Employment Deconcentration: A New Perspective on America's Postwar Urban Evolution

In this study we show that during the postwar era the United States experienced a decline in the share of urban employment accounted for by the relatively dense metropolitan areas and a corresponding rise in the share of relatively less dense ones. This trend, which we call employment deconcentration , is distinct from the other well–known regional trend, namely, the postwar movement of jobs and people from the frostbelt to the sunbelt. We also show that deconcentration has been accompanied by a similar trend within metropolitan areas, wherein employment share of the more dense sections of MSAs has declined and that of the less dense sections risen. We provide a general equilibrium model with density–driven congestion costs to suggest an explanation for employment deconcentration.     

A REGIONAL ECONOMY,LAND USE,AND TRANSPORTATION MODEL (RELU‐TRAN©): FORMULATION,ALGORITHM DESIGN,AND TESTING*

ABSTRACT RELU is a dynamic general equilibrium model of a metropolitan economy and its land use, derived by unifying in a theoretically valid way, models developed by one of the authors [ Anas (1982) , Anas–Arnott (1991, 1997) , Anas–Kim (1996) , Anas–Xu (1999) ]. RELU equilibrates floor space, land and labor markets, and the market for the products of industries, treating development (construction and demolition), spatial interindustry linkages, commuting, and discretionary travel. Mode choices and equilibrium congestion on the highway network are treated by unifying RELU with the TRAN algorithm of stochastic user equilibrium [ Anas–Kim (1990) ]. The RELU‐TRAN algorithm's performance for a stationary state is demonstrated for a prototype consisting of 4‐building, 4‐industry, 4‐labor‐type, 15‐land‐use‐zone, 68‐link‐highway‐network version of the Chicago MSA. The algorithm solves 656 equations in a special block‐recursive convergent procedure by iterations nested within loops and loops within cycles. Runs show excellent and smooth convergence from different starting points, so that the number of loops within successive cycles continually decreases. The tests also imply a numerically ascertained unique stationary equilibrium solution of the unified model for the calibrated parameters.     

Forecasting Structural Change With a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model

The sophistication of regional economic models has been demonstrated in numerous ways, most recently in the form of linking several modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric input-output model developed for the Chicago metropolitan region, derived input-output tables are extracted for the period 1975–2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.     

Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions*

Abstract. Recent natural and manmade disasters have had significant regional economic impacts. These effects have been muted, however, by the resilience of individual businesses and of regional markets, which refers to the inherent ability and adaptive responses that enable firms and regions to avoid potential losses. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis is a promising approach to disaster impact analysis because it is able to model the behavioral response to input shortages and changing market conditions. However, without further refinement, CGE models, as well as nearly all other economic models, reflect only “business‐as‐usual” conditions, when they are based on historical data. This paper advances the CGE analysis of major supply disruptions of critical inputs by: specifying operational definitions of individual business and regional macroeconomic resilience, linking production function parameters to various types of producer adaptations in emergencies, developing algorithms for recalibrating production functions to empirical or simulation data, and decomposing partial and general equilibrium responses. We illustrate some of these contributions in a case study of the sectoral and regional economic impacts of a disruption to the Portland Metropolitan Water System in the aftermath of a major earthquake.     

FIRST NATURE, SECOND NATURE, AND METROPOLITAN LOCATION

ABSTRACT. Economies of scale, transportation costs, and factor mobility can interact to produce agglomerations even in the absence of any pure external economies. This paper offers a monopolistic competition model of a city that serves an agricultural hinterland; unlike most analyses in location theory, the model is fully general equilibrium, but it has strong links to older concepts in geography, notably the idea of "market potential." The analysis shows that the forward and backward linkages that hold a population concentration together also allow that concentration to occur in a variety of possible sites—that is, there are multiple equilibria (indeed a continuum) for metropolitan location.     

GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS OF URBAN SPATIAL STRUCTURE. THE PORT-CITY MODEL RECONSIDERED*

In this paper, I consider a general equilibrium urban spatial structure in the setting of a port city by adopting Cobb-Douglas type functional forms for production and utility functions. Unlike previous port-city models, this one can generate four land-use patterns, that is, (1) monocentric, (2) completely integrated, (3) partially integrated (with integration at the center), and (4) partially integrated (with integration at the urban fringe) land-use patterns, and the last pattern suggests a new explanation of suburbanization of employment. The existence and uniqueness of each land-use pattern is proven in a simple constructive way.     

Functional specialization across space: a case study of the Canadian Electricity Industry, 1971–2001

This article examines the location of functions within the electricity sector in Canada from 1971 to 2001, using a centre‐periphery model. Power generation, distribution and retailing are generally carried out by multiestablishment crown corporations. Location patterns of different functions—management, scientific, production, etc.—are analyzed via the use of occupational groups. The spatial distribution of functions is found to be generally consistent with centre‐periphery relationships, with evidence of a growing functional specialization between large metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations. However, differences emerge depending on power generation sources: fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear, solar or biomass. The choice of a power generation source has consequences for local economies.     

DELINEATING METROPOLITAN AREAS USING LAND PRICES*

ABSTRACT This paper proposes an approach to delineating metropolitan areas that is more general than the standard approaches in three respects: First, it uses the fraction of land prices attributable to economies of urban agglomeration instead of using commuting intensities as an indicator of economic integration between metropolitan centers and their hinterlands. Second, it identifies metropolitan centers endogenously instead of determining them exogenously. And third, it takes metropolitan subcenters explicitly into account. An empirical illustration is used to show that the approach tends to delineate fewer but larger metropolitan areas in densely populated regions, and smaller metropolitan areas in sparsely populated regions.     

Bayesian Estimation of Regional Production for CGE Modeling

Abstract Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are often criticized for using restrictive functional forms and relying on external sources for parameter values in their calibration. CGE modelers argue that in many instances reliable econometric estimates of important model parameters are unavailable because they must be estimated using small numbers of time‐series observations. To address these criticisms, this paper uses a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of a translog production function in a regional computable general equilibrium model. Using priors from more reliable national estimates, and parameter restrictions required by neoclassical production theory, estimation is done by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. A stylized regional CGE model is then used to contrast policy responses of a Cobb‐Douglas specification with those from the estimated translog equation.     

NEGATIVE FACTORS IN THE USE OF THE BIOCLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE APSHERON PENINSULA

The author raise several significant problems involved in plans to establish resort functions on the Apsheron Peninsula, which together with its major metropolitan areas (Baku and Sumgait), serves as a center for oil refining and petrochemical production based on significant offshore oil drilling in the Caspian Sea. Among these problems are the fact that part of the area of greatest resort/recreational potential (northern coast) is also the area of highest SC₂ concentrations (reflecting chemical production in Sumgait), and that another promising location (southern coast) exhibits high levels of NO₂ (largely attributed to automobile traffic and power generation in Baku) (translated by Andrew R. Bond).     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

SOMETIMES CLOSE IS GOOD ENOUGH: THE VALUE OF NEARBY ENVIRONMENTAL AMENITIES*

ABSTRACT An extensive empirical literature exists, showing that variations in region‐specific amenities can account for persistent differences in real wages across regions. However, this literature has considered only amenities in the same location as the household. This paper argues that environmental amenities at some distance from but accessible to urban areas may lead to negative compensating wage differentials. We use a general equilibrium framework and data from the 1995 Current Population Survey to calculate implicit amenity prices based on measures of distance to environmental amenities. Our results suggest that amenities outside the metropolitan area do generate compensating wage differentials, as workers are willing to accept lower wages to live in accessible proximity to “nice” places. This implies that these places provide a positive externality to those communities that find them accessible. The estimated effects are quantitatively important, suggesting that these externalities should be taken into account in policy making.     

The Neoclassical Economic Base Multiplier

In this paper we derive an analytical expression for the regional neoclassical economic base marginal employment multiplier. The model that we adopt is a variant of the 1-2-3 general equilibrium model used in trade analysis. Its specific neoclassical characteristics are that laborsupply is a positive function of the real consumption wage and that factor and product demands are price sensitive. We calculate the employment multipliers associated with both a demand and supply stimulus to the basic sector. We demonstrate that it is possible for the marginal economic base multiplier to take any positive or negative value. However, the value of the marginalmultiplier is likely to approximate the value of the conventional average multiplier the closer production and utility functions are to Cobb-Douglas specifications and the more elastic is the labor supply function.     

Agglomeration Diseconomies of Traffic Congestion and Agglomeration Economies of Interaction in the Information-Oriented City

This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of land, labor, and transportation markets in an information-oriented city with traffic congestion of commuting and agglomeration economies of interaction. We derive the equilibria by numerical computations using specific utility, production, and congestion functions. The laissez-faire equilibrium is compared with the optimum. In contrast with the results of many previous papers, at the optimum the CBD becomes compact and the city more suburbanized than the laissez-faire equilibrium. We also analyze the effects of a Pigouvian tax system and subsidies on the spatial structure in the city.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

Central Cities as Engines of Metropolitan Area Growth*

The paper analyzes the role of central cities as engines of economic growth in their metropolitan area. We wonder if there are increasing returns to central city growth at the metropolitan level arising from the positive externalities associated with the unique features of central cities. To answer this question we analyze the causality between the economic growth of Spanish central cities and the growth of the other jurisdictions belonging to their metropolitan area (i.e., the suburbs). The analysis uses population and economic activity data for a sample of 28 Spanish metropolitan areas during 35 years. We use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework to estimate long‐run equilibrium relationships between the growth of central cities and their suburbs. The combination of panel data and a VECM is an innovative approach that is still being developed in econometrics. The results suggest that central city growth has a long‐run positive effect on the growth of the suburbs. We also inquire as to whether or not this positive effect depends on the size of the central city. The results suggest that the effect is much higher in the case of the largest cities, but that it is also important in the case of the smaller ones.     

试论城市景观生态建设问题——以兰州市南北两山生态建设为例

本文阐述了景观生态学在城市景观生态建设中的应用。认为在城市景观生态建设中不仅要关注城市生态平衡,还要在生态建设规划中注重城市居民休憩园地(如城市森林公园、园林公园)建设,以及都市农业的协调发展等问题。     

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SEOUL'S JOB DECENTRALIZATION: A METROPOLITAN INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS

ABSTRACT.  This study analyzes the economic impacts of job decentralization with the aid of the Seoul metropolitan input–output model (SMIO) for the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). Two main features can be highlighted: modeling perspective and simulation results. The SMIO is a pioneering work in the application of this type of metropolitan input–output analysis to the real world by taking into account the spatial and industrial relationships of multiplier effects simultaneously within a metropolitan economic system. The simulation results show that job decentralization results in a serious spatial and industrial restructuring of the metropolitan economy, and that the SMA gains significant economic benefits from job decentralization, no matter where the job expansion takes place within the metropolitan region. Interesting to find is that job decentralization generates positive induced effects for all scenarios through a virtuous circle of production, income formation, and consumption, given suburbanized population, which is one of the economic reasons why jobs follow people.     

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GENERAL SPATIAL PRICE EQUILIBRIA

ABSTRACT. General spatial price equilibrium models are formulated as variational inequalities. Sensitivity analysis results recently developed for variational inequalities are reviewed which give conditions for existence and equations for calculating the derivatives of solution variables with respect to perturbation parameters. These results are applied to the variational inequality formulations of general spatial price equilibria, and derivatives of supplies, demands, flows, and prices with respect to perturbations of supply functions, demand functions, and transportation-cost functions are calculated.     

AMENITIES VERSUS LABOR MARKET OPPORTUNITIES: CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL DISTANCE TO MOVE*

ABSTRACT. A recent debate in the regional economics literature has focused attention on the motivation behind an individual's decision to migrate. Human-capital migration models emphasize labor market disequilibria whereas alternative (hedonic) migration models stress households’altered demand for nontraded goods. In this paper, we test the relative importance of these two possible motivations for moving between metropolitan areas. We use an intercity hedonic model to decompose wages into equilibrium and disequilibrium components. We then compare the separate influences of amenities and the disequilibrium component of wages on the distance moved between two metropolitan areas. Our findings indicate that both economic factors and amenity differentials are significant factors in explaining regional migration.