美国城市旅游

美国城市旅游对我国发展都市旅游有借鉴意义。本介绍了美国在散客旅游方式、旅游交通、城市旅游资源开发、旅游宣传资料以及旅馆业经营方式方面的一些做法。     

美国城市种族居住隔离与黑人贫困化

对于美国黑人聚居区环境的产生和发展,居住隔离起到了直接的作用。居住隔离使美国大多数黑人处于从属地位,处于主流社会的边缘,并使黑人贫困持久化,进而加速了黑人经济地位的下降,使许多美国黑人陷入贫困的隔离居住环境不能自拔。     

美国对奥地利政策的演变（1945—1955年）

第二次世界大战结束以后 ,美国对奥地利政策偏离了《莫斯科宣言》的方向 ,将奥地利作为被盟国解放的国家 ,反对追究奥地利的战争责任 ,极力推动奥地利的经济复兴和国内秩序稳定。美国国家安全委员会第 38 4号文件和第 1 6 4 1号文件乃是美国对奥地利政策的重要纲领。美国以奥地利只能向苏联支付实物赔偿和武装中立为条件 ,同意签署《奥地利国家条约》。促进奥地利的亲西方倾向 ,成为美国对奥地利政策的长期目标与重要特点。     

马丁·麦乐西与美国城市环境史研究

马丁·麦乐西教授是美国著名的环境史学家,曾经担任“美国环境史学会”(1993-1995年)、“公共史全国委员会”(1992-1993年)和“公共工程历史学会”(1988-1989年)的主席。本文分为两个部分。第一部分从理论基础、概念界定、功能发挥以及具体的历史研究成果等方面介绍了他的城市环境史成就。第二部分是作者对马丁教授的访谈,他就城市环境史与农业生态史的关系、自然环境与人工环境的关系、技术在城市环境史中的作用、环境正义运动的性质等问题进一步阐述了自己的观点。另外,本文在注释中附有朱尔·A·塔尔教授对相关问题的简要回答。     

美国对韩国的援助政策：缘起、演进与结果

在冷战背景下 ,对外援助是美国巩固与盟国关系、与苏联争夺新独立的第三世界的重要手段。美国对韩国的援助亦然。从最初的占领区救济性援助开始 ,美国对韩援助的内容伴随援助政策的调整不断发生变化。从结果来看 ,援助帮助韩国建立并维护了资本主义的发展模式 ,军事援助孕育了美国化的军队 ,为军事政变和韩国政治发展模式埋下了伏笔。     

The Location Choice of Employment‐based Immigrants among U.S. Metro Areas*

Abstract. This paper examines the initial location choice of legal employment‐based immigrants to the United States using Immigration and Naturalization Service data on individual immigrants, as well as economic, demographic, and social data to characterize the 298 metropolitan areas we define as the universal choice set. Focusing on interactions between place characteristics and immigrant characteristics, we provide multinomial logit model estimates for the location choices of about 38,000 employment‐based immigrants to the United States in 1995, focusing on the top 10 source countries. We find that, as groups, immigrants from nearly all countries are attracted to large cities with superior climates, and to cities with relatively well‐educated adults and high wages. We also find evidence that employment‐based immigrants tend to choose cities where there are relatively few immigrants of nationalities other than their own. However, when we introduce interaction terms to account for the sociodemographic characteristics of the individual immigrants, we find that the estimated effects of location destination factors can reverse as one takes account of the age, gender, marital status, and previous occupation of the immigrants.     

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.     

美国对以色列的政策及美以关系的发展（1948-1958）

以色列是在美国的支持下建立的。战后,美国通过插手巴勒斯坦事务,逐步从英国手中夺取处理该地区事务的主动权。在以色列建国伊始,美国给予这一新生国家巨大的帮助。但在战略上,美国并未将以色列视作特别重点考虑对象。在第二次中东战争结束以后,以色列开始受到特别关注,其在美中东战略中的地位和作用日渐突出。本文利用美国解密的档案材料及国内外学者的有关著述,对以建国初期(1948至1958年)美国对以色列的策略及美以关系的发展进行梳理与分析,希望有助于深刻理解美以特殊战略关系的形成及美以关系发展的现状。     

1953年东德事件与美国对苏东"演变"战略的起源

研究冷战高潮时期苏东地区的重大政治事件与美国针对苏东内部事态的政策演进历程,有助于更准确地认识“演变”战略的起源与性质。本所利用的档案材料表明,1953年的东德事件对美国决策层初步反省原先过于露骨的旨在激发或助长苏东内部社会紧张乃至“造反”行动的“激变”战略,开始酝酿“演变”战略产生了重要影响。“演变”战略的特征在美国对东德事件的反应中已初露端倪。这一政策转变的原因,除了原有政策在实践中的弊端和斯大林之后苏东形势的变化,也与美国决策的战略指导思想有关。     

PLANNING: LESSONS FROM THE U.S.S.R.

Evaluation of the success of a plan requires the collection of statistics and indicators for monitoring purposes. In the health care field, outcomes are notoriously difficult to measure. To the extent that a successful program of prevention should result in providing less of a service, a conflict exists between planning and prevention: in the absence of outcome measures, success will be indistinguishable from failure, as in both cases, planned targets would not be met. To avoid this dilemma, an indicator-oriented planning system would be predicted to operationalize prevention in countable terms requiring increased inputs, or increased numbers of processes, regardless of the payoffs in health benefits. Screening, check-ups, and one-on-one contacts with health professionals would be emphasized at the expense of group-oriented activities or societal changes. Planning can thus have counter-productive policy implications. This theory is illustrated by reference to the current health care system in the U.S.S.R., including their anti-smoking and anti-alcoholism programmes.     

COINTEGRATION BETWEEN U.S. WHEAT MARKETS

ABSTRACT. Average monthly price data from twelve hinterland markets and the Houston port price for wheat are studied in a cointegration framework using the Engle-Granger "two-step" procedure and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure. Out-of-sample forecasts from an error correction model are compared to those from a vector autoregression fit to levels and a univariate autoregression fit to first differences. This comparison suggests that modeling these (cointegrated) data as a levels vector autoregression, rather than as an error-correction process, results in significantly higher error bias, but lower error variance, at long horizons.