Prediction and its discontents: guidance for Australia from the debate over social science forecasting

The well-documented failure of many experts to predict many events of strategic importance—from 9/11 to the global financial crisis to the Arab Spring—has led to a fashionable belief amongst some academics and popular commentators that prediction is a ‘fool's errand’. Problems inherent in forecasting political events, such as cognitive biases, strategic interaction, complexity effects and various others, make this an attractive position. However, although a proper degree of humility is warranted about the ability to predict strategic events, this article argues that not making predictions at all is not an option. No genuinely workable policy advice could flow to Australian policy makers unless analysts are able, however roughly, to try to forecast the future. Moreover, with some hard, determined work, social scientists have recently produced work which promises to be able to foresee important events such as state failures and civil wars with reasonable accuracy. Experts should be encouraged to make, and should routinely be evaluated on, predictions about their area of expertise. Even failed predictions can be useful in pointing up gaps in knowledge and understanding which would otherwise have remained opaque.     

Flexibility Meets Accountability: State Charter School Laws and Their Influence on the Formation of Charter Schools in the United States

Using an original and unique database of state charter school laws that we have developed, we analyze how state policymakers have incorporated two key values into state charter school laws: flexibility and accountability. We supplement this database with other state‐level measures to answer two specific questions: What factors influence the degree of flexibility and accountability in state charter school laws? How does the content of state charter school laws, and the different values those laws embrace, affect the formation of charter schools in the United States? Overall, we show that state political and contextual factors help account for the degree of flexibility, but not accountability, in state charter school laws. Further, we show that the degree of flexibility, accountability, and political and contextual factors influence the number of charter schools that form in the states.     

Australia,the security council and the Iranian crisis of 1946: Liberal internationalism in practice

In the early months of 1946 Dr H.V. Evatt made a concerted effort to shape the newly formed Security Council as a security tribunal. He wanted the Security Council to be governed by the principles of the United Nations Charter, to adopt regular procedures, to have an investigatory function and to make determinations on the facts of each case, not on the basis of power politics. Evatt attempted to implement his policy during the Iranian crisis despite the opposition of all the great powers, including the United Kingdom. This episode reveals the commitment to liberal internationalism that marked Australian foreign policy during this period and demonstrates both the possibilities and limits of an ‘idealist’ foreign policy.     

‘The Charter of its Birthright’: The Civil War and American Nationalism

Abstract. This article examines the role of warfare in the development of American nationalism, focusing in particular on the American Civil War (1861–5). The American response to warfare, and especially to the two major conflicts that created and consolidated the American nation -the Revolution and the Civil War - is revealing in terms of how Americans went about the process of defining themselves as a nation. Evidence is offered here of how nineteenthcentury Americans used the American Revolution for both national and sectional definition; and how it in turn came to be supplanted by the Civil War as the positive act of American national construction. This article argues that the American response to the Civil War provides an opportunity for scholars to trace the development of the myths that are central to the construction of nationalism but that have, to date, only been examined in any depth in a European context. Specifically, it addresses the question of how and why a destructive, internecine Civil War is still regarded today as the ‘salvation drama’ of the American nation.     

Wet charred wood: a preliminary study of the material and its conservation treatments

This study investigated wet charred wood excavated at an archaic cemetery in Corfu, Greece, dating from 6th century B.C. The preservation condition of the material was evaluated based on its physicochemical properties and micromorphology in comparison to modern combusted wood. Charring temperature of the material was estimated by Electron Spin Resonance (ESR). Results indicated a severe degree of decay, resulting not only from charring. Conservation treatments involved spraying, as the material readily collapsed during immersion.     

Land Use in Western Australia: the Need for Change

The need for changes in land use has become more evident from analysis of continued declining trends in land and water resource quality. Land use change in this sense refers to changing existing resource management techniques towards ecologically sustainable development. For example, planting cleared areas towards natural water balance, creating better microclimates and improving soil stability. This paper examines existing land and water legislation and the role and scope of government and the community in achieving changes to traditional resource management including reference to economic and biophysical aspects.     

生活与逻辑的交汇——詹姆斯·C·霍尔特论大宪章

英国当代著名史学家詹姆斯·C·霍尔特以研究大宪章知名,他的《大宪章》一书是20世纪大宪章史学的杰作,被认为是20世纪后半叶大宪章研究领域最重要的一部著作。霍尔特的大宪章研究在方法上的突出特色,是将法律或原则还原为生活,通过比较,即通过对大宪章与欧洲中世纪其他同类文件的对比研究,以及对英王国与欧洲其他王国的对比研究,从实际生活过程解说大宪章的产生和特点。他致力于去除辉格派史学传统带来的那些时代错乱的历史解释,从生活与逻辑的交汇点阐释大宪章的内容和性质,依据大宪章的内在特点与时代发展的关系说明大宪章的历史与神话的联系。     

Policy options for full employment: Which way forward for Australia

This paper seeks to review the long‐term policy choices Australia faces if full employment is to be restored. Using cross‐national data for the period 1972–88, it identifies the variety of routes taken to mass unemployment and full employment It then discusses the diverse policy strategies underlying routes to full employment and examines the possibility and desirability of their adoption in Australia.     

Kennedy's Alliance for Progress: countering revolution in Latin America. Part I: From the White House to the Charter of Punta del Este

One of the first acts of the new administration of President John F. Kennedy in 1961 was to promote an ‘Alliance for Progress’ throughout Latin America. JFK's stated goal was ‘to transform the American continent’ by improving the often desperate living conditions of its peoples; advancing industrialization; diversifying and increasing exports (especially away from heavy dependence on single items such as coffee); encouraging interstate trade and communications; and—above all—strengthening democracy: a term to inspire but one rarely, if ever, defined. The primary means for achieving these ends would be the extension of loans by the United States and others, thereby building up capital for industrial production while increasing food and raw material supplies to maximize foreign exchange—all with the aim of reversing the ‘dependency’ of ‘underdeveloped’ Latin America upon the more ‘advanced’ economies of the north Atlantic area. Kennedy's expressed fear was that Latin America, its impoverished peoples ripe for revolution, would follow the path of Cuba under the new regime of Fidel Castro. In the first part of a two‐part analysis the historical and political origins of the Alliance are traced to both US and Latin American sources, including schemes within the Organization of American States and ‘Operation Pan America’; in the second part the economic failures and the strategic successes of the Alliance during the presidencies of Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard M. Nixon will be evaluated as another, if varied, stage in the evolving ‘hegemonic presumption’ of the US towards its southern neighbours.     

Scientists and the media: the struggle for legitimacy in climate change and conservation science

Abstract

Despite the uncertainties associated with forecasts of the possible negative effects of climate change on natural environments, such research is often widely reported in the news media. Here we review the presentation in the UK news media and on the internet of an academic study published in Nature, forecasting future global extinctions as a result of climate change. The results and conclusions of the study were widely misrepresented, especially in the news media, to make the consequences seem more catastrophic and the timescale shorter. Representations of the original article on the internet were more variable, with several sites ranked highly on popular search engines being overtly critical of the underlying science. We suggest that such polarised representations of environmental science are indicative of a 'struggle for legitimacy' between environmentalist and anti-environmentalist groups, with potential negative consequences for public trust in science.