Assessing China’s response to the South China Sea arbitration ruling

Many international legal experts believe that the Philippines v. China arbitration award of 12 July 2016 represents a game changer for South China Sea dispute settlements because the award has brought a breathtaking legal clarity to the complex disputes. This article argues that the sweeping nature of the award had a very paradoxical effect on Chinese policy. The arbitration ruling has led to the hardening of China’s claims, but it has also raised a new readiness among Chinese policymakers to renew negotiations. The sweepingness of the award makes it hard for the Philippines to reach a negotiated compromise with China on the basis of the award, but it also presents a surprising political opportunity in regional politics for the major actors involved to lower tensions and recalibrate policies. Although China’s new readiness to negotiate is welcome, the overall impact of the three-and-a-half-year-long arbitration is likely to create a deadlock in negotiations in the near future. Paradoxically, this may raise the importance of political and power-centred approaches to regional dispute settlements, as the legal approach embodied by arbitration continues to meet Chinese defiance.     

Japan’s strategic interests in the South China Sea: beyond the horizon?

Japan has a national interest in the South China Sea issue. Although its direct commitment is ultimately limited in a material sense due to a lack of military capabilities, as well as political and constitutional constraints on the Self-Defense Force, Japan has maintained its firm stance to uphold international maritime rules and norms, and nurtured strong diplomatic relations and conducted maritime capacity-building programs with the South-East Asian states, as well as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. These actions contribute to consolidating the rule of law at sea and provide those claimant states an opportunity to withstand pressures from China. Given the Trump administration’s unclear South China Sea policy and South-East Asia’s strategic uncertainty, Japan is becoming a key player in maintaining regional maritime stability in East Asia through diplomacy.     

The Nationalist government’s efforts to recover Chinese sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea after the end of World War Two

Utilizing substantial archival materials, this article examines the process through which the Nationalist government reasserted Chinese sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea, including China’s stationing of troops on Dongsha Island, Yongxing Island, and Taiping Island. Well-prepared militarily, economically, and diplomatically, the Nationalist government achieved this strategic goal after overcoming various difficulties including insufficient ships and funds, unfavorable weather and maritime conditions, and the obstruction of the French colonial government in Vietnam. The Nationalist government also sent technicians to survey the islands and map out the sphere of Chinese maritime territory in the South China Sea, and it built two weather stations. These actions were publicized on December 1, 1947. During this process, the government of the United States adopted a policy of acquiescence due to its close collaboration with China. When the French government occupied one of the Xisha Islands and attempted to take firmer action, the United States and Britain pressured France to make concessions to China, which led the French government to seek a diplomatic solution.     

The China factor in the US–South Korea alliance: the perceived usefulness of China in the Korean Peninsula

Over the past 10 years, South Korea has chosen inconsistent strategies with respect to the US–South Korea alliance. On the one hand, Seoul disagreed with Washington about the extended role of United States Forces Korea and the deployment of US missile defence systems in East Asia. On the other hand, these problems ironically coincided with South Korea's strong support for the USA in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. What explains the inconsistency of South Korea's alliance policies? Major schools of thought in international relations have offered explanations, but their analyses are deficient and indeterminate. This article looks at the South Korea–China–North Korea triangle as a new approach to explaining the puzzling behaviour of South Korea. The model shows that South Korea's alliance policies are driven by two causal variables. First, North Korea is an impelling force for South Korea to remain as a strong US alliance partner. This encourages Seoul to maintain cooperation with Washington in wide-ranging alliance tasks. Second, South Korea's policies are likely to reflect the way the nation perceives how useful China is in taming North Korea. The perceived usefulness of China causes Seoul to accommodate China and decrease cooperation with the USA. This might strain the relationship with the USA should South Korea evade alliance missions that might run contrary to China's security interests.     

Engaging China’s new foreign policy in the South Pacific

China’s declared foreign policy of ‘non-interference’ is contradicted by its actions in recent times. Beyond activities in the East and South China Seas, the involvement of China in negotiations on the Korean Peninsula, the evacuation of Chinese citizens from various crises, and the deployment of Chinese combat troops to peacekeeping missions in Africa have indicated China’s growing interests in the shape of world affairs, coinciding with a growing economic and military capacity to influence them. Much attention has been given to the potential consequences of great-power competition between the USA and China, but little focus has been given to the impact these trends may have in the outlying regions of Chinese foreign policy. One such place is Melanesia in the South Pacific—a subregion where a small influence from a Chinese perspective can have a significant impact on Pacific Island Countries. This article postulates that, over time, there is potential for the consequences of Chinese interests to lead to accidental friction, and suggests that this risk can be mitigated through increased cooperation.     

Maritime Raiding,International Law and the Suppression of Piracy on the South China Coast, 1842–1869

This paper explores how piracy was defined and eventually reduced in the South China seas between 1842 and 1869. In the early 1840s, a large increase in maritime raiding led British agents to complain about the unwillingness of Qing officials to suppress disorder and drove the Hong Kong administration to propose its own solutions. British metropolitan officials nonetheless rejected many of these measures, arguing that they ran counter to established international maritime laws that made the Qing responsible for policing Chinese waters. Attempts were made to write this responsibility into the treaty which followed the Arrow War in 1860, but it was changes in the Qing state in the 1850s and 1860s which led Qing officials to treat small-scale maritime raiding as seriously as that of large rebel pirate fleets. The new Imperial Maritime Customs Service created an incentive to prevent smuggling and piracy which could deter trade and hence decrease customs revenue. The case suggests, first, that the large reduction in maritime raiding rested on Sino–British compromise and, second, that Britain used international maritime laws as much to control the expansive ambitions of Hong Kong as to encourage changes in Qing practices.     

Foraminiferal biostratigraphy of the Bei’an Formation (Visean–Serpukhovian) in the Pengchong area of Liuzhou,Guangxi, South China

Shen, Y. & Wang, X.L., 24.6.2015. Foraminiferal biostratigraphy of the Bei’an Formation (Visean–Serpukhovian) in the Pengchong area of Liuzhou, Guangxi, South China. Alcheringa 39,559–572 ISSN 0311-5518

The type section of the Mississippian Bei’an Formation is well exposed on both sides of the Beihuan expressway at Liuzhou in Guangxi, South China, about 700 m east of the Pengchong GSSP (Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point) for the base of the Visean Stage. Foraminifers are abundant and diverse (at least 59 species and 39 genera) in this section, and five foraminiferal zones are recognizable in the Bei’an Formation. In ascending order, these are the Pojarkovella nibelis, Koskinotextularia, Bradyina, Janischewskina and ‘Millerella’ tortula zones. Based on the foraminifers, the Bei’an Formation is regarded as being of middle Visean to Serpukhovian age, i.e., equivalent to biozones MFZ12–MFZ15 from the stratotypes of Europe, and the Visean–Serpukhovian boundary is placed at the base of the ‘Millerella’ tortula Zone.

Yang Shen [shenybj@126.com] (Corresponding author) and Xun-Lian Wang [wxl@cugb.edu.cn], School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), 29 Xueyuan Road, Beijing 100083, PR China.     

The dating of Doggerland – post-glacial geochronology of the southern North Sea

Abstract

The landscapes and archaeological sites of the southern North Sea, drowned in the period 12–6 ky BP, represent an almost unexplored field of research. Published palaeoenvironmental reconstructions are largely speculative, being based on few published sea-level index points and in the absence of detailed physical and chronological surveys. In this paper, we review the post-glacial geochronology for the southern North Sea, which includes 54 radiocarbon ages derived from peat, 17 from molluscs and one known dated artefact. The lack of detailed contextual information for many dated samples means that there remains uncertainty in some elevation data, and thus in the resulting interpreted sea level. The archaeological artefacts are mostly derived deposits and thus are of limited use in palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Overall, the data are consistent with current models of relative sea-level change back to about 10 ky BP (～45 m depth) but beyond this, there is very little published data. Much more detailed stratigraphic, microfossil and geochemical analysis is needed to help verify chronological data, help interpret the sedimentary settings in which fossils and artefacts are found, and contribute towards more reliable palaeoenvironmental and archaeological reconstructions of the history of the southern North Sea.     

A Clan‐Based Society of South Greece and its Militarization After the Second World War: Some Characteristics of Violence and the Construction of Habitus in the South Peloponnese

This paper presents some basic characteristics of the subculture of local society in the southern Peloponnese in Greece during the twentieth century. In particular, it examines the basic anthropological and social elements that formed the character of the members of the local society in Mani during the early part of the century, by emphasizing (i) the clan structure of the particular society, and (ii) the militarization of Mani as a strategy for mediation in local social relations.

The paper then analyses the way in which these basic social characteristics were interwoven with the dynamics of the political situation during the twentieth century (the Second World War, the occupation of Greece by Italian and German forces, and the Greek Civil War) by exploring the cultural habitus of the left‐wing and the right‐wing political networks in the region. Finally, it refers to the dialectics of the dynamic relationship between a clan‐based local society and the political events of the late 1940s, by means of some observations on the local social institution of the vendetta.     

Comecon and the South in the years of détente: a study on East–South economic relations

The article deals with the economic relations of the socialist bloc with less-developed countries in the 1960s and 1970s. It focuses on the economic policies envisaged by technocrats and policy-makers in the Comecon's Commission for technical assistance. It argues that the original formula based on autarky, whereby socialist aid aimed at building a clear alternative to the West and less-developed countries were advised to introduce Soviet-style planning, nationalisation and industrialisation, was progressively abandoned during détente. Doubts on the appropriateness of the Soviet model emerged, especially in Eastern European governments. Trade became increasingly crucial and the strategy of promoting an international division of labour based on mutual advantage turned into an obsession with importing strategic raw materials. In the mid-1970s, despite the official socialist view, the East pursued ‘realist’ policies that made sense in terms of economics rather than ideology. The myth of socialist modernity as a variant of industrial modernity had definitely collapsed, and socialist countries' participation in the Western-dominated world economy became a necessity. Eventually, the developing world became the place where a joint East–West co-operation could take place, often in the framework of the so-called trilateral co-operation, where Western Europe had a special role.     

Boer Propaganda During the South African War of 1899–1902

This article examines Boer propaganda on commando during the South African War by analysing how the two Boer governments and the military leadership endeavoured to inspire a citizen army and to keep the men in the field. In the South African War a commando was a Boer fighting unit, more or less the equivalent of a British regiment, and ‘on commando’ meant ‘in the field’. For the first seven months of the conflict, two important pro-Boer newspapers, De Volksstem and The Standard & Diggers' News were distributed on commando; carefully used, they exercised a significant impact on the combatants' morale. Later, in the guerrilla phase of the war, local newspapers, notably De Bazuin and De Zoutpansberg Wachter, often published under trying conditions, took their place. Furthermore, Boer officers played an important role by fanning patriotism in the ranks with their inspirational rhetoric. The Boer perception that his military and political cause was both just and noble before God was a useful propaganda tool, as were official war reports; they could, in addition to truths, include carefully selected half-truths and flagrant untruths.     

Securing the Sinews of Sea Power: British Intervention in the Baltic 1780–1815

This article argues that Britain's standing as a maritime nation must be considered if we are to fully understand the objectives behind British foreign policy in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. It focuses on one of the most important challenges successive British governments faced during this period; the need to secure shipbuilding resources. Both British economic prosperity and national security depended upon the continued supply of naval stores. These resources could only be procured from the Baltic region, which meant the region took on a crucial strategic importance for policy-makers. This article will focus on Britain's relationship with the Baltic between 1780 and 1815 tracing Britain's sensitivity to the changing political environment in Sweden, Denmark, Prussia, and particularly Russia, and outlining how this came to dictate foreign policy. Britain hoped to rely on diplomacy and economic interdependence to maintain the movement of naval stores from the Baltic; however intransigence from the Baltic powers forced Britain to resort to military measures on three occasions between 1800 and 1815, such was the importance of these shipbuilding resources.     

The Calibanisation of the South in the German public ‘Euro crisis’ discourse

This article highlights the renaissance of the essentialist topos of the ‘lazy and irrational’ ‘Südländer’ (Southerner, Southern countries, South) in the German political and media discourses during the ‘Euro crisis’. It argues that it served to legitimate the political and economic measures taken in Southern European countries that pushed them into still more peripheral positions within the European Union (EU) and deepened the cleavage between North and South. Culture, or better culturalism and racism as its political ideological version, thus were used as a trap, as an intellectual battleground for justifying extremely complex economic and political decisions in a simplistic fashion throughout a crucial period of European history. The article furthermore demonstrates how a postcolonial reading may productively decode the processes of Othering taking place within Europe itself, especially between the so-called core and peripheral countries.     

Predetermined for Predestination? On the Assumed Notion of Predestination in the Dead Sea Scrolls

The present article argues that the concept of predestination does not on the whole lend itself to Qumran studies. Unlike the writings of Augustine and Calvin, the scrolls contain nothing like a doctrine of predestination. The article reviews several texts from 1QS, 1QH, and CD, generally understood to reflect predestination, and suggests other ways of describing and interpreting the material.     

The clash of great powers and revolution in the Baltic Sea?

The Soviet party leadership claimed repeatedly after the mid-1920s that the Soviet Union was under an acute threat of intervention. The interpretation was based on different views regarding the development of socialism in the USSR. The role of Finland in the Soviet policy towards other border-states offers a case for observing the relation of ideology and practice in Soviet foreign policy, especially in the Baltic Sea context in 1925. The main interests for the Soviets were plans for military alliances and spheres of influence and intelligence. Contrary to the ideological worldview, the Peoples’ Commissariat for Foreign Affairs (NKID) did not see the western great powers, Great Britain and France, as being behind the Baltic alliance plan. Instead, the alliance attempt was primarily seen as an independent Polish initiative, especially lacking British support. The Soviet foreign administration was able to evaluate the grounds for eventual Finnish non-alliance accurately, despite Baltic sympathies and the lack of an active Scandinavian orientation. The results suggest the NKID observed international relations from the traditional viewpoint of Soviet state interests, and on the basis of quite accurate information, not reflecting the needs of ideological interpretation or domestic power struggles.