IMPLAN's Induced Effects Identified Through Multiplier Decomposition

An analysis of regional multipliers is developed to reveal a structural flaw in how IMPLAN computes induced effects. This analysis reveals a fixed ratio across sectors between total and Type I employment multipliers, and that IMPLAN's "Type III" income multipliers are inversely related to the average wages in the direct and indirect sectors, and that "Type III" output multipliers are not affected by wages. A multiplier decomposition is developed that separates direct and indirect effects from the induced and further separates the induced impact into relative wage and regional income retention effects. The decomposition is useful in making comparisons among impact models.     

中国省区间的外资R&D知识溢出及其空间差异研究——基于随机前沿生产模型(SFA)的实证

基于随机前沿生产函数构建的区域知识溢出模型,实证分析了中国省区层面的外资R&D空间溢出效应及其差异。结果显示,我国外资R&D活动不仅对本省存在溢出影响,对邻省亦有重要贡献;东部省区同时受益于其东、中部邻省的外资R&D溢出效应,但中西部省区均只从同一区域且邻近省份的外资R&D活动获益。研究还发现,我国三大区域内部均已结成紧密的省际空间联系,外资R&D双向溢出显著;但东部与中部省区的空间关联度不强,外资R&D呈单向溢出格局;而中部与西部之间目前仍存在明显的空间分割特征,造成彼此之间互无溢出。     

Infrastructure and Growth in a Spatial Framework: Evidence from the EU regions

This paper examines the return to infrastructure in the European Union regions in a spatial framework. It innovates on the earlier literature on infrastructure and growth by a combination of regional focus, disaggregation of infrastructure types and consideration of spatial dependence. Different types of infrastructure capital are considered as determinants of economic performance at the Nomenclature des Unités Territoriales Statistiques level. To account for growth spillovers among regions, a spatial Durbin model is estimated. The results confirm the important role of infrastructure and identify the highest rates of return as associated with telecommunication, quality and accessibility of transportation networks, with a positive impact of roads and railways.     

南京市区就业空间布局研究

本文采取就业密度分析方法,对南京市区就业空间布局进行实证研究。在南京市区现有11个区的基础上将南京市区划分为159个研究单元。依据2005年南京市1%人口抽样调查资料中"区县层面"分行业就业数据,以及2006年南京市用地现状图,修正匹配得到各个研究单元制造业、服务业、商业金融业及总的就业密度值。并运用Arcgis软件对就业密度值进行核密度分析以及3D模拟,分析南京市区制造业、服务业以及总就业的空间布局特征及原因机制。     

Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach

This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference-in-difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference-in-difference approach.     

Modelling tourism and hospitality employment clusters: a spatial econometric approach

ABSTRACT

Geographic clustering of industries for mutual economic benefit has long been recognised. The concept of ‘externalities’ introduced by Alfred Marshall early last century rely on agglomeration of specialised industry within a geographic area. However, only recently has cluster modelling been applied to the tourism and hospitality (T&H) industry. The aim of this paper, therefore, is twofold: first is to develop a cluster-based theoretical framework for delineating geographic boundaries of T&H clusters, and second is to identify the underlying factors that drive their form and shape.

Drawing on employment data as the basis for co-location of T&H firms, spatial econometrics techniques are applied to model the spatial clustering of T&H employment in Victoria, Australia. Results show that rural tourism regions have higher levels of employment in tourism operational services whereas employment in city-based regions is more concentrated in hospitality services. Our findings, when normalised as a percentage of total employment, show that rural and regional Victoria ranks most highly as employers in the T&H industry. Adopting a range of spatial metrics, we show that T&H clustering throughout Victoria is largely driven by six location-specific factors: (1) the availability of tourism attractions; (2) proximity to the coast; (3) the road density network; (4) accessibility to employment within the Melbourne CBD; (5) the scale of the regional economy; and, (6) the advantages and disadvantages associated with economic resources. We conclude that the cluster-led strategy pose a number of challenges for tourism planners to promote regional tourism. Nevertheless, results from this study indicate that T&H employment clustering creates a more cohesive spatial structure that could support economic development and better connectedness of tourism destinations. These clusters could act as service hubs to their wider catchment areas where visitors are encouraged to stay overnight and travel to specific sights during the day.     

旅游流空间模式基本理论:问题分析及其展望

旅游流是旅游地理学的基本问题,而旅游流空间模式的研究,自20世纪50年代以来则是旅游流研究的热点问题。通过文献分析法,本文将旅游流空间模式基本理论梳理为圈层结构理论、核心边缘理论、空间扩散理论。在此基础上,揭示其存在的若干问题,包括研究中存在的"区域视角"和"旅游者个体视角"混淆的认知问题、旅游客源地和旅游目的地在区域视角下如何界定的问题、空间模式研究中广泛存在的"二元陷阱"问题、区域间旅游职能分化及其分化程度尚无科学分析的问题等。文末对未来研究进行了展望,以期从理论意义上深化旅游流基本问题的建构。需指出的是,旅游流作为"非工作流"的一种,其"流现象"、"流空间"和"流效应"同样可适用于其它形式的"流研究"。     

The Net Effects of Large Plant Locations and Expansions on County Employment*

This paper argues that the net economic impact of new firm locations or expansions is determined by a multitude of opposing forces. Using a unique database, I set out to evaluate the net effects of these opposing forces by looking at the net change in local employment and population arising from large (greater than 300 new jobs) firm locations or expansions in the State of Georgia. The analysis suggests that the employment multipliers associated with new firm locations are much less than one; that is, the net employment effect of a large firm opening is smaller than the gross employment impact. This result is consistent with other empirical economic impact studies, which find multipliers much smaller than those of typical input–output models, often less than unity, and a previous study showing little net effect of large plant openings. Expansions of existing establishments are shown to have substantial multiplicative effects, however, with an average employment multiplier of 2.0. I discuss possible reasons for differential impacts across new and expanding firms, focusing on the nature of the firms. Differences in net impact across industries and high‐tech versus low‐tech firms also is evaluated. I find that the impact of large firm locations or expansions on population in the resident county generally is negative, but positive for the broader region encompassing the county of location and its contiguous neighbors.     

我国大学生就业城市选择意愿及其影响因素分析

引导大学生合理的就业流动是促进各类城市协调发展的有效途径。本文以不同类型的就业城市为研究对象,通过全国7个城市的1600余份调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型分析了我国大学生就业城市的选择意愿及影响因素。研究表明,大学生倾向以自身生源地为界限对劳动市场的地域进行二元划分,职业发展机遇和家庭因素在就业地的选择中最为重要,地区特质和自然生态环境的影响最弱,生源地和个人观念都与就业地的选择显著相关。在此基础上提出引导大学生就业流动的政策建议。     

Regional Demographic Dynamics in the Neolithic Transition in Iberia: Results from Summed Calibrated Date Analysis

This paper assesses long-term trends in human activity across the Iberian Peninsula associated with the spread of agriculture. In order to improve our understanding of regional trajectories within the two-way and multiple-velocity model proposed by Isern et al. (Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory 21:447–460, 2014), we consider summed calibrated radiocarbon dates of a large audited dataset from across Iberia. To assess the role of different analytical units, two alternative peninsular divisions at different spatial resolutions were used: one, with three generalized study areas, and the second, with eight biogeographic regions. This comparison of spatio-temporal variability provides a more in-depth inter-regional reading of the Neolithic transition in Iberia than more generalized approaches. The southwest, Mediterranean coasts and interior portions of Iberia all showed significant demographic expansion with the onset of the Neolithic, as observed across Western Europe. By contrast, northern Iberia featured a close adherence to a null model of exponential growth and a longer continuation of hunter-gatherer strategies.     

SPATIAL DISCONTINUITY FOR THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE EU REGIONAL POLICY: THE CASE OF ITALIAN OBJECTIVE 1 REGIONS*

The economic impact of the Regional Policy of the European Union is still controversial. This paper exploits administrative boundaries as spatial discontinuity to estimate the causal effect of this policy on the Italian Objective 1 regions’ employment. The analysis, developed both in a border strategy framework (municipalities contiguous to the policy‐change boundary) and with more traditional RDD models balanced by spatial forcing variables (centroids’ distance and coordinates), shows that the EU Regional Policy produced a positive impact on employment levels, without any displacement of economic activities away from nontreated regions and a concentration of the impact in key economic sectors.     

流动人口就业空间的集聚性和城市就业空间的关联研究——以南京市主城区为例

借鉴国内外相关研究方法,以南京市主城区为实证,运用集聚指数、空间网络关联模型、空间自相关分析以及空间拟合等方法,围绕着"流动人口-城市人口"之间的"局部-整体"关系,从就业集聚分区、就业网络分析和就业中心识别三方面比较和解析"流动人口"这一特殊群体的就业空间集聚性同城市就业空间的关联,并进一步探索其影响因素。     

Convergence and Divergence in the Australian Space Economy

Australia's space economy has changed rapidly since the 1970s through processes of globalisation, economic restructuring and demographic change. Trends in population distribution and patterns of employment and investment in economic activity highlight both spatial diffusion and concentration. Migration to ‘sun belt’ regions and suburban growth in the mega metro regions is creating population-led demand for production and services, thus creating investment growth and new employment in some consumer-oriented economic activities. However many internationally linked and national market serving economic functions are increasingly concentrated in the two largest cities at strategically located old and new nodes of agglomeration. No longer can population growth be equated directly with increased economic activity, and there are significant spatial mismatches between the outcomes of demographic and economic processes across the nation's cities and regions.     

Land Evaluation and Regional Pricing in the Soviet Union

The author examines the use of the Lorenz curve and the Florence method for measuring the degree of spatial concentration of industry in a given area, and then develops an index of his own, based on ratio of the industrial output, value of plant, and industrial employment per unit area in a region to the industrial output, value of plant, and industrial employment per unit area in the country (or larger regional entity) as a whole. Findings for the major economic regions and middle-level regions (oblasts, krays, ASSRs) of the RSFSR are shown in the form of tables, graphs and map. A pronounced spread in levels of concentration is found between the European and Asian portions of the RSFSR, with concentration levels in the Central Russian region (at one extreme) and the Soviet Far East (at the other extreme) differing by a factor of 56.     

The Transport-Geography Situation and Inter-Regional Links of Central Asia

The author analyzes Central Asia's inter-regional traffic by commodities and major economic regions as of 1960. He predicts that bulk freight will gradually diminish in importance and packaged goods will increase in significance as Central Asia's industry expands. He urges more intensive utilization of the Caspian-Volga waterway in addition to rail routes linking Central Asia with other regions and, in this connection, stresses the importance of the new rail ferry across the Caspian Sea. The paper brings up to date Robert Taaffe's Rail Transportation and the Economic Development of Soviet Central Asia, Univ. of Chicago, 1960.     

深圳市就业空间结构及其演变(2001-2004)

本文基于2001年基本单位普查和2004年经济普查数据,探讨深圳市就业空间结构的特征及演化趋势。研究表明,深圳市的就业空间结构存在就业密度下降、集聚程度不强、制造业占绝对地位、服务业郊区化等现象,而规划和市场是推动其演变的主要力量,在二者的共同作用下,深圳市就业空间结构将呈现以下的演变趋势:(1)从"带状组团式"向"网状组团式"转变;(2)制造业转型导致就业规模缩减;(3)服务业郊区化促进中心外围组团发展;(4)高端服务业集聚进一步增强。     

A DOUBLE-ENTRY METHOD FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF BI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES*

ABSTRACT. In The Netherlands, a strong tradition in the construction and updating of (inter)regional input-output tables has been built up. The paper gives a brief overview of this Dutch experience and discusses the features of the by now more or less standardized double-entry bi-regional construction method (DEBRIOT). This method systematically adds sales and export coefficients to the usual construction procedures. Thus, it introduces consistency checks at the cell level of the input-output table. Moreover, it offers a non-survey technique to estimate a regional domestic sales table that is crucial to the double-entry character of the method.     

Prospects of Population Migration in the USSR

The author offers a methodology for estimating inter-regional population flows in the USSR for the next quarter of a century. The method is based on expected regional manpower needs related to a model of the future distribution of production. Corrections are made for expected regional differences in the need for live labor [depending on the level of mechanization], in rates of natural increase and in the degree of mobility of the population of certain regions.     

Missing an opportunity: the Italian Mezzogiorno's trading troubles during European integration

Among the many troubles that southern Italy's economy is facing, its deficient trade performance receives little attention. Yet the Mezzogiorno's comparative disadvantage in trade is a recurring theme in the long history of Italian inter-regional disparities. Adverse conditions for firms in tradeables persist while European integration opens up new opportunities for this sector to expand. In this paper, a dataset of employment rates in tradeable and non-tradeable sectors from 2000 to 2010 is constructed to analyse the strength and development of the Mezzogiorno's export base during European integration. The analysis shows that the new trade opportunities alone did not suffice to even the Mezzogiorno regions' road to export orientation.     

The determinants of county growth

The determinants of population and employment growth were explored from a broader interregional (as opposed to intraregional) perspective. Data for the 1970s, at the county level of disaggregation, were used to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, and climatic variables on population and employment growth in a simultaneous equation framework. The use of data from the more than 3000 US counties provides a considerably larger testing ground than those used in previous research. The point of departure was a conventional, general equilibrium model in which both households and producers are geographically mobile. The study's dependent variables refer to population, total, and manufacturing employment densities. Family income had a powerful effect in stimulating both population and employment density. A 10% increase in family income led to a 7.9% increase in total and a 9.2% increase in manufacturing employment densities. High family income must stand for high demand, and thus, firms are drawn to an area. High family income also drew households to an area. A 10% increase in family income led to a 5.5% increase in population density. High family income must represent "good" neighborhoods for households. High family income was positively correlated with population and employment density, but in other recent studies either a negative and significant relationship or an insignificant relationship were reported. Local taxes consist of the receipts of county government and those of municipalities, townships, school districts, and special districts within the county. The elasticities reported in Table 4 suggest that a 10% increase in such taxes resulted in about a 0.072% reduction in county population density during the decade. The Industrial Revenue Bonds (IRBs) and the percent of the labor force that is unionized are 2 potential policy instruments at the state level. The study results suggest that IRBs have not stimulated either manufacturing or total employment, and the coefficients were statistically insignificant in the structural equations. The elasticities imply that a 10% increase in percent union reduces total employment by 0.42% and manufacturing employment by 0.18%. The effect on population was tiny. Further, while not intended, the interstate highway program may have been a significant redistributor of population and employment but has not caused immigration of people and jobs from central cities.