构,目前处于核心集聚极化阶段后期,溢出效应逐步显现,次级核心基本形成,空间结构与等级结构紧密耦合,发展态势良好。     

中国城市人口集聚分布——基于空间效应的研究

城市人口集聚分布以及城市带的形成是一个空间现象,空间力量对其形成和演化具有重要影响。本文应用空间计量经济学与趋势面分析相结合方法,以617个县级以上城市1998年和2011年的城镇人口和经纬度坐标数据来研究中国城市人口空间集聚分布与趋势。研究发现,中国城市人口分布与其周围相邻城市的人口分布关系密切,并且其6阶空间自相关效应是最强的;同时地理位置对中国城市人口体系的空间分布和纵向形态形成具有显著影响。在空间自相关和空间位置相关的共同作用下,城市人口规模聚集区已在东部沿海地区形成。     

经济学视野下的中国城市空间扩展

城市空间扩展是城市经济学和城市地理学研究领域的重要课题。改革开放之后,随着经济的快速发展和城市化进程的推进,中国城市的空间范围也迅速扩展。近年来关于中国城市空间对外扩展的研究成果日益增多,但现有的实证分析和理论模型,并没有揭示中国城市空间快速扩展的独特因素及其根本动力,特别是忽略了地方政府在其中发挥的关键性作用。本文以城市经济学相关理论模型为基础,结合中国体制背景,构建一个以地方政府为核心的城市经济模型,并运用该模型对中国城市空间扩展及其相关问题进行分析,认为地方政府在中国农地非农化及其土地开发中发挥决定性的作用,现实农业土地租金较低推动了城市空间的额外扩展,外部性收益使得地方政府零地价出让土地仍然有利可图,诸如铁路及其站点建设等外部条件冲击推动城市以蛙跳(飞地)方式对外扩展。     

矿业城市生命周期与空间结构演进规律研究

在对矿业经济和城市发展生命周期判定的基础上,选取石油城市大庆、有色金属城市金昌、煤炭城市大同等典型矿业城市作为研究样本,梳理矿业城市发展生命周期,重点研究矿业城市空间结构有序化演进的一般规律。文章认为矿业城市经历"矿业经济-新型制造业-综合性"的完整发展过程,城市空间结构对应整体演进过程也呈现出"矿业经济的点状离散-新型制造业的分区极化-综合性城市的多组团圈层"的阶段性特征。在矿业经济时期内部又呈现"导入期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期/转型期",且对应不同阶段在城市人口、职能、经济结构等方面均呈现不同的特点。矿业城市空间演进整体上体现出"矿业经济是空间发展的初期主导,空间结构随城市职能的升级而演变,空间作用呈现集聚与分散的交替"的有序化发展规律。     

THE GRAVITY MODEL AND HIERARCHICAL SPATIAL SYSTEMS: THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL OBSERVATIONS

The gravity model in its basic forms postulates that the volume of interaction between two places will be positively related to the populations (masses) of the two places and inversely related to their distance apart. Although it is not strictly speaking a hierarchical model, it is often used to explain flows among places that constitute a hierarchical spatial system. This paper is specifically concerned with the effect of hierarchical spatial structure on the performance of the gravity model. Accordingly, I will examine first the effect of hierarchical structure on the volume of interaction between places and second the degree to which the gravity model incorporates these hierarchical effects. Third, suggestions will be made for the improvement of the gravity model's performance by an explicit incorporation of a hierarchical element. The performance of the gravity model will be examined for both one-way and two-way flows between places.     

南京市社区服务设施可达性的空间格局与低收入社区空间剥夺研究

社区服务设施的空间可达性事关城市公共资源分配的社会公平与公正,是反映城市居民生活质量的重要标志。以南京市居住用地作为基本分析单元,对南京市的教育、医疗、商业和公园绿地四大类社区服务设施的空间可达性进行分析;并通过对相关低收入社区的实地调研,研究城市边缘区低收入群体的服务设施空间剥夺问题。研究表明：南京市四类服务设施的可达性水平均呈现出由城市中心区向郊区衰减的空间分异格局;较低的社区服务设施可达性不仅直接造成低收入社区居民对社区服务设施较低的满意度,导致其空间剥夺感的产生,还极大地阻碍着社区归属感的形成,导致社区居民强烈的迁居欲望,在他们较低的支付能力下进一步加剧其空间剥夺感。政府未来在规划面向低收入群体的保障性社区时,更应注重相关服务配套设施建设,做到社会与空间的公正性。     

长江中游城市群空间结构的经济绩效影响研究

近年来,城市群成为我国新型城镇化的空间主体,研究城市群空间结构具有重要意义。但现有文献大多从人口维度对城市群空间结构进行分析,缺乏多维视角,其结论的参考价值有限。本文以长江中游城市群为研究对象,运用2006-2015年长江中游城市群内部三大城市群的面板数据,通过位序规模法则以及空间基尼系数,从人口与产业两方面对城市群空间结构进行测度,并进一步研究了城市群空间结构对其经济绩效的影响。结果表明,在控制了其他影响因素之后,人口呈多中心分布,产业呈单中心分布对长江中游城市群的经济绩效有显著的促进作用;资本投入、基础设施建设、政府干预、产业结构和人口规模均是影响长江中游城市群经济绩效的关键因素。未来长江中游城市群可运用人口引导产业流动,以推进多中心的发展进程。