Shale gas and the revival of American power: debunking decline?

The spectre of American decline is once again animating both observers and practitioners of US foreign policy. The global financial crisis, a faltering American economy and continued costly and controversial military engagements overseas have been presented as conclusive proof that American foreign policy will soon lack the resources needed to sustain its previous international hegemony. Arguments of domestic weakness have been linked to analyses of the economic vitality of America's competitors to demonstrate a seemingly watertight case for relative decline. The inexorable rise of China has been presented from various quarters as evidence that the American era will soon be drawing to a close. Yet, such declinist arguments continue to suffer from fundamental weaknesses, overestimating the likely future strength of America's rivals while concurrently downplaying the capacity of the US to rejuvenate its economy and thus revivify its liberal universalist creed. The most interesting development in this regard has been the sudden resurgence of the US energy sector. Written off less than a decade ago as being in terminal decline, the American oil and gas industry has staged a remarkable recovery. Vast reserves of shale gas and accompanying tight oil offer the potential to aid the revival of the American economy, with some forecasts pointing to US energy self‐sufficiency within two decades. Notions of US relative decline may yet prove premature. The geopolitical impact of American energy self‐sufficiency is likely to be very significant, making an important contribution to a reversal of the US trade deficit, a revival of America's industrial base, and the possibility of a corresponding relative decline in power for conventional fossil fuel exporters.     

Engagement or empire? American power and the international order

Three recent surveys of American foreign relations lie at the intersection of topical academic and policy debates. Robert Lieber's Eagle rules? makes a case for American primacy as a precondition for global stability, and in so doing reflects an agenda for US foreign policy that is broadly associated with the current Bush administration. By contrast, Joseph Nye's The paradox of American power argues against US unilateralism, and may be read as an implicit critique of the apparent recent shift in American strategy. Nevertheless, both Lieber and Nye make a case for extensive American engagement with the world as a basis for international stability. By contrast, Chalmers Johnson's Blowback views America's global ‘engagement’ as a thinly disguised diplomatic veil for imperialism. Although they make very different arguments, these three books are usefully considered together. Nye's stress on the importance of soft power, multilateral diplomacy and wider structural changes in the nature of world politics is a useful corrective to Lieber's emphasis on US primacy. But Johnson is right to criticize the excessive and ultimately counter‐productive level of military involvement of the United States around the world. In the absence of a more effective global balance of power, the preconditions for a robust system of international diplomacy as well as the management of globalization will not be satisfied.     

Executive diplomacy: multilateralism, unilateralism and managing American power

The clash between unilateralists and multilateralists dominates contemporary debate, with many assuming that American foreign policy must result from nothing more or less than a tug of war between the two. The practicalities of diplomacy at a juncture of competing viewpoints on American power reveal, however, that this old dichotomy simply has lost steam as a policy–making engine. Springing straight from today's front pages and centred in the transatlantic conversation over America's role in the world, this article throws into question how America and its allies grapple for international initiative. Managing American power demands a new concept—anchored as much in the social arena of consensus formation described by Jürgen Habermas as in the experience of corporate officers leading a large business. The article argues that the real world challenges facing America as unrivalled superpower have strained the old approach, and asks if managing American influence has to continue as an either/or choice between ‘going it alone’ or waiting for others to recognize new threats. Or might it instead transform into a quest for integrating key constituencies behind practical action?     

Last charge of the knights? Iraq,Afghanistan and the special relationship

At the heart of the ‘special relationship’ ideology, there is supposed to be a grand bargain. In exchange for paying the ‘blood price’ as America's ally, Britain will be rewarded with exceptional influence over American foreign policy and its strategic behaviour. Soldiers and statesman continue to articulate this idea. Since 9/11, the notion of Britain playing ‘Greece’ to America's ‘Rome’ gained new life thanks to Anglophiles on both sides of the Atlantic. One potent version of this ideology was that the more seasoned British would teach Americans how to fight ‘small wars’ in Iraq and Afghanistan, thereby bolstering their role as tutor to the superpower. Britain does derive benefits from the Anglo‐American alliance and has made momentous contributions to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Yet British solidarity and sacrifices have not purchased special influence in Washington. This is partly due to Atlanticist ideology, which sets Britain unrealistic standards by which it is judged, and partly because the notion of ‘special influence’ is misleading as it loses sight of the complexities of American policy‐making. The overall result of expeditionary wars has been to strain British credibility in American eyes and to display its lack of consistent influence both over high policy and the design and execution of US military campaigns. While there may be good arguments in favour of the UK continuing its efforts in Afghanistan, the notion that the war fortifies Britain's vicarious world status is a dangerous illusion that leads to repeated overstretch and disappointment. Now that Britain is in the foothills of a strategic defence review, it is important that the British abandon this false consciousness.     

Asia's century and the problem of Japan's centrality

Japan has long been regarded as a central component of America's grand strategy in Asia. Scholars and practitioners assume this situation will persist in the face of China's rise and, indeed, that a more ‘normal’ Japan can and should take on an increasingly central role in US‐led strategies to manage this power transition. This article challenges those assumptions by arguing that they are, paradoxically, being made at a time when Japan's economic and strategic weight in Asian security is gradually diminishing. The article documents Japan's economic and demographic challenges and their strategic ramifications. It considers what role Japan might play in an evolving security order where China and the US emerge as Asia's two dominant powers by a significant margin. Whether the US–China relationship is ultimately one of strategic competition or accommodation, it is argued that Japan's continued centrality in America's Asian grand strategy threatens to become increasingly problematic. It is posited that the best hope for circumventing this problem and its potentially destabilizing consequences lies in the nurturing of a nascent ‘shadow condominium’ comprising the US and China, with Japan as a ‘marginal weight’ on the US side of that arrangement.     

George W. Bush,Barack Obama and the future of US global leadership

The foreign policy world views of George W. Bush and Barack Obama differ dramatically. Bush made terrorism the focal point of his foreign policy and dismissed the idea that either allies or international institutions should constrain America's freedom of action. Obama sees terrorism as one of many transnational problems that require the cooperation of other countries to combat and, as a result, the United States must invest more in diplomatic efforts to build partnerships. Despite these differences, both presidents share one common conviction: that other countries long for US leadership. Bush believed that friends and allies would eventually rally to the side of the United States, even if they bristled at its actions, because they shared America's goals and had faith in its motives. Obama believed that a United States that listened more to others, stressed common interests and favored multinational action would command followers. In practice, however, both visions of American global leadership faltered. Bush discovered that many countries rejected his style of leadership as well as his strategies. Obama discovered that in a globalized world, where power has been more widely dispersed, many countries are not looking to Washington for direction. The future success of US foreign policy depends on the ability of policy‐makers to recognize and adapt to a changing geopolitical environment in which the US remains the most significant military, diplomatic and economic power but finds it, nonetheless, increasingly difficult to drive the global agenda.     

Book reviews

Books reviewed in this article: International law and organization International organizations as law‐makers. By José E. Alvarez International human rights lexicon. By Susan Marks and Andrew Clapham America's failing empire: US foreign relations since the Cold War. By Warren I. Cohen Conflict, security and armed forces The new wars. By Herfried Münkler The new western way of war. By Martin Shaw Critical security studies and world politics. Edited by Ken Booth Politics, democracy and social affairs Gulliver unbound: America's imperial temptation and the war in Iraq. By Stanley Hoffman and Frédéric Bozo The limits of global governance. By Jim Whitman Une société internationale en mutation: quels acteurs pour une nouvelle gouvernance? Edited by Laurence Boisson de Chazournes and Rostane Mehdi First democracy: the challenge of an ancient idea. By Paul Woodruff The opportunity: America's moment to alter history's course. By Richard N. Haass Setting the people free: the story of democracy. By John Dunn Ethnicity and cultural politics Landscapes of the jihad: militancy, morality, modernity. By Faisal Devji Globalization and the Muslim world: culture, religion, and modernity. Edited by Birgit Schaebler and Leif Stenberg Foreign territory: the internationalization of EU asylum policy. By Oxfam Political economy, economics and development Local players in global games: the strategic constitution of a multinational corporation. By Peer Hull Kristensen and Jonathan Zeitlin Multinationals and global capitalism: from the nineteenth to the twenty‐first century Leviathans: multinational corporations and the new global history. Edited by Alfred D. Chandler, Jr and Bruce Mazlish The new masters of capital: American bond rating agencies and the politics of creditworthiness. By Timothy J. Sinclair Labour in a global world: case studies from the white goods industry in Africa, South America, East Asia and Europe. By Theo Nichols and Surhan Cam Energy and environment The new accountability: environmental responsibility across borders. By Michael R. Mason History Poisoned peace: 1945 the war that never ended. By Gregor Dallas Britain, the Six‐day War and its aftermath. By Frank Brenchley In the midst of events: the Foreign Office diaries and papers of Kenneth Younger, February 1950–October 1951. By Geoffrey Warner The Nixon administration and the death of Allende's Chile: a case of assisted suicide. By Jonathan Haslam Michael of Romania: the king and the country. By Ivor Porter Europe The enlargement of the European Union and NATO: ordering from the menu in Central Europe. By Wade Jacoby International relations and the European Union. Edited by Christopher Hill and Michael Smith The politics of exclusion: institutions and immigration policy in contemporary Germany. By Simon Green Europe and the recognition of new states in Yugoslavia. By Richard Caplan Russia and Eurasia Kazakhstan: power and the elite. By Sally N. Cummings Radical Islam in Central Asia: between pen and rifle. By Vitaly V. Naumkin Sub‐Saharan Africa Darfur: the ambiguous genocide. By Gérard Prunier Darfur: a short history of a long war. By Julie Flint and Alex de Waal Institutions and ethnic politics in Africa. By Daniel Posner Civil militia: Africa's intractable security menace? Edited by David J. Francis The African Union: pan‐Africanism, peacebuilding and development. By Timothy Murithi Politics in francophone Africa. By Victor T. Le Vine Asia and Pacific America's miracle man in Vietnam. By Seth Jacobs North America Addicted to oil: America's relentless drive for energy security. By Ian Rutledge America: sovereign defender or cowboy nation? Edited by Vladimir Shlapentokh, Joshua Woods and Eric Shiraev Devastating society: the neo‐conservative assault on democracy and justice. Edited by Bernd Hamm Latin America and Caribbean The third wave of Latin American democratization: advances and setbacks. Edited by Frances Hagopian and Scott P. Mainwaring Institutional reforms: the case of Colombia. Edited by Alberto Alesina Hugo Chávez and the Bolivarian revolution. By Richard Gott     

The limits to optimism: Australia and the rise of China

The Australian government optimistically expects that China's rise can be easily managed. They predict US–China relations will be cooperative, and reject concerns that Australia may face hard choices between them. This optimism seems to be based on the view that as China grows it will become increasingly integrated into a US-led global system. That overestimates America's power, and underestimates China's ambitions. The best we can hope for instead is that China and the US will cooperate in a concert of power, but the US will be very reluctant to make the necessary concessions to China for that to happen. So there is a real risk of even worse outcomes: Chinese primacy, sustained US–China hostility, or war. Australia therefore needs to try to persuade America to work with China in building a new ‘Concert of Asia’.     

Book reviews

Books reviewed in this issue. International Relations theory Hegemony in international society. The problem of harm in world politics: theoretical investigations. The invention of International Relations theory: Realism, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the 1954 conference on theory. International law, human rights and ethics The last utopia: human rights in history. International law, security and ethics: policy challenges in the post‐9/11 world. International organization and foreign policy Humanitarianism contested: where angels fear to tread. Humanitarian intervention: a history. The future of power. A contest for supremacy: China, America, and the struggle for mastery in Asia. Conflict, security and defence Military Orientalism: eastern war through western eyes. Governance, civil society and cultural politics Women under Islam: gender, justice and the politics of Islamic law. Political economy, economics and development Global poverty: how global governance is failing the poor. Global governance, poverty and inequality. Energy, resources and environment China, oil and global politics. China's energy relations with the developing world. The Routledge handbook of energy security. Food security. History Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the most dangerous place on earth. Who killed Hammarskjöld? The UN, the Cold War and white supremacy in Africa. Documents on British policy overseas, series I, volume IX: The Nordic countries: from war to Cold War, 1944–1951. All hell let loose: the world at war 1939–45. Europe The US–EU security relationship: the tensions between a European and a global agenda. Cultures of border control: Schengen and the evolution of European frontiers. Immigration and conflict in Europe. Les diplomates: derrière la façade des ambassades de France. Civic and uncivic values: Serbia in the post‐Milosevic era. Russia and Eurasia Popular support for an undemocratic regime: the changing views of Russians. Middle East and North Africa The Arab revolution: ten lessons from the democratic uprising. Iran, the Green Movement and the USA: the fox and the paradox. The other side of the mirror: an American travels through Syria. Sub‐Saharan Africa Season of rains: Africa in the world. Inventing Africa: history, archaeology and ideas. South Africa pushed to the limit: the political economy of change. Oil and insurgency in the Niger Delta: managing the complex politics of petroviolence. Consuming the Congo: war and conflict minerals in the world's deadliest place. South Asia Does the elephant dance? Contemporary Indian foreign policy. Religion, caste and politics in India. Secularizing Islamists? Jama'at‐e‐Islami and Jama'at‐ud‐Da'wa in urban Pakistan. The wrong war: grit, strategy, and the way out of Afghanistan. East Asia and Pacific Where China meets India: Burma and the new crossroads of Asia. China in 2020: a new type of superpower. From Mao to market: China reconfigured. Latin America and Caribbean The rise of Evo Morales and the MAS. From rebellion to reform in Bolivia: class struggle, indigenous liberation, and the politics of Evo Morales. Evo Morales and the Movimiento al Socialismo in Bolivia: the first term in context, 2006–2010. Latin America and global capitalism: a critical globalization perspective. Latin American foreign policies: between ideology and pragmatism.     

Europe and the new balance of global order

The European Union has become an important shaping factor in international relations, but how and under what conditions it can exercise influence and contribute constructively to global order are still not well analysed. In fact, the EU's contribution may resemble more that of a force in physics than of a great power in the traditional sense of international relations (which the EU is not, and will not become in the near future), and its influence depends probably more on what the EU represents and how well it manages its own realm, rather than on what it can do externally. In this sense, European influence in international relations presently benefits from past achievements, and may therefore have peaked if the twin challenges of enlargement and national structural deficiencies are not addressed effectively. But even if the European Union does master those challenges successfully, and thus manages to sustain and perhaps even enhance its influence as a force in international relations, it will still have to proceed cautiously and clearly focus its attempts on shaping its external environment and contributing to a ‘concrete’ or ‘civilized’ global order. In a global setting that, despite appearances to the contrary, seems characterized by a diffusion rather than a concentration of power and by strong tendencies towards entropy rather than order, the EU can and will probably not remain America's principal ally in sustaining Pax Americana. Nor does it seem likely to become an equal partner in a constructive, balanced transatlantic relationship, let alone a great power capable of challenging, perhaps together with others, America's apparent pre‐eminence. The most plausible assumption for the EU's future role in the new balance of global order is that of a ‘civilian force’ with a regional focus. It may best be able to contribute to global order by managing its own realm well, promoting the normative and institutional infrastructure for civilized international relations, not least in the sense of functioning statehood, and working towards effective multilateralism.     

The art of declining politely: Obama's prudent presidency and the waning of American power

Predictions of ‘American decline’ have come and gone before, apparently in cycles, leading some to regard it as a cultural trope stemming from domestic insecurities rather than a serious prospect. There is reason to believe, however, that this time is different. Fundamental erosion of the United States’ decades‐long primacy may finally be at hand, and wise analysis should resist the temptations of contrarianism or denial. Critics of ‘declinism’ have offered important caveats with which we should qualify any overly simplistic or deterministic portrait of America's trajectory from hegemon to lesser status. This article gives such qualifications due weight while nevertheless seeking to steer our gaze back towards the core truth at the heart of the declinist thesis. That is: unless something very significant changes to jolt the course of events onto a different track, the relative power of the United States—measured in terms of its advantage over others in economic and military capacity—will be shrinking significantly over the decades to come. Happily, the nation's current president seems to have a disposition well fitted to leading the nation into the opening stages of an era of relative decline. President Obama has made headlines in recent months for his boldness in orchestrating the killing of Osama bin Laden. A fuller survey of his foreign policy, however, reveals that its most signal feature has been prudence and circumspection regarding American power and its exercise. Major divergence between the ends pursued and the capacities available for their pursuit is one of the cardinal sins giving rise to strategic failure. It is thus fortunate for the United States that it should have a president who, even if he may not be inclined to cast it in such words himself, seems disposed not to ‘rage against the dying of the light’ of American primacy, but to practice the admirable art of declining politely.     

Book reviews

Books reviewed in this article: International Relations theory The political philosophy of cosmopolitanism. Edited by Gillian Brock and Harry Brighouse Justice beyond borders: a global political theory. By Simon Caney Challenging America's global preeminence: Russia's quest for multipolarity. By Thomas Ambrosio Martin Wight: four seminal thinkers in international thought, Machiavelli, Grotius, Kant and Mazzini. Edited by Gabriele Wight and Brian Porter Human rights and ethics The democracy makers: human rights and the politics of global order. By Nicolas Guilhot International law and organization American exceptionalism and human rights. Edited by Michael Ignatieff International organizations and their exercise of sovereign powers. By Danesh Sarooshi Conflict, security and armed forces My year in Iraq: the struggle to build a future of hope. By L. Paul Bremer III, with Malcolm McConnell The far enemy: why jihad went global. By Fawaz Gerges The norms of war: cultural beliefs and modern conflict. By Theo Farrell The West's last chance: will we win the clash of civilizations? By Tony Blankley The killing trap: genocide in the twentieth century. By Manus I. Midlarsky Politics, democracy and social affairs Politik der Götter: Europa und der neue Fundamentalismus. By Gret Haller Ethnicity and cultural politics The dark side of democracy: explaining ethnic cleansing. By Michael Mann Understanding anti‐Americanism: its origins and impact at home and abroad. Edited by Paul Hollander Multiculturalism in Asia. Edited by Will Kymlicka and Baogang He Political economy, economics and development Capitalism: as if the world matters. By Jonathon Porritt World development report 2006: equity and development. By the World Bank The rise of Spanish multinationals: European business in the global economy. By Mauro F. Guillén Globalizing international political economy. Edited by Nicola Phillips History US internal security assistance to South Vietnam: insurgency, subversion and public order. By William Rosenau Europe Alcide De Gasperi: un percorso europeo. Edited by Eckart Conze, Gustavo Corni and Paolo Pombeni Making the world autonomous: a global role for the European Union. By Anthony Clunies‐Ross Universities and the Europe of knowledge: ideas, institutions and policy entrepreneurship in European Union higher education policy. By Anne Corbett The dynamics of European integration: why and when EU institutions matter. By Derek Beach Constructing the path to eastern enlargement: the uneven policy impact of EU identity. By Ulrich Sedelmeier The geopolitics of Euro‐Atlantic integration. Edited by Hans Mouritzen and Anders Wivel Russia and Eurasia Central Asia's second chance. By Martha Brill Olcott Democracy derailed in Russia: the failure of open politics. By M. Steven Fish Middle East and North Africa Iran's strategic weapons programmes: a net assessment. Edited by Gary Samore Israeli democracy at the crossroads. Edited by Raphael Cohen‐Almagor Israeli institutions at the crossroads. Edited by Raphael Cohen‐Almagor Sub‐Saharan Africa Kupilikula: governance and the invisible realm in Mozambique. By Harry G. West Apartheid South Africa and African states: from pariah to middle power, 1961–1994. By Roger Pfister Politics in southern Africa: state and society in transition. By Gretchen Bauer and Scott D. Taylor Central Africa: crises, reform and reconstruction. Edited by E. S. D. Formin and John W. Forje Asia and Pacific Untying the knot: making peace in the Taiwan Strait. By Richard C. Bush Dangerous Strait: the US‐Taiwan‐China crisis. Edited by Nancy Bernkopf Tucker The Thaksinization of Thailand. By Duncan McCargo and Ukrist Pathmanand North America The 50% American: immigration and national identity in an age of terror. By Stanley A. Renshon The American era: power and strategy for the 21st century. By Robert J. Lieber Latin America and Caribbean Democracy in Latin America: political change in comparative perspective Gendered paradoxes: women's movements, state restructuring and global development in Ecuador. By Amy Lind Cuba, the United States, and the post‐Cold War world: the international dimensions of the Washington‐Havana relationship. Edited by Morris Morley and Chris McGillion Rethinking development in Latin America. Edited by Charles H. Wood and Bryan R. Roberts     

Over‐promising and under‐delivering? Ambitions and risks in US defence strategy

Recent changes to US defence strategy, plans and forces have placed the United States at greater risk of over‐promising and under‐delivering on its global security ambitions. In 2012, the Obama administration released a new defence strategic guidance document to adapt to a shifting security environment and defence budget cuts. The guidance upholds the two long‐standing American goals of global pre‐eminence and global reach, but seeks to apply this military power by using new planning and regional concepts. It revises the Department of Defense's force planning construct, an important tool used to size US military forces, and identifies the Asia–Pacific and the greater Middle East as the two regions where the US military should focus its attention and resources. There are three major risks facing this revised US strategy: emerging security threats, the role of US allies and partners, and domestic constraints in the United States. Included in these risks are the proliferation of advanced military technologies, the US response to the rise of China, the continued prevalence of state instability and failure, the capability and commitment of NATO and other US allies, additional US budget cuts, political polarization in the United States, and interservice competition within the US military. In light of these risks, the United States faces a future in which it will continue to struggle to direct its military power towards its most important geopolitical priorities, such as rebalancing towards the Asia–Pacific, as opposed simply to respond to the many security surprises that are certain to arise. If the past is any guide, American political leaders will respond to the aforementioned risks in the worst way possible: by maintaining the current US defence strategy while slashing the resources to support it.     

Book reviews

Books reviewed in this issue International Relations theory The vulnerable in international society. By Ian Clark. Liberty abroad: J. S. Mill on International Relations. By Georgios Varouxakis. Wronged by empire: post‐imperial ideology and foreign policy in India and China. By Manjari Chatterjee Miller. Interpreting international politics. By Cecelia Lynch. International organization, law and ethics The Routledge companion to alternative organization. Edited by Martin Parker, George Cheney, Valérie Fournier and Chris Land. Conflict, security and defence The gamble of war: is it possible to justify preventive war? By Ariel Colonomos. NATO in Afghanistan: fighting together, fighting alone. David P. Auerswald and Stephen M. Saideman. Just war: authority, tradition, and practice. Edited by Anthony F. Lang Jr, Cian O'Driscoll and John Williams. Counterinsurgency in crisis: Britain and the challenges of modern warfare. By David H. Ucko and Robert Egnell. Arguments that count: physics, computing, and missile defense, 1949–2012. By Rebecca Slayton. The discourse trap and the US military: from the war on terror to the surge. Jeffrey H. Michaels. Political economy, economics and development The dollar trap. By Eswar Prasad. Austerity: the history of a dangerous idea. By Mark Blyth. Development aid confronts politics: the almost revolution. By Thomas Carothers and Diane de Gramont. Energy, environment and global health The future is not what it used to be: climate change and energy security. By Jörg Friedrichs. The politics and institutions of global energy governance. Thijs van de Graaf. International history The new Cambridge history of American foreign relations, vol. 4: challenges to American primacy, 1945 to the present. By Warren I. Cohen. The Holocaust, fascism, and memory: essays in the history of ideas. By Dan Stone. Europe Britain in global politics, volume 1: from Gladstone to Churchill. Edited by Christopher Baxter, Michael L. Dockrill and Keith Hamilton. Britain in global politics, volume 2: from Churchill to Blair. Edited by John W. Young, Effie G. H. Pedaliu and Michael D. Kandiah. Transitional justice in post‐communist Romania: the politics of memory. By Lavinia Stan. Europe's deadlock: how the euro crisis could be solved—and why it won't happen. By David Marsh. The struggle for EU legitimacy. Public contestation, 1950–2005. Claudia Schrag Sternberg. Russia and Eurasia Russia 2025. Scenarios for the Russian future. Edited by Maria Lipman and Nikolay Petrov. Middle East and North Africa Toppling Qaddafi: Libya and the limits of liberal intervention. Christopher Chivvis. The Syria dilemma. Edited by Nader Hashemi and Danny Postel. Party politics and the prospects for democracy in North Africa. By Lise Storm. Sub‐Saharan Africa A poisonous thorn in our hearts: Sudan and South Sudan's bitter and incomplete divorce. By James Copnall. Liberation movements in power: party and state in southern Africa. By Roger Southall. South Asia Magnificent delusions: Pakistan, the United States, and an epic history of misunderstanding. By Hussain Haqqani. No exit from Pakistan: America's tortured relationship with Islamabad. By Daniel Markey. The warrior state: Pakistan in the contemporary world. By T. V. Paul. East Asia and Pacific Contestation and adaptation: the politics of national identity in China. By Enze Han. North Korea in transition: politics, economy, and society. Edited by Kyung‐ae Park and Scott Snyder. North America The Kennan diaries. Edited by Frank Costigliola. The empire trap: the rise and fall of U.S. intervention to protect American property overseas, 1893–2013. By Noel Maurer. What changed when everything changed: 9/11 and the making of national identity. By Joseph Margulies. Latin America and Caribbean Democratic Chile: the politics and policies of a historic coalition, 1990–2010. Edited by Kirsten Sehnbruch and Peter M. Siavelis. Política externa e democracia no Brasil: ensaio de interpretação histórica. By Dawisson Belém Lopes. In search of the Amazon: Brazil, the United States and the nature of a region. By Seth Garfield.     

Book reviews

Books reviewed in this issue. International Relations theory The evolution of International Security Studies. By Barry Buzan and Lene Hansen. International law and organization Escaping the self‐determination trap. By Marc Weller. Punishment, justice and international relations: ethics and order after the Cold War. By Anthony F. Lang Jr. Foreign policy Perceptions and policy in transatlantic relations: prospective visions from the US and Europe. Edited by Natividad Fernández Sola and Michael Smith. Avoiding trivia: the role of strategic planning in American foreign policy. Edited by Daniel W. Drezner. India and the United States in the 21st century: reinventing partnership. By Teresita C. Schaffer. Conflict, security and armed forces The new counterinsurgency era: transforming the US military for modern wars. By David H. Ucko. Under a mushroom cloud: Europe, Iran and the bomb. By Emanuele Ottolenghi. Old and new terrorism: late modernity, globalization and the transformation of political violence. By Peter R. Neumann. Terrorism: how to respond. By Richard English. The de‐radicalization of jihadists: transforming armed Islamist movements. By Omar Ashour. Crime, war and global trafficking: designing international cooperation. By Christine Jojarth. Security and the war on terror. Edited by Alex J. Bellamy, Roland Bleiker, Sara E. Davies and Richard Devetak. Politics, democracy and social affairs Facts are subversive: political writings from a decade without a name. By Timothy Garton Ash. Political economy, economics and development A failure of capitalism: the crisis of ′08 and the descent into depression. By Richard A. Posner. The future of the dollar. Edited by Eric Helleiner and Jonathan Kirshner. Discipline in the global economy? International finance and the end of liberalism. By Jakob Vestergaard. Ethnicity and cultural politics The crisis of Islamic civilization. By Ali A. Allawi. Islam and the secular state: negotiating the future of shari'a. By Abdullahi Ahmed an‐Na'im. The fall and rise of the Islamic state. By Noah Feldman. Energy and environment Emerging global scarcities and power shifts. Edited by Bernard Berendsen. China and the energy equation in Asia: the determinants of policy choice. By Jean A. Garrison. History The rise and fall of communism. By Archie Brown. The great Cold War: a journey through the hall of mirrors. By Gordon S. Barrass. Europe Europe old and new: transnationalism, belonging, xenophobia. By Ray Taras. Farmers on welfare: the making of Europe's Common Agricultural Policy. By Ann‐Christina L. Knudsen. European security governance: the European Union in a Westphalian world. Edited by Charlotte Wagnsson, James A. Sperling and Jan Hallenberg. Russia and Eurasia Russian Eurasianism: an ideology of empire. By Marlène Laruelle. Russian nationalism and the national reassertion of Russia. Edited by Marlène Laruelle. Middle East and North Africa Defeat: why they lost Iraq. By Jonathan Steele. Guardians of the revolution: Iran and the world in the age of the Ayatollahs. By Ray Takeyh. Sub‐Saharan Africa China's new role in Africa. By Ian Taylor. China's African challenges. By Sarah Raines. Asia and Pacific Whose ideas matter? Agency and power in Asian regionalism. By Amitav Acharya. Challenges to Chinese foreign policy: diplomacy, globalisation and the next world power. Edited by Yufan Hao, C. X. George Wei and Lowell Dittmer. Chinese security policy: structure, power and politics. By Robert R. Ross. North America Renegade: the making of Barack Obama. By Richard Wolffe. Latin America and Caribbean Cuban medical internationalism: origins, evolution, and goals. By John M. Kirk and H. Michael Erisman. Brazil as an economic superpower? Understanding Brazil's changing role in the global economy. Edited by Lael Brainard and Leonardo Martinez‐Diaz.     

The political parameters of post‐withdrawal Iraq

The withdrawal of US combat forces presents new challenges and opportunities for Iraqis over the coming months and years. This special issue of International Affairs seeks to provide an assessment and analysis of many of these challenges and opportunities from the perspective of Iraqi actors, while also considering the interests of the wider regional and international community. Iraq remains important, fundamentally so. The main challenges that now face Iraqi leaders are not of recent origin but have never been fully confronted—to some degree the US presence has acted to ameliorate tensions at difficult times and helped to find compromise solutions that have left situations calm but also put on hold. The articles in this special issue focus on a range of these challenges, questioning orthodox views on Iraqi political development and considering the possibilities that lie ahead. They present not only ‘post‐American Iraq’ but also ‘post‐Iraq America’. By facing these challenges successfully, political, economic and social opportunities clearly unfold. These opportunities, if exploited to the full, would see Iraq's security become normalized, its economy and social structures repaired, and the prominence of the country in international affairs as a constructive rather than destructive force increased. However, the reverse of this is also starkly apparent. The failure of Iraqi leaders to meet the challenges may present very serious problems in the near future—problems possibly made all the more severe due to the lack of a US military presence and the perceived weakening of US will to impose itself on the political direction of the country.     

The reluctant sovereign: New adventures of the US presidential Thanksgiving turkey

This article revisits the annual US presidential ritual of pardoning a Thanksgiving turkey, and explores the changes made to the procedures since 2003, when the author's Prickly Paradigm pamphlet on the issue was published. This includes such curious developments as the turkey being retired to Disneyland in Florida instead of a nearby petting zoo; the presidential contender Sarah Palin's attempt at pardoning her own turkey, a PR disaster with a twist; the new Virginia‐based movement to pardon a pig instead of a turkey; and President Obama's apparent reluctance in face of the ceremony — by now a spectacle so firmly implanted in US political life that it can no longer be dislodged. An extended interpretation is offered for just how all these developments relate to the deep‐seated American ambivalence towards the place of Native Americans in the nation's history, as well as towards the position of the US as a military superpower.     

Sexual Threat and Settler Society: ‘Black Perils’ in Kenya,c. 1907–30

This article investigates America's deepening involvement in the politics, finance and international trade of francophone West Africa in the decade after World War II. It does so by analysing two constituencies of opinion: the US consular service across French West Africa and the network of American business interests then developing throughout the region. These actors, although closest to the events described, have yet to receive much attention in analyses of US policymaking in Africa. The reports, intelligence estimates, and opinions of consular officials and US businessmen were pivotal to the attitudinal formation of policymakers in the Truman and Eisenhower administrations, few of whom had much experience of West African affairs. The article traces American engagement with the post-war politics of French black Africa, and discerns a shift in US policy interests from concern with economic development, investment potential and improved living standards to more narrowly strategic concerns. By 1952 the promise of US-driven economic modernization had given way to a reductive vision of West African decolonisation informed by Cold War calculations of political advantage.     

Russia's economic agenda to 2020

Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union the role of Russia in international relations has been in flux—a reflection of its changing capacities, positions and interests. To a certain extent, this variability has been defined by the Russian economy, which in the 1990s passed through a stage of deep structural transformation and severe financial crisis, but which then benefited from a period of fast and mainly stable economic growth in the first years of the twenty‐first century. Now, the serious economic decline as a result of the global crisis of 2008–2009 has been replaced by an unstable and uncertain recovery. In the 2000s a very specific political regime of personalized power under Vladimir Putin—set to be back as president in 2012—was established in Russia. During his next term Putin will face the most serious challenges to Russia's economic policy yet. According to some scenarios, these challenges could significantly destabilize the country's politics and economy. Russia is facing a demographic trap; the ageing of the population is increasing the pension burden on the budget, while the shrinking labour force will surely become an obstacle to growth. The dependence of the budget and balance of payments on the price of oil has grown so great that even price stabilization becomes a threat to macroeconomic stability. The poor quality of the investment climate leads to falling private investment which, in turn, hinders the much‐vaunted modernization of the economy. If combined, these problems will lead to the widening of the gap in technology and living standards between Russia and developed countries. Elimination of political competition and the impossibility of replacing political leaders through elections have led to widespread corruption and abuses, crony capitalism, and the complete undermining of the independence of the courts and law enforcement which further complicates the search for adequate responses to the mounting economic challenges. As there are no reasons to believe that Vladimir Putin is going to reform the country's current political system, the gradual accumulation of economic problems could well become the main threat to his presidency as Russia heads towards 2020.     

Book reviews

Book reviewed in this issue. International Relations theory Political evil in a global age: Hannah Arendt and international theory. By Patrick Hayden. International law, human rights and ethics Means to an end: U.S. interest in the International Criminal Court. By Lee Feinstein and Tod Lindberg. International organization and foreign policy Regional leadership in the global system: ideas, interests and strategies of regional powers. Edited by Daniel Flemes. New powers: how to become one and how to manage them. By Amrita Narlikar. Conflict, security and defence * * See also Priyanjali Malik, India's nuclear debate: exceptionalism and the bomb, pp. 504–5.
The worst‐kept secret: Israel's bargain with the bomb. By Avner Cohen. A skeptic's case for nuclear disarmament. By Michael O'Hanlon. Governance, civil society and cultural politics The globalization of surveillance. By Armand Mattelart. Diaspora and transnationalism: concepts, theories and methods. Edited by Rainer Bauböck and Thomas Faist. Political economy, economics and development Just give money to the poor: the development revolution from the global South. By Joseph Hanlon, Armando Barrientos and David Hulme. Energy, resources and environment Challenged by carbon: the oil industry and climate change. By Bryan Lovell. The biofuel delusion. By Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi. Food versus fuel: an informed introduction to biofuels. Edited by Frank Rosillo‐Calle and Francis X. Johnson. Global energy governance in a multipolar world. By Dries Lesage, Thijs Van de Graaf and Kristen Westphal. History The Kaiser's holocaust: Germany's forgotten genocide and the colonial roots of Nazism. By David Olusoga and Casper W. Erichsen. A century of revolution: insurgent and counterinsurgent violence during Latin America's long Cold War. Edited by Greg Grandin and Gilbert M. Joseph. Latin America's Cold War. By Hal Brands. America's Cold War: the politics of insecurity. By Campbell Craig and Fredrik Logevall. Europe A community of Europeans? Transnational identities and public spheres. By Thomas Risse. The EU presence in international organizations. Edited by Spyros Blavoukos and Dimitris Bourantonis. Russia and Eurasia Lonely power: why Russia has failed to become the West and the West is weary of Russia. By Lilya Shevtsova. The Black Sea region and EU policy: the challenge of divergent agendas. Edited by Karen Henderson and Carol Weaver. Key players and regional dynamics in Eurasia: the return of the ‘Great Game’. Edited by Maria Raquel Freire and Roger E. Kanet. Middle East and North Africa Egypt on the brink: from Nasser to Mubarak. By Tarek Osman. War and memory in Lebanon. By Sune Haugbolle. Beirut. By Samir Kassir. Palestine betrayed. By Efraim Karsh. Encyclopaedia of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, vols I–III. Edited by Cheryl A. Rubenberg. Sub‐Saharan Africa My Nigeria: five decades of independence. By Peter Cunliffe‐Jones. Informal institutions and citizenship in rural Africa: risk and reciprocity in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire. By Lauren M. MacLean. South Asia India's nuclear debate: exceptionalism and the bomb. By Priyanjali Malik. The other war: winning and losing in Afghanistan. By Ronald E. Neumann. Afghanistan: a cultural and political history. By Thomas Barfield. East Asia and Pacific Accepting authoritarianism: state‐society relations in China's reform era. By Teresa Wright. Mao Zedong and China in the twentieth‐century world: a concise history. By Rebecca E. Karl. China today, China tomorrow: domestic politics, economy and society. Edited by Joseph Fewsmith. China and India in the age of globalization. By Shalendra D. Sharma. Friends and enemies: the past, present and future of the Communist Party of China. By Kerry Brown. North America The myth of American exceptionalism. By Godfrey Hodgson. Neoconservatism and the new American century. By Maria Ryan. The irony of manifest destiny: the tragedy of America's foreign policy. By William Pfaff. Latin America and Caribbean The Bachelet government: conflict and consensus in post‐Pinochet Chile. Edited by Silvia Borzutzky and Gregory B. Weeks. What if Latin America ruled the world? How the South will take the North into the 22nd century. By Oscar Guardiola‐Rivera.