《味水轩日记》所反映长江下游地区1609—1616年间气候冷暖分析

虽然明清时期我国气候总体呈现出寒冷的特征,但其间气候并不是一成不变的,而是呈现出多次冷暖波动的格局。通过对高分辨率资料《味水轩日记》中降雪率、初终雪日期、河流初冰日期、红梅始花日期、初雷日期以及一些感应记录等证据进行分析,表明1609-1616年间长江下游地区的冬半年气温较为温暖,略微高于现代(1951-1980年)气温。这对于分析10年尺度上气候变化,了解明代气候及变化的特征具有重要意义。     

环境变化催生“绝景之旅”

哥本哈根世界气候大会,将马尔代夫等因气候变暖、海平面上升将在数十年后消失的世界绝美景点。引入了人们的视线。其中。南极洲、乞力马扎罗山、北极冰盖、马尔代夫群岛、意大利威尼斯、阿拉斯加、大堡礁、基茨比厄尔、厄瓜多尔加拉帕戈斯群岛、巴塔哥尼亚地区等景色将于数十年后消失在地平线上,从而催生了“十大绝景之旅”。     

基于UGC的气候环境对游客情感的影响研究

旅游业与气候环境之间关系紧密，旅游目的地气候条件及变化是游客出游动机的考虑因素之一，但气候环境与旅游体验的关系尚未完全厘清。基于在线评论和气象站点数据，本研究对气候环境与游客情感关系展开测度。结果表明：(1)南北方气候环境的整体性地域差异对游客情感没有显著影响，同时游客情感未随气候的季节变化呈现规律性波动；(2)相对于整体气候因素，降水量、相对湿度、日照时长和风速等4个单气候要素与游客情感有显著关联；(3)将游客情感细分为正负面之后，不同气候要素呈现显著差异，降水量和相对湿度稳定影响游客情感。本研究初步证实了环境与游客情感关系的存在，有助于旅游目的地根据气候环境特征开展针对性营销与服务运营。     

论北宋开封地区的气候变迁及其特点

北宋开封地区的气候,绝大部分时间表现为继唐代以来我国气候变迁史上第三个温暖期的延续。其转变为第三个寒冷期的时间不是如近几十年来学者们承竺可桢所说的北宋前期,而是在北宋后期的徽宗初年。建中靖国元年前后,该地气候突然发生明显变化而进入了新的寒冷期。其间尽管这里的气候在徽宗、钦宗年间曾出现过由温暖期向寒冷期的突变,但总体上是一个渐进的变化过程。在当时每一段温暖期与另一段寒冷期气候交替变化的周期中,每一个较长时间的气候变化周期内都有若干个气候暖、冷交替变化的短周期,甚至在每一个短的气候暖、冷变化的周期内还有一些特别偏寒冷或偏温暖的年份。     

两汉时期气候状况的历史学再考察

本文从农事活动时节、物候和干湿状况三个方面对两汉时期的气候情状进行了历史学的再考察。认为 :在冷暖变动方面 ,两汉时期的气温比其前的春秋时期气温要低 ;与今天相比较无大差异 ,仅有的区别在于具体的变动幅度上 ;前、后汉相比 ,西汉略冷 ,东汉稍暖 ,但其间有多次波动 ,东汉末年 ,气候急剧转冷。在干湿状况方面 ,该期具有若干干湿相间的显著特征     

《燕行录》资料反映的16-19世纪东北南部地区冬半年气温变化

朝鲜古汉籍《燕行录》,是历史上朝鲜使臣出使中国的见闻记录,保留有很多历史气候资料,十分宝贵。本文收集了19种《燕行录》中记载的16-19世纪东北南部地区河流封冻情况,并利用中国其它文献为补充,使用现代河流封冻资料为对照,逐年考订了当时河流封冻与现代河流封冻的距平情况,并得出封冻期的50年平均距平值。由于冬半年气温变化是影响河流冰情的关键因素,河流封冻情况的变化可很好地反映该区域冬半年温度变化情况。分析发现,在1500-1900年间,存在3个较冷的时期,其中16世纪上半期是400年中最冷的时期;存在2个较暖的时期,分别为18世纪下半叶和19世纪下半叶。而和20世纪的温度变化衔接分析,则500年间区域气温基本是上升的趋势。同时和中国其它区域以及欧洲的小冰期温度变化序列比较,在大的趋势变化和波动方面有一致性,但在时间上并不完全一致。表明区域间气候变化的复杂性。     

藏历

藏族天文历算之学是世代居住,生活在青藏高原上的藏族人民,在高原特殊的自然地理和气候条件环境下,在长期的生产活动中根据生产和生活的需要,不断观察日月星辰,冷暖气候等天象和四时节气,动植物生长变化等大自然现象,总结和积累实践经验并吸收周边汉地和古印度的天文历算学说而发展起来的。     

泥河湾盆地旧石器中晚期以来人类行为的变化与环境变化的关系

一、引言探讨全球气候变化对人类活动的影响是当前全球气候变化研究中的前沿课题。一方面会拓展全球气候变化研究的意义 ,另一方面人类演化和文化发展中的一些重大问题也会得到一个较为满意的解释 12 3。更新世晚期到全新世初期 ,是人类自身及其文化发生变化的一个重要时期 ,其主要标志是现代人起源并向全球扩散和农业的发生 ;同时 ,这一时期也是自然环境变化较多的一个时期 ,末次冰期极盛期的来临与消退 ,使得有些时期极端干冷 ,有些时期干湿冷暖快速波动。泥河湾盆地处于中原与北方的过渡地带和气候变化的敏感地带 ,为研究人类的技术、行…     

评介《中国历史时期冬半年气候冷暖变迁》

评介《中国历史时期冬半年气候冷暖变迁》钮仲勋气候是环境变迁的主导因素,历史气候是我国历史地理学科的传统研究领域之一,自著名科学家竺可桢先生的《中国近五千年来气候变迁的初步研究》一文问世后,二十余年以来已取得较大的进展,近年来又出现一些有质量的成果,由...     

过去千年黄土高原干湿变化和极端干旱事件与太平洋年代际振荡

本文利用历史文献资料重建了黄土高原地区过去千年的干湿变化及极端干旱事件序列。在过去千年中,AD1520左右黄土高原发生过一次由干向湿的转变。极端干旱事件在过去千年有三个持续大约250年的多发期。干湿变化与极端干旱事件的对应关系表明二者呈现独立演变的趋势。黄土高原干湿变化总体上与东亚夏季风呈较好的正相关关系。但在升温时这种关系并不稳定。而极端事件则在暖时段与冷谷时发生概率偏高。与PDO对比结果显示,千年尺度上黄土高原干湿变化同PDO存在显著的正相关关系,极端干旱事件在PDO处于暖相位时发生概率显著上升,且在一定程度上受到SOI的影响。     

Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already with us. According to this view, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced within Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration; and this migration in turn exacerbated the socio-economic stresses that underpinned Syria's descent into war. This article provides a systematic interrogation of these claims, and finds little merit to them. Amongst other things it shows that there is no clear and reliable evidence that anthropogenic climate change was a factor in Syria's pre-civil war drought; that this drought did not cause anywhere near the scale of migration that is often alleged; and that there exists no solid evidence that drought migration pressures in Syria contributed to civil war onset. The Syria case, the article finds, does not support ‘threat multiplier’ views of the impacts of climate change; to the contrary, we conclude, policymakers, commentators and scholars alike should exercise far greater caution when drawing such linkages or when securitising climate change.     

AD536 – BACK TO NATURE?

A spate of archaeological, historical and scientific publications have recently argued that the dust veil from a volcanic eruption (or series of eruptions) caused climatic change, which ‘forced’ significant historical transformations in the middle of the sixth century AD. In this paper, I situate this phenomenon within a more general return to environmental determinism in archaeological explanation, a return which itself needs to be understood in the context both of contemporary fears about the devastation to be unleashed by the climatic change we have made, and of the rise of precise measurement in environmental and archaeological science. I do not doubt the reality of the climatic change reconstructed for AD536/546 but, given the coarseness of the dating of the historical transformations, I do question the causal connections drawn between the former and the latter. I suggest that for many archaeologists, the AD536 event (and similar phenomena) functions much as written texts once did – as both the framework for analysis and as the explanation of historical process.     

Climate,History, and Culture: The Power of Change

Global climate change and its consequences for humankind opens up a research field for exploring the diverse dimensions and forces of change through time. Chief among the objects of inquiry is how climatic shifts impact on ecological and social structures and developments and what human agencies are able to unfold under given conditions. Conclusions from such reciprocities can help to deliver a differentiated approach to the inroads of anthropogenic climate change. Central to this enterprise are such analytic perspectives as the discipline of anthropology can bring to researching the impact of climate change on human societies.     

Mapping 100 Years of Thornthwaite Moisture Index: Impact of Climate Change in Victoria,Australia

Geographer C. W. Thornthwaite proposed in 1948 a moisture index called Thornthwaite Moisture Index (TMI) as part of a water balance model for a new classification system for climate. The importance of TMI climatic classification has been recognised in many areas of knowledge and practice worldwide over the last 60 years. However, although past climate research was focused on developing adequate methods for climate classification, current research is more concerned with understanding the patterns of climate change. The use of TMI as an indicator for climate change is still an incipient area of research. The contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it is to fully document a methodology based on geostatistics adopted to produce a time series of TMI maps that are accurate and have high spatial resolution. The state of Victoria, in Australia, over the last century, is used as the case study. Second, by analysing these maps, the paper presents a general evaluation of the spatial patterns found in Victoria related to moisture variability across space and over time. Some potential implications of the verified moisture changes are discussed, and a number of ideas for further development are suggested.     

The changing biosphere: recent insights from paleoenvironmental science into drivers,mechanisms and impacts

Paleoenvironmental science has experienced a recent surge in interest and activity as concerns grow over global environmental change. Key research questions in the biotic realm of paleoenvironmental science focus on explaining climatic change at time scales of decades to centuries and understanding ecosystem responses to these changes. Biotic responses are increasingly being studied at smaller spatial scales to identify local factors that determine the sensitivity of a particular system to climatic change. These findings can then be applied to solving a variety of problems, such as setting conservation targets or testing mechanisms for observed climatic and biogeographic phenomena. Research approaches commonly used today include hypothesis testing, which has now become more sophisticated as paleoecologists and paleoclimatologists integrate with modellers. Other frameworks involve the quantitative integration of multiple proxy indicators and the use of extensive publicly available data networks to produce new datasets for paleoclimatic reconstructions and other applications.     

气候变迁和中国历史

本文联系东亚、欧州和北美气候变迁及其影响 ,论述中国各历史时期气候变迁和历史的关系。指出以农为本的中国 ,尤其是北方 ,在气候变化面前显得格外脆弱。气候变化影响农业 ,从而影响社会各方面。从新石器时代至清朝 ,中国气候温暖期与寒冷期周期性变化的过程 ,是游牧文明与农耕文明两种生态环境较量与整合的过程。在温暖期 ,中国经济繁荣 ,民族统一 ,国家昌盛 ;寒冷期 ,气候剧变引起经济衰退 ,游牧民族南侵 ,农民起义 ,国家分裂 ,经济文化中心南移等。最后 ,作者指出 ,在历史时期 ,气候是中国北方政治命运的决定性因素之一 ,并强调将世界气候作为一个整体研究历史事件的重要性     

Climatic signal in tree-ring chronologies of Cedrus deodara from Chitral Hindukush Range of Pakistan

Tree-rings are an important tool for the investigation of paleoclimatic records for regions or periods of time with no instrumental climatic data. However, the responses of different species and sites to various climatic parameters are unusual. In the present study, we developed tree-ring-width chronologies of Cedrus deodara from three different sites of Chitral Hindukush range of Pakistan. The study was conducted to understand tree-growth climate relationship and its applicability in proxy climate investigations. The chronologies covered the past 469 to 595 years, with a mean segment length (MSL) ranging from 148 to 223 years. Climatic data obtained from the three weather stations showed strong correlation and was found useful for tree-ring climate relationships. Correlation Function (CF) and Response Function (RF) analysis showed that spring precipitation (March–May) is a critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature prior to November may also play a major role in affecting tree ring-growth. The results exposed that the three sites have continuous relationship indicated that only single species from different locations are affected by the same environmental variables and hence can be used in climate reconstruction in combination. The Cedrus deodara chronologies developed at different locations had several corresponding narrow and wide marker rings indicating a large macroclimatic response to regional climatic conditions. The current study suggests that the tree-rings of Cedrus deodara from the Chitral Hindukush range could be used to develop chronologies for the reconstruction of seasonal climatic variables.     

A late Holocene pollen record from Lake Almalou in NW Iran: evidence for changing land-use in relation to some historical events during the last 3700 years

A pollen diagram was prepared from Lake Almalou, a volcanic crater wetland located on the eastern flanks of the Sahand Volcanic Complex in NW Iran. The core provides a 3700-year record of human activity and environmental change in an upland region. We attempt to relate vegetation changes to both climatic change and historical events. Variations of anthropogenic pollen indicators suggest several phases of intensified human activities. Two strongly expressed agricultural phases are dated at about 2450–2220 cal BP (Achaemenid Empire) and 230–30 cal BP (collapse of Safavid Dynasty to the modern period). Historical rather than climatic events appear to be the main controlling factors for upland land-use dynamics. Fruticulture has been practiced in the region at least since the Iron Age, reaching its maximum importance 1500–1250 cal BP during the reign of Sassanid Empire; it declined by the time of Islamic conquest of Iran (651 AD). The Little Ice Age is tangibly recorded by higher lake water levels most probably due to both lower summer temperatures and higher annual precipitations. Low values of cereal-type and cultivated tree pollen during this period may indicate a change in the lifestyle from the cultivation of fields and orchards to a more nomadic life dominated by summer pasture. The modern period (1850 AD onwards) is characterized by expansion of agricultural activities to upland areas and intensified pastoralism.     

Climate Maps in National Atlases

A complete climate section of a national atlas should contain maps, tables and graphs presenting data on climate-forming factors, the temperature regime, moisture supply, climatic regions and typical weather situations. Published national atlases are analyzed and recommendations for the treatment of climate are made. Particular importance is attached to the integrated presentation of several climatic elements on a single map. The value of climatic maps for various segments of the economy (agriculture, construction, transportation) is emphasized.     

关于极端干旱地区人地关系历史演变的初步研究——以塔里木盆地为例

纵观极端干旱地区生态环境与人类活动关系的全过程,可以看出:在气候环境自然演化的背景下,人地关系存在着时间与空间上的两种变迁。从历史时期看,从原始社会、农业社会到工业社会,人地关系大致经历了依附自然、干预顺应自然、干预自然、回归自然四个阶段。从空间上看,表现出人类"逐水而徙","依水而居"的相互关系。各个阶段以气候环境变化为背景,以水资源为主线,表现出人地关系演变的时空特征。塔里木水系的瓦解和塔里木盆地的沙漠化以及胡杨林植被面积的缩小,说明近100年来人类活动对人地关系的演化逐步起主导作用