An elasticity analysis of the effectiveness of pronatalist measures in Taiwan

The total fertility rate (TFR) of Taiwan has remained below the replacement level 2.1 for past thirty years. Currently, 16 of its 22 counties and cities have TFRs below 1.3, with TFRs in middle and southern Taiwan even below 1. In the recent decade, various pronatalist policies have been adopted in Taiwan to cope with the low fertility issue. However, little is known about the effectiveness of these policies. In order to identify the group(s) of women that should be targeted to increase the TFR effectively, we have constructed a stochastic model to perform an elasticity analysis. The results show that changes in marriage rates among women aged 25–29 years would have the largest impact on the TFR, with an elasticity value of 0.32. This means that every 1 per cent increase in the marriage rate of women aged 25–29 may increase the TFR by about 0.32 per cent (i.e. an increase of about 2.6 children per 1000 women). The TFR is also very sensitive in responding to changes in the marriage rate and parity-1 fertility rate of 30–34-year-old women, with elasticities of 0.19 and 0.16 respectively. The divorce rate has a small but negative impact on the TFR. Also, the possible contribution of third- and higher-order births is insignificant. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the marriage rate among women in their late twenties and early thirties, and supporting first births of women in their early thirties, are likely to raise Taiwan’s fertility rate effectively.     

俄罗斯华侨历史概述

从19世纪中期开始, 华侨问题就引起了俄罗斯政府和学者的注意。俄罗斯华侨见证并参与了远东地区的开发和十月革命, 而后又经历了国内战争、新经济政策、工业化、农业集体化、卫国战争等剧烈的社会动荡和变革。无数华侨为苏维埃政权的诞生、苏联社会主义建设以及抗击德国法西斯入侵奉献了自己的力量和生命。与此同时, 复杂多变的俄(苏) 中两国关系以及远东地区政治和军事局势对俄罗斯华侨的命运产生了种种不利影响。本文分1917年二月革命和十月革命之前、革命和国内战争期间以及苏联时期三个时期, 对19 世纪中期至20 世纪中期的俄罗斯华侨历史进行考察,以加强两国学者对俄罗斯华侨问题的了解和交流。     

革命美术的光辉典范——太行木刻选介

在建党八十周年的时候,我们把当年太行革命根据地美术工作者创作的木刻作品介绍给大家。这既是老一辈木刻家留给后代的一份珍贵艺术遗产,也是今天进行爱国主义教育和革命传统教育的形象化生动教材。 太行革命根据地,在抗日战争时期是中国共产党领导的敌后抗日游击战争的战略要地之一,根据地军民保家卫国,抗击日寇,英勇杀敌,用血肉筑起敌后抗战的铁壁铜墙,为抗日民族革命战争的胜利付出了巨大的牺牲。解放战争时期,太行解放区的军民又以空前高涨的革命积极性,投身争取民主自由、光明进步的人民革命战争,为全国解放作出了卓越的贡…     

Teaching revolutionary archaeology: African experiments in history making and heritage management

Este ensayo se enfoca en la experiencia de estudiantes africanos intentando estudiar y lograr administrar herencia en Tanzania y eritrea. El autor ilustra la necesidad de métodos prácticos que enfatizan hacer decisiones independientes y el crecimiento de la auto-confianza personal en los contextos del desarrollo rápido y disturbios políticos. Estas perspectivas de ense?anza ofrecen una respuesta positiva de los estudiantes que ven oportunidades para realizar la arqueología de su propia herencia desde su propio punto de vista.

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Résumé Ce papier se concentre sur l'expérience d'étudiants africains qui ont étudié et tenté de mettre en oeuvre la gestion du patrimoine en Tanzanie et en Erythrée. L'auteur illustre la nécessité d'avoir des approches pratiques qui favorisent la prise de décisions indépendante et l'augmentation de la confiance personnelle, dans le cadre professionnel, dans des contextes de développements rapides et de changements politiques brusques. Cette perspective pédagogique induit une réponse positive des étudiants qui voient des opportunités de faire l'archéologie de leur propre patrimoine selon leurs propres points de vue.