深圳市民迁居特征的时空分析

城市发展初期,大量域外劳动力迁入城市,促使城市地域迅速扩张。但当城市发展到一定阶段以后,城市人口的机械增长下降为次要因素,而城市地域内部的人口迁居成为影响城市发展以及内部空间结构变化的主导因素。本文以深圳市民问卷调查所得第一手资料为基础,通过对市民迁移性、迁居空间类型、迁居原因等的时空间分析,得到深圳市民迁居的时空间特征,并指出未来深圳市民迁居的空间趋势,以为城市内部空间结构调整提供参考。     

COMPARATIVE REGIONAL POLICY IMPACT ANALYSIS: EX POST EVALUATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF THE EUROPEAN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT FUND*

ABSTRACT. This paper addresses the issue of ex post impact analysis of regional policies in the European Community. The analysis is both methodological and applied in nature. After a concise overview of existing impact assessment methods, a two-step approach by means of an exploratory frequency method and an explanatory rational expectations-based model is proposed in order to provide an empirical framework for cross-regional comparative evaluation of the performance of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). The seope and applicability of the method is illustrated by means of a case study for Dutch regions.     

贫困人口扶贫政策获得感评价与提升路径研究——以马斯洛需求层次理论为视角

以马斯洛需求层次理论为视角,运用大别山片区微观调研数据,通过理论分析与数理推导,构建结构方程模型,对贫困人口扶贫政策获得感进行综合评价与提升路径研究。结果表明:贫困人口物质需求、安全需求、社交需求、公平需求、能力需求在一定程度上得到满足后均能对其扶贫政策获得感的提升产生正向促进作用,且位于需求层次高低两端的物质需求与能力需求的正向促进作用最强;各维度正向促进作用在不同脱贫状态群体中差异性较大,能力需求对于已脱贫群体获得感提升的影响更为显著;大别山片区整体贫困人口扶贫政策获得感较高,各维度上指数得分差异性较小,但不同地区间存在一定差距。基于研究结果,本文提出一些贫困人口扶贫政策获得感提升路径。     

EVALUATION OF ACCIDENTAL ECCENTRICITY IN BUILDINGS DUE TO ROTATIONAL COMPONENT OF EARTHQUAKE

This study adopts a random procedure in the evaluation of the effect of the rotational component of earthquake on the accidental eccentricity of symmetric and asymmetric buildings. The spectral density function of the rotational component of earthquake acceleration (about the vertical axis) is obtained on the basis of the spectral density function of the horizontal component of earthquake acceleration. The rotational component of an earthquake can increase the response of the structure. The degree of the increase is highly dependent upon the dynamic characteristics of the system and the rotational component of the earthquake. To bring this increase under consideration, seismic codes represent a parameter referred to as accidental eccentricity, as a part of the design eccentricity. The purpose of the present study is to estimate the value of this increase and to make appropriate suggestions based on frequency domain analysis.     

THE ASSUMPTIONS OF POLICY ANALYSIS

The preconditions of policy making are a concern in a human mind about some situation, actual or hypothetical, which is perceived as important and the conceived possibility that human action could make it better. Perceptions of the situation and of its origins and of the scope if any for acting on it and the actions conceived as available vary immensely with the culture of the society involved; and they change with time. This theme is illustrated by a brief summary of British political and cultural responses to poverty and to unemployment in the last hundred years.     

基于全局主成分分析的我国省级行政区城市化水平综合评价

根据城市化的内涵,选取13个指标,以1995年、2000年和2005年3个年份全国31个省级行政区为评价对象,构成城市化综合评价立体时序数据表;采用全局主成分分析方法,对其城市化发展水平进行综合定量评价。共提取三个主成分,分别反映人口结构及城市景观变化、城镇居民收入及消费水平、城市基础设施建设方面的信息。分析结果表明,我国城市化发展质量和速度的区域差异明显;在分析期内,城市化发展的总体质量有所提高;城市内部主要指标之间的协调性较好。     

THE SOURCES OF PUBLIC POLICY: WELFARE POLICY IN THE AMERICAN STATES

The conceptualization of political and economic determinants of public policy as interactive rather than sufficient causes is subjected here to a comparative state analysis. An examination of interactive effects of culture, wealth, and gubernatorial power on AFDC grants and Medicaid benefits offers empirical illustration of Stonecash's reconceptualization of the classic politics-process-policy model. The results indicate that political dispositions become more potent in combination with increasing concentrations of wealth and executive power.