论转型期英国人口迁移模式的变化

转型期英国人口迁移以17世纪中叶为界先后形成了生计型迁移和改善型迁移两种模式。17世纪中叶以前,随着人口快速增长而出现乡村人口过剩,许多人为生计所迫,在原住地推力和城市拉力的双重作用下形成了生计型迁移模式。这一时期人口迁移具有相当的盲目性和不确定性。17世纪中叶以后,人口增长减速,经济地理布局日趋均衡,城市拉力作用减弱,人口迁移走向地方化和有序化,从而形成了改善型迁移模式。转型期英国人口迁移模式的变化深刻影响到向近代社会转型的历史进程。     

A Hierarchical Migration Model of Population Redistribution within a Central Place Hierarchy

A simple hierarchical migration model is proposed as a mechanism for the redistribution of population within a Christaller central place hierarchy. Given a predefined functional hierarchy, the migration process causes any initial population distribution to converge to an equilibrium distribution. Under certain special conditions, the equilibrium is identical to a central place population distribution derived from economic base concepts.     

Prospects of Population Migration in the USSR

The author offers a methodology for estimating inter-regional population flows in the USSR for the next quarter of a century. The method is based on expected regional manpower needs related to a model of the future distribution of production. Corrections are made for expected regional differences in the need for live labor [depending on the level of mechanization], in rates of natural increase and in the degree of mobility of the population of certain regions.     

Two-Way Migration in a Model with Identical Optimizing Agents

The simplest migration models based on maximizing behavior assume movement toward more desirable locations, and therefore ignore the large portion of moves in the "wrong" direction. Based on a model with identical, utility-maximizing agents, the analysis below shows that changes in relative location attractiveness can cause many migrants to move against the dominant stream. Even when the population distribution is stable and variation in wages and prices across locations reflect compensating differentials, so locations are equally attractive, individuals choose to move between locations, spending parts of their lives in different locations. These results stem from the role of consumption opportunities in migration decisions, highlighting processes that have been largely ignored.     

Commuting, Migration, and Rural-Urban Population Dynamics

Over the past 25 years social scientists attempting to explain the dramatic changes in the relative distribution of urban and rural population growth have gravitated toward two competing explanations. The regional restructuring hypothesis holds that changes in the spatial distribution of employment opportunities have been dominant whereas the deconcentration hypothesis attributes these changes to changes in residential preferences of workers and consumers. We develop an empirical test of these two explanations based on whether commuting and migration are positively or negatively related after controlling for other economic factors. Our econometric results support the deconcentration hypothesis.     

抗战时期浙江省的人口迁移与地域分布

抗战时期浙江省的人口迁移总数约有 5 0 0万人 ,其迁移情况极为复杂。其中 2 0 0余万人迁至省外 ,主要分布于闽、赣、皖、沪和华中、西南各省。大部分移民是在省内迁移。战时浙省移民迁移持续时间较短 ,最终转化为移民的只是少数。由于种种原因 ,战争期间即有部分移民回迁。战争结束后 ,绝大部分移民均回迁原住地。难民迁移的最根本最内在的动力来自经济和政治因素 ,尤其是经济因素     

明清时期陕西境内的人口迁移

时清时期是我国历史上人口迁移极其频繁的时代。本文主要探讨明清两代今陕西省境内的人口迁移过程,包括人口迁移的原因、形式、迁移数量、外来移民的地区分布等。在此基础上,本文还分析总结了外来移民对迁入地区的人口分布、经济开发、自然环境等方面的影响。本文认为,由于外来移民的大量迁入,明清时期陕南许多山区得到广泛开垦,耕地面积大为增加,土地开发利用程度超过历史上任何时期,客观上促进了各有关迁入区经济的发展。但由于大肆毁林开荒,盲目扩大耕地面积,致使陕南山区自然环境遭到严重破坏,自然灾害频频发生,从而制约当地经济的持续发展。这一教训我们应引以为诫。     

A Decision-Making and Search Model For Intraurban Migration

Most of the research on the intraurban migration attempting to develop models of the mobility process has presented intuitively appealing statements about the residential decision process, but stopped short of a formal development of these concepts. If it is to be possible to predict the mobility pattern within the city, both the search and selection process must be more clearly specified. In this paper, a preliminary theoretical model containing decision rules similar to those found in optimal search models is developed. The model explicitly incorporates the spatial and temporal aspects of residential choice and has the potential to predict the probability that a prospective migrant will search for a new residence in a given area of the city, the time when the search process will come to a conclusion and, by implication, the expected location of the new residence. The preliminary results from the model suggest a major elaboration of the spatial and temporal aspects of residential choice under conditions of uncertainty in terms of a set of empirically measurable determinants, relating to a household's preferences, beliefs, and degree of risk aversion.     

Migration in a segmented labour market

"Current research in migration is moving on from neo-classical and behavioural perspectives to a more structural approach relating to wider processes, issues of power and the particular role of employers. Within this programme a key issue for investigation is the interaction between spatial mobility and the structuring of labour markets. This paper focuses on the significance of labour market segmentation--in terms both of job stability and gender--for migration, both theoretically and through an empirical analysis of data from the UK Labour Force Survey on sponsored and unsponsored moves."     

Demographic Modeling of the Geography of Migration and Population: A Multiregional Perspective

This article focuses on the development and evolution of migration and population redistribution modeling within the spatial context of multiregional demography. It begins in 1965, when the state-of-the-art consisted largely of ideas and techniques imported from other disciplines (regression analysis, gravity models, Markov chains, and matrix cohort-survival population projection models) and then continues on to tell the story of multiregional demography, its evolution and emergence as a fully developed paradigm for studying the spatial dynamics of migration and population redistribution and, more recently, its approach for estimating the necessary migration input measures from inadequate data.     

Religion and Constitutionalism: Oscillations Along a Continuum

This review article analyses three books published between 2010 and 2013 and explores the ways in which a nation, secular or otherwise, can deal with religion within its borders, both legally and socially. For many nations, this means employing a foundational document or text, usually a constitution, to exclude religion from, neutrally to structure its participation in, or actively to promote a particular type of it in the public arena. The article develops two primary themes. First, using Ran Hirschl's work, it reveals a continuum of approaches to the constitutional treatment of religion; yet, in plotting those points along the continuum, what one finds is far from precision placement; rather, there is oscillation around several points. Second, in considering specific constitutions, it becomes apparent that the more difficult or ambiguous it is to modify or amend a formal text, the greater the importance assumed by judicially developed interpretative techniques.     

The Effect of Migration on Changes,Composition, and Distribution of Canada's Population

The high mobility of the Canadian population accounts for the significant influence of migration processes on the dynamics, composition, and distribution of population. Immigration determines to a large extent the age-and-sex and ethnic distribution of the population and labor force, and fosters urbanization. The areal distribution of immigrants intensifies regional differences in the level and structure of the economy. These differences, in turn, are the main factor in interregional migration. The interdependence between regional economic indicators and the intensity of migration is analyzed.     

Land Markets in the Harris-Todaro Model: A New Factor Equilibrating Rural-Urban Migration

Recent research in the Harris-Todaro (HT) tradition has added an important new element to the model by incorporating an urban land market. Brueckner and Zenou (1999) (hereafter BZ) argue that a model where migration equalizes expected wages between city and countryside may overlook another important force that equilibrates the process of rural-urban migration. This force is the migration-induced rise in the urban cost of living, which occurs principally through escalation of urban land rents as the city population expands. Land-rent escalation, which tends to limit rural-urban migration, provides an important additional force that may help determine city sizes in developing countries. The present paper provides a simpler alternative to BZ's analysis by assuming that urban residents smooth their income as they cycle between formal and informal employment. This allows migration decisions to be based on the expected wage, as in the usual HT framework, in a model that includes a land market. The analysis shows that this modified framework generates results slightly different from those of BZ.