REAL-TIME RISK ANALYSIS FOR HYBRID EARTHQUAKE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), based on real-time prediction of ground motion or structural response measures, may play a role in reducing vulnerability and/or exposition of buildings and lifelines. In fact, recently seismologists developed efficient methods for rapid estimation of event features by means of limited information of the P-waves. Then, when an event is occurring, probabilistic distributions of magnitude and source-to-site distance are available and the prediction of the ground motion at the site, conditioned to the seismic network measures, may be performed in analogy with the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Consequently the structural performance may be obtained by the Probabilistic Seismic Demand Analysis (PSDA), and used for real-time risk management purposes. However, such prediction is performed in very uncertain conditions which have to be taken into proper account to limit false and missed alarms. In the present study, real-time risk analysis for early warning purposes is discussed. The magnitude estimation is performed via the Bayesian approach, while the earthquake localization is based on the Voronoi cells. To test the procedure it was applied, by simulation, to the EEWS under development in the Campanian region (southern Italy). The results lead to the conclusion that the PSHA, conditioned to the EEWS, correctly predicts the hazard at the site and that the false/missed alarm probabilities may be controlled by set up of an appropriate decisional rule and alarm threshold.     

Seismic Rotational Displacements of Gravity Quay Walls Considering Excess Pore Pressure in Backfill Soils

The effect of excess pore pressure developed in backfill soil during earthquake is an important consideration in rotational displacement prediction of gravity quay walls. Based on Newmark’s sliding block concept and stress-based excess pore pressure model, a new method is proposed to predict the critical rotational acceleration and angular acceleration time histories considering the development process of excess pore pressure in earthquake events. Then, the rotational displacement of gravity quay walls is predicted according to the calculated angular acceleration time histories. By using the proposed method, the effects of various parameters involved in the calculation have been studied by carrying out a parameter study. Analysis results reveal that the influence of excess pore pressure on the rotational displacement of gravity quay walls with saturated backfill soil is significant, so, can not be ignored; and rotational displacement is sensitive to the magnitude of earthquake, horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations of ground motion, wall and soil friction angle, and soil relative density. When the rotation and sliding of wall occur simultaneously, rotation and sliding will be inhibited by each other.     

南京长江大桥桥头堡抗震加固受力性能研究

为研究南京长江大桥桥头堡填充墙加固对结构抗震性能的影响,提出考虑较高填充墙开裂的双斜撑模型,用于罕遇地震工况下桥头堡的抗震性能计算,同时提出考虑填充墙加固后刚度增强效应的建模方法。利用SAP2000建立了加固前后用于多遇地震工况、设防地震工况及罕遇地震工况的分析模型,并选取了桥头堡在1974年经历的实际地震激励时程及El-Centro地震激励时程作为激励进行了加固前后结构的抗震性能分析比较。研究发现,填充墙加固后桥头堡的抗震性能有了明显提升,其位移响应峰值约下降8%~23%,层间位移角响应峰值约下降12%~22%,而且桥头堡结构在设防地震情况下2个方向的层间位移角均满足了规范要求。另外,在罕遇地震工况下,未加固的填充墙开裂会使结构的扭转刚度下降,而填充墙加固可有效提升结构的扭转刚度,降低桥头堡在地震时发生扭转振动的概率。这2种地震荷载激励的分析结果差异约在3%~21%不等,且响应峰值出现的位置也有一些不同,故对桥头堡进行抗震时程分析时建议选取多条地震波输入综合分析。研究成果可为同类型的钢筋混凝土建筑遗产的抗震加固提供借鉴和参考。     

Seismic Performance to Emergency Centers,Communication and Hospital Facilities Subjected to Nepal Earthquakes, 2015

Emergency centers, communication systems, and hospitals are essential infrastructures for emergency rescue and subsequent reconstruction activities. An investigation into the Nepal 2015 earthquake sequences found that the visited government offices were functioning normally 40 days after the main shock; that the local media failed to coordinate with the entire society at the beginning, but mobile phone-based communication recovered quickly; and that the hospitals in high-intensity areas were badly damaged as a result of improper design and adverse site configuration. Recommendations are proposed to enhance the aseismic capacity of structural and non-structural components using earthquake early warning and base isolation.     

Seismic Damage to Structures in the 2015 Nepal Earthquake Sequences

The 7.8 Mw Gorkha earthquake struck the east of Lamjung in Nepal, followed by a sequence of powerful aftershocks. Chinese Team Six including the authors inspected the seismic damage to civil structures along 10 paths in densely populated areas with a seismic intensity of VII to IX, 40 days after the main shock. The damage was categorized according to structure types and described in detail. Several conclusions are made: powerful aftershocks can significantly affect the failure patterns; geological conditions, structure types, and height have great influence on the level of damage; and the local risky retrofitting technique needs improvement badly.     

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its surroundings based on the probabilistic approach. The area that has been studied lies between 50°E-60°E and 20°N-30°N and spans several Gulf countries. First, the tectonics of the area and its surroundings is reviewed. An updated catalogue, containing both historical and instrumental events is used. Seismic source regions are modelled and relationships between earthquake magnitude and earthquake frequency is established. A modified attenuation relation for Zagros region is adopted. Seismic hazard assessment is then carried out for 20 km interval grid points. Seismic hazard maps of the studied area based on probable Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability of exceedance for time-spans of 50, 100 and 200 years are shown. A seismic zone map is also shown for a 475-year return period. Although the results of the seismic hazard assessment indicated that UAE has moderate to low seismic hazard levels, nevertheless high seismic activities in the northern part of UAE warrant attention. The northern Emirates region is the most seismically active part of UAE. The PGA on bedrock in this region ranges between 0.22 g for a return period of 475 years to 0.38 g for a return period of 1900 years. This magnitude of PGA, together with amplification from local site effect, can cause structural damage to key structures and lifeline systems.     

Seismic Risk Assessment of New Zealand Unreinforced Masonry Churches using Statistical Procedures

ABSTRACT

The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence provided extensive evidence of the significant seismic vulnerability of New Zealand unreinforced masonry (URM) churches. Given the high seismicity of the country, the exposure of human lives and the societal significance of ecclesiastic buildings, for both historical and religious reasons, the reduction in seismic vulnerability of this building type is of primary importance. By analyzing the seismic performance of a sample of 80 affected buildings, regression models correlating mean damage levels against ground-motion parameters were developed for observed collapse mechanisms, accounting for vulnerability modifiers whose influence was estimated via statistical procedures. Considering the homogeneity of New Zealand URM churches, the vulnerability models developed for the Canterbury region were extended to the whole country inventory, and a synthetic index was proposed to summarise damage related to several mechanisms. Territorial scale assessment of the seismic vulnerability of churches can assist emergency management efforts and facilitate the identification of priorities for more in-depth analysis of individual buildings. After proper calibration, the proposed approach can be applied to other countries with similar building heritage.     

Development of Damage Patterns and Fragility Curves in Brick-nogging Buildings from the Thabeikkyin Earthquake,Myanmar, 2012

The Thabeikkyin earthquake (moment magnitude scale of 6.8) occurred on November 11, 2012; its epicenter was located 25 km from Thabeikkyin Township, Mandalay Region, Myanmar. Many buildings were damaged severely during the earthquake. In this study, damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings were firstly developed, and damage grades were characterized to allow for easy classification of the damaged buildings. The damaged data of all building types in the surveyed areas were collected by classifying the four damage levels as no damage, slight damage, moderate damage, and heavy damage. To develop the damage patterns of brick-nogging buildings, damage categories were arranged into three damage grades (slight, moderate, and heavy damage). Secondly, a questionnaire survey was conducted to calculate the seismic intensities of the affected areas. Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik (MSK) seismic intensities for the surveyed areas were estimated by analyzing the questionnaire survey responses. Finally, fragility curves for brick-nogging buildings were constructed using the estimated seismic intensities from the survey responses combined with the damage levels. These fragility curves may be useful to assess damage to brick-nogging buildings and to predict the number of damaged buildings in future earthquakes.     

LOS ANGELES AFTER THE STORM: THE DIALECTIC OF ORDINARY DISASTER

This article weighs recent scientific evidence that the urbanization of Southern California has taken place during one of the most unusual episodes of climatic and seismic benignity in the last 3500 years. Official disaster and resource planning, moreover, has been based on record-keeping shorter than the temporal wavelengths of the most important landscape processes. Indeed, the “biblical” flood, fire, and earthquake disasters of the last three years may only be a prelude to seismic and climatic events of far greater magnitude. What will be the future of the Los Angeles area if Congress refuses to continue federal disaster subsidies?     

Temporal change in groundwater level following the 1999 (Mw = 7.5) Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

We examine the post‐seismic change in the groundwater level following the 1999 (M_w = 7.5) Chi‐Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, as recorded by a network of 70 evenly distributed hydrological stations over a large alluvial fan near the epicenter. Four types of post‐seismic responses may be distinguished. In type 1, the groundwater level declined exponentially with time following a coseismic rise. This was the most common response in the study area and occurred in unconsolidated sediments on the Choshui River fan. In type 2, the groundwater level rose exponentially with time following a coseismic fall. This occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks in the foothills near the Chelungpu fault that ruptured in the Chi‐Chi earthquake. In type 3, the groundwater level continued to decline with time following a coseismic fall. This also occurred in the deformed and fractured sedimentary rocks near the ruptured fault. Finally, in type 4, the groundwater level, following a coseismic rise, stayed at the same level or even rose with time before it eventually declined. This occurred mostly in unconsolidated sediments along the coast of central Taiwan and along the Peikang Stream. We analyze these post‐seismic responses by using a one‐dimensional model. Together with the results from well test, the analysis show that the type 1 response may be explained by an aquifer model with coseismic recharge and post‐seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500–5000 m; the type 2 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post‐seismic recharge from surface water; the type 3 response may be explained by a model of coseismic discharge and post‐seismic subhorizontal discharge across a length of 500–5000 m; and the type 4 response may be explained by a model of coseismic recharge and sustained post‐seismic recharge from surface water. The characteristic time for the post‐seismic changes is similar to that for the groundwater‐level decline during dry seasons before the earthquake, suggesting that there was no earthquake‐induced changes in the aquifer properties (i.e. hydraulic conductivity), confirming the earlier results from recession analyses of the post‐seismic streamflow elsewhere after several earthquakes.     

Aseismic Assessment of the Qiantang River Levee

Liquefaction potential is evaluated using both in-situ and laboratory testing methods. Liquefaction and dynamic stability for the levee are determined using Biot’s dynamic consolidation equation which is used to analyze the increase and dissipation of pore water pressure as well as liquefaction and dynamic stability in the levee during a magnitude 7 earthquake. By inverse analysis, the acceleration at the bedrock is obtained from the acceleration data monitored previously at free surface and is inputted as the seismic loading. Results presented in this paper can provide improved stability assessment for levees experiencing seismic events of this magnitude.     

The October 2008 Nový Kostel earthquake swarm and its gas geochemical precursor

A gas geochemical precursor anomaly was identified prior to the October 2008 Nový Kostel (Czech Republic) earthquake swarm with a peak magnitude M_L of 3.8. This anomaly was observed as a deviation of CO₂ concentrations from the long‐term annual CO₂ concentration trend in the gas extracted from the scree at the Nový Kostel and Old?i?ská gas monitoring stations, which are directly above the Plesná valley‐Po?átky and Mariánské Lázně fault systems. Both sites are located within the major focal zone of the NW Bohemian swarm earthquake region at the northern edge of the Cheb Basin. A decrease in CO₂ concentration started at Nový Kostel in September 2008, 17 days before the swarm, opposite to the usually increasing annual trend in the autumn period, and ended with a nearly coseismic drop immediately prior to the onset of the first swarm. The CO₂ concentrations at Old?i?ská, deviating from the annual trend, did not further increase after August 2008. The calculated horizontal strain field, based on the data of two permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations, proved there was horizontal compression in this period. The increasing compression along the Plesná valley‐Po?átky and Mariánské Lázně fault systems during the stress build‐up reduced the fault permeability prior to this earthquake swarm as indicated by the decrease in CO₂ concentration. The 17‐day duration of the earthquake precursor at Nový Kostel and about 65 days at Old?i?ská lie within the range of the precursor times that are hypothesized worldwide for an M_L = 3.8 earthquake. The nature of earthquake precursors and their origin are discussed, for example, as an indication of changed fault permeability by stress build‐up in the case of the Nový Kostel swarm earthquake precursor or as fault opening in other cases.     

汶川地震可移动文物震害研究

为探索汶川地震作用下以浮放为主的可移动文物的震害及防震措施,通过震后勘查,讨论了汶川地震造成的可移动文物的典型震害症状。从博物馆、陈列台、文物本身等三个方面,分析了可移动文物的主要震害原因和传统的防震措施的不足之处,对国内外可移动文物的先进防震技术进行了探讨,研究了其防震机理。基于国内外可移动文物防震经验,对我国可移动文物提出了防震建议。研究结果表明:汶川地震造成可移动文物震害除了地震本身因素外,文物防震措施不足是一个重要原因;为保证可移动文物的防震性能,首先应规范博物馆建筑抗震设计,其次考虑陈列台隔震技术应用,最后再考虑可移动文物与陈列台之间的可靠连接;采取先进的隔震技术对可移动文物的防震具有促进作用。     

Stochastic Modeling of Earthquake Scenarios in Greater Tehran

Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants, has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment for the area. The main objective of this article is to present a probabilistic procedure to construct time series compatible with the source-path and site reflecting the influence of different magnitude events at different distances that may occur during a specified time period. A Monte Carlo approach is used to generate numerous synthetic catalogs for the evaluation of the probabilistic seismic hazard in greater Tehran over hard rock site for a return period of 475 years. The disaggregation of the seismic hazard is carried out to identify hazard-dominating events and to associate them with one or more specific faults, rather than a given distance. The stochastic finite-fault technique based on region specific seismic parameters is used to generate time series of earthquake scenario.     

A LOGIC TREE EXTENSION OF THE CAPACITY SPECTRUM METHOD DEVELOPED TO ESTIMATE SEISMIC RISK IN OSLO,NORWAY

The city of Oslo, Norway, was affected by a magnitude 5.4 earthquake in 1904 causing widespread minor damage. The earthquake occurred around 100 km south of Oslo within the Permean rift structure that runs North-South along the Oslofjord, and deep clay deposits under the city contributed to the damages. A seismic risk scenario including soil amplification and buildings classifications has been conducted with two earthquake sources, one very close to the city and one near the 1904 epicenter. Both scenarios exhibit strong dependencies on the soft clays underlying large parts of Oslo. The results confirm the 1904 effects, but also show a strong dependency on the applied attenuation functions. All computations are based on the capacity-spectrum method, and the predefined pushover curves and vulnerability functions were adopted from the HAZUS code. With this basis, the computational scheme was developed independent from the GIS framework, and a weighted logic tree formulation was implemented for appropriate treatment of epistemic uncertainties.     

The timescale and mechanisms of fault sealing and water‐rock interaction after an earthquake

Hydrogeochemical monitoring of a basalt‐hosted aquifer, which contains Ice Age meteoric water and is situated at 1220 m below sea level in the Tjörnes Fracture Zone, northern Iceland, has been ongoing since July 2002. Based on hydrogeochemical changes following an earthquake of magnitude (M_w) 5.8 on 16 September 2002, we constrained the timescales of post‐seismic fault sealing and water–rock interaction. We interpret that the earthquake ruptured a hydrological barrier, permitting a rapid influx of chemically and isotopically distinct Ice Age meteoric water from a second aquifer. During the two subsequent years, we monitored a chemical and isotopic recovery towards pre‐earthquake aquifer compositions, which we interpret to have been mainly facilitated by fault‐sealing processes. This recovery was interrupted in November 2004 by a second rupturing event, which was probably induced by two minor earthquakes and which reopened the pathway to the second aquifer. We conclude that the timescale of fault sealing was approximately 2 years and that the approach to isotopic equilibrium (from global meteoric water line) was approximately 18% after >10⁴ years.     

Fore-Arc and Back-Arc Ground Motion Prediction Model for Vrancea Intermediate Depth Seismic Source

A next generation ground motion model for the prediction of spectral accelerations both in the fore-arc and back-arc regions of the Carpathians Mountains is developed in this research for the Vrancea intermediate depth seismic source in Romania. This ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) is an updated version of the model given in Vacareanu et al. [2014] and is applicable in both the fore-arc and the back-arc regions. The strong ground motion database from which the prediction model is derived consists of over 700 triaxial accelerograms from Vrancea subcrustal seismic events, as well as from other intermediate-depth earthquakes produced in other seismically active regions in the world. The applicability of this ground motion prediction model in both the fore-arc and the back-arc region is tested using the analysis of residuals. Moreover, the appropriateness of this GMPE for soil classes B and C defined in EN 1998-1, as well as for average soil conditions is investigated. All results suggest that this model is an improvement of the previous versions of ground motion prediction equations for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source and its use in both the fore-arc and the back-arc regions make it a reliable candidate for more accurate seismic hazard studies of Romania.     

Comparing expeditious procedures for the seismic vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context: reliability,feasibility, cost,and time consumption

ABSTRACT

The definition of strategies for the preservation and protection of cultural heritage is a topical issue, especially in view of the increasing relevance of the theme of seismic risk mitigation and reduction.

The prediction of the impact an earthquake could have on existing buildings requires the knowledge of their dynamic behaviour. The procedure to be adopted for this purpose is quite complex and onerous in terms of costs, time, and implementation, especially when the study concerns territorial areas rather than single buildings. The definition of methodologies aimed at respecting the principles of economic sustainability and preserving human life and architectural heritage is of paramount importance to assess seismic vulnerability using available resources. Rapid methods for the seismic vulnerability assessment, aimed at defining buildings vulnerability and intervention priority lists, must be implemented to guarantee the preservation of historical centers.

This article describes the application to some case studies of different methods aimed at creating fragility curves for the vulnerability assessment on the European territorial context. The comparison between a deterministic approach and a new probabilistic one is performed for all case studies, to define the most suitable methodology in terms of reliability and savings in cost and time.