解析一次未实现的科学合作

在现代科学研究中,科学家之间,不同科学机构之间,乃至不同国家之间开展合作研究,不仅是司空见惯的事情,甚至已经是必不可少的了。其中的必要性、优越性,以及由于良好合作而给科学发展、技术进步带来的种种益处,是人所共知的。科学技术发展史中,也有过不少让人们津津乐道的范例。但是,毋庸讳言,这种合作是存在风险的,即使不是学术研究本身的风险,它往往也是很高的。因合作不愉快而给科学发展造成的伤害,甚至可能超过了合作成功带来的收益。伤害的形式多种多样,有可能是科学家间的个人关系,也有可能是机构之间乃至国家之间的关系,甚至可能是并…     

Windspeed Maps for Tasmania and Their Use in Wind Energy Assessment

Laplacian smoothing spline functions have been used in a detailed spatial analysis of monthly and annual mean windspeed values in Tasmania. The techniques used here have been described in detail by Hutchinson et aL and the present paper significantly extends their results for Tasmania. The windspeed maps are discussed in detail with particular emphasis on their use for the assessment of Tasmania's wind energy potential     

Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Climatology: A Case Study of Sunspot Prediction and Solar Climate Trends

Global temperature trends on time scales of years to centuries have recently been shown to be related to volcanic aerosols, carbon dioxide levels, and solar activity. The most visible and well-studied indicators of solar variability are dark areas or “sunspots” on the surface of the Sun, with sunspot numbers directly related to the level of solar activity. Prediction of sunspot numbers in advance of the actual event has proven problematic with most methods failing due to nonlinearities in solar activity. An approach using the generation of a feedforward neural network may resolve some of the difficulties inherent in currently utilized statistical and precursor approaches since feedforward networks offer a useful and practical method of approximating nonlinear relations and their derivatives without knowing the actual underlying nonlinear function. In this paper, we show some preliminary findings in using feedforward neural networks for the prediction of peak sunspot cycle amplitude and discuss the climatic implications of the findings.     

日本的产业技术扶持政策与实施手段 以太阳能产业为例

日本经济的核心是日本企业以持续技术革新为基础的国际竞争力。日本企业之所以能持续进行技术革新是与日本政府的政策引导和支持分不开的。本文指出日本政府在国家总体目标之下,利用自身的信息优势和资源优势,根据时代的变迁,制定不同的产业技术政策,通过政策引导,使企业能够明确技术革新的方向,并通过对市场的增进为新技术提供需求,从而促进新兴产业的发展。     

An Attempt to Determine the Influence of Large Reservoirs on Local Climate

The authors use the method of geographic analogues to predict the influence of the projected Pechora-Vychegda-Kama watershed reservoir on the temperature and humidity of the surrounding territory. On the basis of the climatic influence of the Rybinsk Reservoir, measured by changes in differences of meteorological elements between pairs of stations, the authors expect a 10-km.-wide belt of stable influence around the projected reservoir, with episodic effects in the direction of the prevailing winds up to 30 to 50 km. inland.     

An Assessment of the Networks for Measuring and Modelling Solar Radiation in British Columbia and Adjacent Areas of Western Canada

The coverage provided by the existing solar radiation monitoring network for British Columbia and adjacent areas in western Canada is assessed and found to be inadequate. It is generally advantageous to use a numerical solar radiation model at available sites to augment the observed values, although this is not a complete solution to the problem. It is also shown that the ability to extrapolate solar radiation data from measurement and modelling locations is strongly determined by the general nature of the synoptic weather conditions. In addition, the use of solar radiation extrapolations is restricted by problems involving homogeneity and isotropy assumptions.
Les auteurs presentent une evaluation de la distribution des stations en Colombie britannique et les aires adjacents du Canada de I'ouest mesurant la radiation solaire; ils en concluent que le reseau actuel est inadequat. 11s soulignent I'avantage d'emprunter un modele numerique pour caracteriser la radiation solaire aux sites disponibles, afin d'aug-menter les donnees observees. Neanmoins, cela ne represente pas pour les auteurs une solution complete du probleme. 11s demontrent que le caractere general des conditions meteorologiques synoptiques determine fortement la possibilite d'une extrapolation de la distribution de la radiation solaire, derivee des donnees mesurees et des modeles adoptes aux sites specifiques. Finalement, ils etablissent que certains problemes concernant les hypo-theses d'homogeneite et d'isotropie imposent leur tour des limites a I'utilite de la methoded'extrapolation pour decrire la radiation solaire.     

史前考古遗址中一种重要的古气候信息载体: 软体动物贝壳

史前考古遗址中出土的软体动物贝壳中的氧碳同位素值是生长时期气候变化的良好指示器,对有比较确切考古学年代的贝壳的分析,有助于建立史前气候变化的序列。     

遥制——蒋介石手令研究

蒋介石的手令制度具有以下几项特色：第一,蒋的大量颁布手令,仅为战争时期的权宜措施,1950年以后所颁布的手令即大为减少;即使在1950年以前,蒋也再三督促所属尽量不以手令形式颁布命令,因此实难谓蒋无尊重体制之心。其次,蒋所颁布手令的内容包括极广,越级指挥者并不多见,少数越级指挥且出现弊端较为严重者,仅为有关作战方面的手令。第三,军事将领喜好越级指挥作战,乃是在长期指挥小兵团的环境中所养成的习惯,加以缺乏指挥大兵团作战的训练与经验所致,因此好越级指挥作战者,绝非仅限于蒋一人,而是一种普遍现象。更有进者,如将蒋的大量颁布手令放在战时中国艰困的物质环境下观察,可以发现除此之外,似乎也没有其他更好的选择。     

Private Governance of Climate Change in Hong Kong: An Analysis of Drivers and Barriers to Corporate Action

This study examines how corporate governance of climate change is developing in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong), Asia's leading financial centre. It situates corporate actions within the broader framework of urban multi-stakeholder climate governance. In the absence of international obligations under the Kyoto Protocol and government regulation to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the majority of companies in Hong Kong have yet to tackle climate change. However, a small number of proactive corporations are acting to reduce climate change induced risks and reposition themselves to take advantage of climate change opportunities. Focusing on these leading corporations, this study identifies the motivations for and barriers to action. It concludes that corporations are only one of the necessary players in addressing climate change at the city level. Corporate climate change governance could be improved in Hong Kong by developing a stronger institutional framework and broader civil society support.     

近三十年来中国历史气候研究方法的进展——以文献资料为中心

过去30年里,中国历史气候的研究取得了世所瞩目的成就。这一研究领域中每次重要的进展,都伴随着资料的开拓和方法的创新。有鉴于此,本文主要对近三十年来历史气候研究中文献资料的收集整理、资料中存在问题的甄别和处理,温度序列、干湿序列的重建及其它相关历史气候研究领域中研究方法的进展做了回顾总结。指出研究方法的进步主要体现在更有效地提取和利用历史文献中的有效信息,尽量减少重建过程和结果的不确定性。而一定的方法总是适用于一定的资料。并认为新资料的继续开拓和集成方法的发展完善将进一步推动研究的进步。     

利用会党:辛亥革命的一个误区

辛亥革命时期,革命党人即已认识到利用会党是一个失误,因而才转而依靠新军。会党是当时社会成员异化的结果,广大农民对会党的诡异行为普遍持恐惧、戒备、鄙夷心理;会党的种种不法行为只能使之成为革命党人动员农民的障碍,而不是什么纽带。革命党人对会党纯粹是“利用”,根本没有想到要去改造会党,进而结成政治同盟。会党能否充当革命党联系农民的纽带,完全是后来的学者提出的理论问题,辛亥革命时期革命党人从未将发动农民问题提上议事日程。革命党人利用会党起义根本没有成功的可能,其激励民众的作用远远弥补不了给革命事业造成的损失。各省独立后,会党严重扰乱了社会秩序;民国初年,一些会党由对革命党不满发展到反对民主共和,图谋颠覆新生革命政权,很快蜕变为反动势力。     

An Illustration of the Use of an Atypicality Index in Provenancing British Stone Axes

An atypicality index has been used to compare the chemical compositions of 11 British prehistoric implements (axes and axe‐hammers, and a mace) with previously suggested and likely sources in South Wales (Group XIII spotted dolerite from the Carnmenyn area, and Group VIII rhyolite from Carnalw). Atypicality indices together with mineralogy indicate that only two out of six supposed Group XIII implements are likely to be Group XIII, and only one of the five rhyolite implements is likely to originate from Carnalw. These results provide statistical support for earlier provenancing of seven of the implements, and provide the first geochemical source information for four implements. The results illustrate the usefulness of the atypicality index in archaeology, and support the idea that Groups XIII and VIII comprise a larger variety of chemical types than previously thought. Further work is now needed to determine how prevalent this variety is within these implement groups.     

西北地区买地券、镇墓文使用现状调查与研究

买地券、镇墓文从东汉开始出现,历代传承不绝,宋人笔记有记载,明清文人有收藏著录,1949年后的考古作业也有不少发现。在考古报告和文物研究文章中,一般都把随葬买地券、镇墓文当作是历史上曾经存在过的古代民俗,不曾设想它是民间仍然活着的、至今还在发挥作用的文化制度。本人一开始也把买地券、镇墓文