CAPITALIZATION OF URBAN TRAVEL IMPROVEMENTS INTO RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: SIMULATIONS WITH A UNIFIED MODEL OF HOUSING,TRAVEL MODE AND SHOPPING CHOICES*

ABSTRACT. An equilibrium model of multimodal travel time improvements is developed and calibrated for the New York Metropolitan Area. The model employs a unified treatment of housing type, residential location and commuting mode choices with shopping (destination, frequency and mode) choices. Benefits of halving subway headways are reflected in consumer surplus and capitalized into producer surplus, with the latter divided between housing and commercial real estate. Sensitivity tests and simulations on other modes are also presented. Unlike the subway mode, across-the-board travel time improvements for bus, auto and commuter rail reduce central area housing rents, but auto improvements yield higher total benefits and increases in commercial rents.     

STATISTICAL PROPERTIES OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING MODELS OF STOCHASTIC NETWORK EQUILIBRIUM*

ABSTRACT. Boyce et al. (1981, 1983) have proposed and implementd the use of observed entropy levels to estimate the travel-cost coefficient in mathematical programming models of network equilibrium which involve logit route-choice probabilities. This so-called “dispersion-constrained” model is shown to give severely biased and statistically inefficient underestimates. A natural counterpart, the entropy-maximizing model, is proposed here and overestimates the travel-cost coefficient with much lower bias and much higher statistical efficiency. Even though the two models are mathematically homeomorphic in some respects, they have vastly different statistical properties. It follows that the use of observed entropy levels is undesirable and should be avoided, since maximizing entropy provides an unambiguously superior alternative.     

HOUSEHOLD LOCATION AND RACE: A 20‐YEAR RETROSPECTIVE*

ABSTRACT In research conducted some 20 years ago, we elucidated the starkly lower suburbanization propensities of black households in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area. The paper showed that simulated closure of large socio‐economic gaps between blacks and whites did little to diminish prevailing high levels of residential segregation or otherwise enhance moves by black households to areas of educational, employment, and housing opportunity. Some two decades later and in the wake of significant urban evolution, this paper assesses anew racial variations in residential location choice. Results of the multinomial logit (MNL) analysis indicate large, persistent racial differentials in intrametropolitan residential location choice. While black location choice in 2000 was relatively more dispersed than in 1980, it remained remarkably concentrated in D.C. and Prince George's County. As in our prior analysis, results showed that large simulated gains in black economic and educational status had little effect on prevailing racial segregation. These findings underscore the ongoing, limited access of black households to schooling, employment, and homeownership opportunities available outside traditional areas of settlement. In marked contrast, the locational choices of Latino and immigrant households bore greater similarity to those of whites and were more sensitive to improvements in socio‐economic status.     

THE ECONOMICS OF AIR TRAVEL GRAVITY MODELS*

Starting with the aggregate demand model of economics, a model of demand for intercity air travel is developed which contains the gravity model as a less general submodel. The more general model is referred to as the alternative opportunities model since it takes account of alternative destinations open to travelers, not just origin and destination as does the gravity model. The demand model approach has the virtue of providing a theoretical basis for understanding and analyzing the gravity model. The gains from treating alternative locations and demand motivation variables are a substantial increase in explanatory power over that yielded by the gravity model, the identification of statistically significant determinants of air travel, and better measurement of the coefficients of population and distance by taking account of these other variables and somewhat better forecasts. A shortcoming of procedures used here is aggregation of air trips with different purposes and thus lack of clear specification of the size of effects of different variables on different types of travel. Overcoming this difficulty must await origin-destination data listed by trip purpose.     

OBNOXIOUS FACILITY LOCATION IN THE INTERIOR OF A PLANAR NETWORK*

ABSTRACT. The problem of locating a point that is as far as possible from arcs and nodes of a network is investigated. Each arc or node may have a different multiplicative factor (weight) for its distance. A graphical solution approach, as well as a computational algorithm, is presented.     

PRICE AND LOCATION CONJECTURES IN MEDIUM- AND LONG-RUN SPATIAL COMPETITION MODELS*

ABSTRACT. This paper examines medium-run and long-run equilibria in unbounded (circular) and bounded (linear) one-dimensional multifirm markets. A price-location adjustment model is outlined that dows simulation of the spatial equilibrium when these firms anticipate reactions from their nearest spatial rivals. Thus, the market equilibrium is derived from the interdependent but atomistic decisions of the competing firms and is not imposed by some outside observer or agency. Ail conjectures are exogenous; the three well-known price conjectures (Greenhut-Ohta, Hotelling-Smithies, and Losch) are highlighted; and the relevant comparative statics are provided.     

NEW DIRECTIONS FOR URBAN ECONOMIC MODELS OF LAND USE CHANGE: INCORPORATING SPATIAL DYNAMICS AND HETEROGENEITY*

ABSTRACT We review the usefulness of urban spatial economic models of land use change for the study and policy analysis of spatial land use–environment interactions. We find that meaningful progress has been made in econometric and monocentric models extended to account for multiple sources of spatial heterogeneity and in the development of general equilibrium models with spatial dynamics. Despite these advances, more work is needed in developing models with greater realism. Most agent‐based computational models of urban land use change currently lack economic fundamentals, but provide a flexible means of linking microlevel behavior and interactions with macrolevel land use dynamics. In combination with empirical methods to identify parameters, this framework provides a promising approach to modeling spatial land use dynamics and policy effects.     

LOCATION OF PUBLIC FACILITIES WITH SPILLOVER EFFECTS: VARIABLE LOCATION AND PARAMETRIC SCALE*

ABSTRACT This paper studies the location of public facilities of two neighboring local governments which consider not only the influence of the land market but also the spillover effects that each jurisdiction may have on the other. We obtain the following results: (1) in most cases, one of the cities behaves as an isolated city in choosing the facility location while the other enjoys the spillover effect as a free rider; (2) we also find that the equilibrium location in the two noncooperative city case is not socially optimal except for a special case.