A History of the Future

Does history have to be only about the past? “History” refers to both a subject matter and a thought process. That thought process involves raising questions, marshalling evidence, discerning patterns in the evidence, writing narratives, and critiquing the narratives written by others. Whatever subject matter they study, all historians employ the thought process of historical thinking. What if historians were to extend the process of historical thinking into the subject matter domain of the future? Historians would breach one of our profession’s most rigid disciplinary barriers. Very few historians venture predictions about the future, and those who do are viewed with skepticism by the profession at large. On methodological grounds, most historians reject as either impractical, quixotic, hubristic, or dangerous any effort to examine the past as a way to make predictions about the future. However, where at one time thinking about the future did mean making a scientifically–based prediction, futurists today are just as likely to think in terms of scenarios. Where a prediction is a definitive statement about what will be, scenarios are heuristic narratives that explore alternative plausibilities of what might be. Scenario writers, like historians, understand that surprise, contingency, and deviations from the trend line are the rule, not the exception; among scenario writers, context matters. The thought process of the scenario method shares many features with historical thinking. With only minimal intellectual adjustment, then, most professionally trained historians possess the necessary skills to write methodologically rigorous “histories of the future.”     

当代中国史研究与口述史学

当代中国史是历史学家族中最年轻的一门学科,也是目前最有活力、发展最快的研究领域之一。口述史学的出现适应了时代的需要,也顺应了国史变革的方向。寻求二者的最佳结合途径能使二者相得益彰,“合之则两美,离之则两伤”。当代中国史研究需要通过开展口述史来拓展研究视野,活跃研究思路,并弥补与修正史料之不足,以最大程度地发挥其面向社会公共教育和启迪的功能。     

Tibetan Woman Scales the Heights

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大历史与历史研究

大历史是历史研究与教学的新领域,它是指从各种可能的规模甚至宇宙的规模来探究一切事物的历史。大历史也是一种跨学科研究。它与世界史存在关联,也是对传统史学的一种补充。大历史探究也满足了人们的精神、心灵和社会需求,有利于人们更好地认识自我。     

Intellectual History and the History of Philosophy

Summary

The issue which I wish to address in this paper is the widespread tendency in Anglophone philosophy to insist on a separation between the history of philosophy and the history of ideas or intellectual history. This separation reflects an anxiety on the part of philosophers lest the special character of philosophy will be dissolved into something else in the hands of historians. And it is borne of a fundamental tension between those who think of philosophy's past as a source of ideas and arguments of interest to the present, and those who hold that the philosophy of the past should be studied on its own terms, in relation to its immediate context, without reference to the present. The challenge, then, is to re-historicise the history of philosophy, and to keep the philosophers onside.