THE JOINT CHOICE OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S OCCUPATION AND DESTINATION*

ABSTRACT This study examines the relationship between an individual's occupation choice and destination choice. It portrays the relationship as an interaction between the supply of occupational skills by individuals and demand by different labor‐market regions. The unusual merger of a multinomial logit model of occupational choice and the conditional logit model of destination choice in a simultaneous equation framework requires derivation of a unique variance–covariance matrix. Results indicate strong association between supply of (migration) and demand for (industry mix) an individual's occupational skills. These effects are especially strong for destinations experiencing slow economic growth, while relatively unimportant for high‐growth locations.     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

Moving back vs. moving on: the concept of home in the decision to remigrate

"This study examines the effect of information and psychic costs on the remigration propensity of the U.S. labor force. Specifically, the study investigates how the proximity of a potential migration destination to a previous residence, and familiarity with this residence, affect information and psychic costs, and thus, remigration propensity. In this respect it is hypothesized that familiarity with, and location of, a prior residence are significant determinants of both the migration destination and the allocative efficiency of the remigration process." Several specific hypotheses are developed and tested using data on interstate, nonreturn, repeat migration of the white male labor force over the period 1965-1970.     

Demographic Cycle Effects on Migration Timing and the Delayed Mobility Phenomenon

This paper examines the effect of a cohort's size and position in the demographic cycle on the timing of migration during the young, labor force years. Previous literature has shown that demographic cycles are highly influential in determining the level of migration: migration propensities of young adults tend to be lower for large cohorts due to competitive labor markets and depressed job opportunities. This study argues that demographic cycles can also influence the timing of migration, and proposes a methodology that separates the examination of migration levels from that of migration timing. Analyses using Current Population Survey data show that members of small cohorts tend to move earlier on in their life cycle than members of large cohorts. Reconstructed age-schedules of migration for large and small cohorts support the existence of “delayed mobility” among baby boomers.     

The Impact of Migration on Wages: Empirical Evidence from French Youth*

Abstract. This paper deals with the impact of migration on wages. We introduce a spatial dimension into the job search framework, so that the agent faces neither the same job offer distribution nor the same search costs when looking for a job inside his local labor market. This is in comparison to the agent searching outside his local labor market, where migration costs are a factor. We estimate wage equations in which we introduce the decision to migrate as a binary choice, and later as a polychotomic choice (stayer/mover from provinces to Paris/mover from provinces to provinces). We find no selection effect for people with low levels of education, and a positive selection effect for highly educated migrants. When we distinguish the migration destination for highly educated from provinces, we find a hierarchical effect, that is, the selection effect is higher for men who migrate to Paris than for those who migrate to other provinces.     

URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF LABOR MARKETS: AN EXAMINATION OF THE “TODARO PARADOX” IN A SPATIAL CONTEXT*

ABSTRACT The Todaro paradox and the effects of job creation in urban areas will be re-examined in our spatial model in which the radius of the labor market is endogenously determined by the rational choices of workers. The travel cost of workers plays a crucial role in the choice between two different types of response, migration or commuting. By considering travel costs, we find that the Todaro paradox can be applied to developed, as well as developing, countries. Job creation in urban areas can produce a paradoxical increase in urban unemployment in developed countries, because the low marginal cost of travel will significantly increase the radius of the urban labor market and create new labor supply without migration.     

Assessing the Impact of Location on Women's Labor Market Outcomes: A Methodological Exploration

Location and the nature of locally available employment opportunities is believed to shape labor force participation, job type, and wages. Analysts investigating this issue have encountered problems in operationalizing the concept of “locally available employment opportunities.” We first review the grounds for expecting a relationship between local context and employment outcomes for women and then critically assess the methods and measures that analysts have used to explore the relationship. Finally, we describe a new approach for measuring local employment context that consists of a fine-scaled measure individually tailored for each woman in the sample. Using discriminant analysis we ask whether the spatial variables measuring local employment context are important determinants of women's employment in female-dominated occupations. The results suggest that for most groups of women (defined by city or suburban residence and by sociodemographics) the spatial variables are not important. For well-educated, part-time employed women with young children, however, living in an area rich in female-dominated job opportunities increases the likelihood of having a job in a gender-typical occupation; for these women, the local employment context does affect labor market outcomes.     

Determinants of postdisplacement reemployment outcomes and occupation changes

We investigate the roles played by agglomeration (proxied by population density) and occupational distribution on postdisplacement employment outcomes for US workers, focusing on the probability of being employed, the likelihood of changing occupations, and the occupational distance between the old and new occupations (where occupational distance is defined as the difference in job tasks between two occupations). Overall, we find that the local occupational distribution has a greater impact on our outcome variables compared with our agglomeration measure. Our findings suggest policy makers should look closely at occupational distribution when designing job training programs and proposals for relocation vouchers.     

'I'd Heard it was Such a Grand Place': Mid-19th Century Internal Migration to London

Abstract

In the mid-19th century, the migration of people into London was at its height. Studies of gross and net migration patterns from other regions demonstrate the importance of London as a goal destination, but until now the underlying structure of migration movements was difficult to access due to the volume of material involved. This paper exploits the recent indexing of the currently available censuses to identify the individual migration behaviour of young men from Devon, Norfolk and Sussex to London. Findings relating to the size and locality of source places, occupational backgrounds, kinship and to residential and occupational choice upon reaching London are presented for each county. The importance of information as a spur to migration is underlined and differing responses in terms of occupation are attributed to distance depreciation of such information.     

SPATIAL MOBILITY AND RETURNS TO EDUCATION: SOME EVIDENCE FROM A SAMPLE OF FRENCH YOUTH*

ABSTRACT This study re‐evaluates the returns to geographic mobility and to the level of education taking into account the interaction between these two variables, and using the distance covered as a proxy for migration costs. We have at our disposal an original French database that permits precise calculation of the distance between the place of education and the location of first employment. For men, we find decreasing returns to spatial mobility as the distance covered rises and increasing returns to mobility with higher levels of education. The marginal returns to spatial mobility for women are lower across the board.     

社会转型时期美国女性就业特征与影响(1870-1920)

1870年至1920年,随着工业化和城市化的初步实现,美国经济发展速度空前,创造出了大量就业岗位,并由此形成了一股女性就业高潮。该时期美国就业女性以年轻的单身女性为主,工作岗位高度集中在家庭服务业、制造业、白领以及专门行业中,且具有明显的因种族和民族而导致的就业差异特征。美国女性大量进入就业领域提升了自己的家庭和社会地位,她们传统的婚恋观和家庭观受到冲击,并促使美国妇女从传统女性向现代新女性形象转变。     

HIGH-TECHNOLOGY JOBS AND WORKER MOBILITY*

ABSTRACT. The premise of this paper is that one can discover much about the location determinants of high-technology industry by examining the location (migration) decision of workers with high-technology occupations. A model of the high-technology worker migration decision is developed that permits estimation of worker response to both personal and area characteristics, the latter chosen to mirror location factors often cited by high-technology firms as important for both the attraction and retention of their specialized work force. Logit estimates of this model between 1975 and 1980 are presented. The paper is concluded with a discussion of policy implications.     

Leisure time preferences and health-risk behavior of teenagers in the post-communist Central European countries

In Central and Eastern Europe (CE), alcohol consumption, smoking, and substance use have become a substantial problem mainly among young people as well as changes of their leisure time occupations. The paper uses the binary logistic regression to measure the association between a certain type of leisure occupations and health-risk behaviors to show which activities are the most prone to health-risk behaviors. The analysis shows one prominent result – the strong relation between health-risk behavior of teenagers and going out in the evenings in the CE countries. There are, however, some specific protective factors of teenage risk behavior; these could be used to focus anti-risk behavior campaigns aimed at teenagers.     

Does geographical location matter for ethnic wage gaps?

This paper analyzes ethnic wage gaps in Great Britain by comparing minorities to majority workers in the same local labor market and focuses on the variation of wage gaps across areas. As wage gaps vary across areas, using one single national measure may be misleading. Higher wage gaps across groups are associated with higher occupational segregation and ethnic diversity, while higher wage gaps within groups are associated with higher regional specialization and proportion of co-ethnics. Policies could help by improving job location and selection into occupations across groups.     

我国大学生就业城市选择意愿及其影响因素分析

引导大学生合理的就业流动是促进各类城市协调发展的有效途径。本文以不同类型的就业城市为研究对象,通过全国7个城市的1600余份调查问卷,利用多项Logit模型分析了我国大学生就业城市的选择意愿及影响因素。研究表明,大学生倾向以自身生源地为界限对劳动市场的地域进行二元划分,职业发展机遇和家庭因素在就业地的选择中最为重要,地区特质和自然生态环境的影响最弱,生源地和个人观念都与就业地的选择显著相关。在此基础上提出引导大学生就业流动的政策建议。     

Types and Patterns of Later-life Migration

This paper refines previous typologies of later-life mobility by explicitly evaluating the spatial migration patterns and household characteristics of retired American migrants. Migrants' lifecourse attributes (economic status, disability, presence of spouse), large-scale migration patterns (internal migration) and household characteristics (living arrangements, economic independence, residential independence) are used to identify three types of post-retirement mobility. The first type, amenity migration , has a distinctive spatial pattern that suggests a search for attractive climate and leisure amenities. The second type of mobility, assistance migration , can be traced to low income and the absence of a spouse in the household. It often results in residential and economic dependence – specifically, in co-residence with adult children or other labor force members. The third type of mobility, migration in response to severe disability and spouse absence , tends to result in nursing home residence. While amenity migration has long been associated with good health and favorable economic status, this analysis reveals that many disabled and lower-income retirees share the inmigration pattern typical of amenity migrants. In fact, amenity migration is the predominant type of mobility among those migrants with fewer than two unfavorable lifecourse attributes (low income, severe disability and spouse absence). Unlike previous lifecourse typologies, this study shows no clear relationship between moderate disability and co-residence with adult children. The results suggest that co-residence is primarily a strategy for reducing living costs rather than a means of coping with moderate disability.     

Migration and Changing Employment Status: A Hazard Function Analysis

The effects of different employment-status transitions on migration choices are considered from a search-theoretic perspective. A discrete-time hazard function for migration decisions is estimated on data for young males of rural origin in France. Employment-status transitions are handled as endogenous time-varying covariates. The model is estimated by distance of move. The results show that the long-distance migration hazard is significantly related to labor market variables, and, ceteris paribus, is highest among job-gainers compared to the other transition groups. The probability of contracted (long-distance) migration is found to be higher than that of speculative migration for unemployed workers, especially those who are low-educated. Evidence consistent with cumulative inertia is found for long-distance moves. Short-distance migration hazards are found to be unrelated to labor market variables (including employment-status transitions) and to display no systematic pattern of duration dependence.     

U.S. North-South labor migration and trade

The authors examine the roles of labor migration and commodity trade in the inter-regional equalization of the real wage rate in the United States. The emphasis is on North-South patterns. Theoretical models are first outlined and then tested using 1960 and 1970 census data and multi-regional input-output data for 1963. It is found that "the pattern of trade-embodied labor flow closely resembled the pattern of direct labor migration." It is also noted that "the South's hierarchical profile of relative plentifulness among age, education, and race-specific categories of work force tended to persist and remain fairly stable between 1960 and 1970.... One plausible hypothesis is that interregional commodity trade is accomplishing the bulk of the requisite adjustment in bringing about the real wage equalization."     

Urban bound migration and rural investment: the case of Mexico

The authors investigate an agriculturally based policy for improving rural incomes and for retarding the rural-urban migration flow. The production of agricultural goods is characterized by a production function in which output increases with increases in agricultural labor inputs, capital, public infrastructure, land, and technology. Differences among regions in agricultural technology will reflect regional differences in education, the institutionalized form of productive organization, and differences in access to technological information channeled through more technically advanced cities. To pick up the effect of out-migration changes in state agricultural labor supply and upon agricultural output, the state's agricultural out-migration rate is included together with the agricultural labor force. The gross migrant flow between 2 locations is hypothesized to depend upon a set of variables influencing the individual's perception of the economic rate of return to be gained by moving, a set of variables reflecting the individual's propensity to relocate, the labor displacement effects of investments, and the at risk population at 1 location available to migrate. It is also taken into account that individuals differ in their response to information about origin and destination wage differentials and that individuals may or may not perceive a new ecnomic gain from migration but may base the decision on other considerations. Results of a statistical analysis using data from the Mexican census of population for 1960 and 1970 are: 1) size of the rural labor force was negatively associated with agricultural wages, contrary to expectations; 2) small farmers have benefited from the expansion of irrigation in Mexico; and 3) higher urban wages attract migration, and higher growth rate of agricultural income retards rural-urban migration. With respect to the 1950-60 decade both agricultural income and rural out-migration impacts could have been substantial but both the impact on local urban growth and on the rate of in-migration to the primate city would have been slight.