基于“推—拉”理论的美国旅游者旅华流动影响因素研究

"推—拉"理论是研究人口流动的一种基础理论,可以有效地解释游客流动。本文从推—拉理论的视角,运用因子分析、单因素方差分析和皮尔逊相关分析等方法对美国来华旅游者的流动影响因素进行研究,得到的主要结论有:(1)明确了美国来华旅游者推力维度和拉力维度的各个因子;(2)检测了推拉维度的各因子受社会人口统计学变量的影响;(3)测度了推拉维度各因子之间的相互关联性及影响因素。研究成果对指导我国针对主要入境旅游客源国进行的产品开发和市场营销具有一定的实践价值,同时也拓展了对影响旅游流流动各因素之间关系研究的范畴。     

IMPACT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION MEASURES ON THE U.S. ECONOMY

A rapid deterioration in the quality of the environment in the United States has compelled the Government to take a series of actions, including the enactment of remedial legislation. However, the environmental protection measures taken have begun to markedly influence the country's economy, resulting in redistribution of some industries, e.g., the coal mining industry, and in a reduction in the output of some products, for example, a decline in lead production due to the use of nonleaded gasoline. The problems of environmental protection are not purely natural-scientific or technological, but also socio-economic and, hence, class problems. In a capitalist society, environmental protection measures have to be implemented under conditions of sharp conflict between a public value, such as the environment, and private ownership of the means of production, which pollute that environment. (The paper is based largely on materials gathered by the author during a stay of nearly six months in 1974–75 at the University of Illinois. The translation is by R. Bruce Wood, University of Illinois, Urbana.)     

CONCEPTS OF RISK AND SAFETY IN TOXIC SUBSTANCES REGULATION: A COMPARISON OF FRANCE AND THE U.S.

The notions of risk and safety which play a conspicuous role in the regulation of toxic substances have shown a markedly different evolution in France and the United States. American law has moved toward the development of statutory criteria of risk assessment, balancing both the costs and benefits of regulation, while the French legislator has consistently avoided a substantive elaboration of safety concepts through legal texts. This contrast is documented and its implications for the discretionary authority of regulating agencies discussed. Divergent national patterns are explained with reference to four factors distinguishing the legal and political systems of the two countries.     

PLANNING: LESSONS FROM THE U.S.S.R.

Evaluation of the success of a plan requires the collection of statistics and indicators for monitoring purposes. In the health care field, outcomes are notoriously difficult to measure. To the extent that a successful program of prevention should result in providing less of a service, a conflict exists between planning and prevention: in the absence of outcome measures, success will be indistinguishable from failure, as in both cases, planned targets would not be met. To avoid this dilemma, an indicator-oriented planning system would be predicted to operationalize prevention in countable terms requiring increased inputs, or increased numbers of processes, regardless of the payoffs in health benefits. Screening, check-ups, and one-on-one contacts with health professionals would be emphasized at the expense of group-oriented activities or societal changes. Planning can thus have counter-productive policy implications. This theory is illustrated by reference to the current health care system in the U.S.S.R., including their anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism programmes.     

CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.