Scarcity and prosperity in postwar childbearing: explorations from a life course perspective

An investigation of the role of Depression scarcity and subsequent prosperity on the postwar baby boom using two longitudinal cohorts from the 1920s defined by birth. The study into account variability in Depression experiences and alternative life pathways (ascent, decline and stability across generations) in attempting to explain linkages between the Depression and postwar fertility. Easterlin's relative income theory is explored and found to be an insufficient model for explaining the observed demographic behavior. It fails to take variability in Depression experience and life pathways into account, whereas fertility records of cohort members showed striking differences according to those variables. By relating 2 sets of variations, 1) Depression experience, and 2) subsequent adult status and accomplishments during a period of affluence and economic growth, circumstances were identified that enhanced different imprints of a Depression childhood, the bearing of more children, and fertility constraint. The interdependence of social change and life course is underscored by this study.     

A Shift‐Share Method for the Analysis of Regional Fertility Change: An Application to the Decline in Childbearing in Italy, 1952–1991

This paper applies shift‐share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952–1991. During this post–World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.     

The changing pattern of urban fertility in Eastern Australia 1966-1976

This paper uses unpublished data from official sources to analyze variations in urban marital and overall fertility in Eastern Australia between 1966-71 and between 1971-76. It further attempts to assess the relevance of the convergence thesis to changing fertility patterns and to evaluate the utility of an ecologic analysis of interurban fertility differences. The data indicate that urban fertility levels declined dramatically in 1966-76 and interurban differentials were substantially reduced. By 1976, the 2-child family norm had been widely adopted throughout Australia, regardless of region, community size, or sociocultural composition. Examination of marital fertility trends suggests that, although different areas had different elasticities of response to cyclical fertility movements in the 1960s, the magnitude of these differences was insufficient to do more than slow the pace of the decline while increasing the pace of interarea differential convergence. Declines in both proportions married and marital fertility after 1971 were reflected in declining overall fertility in all urban areas in Eastern Australia. During this period, however, divergence replaced the convergence evident in the 1960s. The present high level of uniformity in both marital and overall fertility rates throughout the study area about mean levels means that the regionally variable effects of future cyclical changes in fertility levels may be difficult to identify. As a result, detailed analyses at the individual/behavioral level that focus specifically on attitudes, values, and family size preferences may be more appropriate for understanding of post-transitional demographic change than studies based on spatial analyses at the local level.     

Foreign countries: The development of ethnoarchaeology in sub-Saharan Africa

Ethnoarchaeological research in sub-Saharan Africa began as a distinct study in the late 1960s and early 1970s and developed rather differently in different areas of the continent. This variability is related to a number of research circumstances in these regions: the presence of an important francophone archaeological tradition in West Africa, palaeoanthropological studies that have taken place in East and southern Africa over the last 60 years, and a concentration upon the study of forager groups in different parts of the continent. Ethnoarchaeology in West Africa, in East and Central Africa, and in southern Africa are examined in turn, with particular attention paid to the influence of research lineages in each region and to changes in methodologies and theoretical perspectives through time.     

From Demographic Transition to Fertility Boom and Bust: Iran in the 1980s and 1990s

Although it is widely recognized that demographic transition is not an uninterrupted process, demographers and population economists have treated short‐term swings in fertility with a measure of curiosity. Iran's experience of population growth after the Revolution in 1979 points to a double paradox of a steep and unprecedented surge in population growth in the 1980s followed by a swift restoration of fertility decline in the 1990s. Both periods have been characterized by extensive socio‐economic and institutional changes combined with radical and far‐reaching sways in Iran's post‐revolutionary population policy. This article applies standardized decomposition analysis to separate out and quantify the proximate components of change in the crude birth rate during these two fertility ‘boom’ and ‘bust’ phases. The aim is to ascertain to what extent structural/demographic or behavioural factors can explain the dynamics of change in fertility and population growth in Iran since the late 1970s. Our findings point to a hitherto neglected role of population momentum in initiating the ‘Islamic baby boom’ as well as a more limited role for population policy in explaining the genesis(rather than the momentum) of both boom and bust phases.     

Intergenerational transmission of reproductive behavior during the demographic transition

New evidence from the Utah Population Database (UPDP) reveals that at the onset of the fertility transition, reproductive behavior was transmitted across generations - between women and their mothers, as well as between women and their husbands' family of origin. Age at marriage, age at last birth, and the number of children ever born are positively correlated in the data, most strongly among first-born daughters and among cohorts born later in the fertility transition. Intergenerational ties, including the presence of mothers and mothers-in-law, influenced the hazard of progressing to a next birth. The findings suggest that the practice of parity-dependent marital fertility control and inter-birth spacing behavior derived, in part, from the previous generation and that the potential for mothers and mothers-in-law to help in the rearing of children encouraged higher marital fertility.     

Estimating Rapidity of Change in Complex Urban Systems: A Multidimensional,Local‐Scale Approach

This study illustrates an exploratory approach based on a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) to estimate rapidity of change in complex urban systems, based on “fast” and “slow” variables. The proposed methodology was applied to 18 socioeconomic indicators of long‐term (1960–2010) transformations in 115 municipalities of Athens’ metropolitan area (Greece), including demography, land‐use/planning, and urban form and functions. Athens was regarded as a dynamic urban area with diversified structures and functions at the local scale, expanding through a self‐organized pattern rather than a centralized planning strategy. Athens’ urban system was described using nine supplementary (topographic and territorial) variables and 30 independent indicators assessing the local context in recent times. Exploratory data analysis found an increasing connectedness and redundancy among socioeconomic indicators during the phase of largest urban expansion (1960–1990). Only the rate of population growth was classified as a “fast” variable for all five decades investigated. The overall rapidity of change was higher in 1960–1970, 1980–1990, and 2000–2010, decades that coincided with specific phases of urban expansion driven by migration inflow, second‐home suburbanization, and Olympic games, respectively. Rapidity of change was high for functional indicators during all five decades studied, while demography indicators changed more rapidly in the first three decades and land‐use/planning indicators in the last two decades. Rapidity of change was highest in peri‐urban municipalities with a highly diversified economic structure dominated by industry. Our methodology provides a comprehensive overview of the transformations of a complex urban system, quantifying low‐level indicators that are rarely assessed in the mainstream literature on urban studies. These results may contribute to design policies addressing complexity and promoting resilience in expanding metropolitan areas.     

A Potential Case of Social Bankruptcy: States' AFDC Payments and Their Teen Birth Rates

Based on a pooled time series analysis that covers a 30-year period at five different time points—1960, 1970, 1980, 1985, and 1990—this research examines the relationship between states' Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) payments and teen birth rates. Drawing on rational choice theories, we expected the effects of states' AFDC payments on their teen birth rates to be positive, taking into account states' divorce rates, population change rates, unemployment rates, racial composition, and poverty rates. The effects of states'AFDC payments were significant in a negative direction in Model 1, a random effects model; they also were significant in a negative direction in Model 2 when we controlled for the effects of year; however, when we controlled for the effects of year and state in Model 3, they were not significant. The findings do not support assumptions regarding the incentive effects of welfare that underlie rational choice theories in states where teen birth rates are higher. If anything, teen birth rates are higher in states where AFDC payments are lower. Implications for policy and further research are discussed in relation to the positive effects of states' poverty and population change rates on the state teen birth rate problem.     

Max Mara and the origins of Italian ready‐to‐wear

This article charts the establishment and expansion of the ready‐to‐wear Max Mara label before the birth of the Max Mara group in 1967. Until recently, little consideration has been given to the evolution of Italian fashion, and few histories of dress or Italian culture even mention its presence before the 1970s. Still fewer acknowledge the crucial emergence of fashionable ready‐to‐wear in Italy in the 1960s, in which Max Mara played a key role, and which anticipated the international success of ‘Italian style’ in the 1970s and 1980s.     

Fertility decline in rural China: a comparative analysis

Many models have been proposed to explain both the rapidity of China's fertility decline after the 1960s and the differential timing of the decline in different places. In particular, scholars argue over whether deliberate policies of fertility control, institutional changes, or general modernization factors contribute most to changes in fertility behavior. Here the authors adopt an ethnographically grounded behavioral-institutional approach to analyze qualitative and quantitative data from three different rural settings: Xiaoshan County in Zhejiang (East China), Ci County in Hebei, (North China), and Yingde County in Guangdong (South China). The authors show that no one set of factors explain differential timing by a combination of differences in social-cultural environments (e.g. spread of education, reproductive ideologies, and gender relations) and politico-economic conditions (e.g. economic development, birth planning campaigns, and collective systems of labor organization) during the early phases of the fertility decline.     

‘How Time Flies’: Celebrating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in the 1960s

Recent histories of human rights have identified the 1970s as the most decisive epoch in the birth of the modern rights era. These works have tended toward a parenthetic dismissal of the period 1948–70 as years of interregnum, of marginal impact to the ‘breakthrough’ moment which followed. This article argues for a more complex periodisation, and reclaims the importance of the 1960s. Far from an undifferentiated abyss, the two decades between the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) and the 1968 International Human Rights Year held their own shifts, integral to the evolution of modern human rights. A crucial transition in the status of the UDHR occurred across the mid-1960s, roughly aligned with the terminal years of liberal post-colonialism. Through a comparison of two hitherto neglected events in the history of human rights, the fifteenth and twentieth anniversary commemorations of the UDHR, in December 1963 and 1968, this article traces the trajectory of that transition. These commemorations, concentrated moments of explicit reflection on the meaning of human rights, encapsulated the gulf between the early and the late 1960s. In the space of five years, any vestigial consensus on the vision enunciated in 1948 was obliterated.     

Intergenerational comparison of education attainment and implications for empowerment of women in rural Kenya

An intergenerational comparison of education attainment and empowerment across two generations of Kenyan rural women population was undertaken. The study employed a longitudinal analysis of quantitative data derived from the Demographic and Health Survey databases. The survey captures relevant demographic background on the two generations of women. The study undertakes to compare the education attainment and empowerment outcome measures of socioeconomic status, household size, and fertility rates between the two cohorts of women. It also contrasts the experience of the women who accessed education in the era characterized by the welfare state (1989 cohort) with those who came of age in the austerity years of neoliberalism (2008/2009 cohort). The research established that the majority of women in both cohorts had limited access to education. However, women who accessed more education were more likely to show characteristics of empowered individuals – they had smaller households, fewer children, and were relatively wealthier. The results demonstrate that meaningful empowerment through education can only be realized if more women access levels of education beyond the basic education focus that is dominant in international development discourse.     

Long-term health consequences of prenatal exposure to the Korean War

This paper investigates how in-utero exposure to the Korean War (1950–1953) affected health outcomes at old age. The probabilities of suffering from a particular type of functional limitation as well as having any disability were significantly higher in 2010 among the individuals born in 1951, who were in utero during the worst time of the war. The results of difference-in-difference estimations suggest that the magnitude of the adverse 1951 cohort effect on health is significantly larger for individuals whose places of birth were more seriously devastated by the war. Available evidence supports the hypothesis that the adverse long-term effects of in-utero exposure to the Korean War found in this study are unlikely driven by selection bias: the subjects of the 1951 birth cohort were not negatively selected in terms of parental characteristics in 1960.     

About time: age,period, and cohort effects on support for Quebec sovereignty

Can age, period and cohort effects help explain support for Quebec sovereignty? Previous work on this question has focused mostly on the effects of age and cohort. We contribute to this debate by adding a period perspective. As such, our study is the first to investigate the impact of age, cohort and period effects in a single study of opinion towards sovereignty in Quebec. We take advantage of an original dataset that includes survey data collected between 1985 and 2012. We use these data to examine the impact of age, birth year and survey year on support for this constitutional option among francophone Quebeckers. Our results are in line with previous work: we show that younger Quebeckers are more likely to support sovereignty, and that some cohorts – namely, respondents born between 1945 and 1959 – are also more likely to favour this option. Perhaps more surprisingly, we find that specific events are comparatively the most important factor to explain fluctuations in Quebeckers' attitudes towards sovereignty.     

Economic models and having children: some evidence from Kwahu,Ghana

This discussion outlines briefly some of the main features of economic models of rational decision making with regard to fertility which focus on the perceived costs and benefits of parenthood, noting the findings of several Ghanaian studies which have tried to link changing patterns of costs and benefits involved in kin and conjugal family ties with changes in fertility and parental role expectations. Procreation and its context in a rural Kwahu town of southern Ghana in the early 1970s is then described and illustration is included of how a "cost benefit" analysis of pregnancy termination and child bearing in this society illuminates why, although induced abortion rates appeared high, there was little noticeable shift to much lower fertility values or achievements than those traditionally admired. The data on the families of Ghanaian salary earners indicated the usefulness of an economic approach, with attention given to the allocation of scarce resources through the essentially rational choices of individual parents, continually trying to avoid or alleviate the effects of role strain and conflict. They also illustrate the need for household economists' models to take more sophisticated account of variables such as the openness or closure of the conjugal family in various areas of its operation and the need to treat the degrees of jointness of the conjugal role relationship in different areas as crucial variables. The town of the research is a typical "home town," which means that it constitutes the base from which people depart, either to an urban center where they take up trading or look for other employment, or to a farming settlement where they may spend from a few months to several years clearing new land or harvesting crops. The data from Kwahu reveal that the people are struggling to improve their lot in an uncertain and changing context in which lineage support is not guaranteed, marriage is unstable and children often leave their parents at an early age, and in which educational qualifications and the ability to be mobile are critical in the search for incomes and better jobs. Early childbearing is a hindrance and is avoided where possible though it is not an impassable barrier to townward migration and upward mobility. The costs of later childbearing are frequently shelved and passed on to others, especially the child's mothers. Consequently, considerable inertia associated with poverty and insecurity remains with regard to decisions to regulate fertility. Knowledge and availability of contraceptives are restricted.     

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic change in nonmetropolitan areas

A simultaneous equations model of migration and economic growth in nonmetropolitan regions of the United States is estimated using data for 1960-1970. The dependent variables considered include in-migration, out-migration, growth in employment, and growth in income. The findings indicate that there is a definite link between the patterns of economic and demographic change in nonmetropolitan areas but that it differs in important respects from that which has been observed in metropolitan areas.     

Birth control,population control,and family planning: an overview

This overview of the US birth control movement reflects on the emergence of family planning policy due to the efforts of Margaret Sanger, feminists, and the civil rights movement, the eugenics motive to limit "deviant" populations, and the population control movement, which aims to solve social and economic problems through fertility control. Population control moved through three stages: from the cause of "voluntary motherhood" to advance suffrage and women's political and social status, to the concept of "birth control" promoted by socialist feminists to help empower women and the working class, to, from 1920 on, a liberal movement for civil rights and population control. Physicians such as Dr. Robert Latou Dickinson legitimized the movement in the formation of the Committee on Maternal Health in 1925, but the movement remained divided until 1939, when Sanger's group merged with the American Birth Control League, the predecessor of the present Planned Parenthood Federation of America. A key legal decision in 1939 in the United States v. One Package amended the Comstock Act and allowed for the distribution of birth control devices by mail to physicians. Sanger, after a brief retirement, formed the International Planned Parenthood Federation and supported research into the pill. Eugenicists through the Committee on Maternal Health supported Christopher Tietze and others developing the pill. Final constitutional access to contraception based on the right to privacy was granted in Griswold v. Connecticut. The ruling in Eisenstadt v. Baird in 1972 extended this right to unmarried persons. The right to privacy was further extended in the Roe v. Wade decision in 1973 on legal abortion. The argument for improving the quality of the population remained from the formation of the Population Reference Bureau in 1929 through the 1960s. Under the leadership of Rockefeller, population control was defined as justified on a scientific and humanitarian basis. US government support for national and international family planning proceeded slowly through the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. Congress during 1967-70 enacted strong legislation in support of national and international family planning. The Bucharest conference in 1974 highlighted the inadequacies of international population control that deemphasized economic development. Polarization and divisiveness on population policy persists.     

FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s—an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.     

FORCED LABOUR AND RISING FERTILITY IN COLONIAL INDONESIA

This paper presents empirical evidence to support the labour demand theory of rising reproductive fertility in colonial Indonesia. According to this theory, birth rates in nineteenth-century Java rose as a direct result of the labour burden imposed upon women and their children by the Cultivation System of compulsory labour services. The theory was conceived in the 1970s as a reaction against the assumption that rapid population growth in colonial Indonesia must have reflected improvements in economic and health conditions under Dutch rule. The difficulty of testing the labour demand theory empirically, together with its counterintuitive quality and its ideological origins, led it to be sceptically received. However, newly-assembled statistical data from Minahasa—one of the few areas outside Java where compulsory cultivation services were introduced in the nineteenth century—suggest that the theory is in fact correct. The existence of a positive link between labour demand and fertility helps explain not only the paradox of population growth without rapid economic growth or public health improvements in nineteenth-century Java, but also the ‘involutionary’ cycle of agricultural intensification, population growth and impoverishment which seems to be a recurrent feature of Southeast Asian history.     

VARYING EFFECT OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS AMONG MIGRANT AND INDIGENOUS FEMALES IN THE TRANSITIONAL AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF GHANA

The transitional agro‐ecological zone of Ghana, located between the richly endowed south and the impoverished north, has attracted seasonal and permanent farm migrants, mainly from northern Ghana, who now live side by side with the indigenous people. While migrants have higher numbers of Muslims, indigenous people are mainly Christians. Although the majority of the migrants live in migrant quarters with less favourable socio‐economic conditions, they are more successful farmers and therefore wealthier. The objectives are to examine the varying effect of fertility determinants among migrants and indigenous females. This paper uses data collected in 2002 among 194 females aged 15 to 49 years. Multiple regression models are used to assess fertility determinants. Results show that although migrant households were wealthier, migrant females were more traditional. They had more children living in foster care, and a lower proportion of them approved of men participating in household activities. In addition, they were less well educated, recorded higher infant mortality, gave birth earlier and used less contraception. Furthermore, while a female's migration status is statistically significant so far as non‐proximate determinants of fertility are concerned, the same variable is not significant with respect to proximate determinants. In addition, a married female migrant would on average have almost one more child compared to her indigenous counterpart, and migrant females who had experienced the loss of a child would on average have 2.5 more children compared to their indigenous counterparts. Finally, more affluent migrant females have 0.08 fewer children compared to their indigenous counterpart.