STATE REVENUE ELASTICITY AND EXPENDITURE GROWTH

Recent analyses and theories of public choice suggest faster public sector expansion in states with highly elastic revenue structures. This paper estimates the contribution of elasticity of tax revenues to the growth of expenditures in the 50 American states since 1960, based on elasticity measures for state revenue sources compiled by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations, an index of state tax structural change, and controls for federal aid to states, population increase, and per capita growth in real income. Results for 1960-1970 show a small positive relationship between revenue elasticity and expenditure growth, but this becomes weak and negative for 1970-1976. Spending has increased most in states with the least elastic revenue sources; these states have made considerable changes in tax laws, while states with elastic revenue sources have been more likely to cut taxes than to increase spending. Federal aid, rather than tax elasticity, is the best predictor of state expenditure growth, while legislative changes in tax structure have enabled states to keep pace with rising demand for revenue due to growth in population and real income.     

THE LONG-RUN ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF FEDERAL,STATE, AND LOCAL FISCAL POLICIES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS*

ABSTRACT. This paper uses new estimates of metropolitan factor demand and output supply functions to study how federal, state, and local fiscal policies affect metropolitan economies. We illustrate our work with findings for ten metropolitan areas in five states for changes in state corporate income taxes, local property taxes, the federal corporate income tax, an investment tax credit, interest rates, public capital stocks, output prices, and tax and regulatory policies affecting gross wages. It is clear from these simulations that a policy that is nominally the same everywhere will have repercussions that vary widely across regions and cities.     

Child Poverty in the American States: The Impact of Welfare Reform,Economics, and Demographics

This article identifies the predictors of child poverty rates at the state level before and after the adoption and implementation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. The analysis shows that the most important state‐level factors that influence child poverty rates are demographics, the health and viability of the state economy, and often the generosity, inclusiveness, and quality of state welfare programs. States with large numbers of black citizens, and those that score highest on infant mortality, teen births, births to unmarried women, children living with a parent without a high school degree, and children living with a single parent have the highest rates of child poverty. Child poverty rates are lowest in states that suffer less unemployment, and in wealthier states. States that score higher on per capita personal income, tax revenues, and taxable resources have lower child poverty rates. While specific “tough” welfare policies adopted by some states seem to have no impact on child poverty rates, we tested for the first time a sophisticated measure of the overall quality of state welfare programs. The analysis reveals that the global quality of a state's welfare programs is often an independent predictor of child poverty. States with the most generous, inclusive, and supportive welfare programs have done the best job of lowering and containing child poverty.     

The Politics of Motor Fuel Taxes and Infrastructure Funds in France and the United States

The US. and France have adopted contrasting models of motor fuel tax and highway finance policy. Fuel tax revenues are dedicated to state and federal highway funds in America, keeping taxes quite low, but preventing them from contributing to the general treasury. French motor fuel taxes are higher and make up nearly 11 percent of the central government's general revenues, excluding social security contributions. French highway finance relies heavily on tolls. Pressure from the US. federal deficit has reduced the highway trust fund's ability to protect highway spending from budgetary competition. Political and procedural changes in Congress make it likely that the U.S.will move away from exclusive dedication of motor fuel taxes.     

THE PROBLEM OF HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT: RESULT OF MUDDLED NATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICIES

During 1953 through 1979 estimated, the U.S. economy has exhibited a roller-coaster economic performance–six periods of inadequate upturn, stagnation, and recession, with a chronic rise in unemployment because each upturn at its peak has tended to leave us with more unemployment than the previous one. During the period as a whole, we have forfeited 7.1 trillion 1978 dollars in GNP and 80.8 million years of civilian employment opportunities, and consequently lost about 1.8 trillion dollars in public revenues at all levels, with severe neglect of national priorities, and chronically rising Federal Budget deficits. This sorry record is due primarily to reliance upon a “trade-off” between unemployment and inflation. But empirical evidence for more than a quarter century has demonstrated that inflation rises as unused capabilities increase and vice versa. The annual inflation rate during the first half of 1979 exceeded 13 percent despite recession; it ranged from 1.6–3.0 percent during periods close to full employment. We now need thorough reconstruction of national economic policies, including abandonment of (1) the unemployment-inflation “trade-off,” (2) attempts to balance the federal budget at the expense of the economy and the people, (3) the prevalent monetary policy with soaring interest rates, and (4) excessive reliance on tax reductions in lieu of increased public outlays or investment. These changes would replace improvised and frequently conflicting national economic policies with comprehensive and coherent efforts. All this is in accord with the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978     

Who Pays the Costs of Inflation?

Inflation may be looked upon as a deferred consumption tax which reduces consumer purchasing power through high prices to compensate for earlier excess expansions of credit. A portion of this excess borrowing is by government to finance deficits. The inflation cost may then be compared by family–income class with the alternative income taxes needed to avoid inflation by eliminating the deficits. By this calculation for 1965–75, the inflation cost was highly regressive, with an effective rate of 17 percent on. families below $5,000, and 17 times greater than such families would have had to pay in income taxes. Meantime, the effective inflationary tax rate for wealthy families over $50,000 in income was a bonus, or tax rebate, of one percent.     

Resources Versus Results: Comparative Performance of State Highway Systems, 1984–1990

This article compares the relative performance of the U.S. and the 50 state highway systems against resources available, over the period 1984–1990. Data are collected on 13 measures of revenues, expenditures, pavement condition, congestion, bridge condition, and accidents. Statistics are normalized to control the effects of size and inflation. Each state's performance is then graded according to whether the state is making progress, holding steady, or losing ground relative to the national trends. Findings show that the U.S. highway system is in good condition and is continuing to improve: even statistics on congestion are now beginning to show improvement. Against this general improvement six states have been able to maintain or improve their highway systems with considerably less resources per mile than other states. These states are New Mexico, South Dakota, Wyoming, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Arkansas. Each of these stales seems to have a combination of geography, traffic, economic structure, and fiscal capability that results in particularly cost-effective highway systems. The findings suggest that simplistic explanations of performance based on location, urban/rural distinctions, weather, climate, or taxes are inadequate; more research is needed to explain the causes of these differences.     

Treatment or Placebo: Are State Programs Decreasing the Proportion of Uninsured?

Currently there are over 45 million Americans without health insurance. Recent growth in Medicaid and State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) enrollment of children has filled in the sizable gap created by decreased employer‐sponsored insurance since 2000. While the share of children who are uninsured actually decreased between 2000 and 2003, little progress was made in expanding public insurance to adults. As a result, advocates and policymakers at the federal and state level are searching for approaches to deal with the growing number of the uninsured. Conservatives advocate encouraging individuals to buy private insurance while liberals advocate the provision of health coverage through publicly financed health care. Using a 50‐state multilevel individual growth model, this study estimates the net effect of two state approaches in terms of reducing the uninsured: tax incentives (the conservative approach) and direct‐coverage programs (the liberal approach). The results suggest that these approaches have not achieved the results that many advocates had suggested. In the case of tax incentives, the results suggest that states with tax incentives experience increases in the rate of the uninsured. In the case of direct‐coverage programs, results suggest that states receive no relief in the number of uninsured individuals. Finally, the analysis suggests that the efforts originating at the federal level are most successful. These programs are a continuation of the incremental approach policymakers in America have taken to address the problem of the uninsured, rather than taking steps toward a truly comprehensive solution.     

Direct Taxation and State–Society Relations in Lagos,Nigeria

Existing research suggests that external sources of finance, such as foreign aid and natural resource rents, allow states to generate revenue independently of their societies, disincentivizing them from forming close links with their citizens and severely problematizing the notion of a social contract. In Lagos, Nigeria's commercial capital, a series of personal income tax reforms have seen an increase in taxpayer compliance. Considering Lagosians’ perceptions of their relation with the state government, this study examines whether the state had to ‘earn’ its revenue by developing a closer relationship with its citizens, and whether citizens responded through a greater willingness to pay tax. It explores how citizens understand this relationship, what role they perceive themselves to fulfil, and what their expectations are for the future of state–society relations. The study shows how, through efforts to visibly link tax to service delivery, a social contract is emerging between Lagos State and its citizens — but that this relationship differs among groups, in that it is shaped by pre‐existing concepts of public organization and modes of political engagement.     

The Four Good Dissenters in Pollock

The overall theme of this lecture series is great dissenters. This contribution to the series is on the dissenters in the 1895 case of Pollock v. Farmers' Trust & Loan Co. In Pollock, the Supreme Court decided, by a vote of 5–4, that the 1894 federal income tax was unconstitutional. The four dissenters—Justice Henry Brown of Michigan, Justice John Marshall Harlan of Kentucky, Justice Howell Jackson of Tennessee, and future Chief Justice Edward D. White—would have upheld the tax.     

Federalism,constitutional recognition and Indigenous Peoples: how a new identity-based state can be established in Australia

ABSTRACT

The debate on constitutional recognition of Indigenous Peoples in Australia has highlighted the desire for meaningful responses to Indigenous Peoples’ claims to sovereignty and self-determination. One potential response is to apply federal principles and establish a new state, or states, for Indigenous Peoples in Australia. This proposal has been most prominently put by Tasmanian Aboriginal leader Michael Mansell. Others have followed. However, (at least) one fundamental problem with this federal idea has not been properly addressed, namely the dispersal and limited geographical concentration of Indigenous people in Australia. This paper asks whether and how federalism can be used to institutionalise the shared and self-rule of widely dispersed minorities, or more specifically, Indigenous Peoples in the settler-majority country of Australia. It demonstrates that a non-territorial approach can be applied to federalism in Australia, and that it may form one possible response to the Uluru Statement from the Heart.     

DEFENSE SPENDING AND STATE ECONOMIC GROWTH*

Little evidence is currently available on the regional growth effects of federal defense spending. In this study, econometric models for state personal income and manufacturing employment between 1976 and 1985 are specified and estimated. Pooled cross-sectional time-series data are used, and the estimation procedure corrects for serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and contemporaneous cross-sectional correlation. The results indicate that aggregate defense spending has a positive effect on both growth measures. However, when defense expenditures are disaggregated, only investment-type outlays appear to consistently affect state economic growth.     

Regulating Local Tax Abatement Policies

This article addresses several questions about property tax. abatements in the United States, all directed at why tax abatements should be regulated more closely, and one question about how this might be accomplished. First, are tax abatements “job increment financing” since they are exchanged for future jobs? Public decisionmakers assume that jobs mean tax revenues, but problems emerge when abatements are granted without knowledge of expected jobs, or if local government administrators and planners have no means of holding businesses accountable if their promises are not kept. Second, are local decisionmakers behaving imprudently when they abate multiyear taxes? Using abatements may not always be a particularly prudent way of using public resources. Third, can tax abatements undermine local democracy? Abatements weaken public involvement in city government when citizens have few opportunities to debate decisionmakers about tax exemptions, but they should have such a chance because abatements have costly, longlasting effects on current and future citizens. Fourth, do abatements create social costs? Tax abatements generate external effects for those who are not party to the politics of tax exemptions, but there are no easy answers about how to correct the externalities. Finally, what are the options for stopping tax abatements? These include federal prohibition, cooperative agreements, federal fiscal incentives, the courts, tougher negotiating tactics, and more stringent contractual provisions by urban planners and administrators.     

The Tax Threshold: Policy, Principles, and Poverty

In the absence of an independent poverty standard, postwar Britishgovernments have tended to use current, politically determinedsocial security scales (from Unemployment Assistance in the1930s to Income Support today) as their definition of minimallyadequate income levels, commonly known as an ‘officialpoverty line’. A basic principle of taxation since thedays of Adam Smith, however, has been that incomes below theminimum income required for socially defined necessities shouldbe free of tax. The personal tax allowance which determinesthe income tax-paying threshold thus also provides a practicaldefinition of such an official poverty line. Royal Commissionsand official committees since the nineteenth century have endorsedSmith's principle, but it only acquired major political significanceafter the Second World War when income tax began to affect lowearners, particularly after the 1960s when poverty was ‘rediscovered’in the UK. In spite of this potential coincidence of purpose,a review of evidence and interviews with officials shows thatthere has been no co-ordination of policy between the Treasuryand Inland Revenue responsible for determining the level ofthe tax allowances, and the Social Security ministries responsiblefor the minimum benefit scales. The tax threshold has consequentlycontinued to be determined by considerations of political economyand administration and not by the alleviation of poverty. ^* This paper is part of a larger project on concepts of povertyand need in British income maintenance systems, chiefly the‘Assistance’ schemes which ran from 1934 to 1966.I am grateful to the many people who have helped with the project,regrettably too numerous to name here. I am particularly indebtedto Sir Norman Price and Sir Kenneth Stowe, James Meade, DellaNevitt, and). Leonard Nicholson for information on the tax issues,and want to record my thanks to them and to Fran Bennett, JohnHills, Chris Pond, and Adrian Sinfield, and especially RodneyLowe, as well as participants in seminars at the Universitiesof Edinburgh and Essex, and in Budapest, for their advice onthis paper.     

Population density and the accuracy of the land valuations in the 1798 federal direct tax

Abstract

The peculiar operation of the 1798 federal direct tax has led scholars to question whether tax officials reported the land valuations from their districts faithfully. Peter Lindert and Jeffrey Williamson argue that southern tax assessors systemically under reported the value of southern real estate, and they adjust their income estimates to account for the likelihood of corruption. This paper affirms the reliability of the tax returns by demonstrating that population density, rather than corruption or lax enforcement, can explain nearly all of the variation between the assessment districts. Accepting the tax valuations as accurate would lower Lindert and Williamson’s income estimates, imply slower growth rate between 1774 and 1800, and suggest a higher growth rate between 1800 and 1850.     

Globalisation and the dilemmas of income taxation in Australia

Over the past two decades there has been a worldwide fall in statutory corporate tax (CT) rates. Focusing on Australia, this article establishes three empirical facts which challenge much of the existing literature. First, CT competition was the crucial driving force behind CT cuts. Second, policy makers had to abandon tax‐related investment incentives in order to pay for lower CT rates. This broadening of the CT base is costly, because it potentially disadvantages domestic firms and may, over the longer term, erode the CT base. Third, CT cuts have put pressure on the personal income tax base, as low corporate rates provide tax avoidance opportunities for high‐income earners.     

Performance Goal Achievement in Fiscal Federalism: The Influence of State Partisan Environments and Regulatory Regimes

With tight budgets and hyper‐partisan interactions within and between the states and federal government, attention is being paid to the implementation of federal programs. This is particularly important because, as the recently implemented American Recovery and Reinvestment Act suggests, state administrators are often the implementers of federal policy. This study integrates the fiscal federalism literature with that on implementation and bureaucratic response to examine the effect that within‐state factors have on the degree of performance goal achievement in federally funded, state implemented programs. The findings suggest that, when implementing federal programs, state administrators face conflicting political incentive structures and policy‐specific capacity and capability deficits that influence their motivation and ability to achieve performance goals.     

THE EFFECTS OF METROPOLITAN JOB GROWTH ON THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FAMILY INCOME*

ABSTRACT. This article examines how a metropolitan area's job growth affects its income distribution, using CPS data from 1979 to 1988. Metropolitan growth increases the poorest quintile's income by a greater percentage than for the average family. Metropolitan growth also increases the value of property owned by the richest quintiles. Economic development programs to increase local growth will have a net progressive effect if the cost per job created is low, and these costs are financed by personal taxes. But programs with a high cost per job, or financed by cutting welfare, will reduce the net income of the poorest quintile.     

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the country's money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.     

TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MANUFACTURING FURTHER EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES*

In this paper, we first develop a measure of total factor productivity (TFP) growth and summarize a source-of-growth analysis for the manufacturing sector of 48 states. As have others, we find little association between TFP growth differentials and output growth differentials for census regions. At the staterather than the regional level, however, we find a positive association between TFP growth and output growth. We use cross-sectional data to estimate the determinants of the variation in TFP growth. Two results emerge that are important for regional policy and for understanding national productivity trends. First, state investments in education and in transportation infrastructure may affect TFP growth. Second, energy price increases in the early 1970s had no differential effects on productivity growth across states. We also explore the determinants of manufacturing output growth and find that TFP growth, demand growth, wage growth, wage levels, and state corporate income tax rates are significant.