长江三角洲都市连绵区城市规模结构演变研究

本文选取长江三角洲都市连绵区7个年份的城市人口规模数据,分别从城市规模等级结构、首位度、城市规模分形以及城市规模的空间演化等层面对城市规模结构的演变进行了分析,初步揭示了长江三角洲都市连绵区规模结构的分布特征和演变规律,并对其空间演变特征进行了总结。     

The urbanisation of Java, 2000–2010: towards ‘the island of mega-urban regions’

The mega-urbanisation process in Java is reflected in the spatial patterns of urban population growth between 2000 and 2010, although there has been a small deceleration in the rate of growth recently. This process is also clearly indicated in the significant increase in the number of urban localities, which reflects in situ urbanisation and rural–urban transformation in Java. Most districts and cities located adjacent to large cities experienced much higher population growth rates, compared to the core areas in cities. The formation of urban belts with a mix of economic activities connecting large cities is greatly expanding, while the small and medium cities, those with population sizes between 100,000 to one million, have tended to stagnate as their role and functions as centres of socio-economic activities are taken over by the large cities. Java’s mega-urbanisation appears unstoppable, and is largely uncontrolled at the present time. It is a daunting challenge for the central and local governments to manage the spatial urban growth in Java in the near future.     

Urbanization patterns: European versus less developed countries

This paper develops a model in which the interaction between transport costs, increasing returns to scale, and labor migration across sectors and regions creates a tendency for urban agglomeration. Demand from rural areas favors urban dispersion. European urbanization took place mainly in the 19th century, with higher costs of spatial interaction, weaker economies of scale, and a less-elastic supply of labor to the urban sector than in less developed countries (LDCs) today. These factors could help explain why primate cities dominate in LDCs, whereas a comparatively small share of urban population lives in Europe's largest cities.     

Elastic labor supply and agglomeration

This study analyzes the interplay between the agglomeration of economic activities and interregional differences in working hours, which are typically longer in large cities, as they are normally more developed than small cities. For this purpose, we develop a two‐region model with endogenous labor supply. Although we assume a symmetric distribution of immobile workers, the symmetric equilibrium breaks in the sense that firms may agglomerate when trade costs are intermediate and labor supply is elastic. We also show that the price index is always lower, while labor supply, per capita income, real wages, and welfare are always higher in the more agglomerated region.     

The Planning of the Distribution of Production in Population Centers and Some Problems in Population Geography

A government official outlines some of the Soviet problems of settlement to which answers are expected from population geographers. They include: restrictions on excessive growth of large cities; promotion of industrial plant location in small and medium-size cities suffering from underemployment; prediction of ultimate population of large cities; determination of the optimal size and type of rural population centers. Population geographers are called upon to study large cities with a view to determining where further concentration of industry should be prohibited, and to select small cities suitable for plant location.     

中国收缩城市土地利用效率及其影响因素研究

依据人口统计数据与NPP-VIIR夜间灯光影像识别出2013-2017年中国收缩城市,运用超效率SBM模型测算收缩城市土地利用效率,并构建Tobit模型分析其影响因素.结果发现:①2013-2017年,收缩城市土地利用效率均值降低了1.44％,且各年份均低于增长城市与全部城市.实现土地有效利用的收缩城市占比较小,大多数...     

The Rayon Seats of the USSR in the System of Services

The administrative centers of rayons (county-type civil divisions) are viewed as key elements in the provision of services in the USSR. The effectiveness of rayon seats as service centers is analyzed in terms of the category of places serving as rayon seats (small cities; urban-type settlements [towns]; rural places), mean rayon population, area and radius, and the mean transport accessibility of the rayon center. The existence of a small city with a high level of services in a small rayon, as in the Baltic region, Belorussia, Moldavia and parts of the Ukraine, is viewed as optimal. Particular problems arise in Siberia and Kazakhstan, where the large size of rayons, low mean rayon population, big rayon radius and low transport accessibility combine to produce a low level of services. In such regions, a system of local service centers is advocated, with rayon seats performing the role of major regional centers.     

Urbanization Processes in North Vietnam

The pattern of urbanization of North Vietnam is traced from 1945 through 1960 to 1970. The average contribution of the in-migration component to urban growth was 40 percent from 1945 to 1965, but a slight net out-migration from cities marked the period of American bombings of North Vietnam after 1965. As a result urban population declined from 1.9 million in 1965 to 1.84 million in 1970, while total population of North Vietnam rose from 17.5 to 20 million. Urban growth has been distinguished by rapid rates of growth in large cities, low rates in middle-size cities, and no growth or even decline of population in the small urban places.     

Activity Levels at Hub Facilities in Interacting Networks

Hubs are a special type of central facility which are designed to act as switching points for intemodal flows. For instance, a set of ten interacting cities might all be connected to one of two major hubs. All flows between the cities would then be routed via the hubs. There is an obvious saving in the number of routes necessary to interconnect the cities when hubs are utilized, with a concomitant high level of activity at the facilities. This paper takes a heuristic approach to the evaluation of networks and hub locations to find locally optimal designs. It is shown that minimization of transportation costs may require assignment of nodes to a facility other than the nearest. A discount on the interhub transportation costs promotes a wider spacing of facilities. In a system with several hubs, minimization of total hub usage tends to concentrate demand very heavily into one central facility.     

吉林省城市体系等级规模结构研究

等级规模结构是城市体系的三大结构之一,其特征可以反映出城市在不同规模层次中的分布状况及城市人口集中或分散的程度,有助于认识城市体系发展所处的阶段。通过统计数据计算分析,运用分形理论,发现吉林省城市体系等级规模结构满足位序-规模分布规律,城市规模分布的均衡程度较高,中小城市比较发育,首位城市垄断作用不突出,缺乏大城市。在吉林省城市体系动态变化过程中,等级规模结构相对稳定且不断趋于集中。在此基础上提出重点培育通化、延吉等大城市;继续扩大长春规模,发挥整体效益;加强交通网络建设;加快矿业城市可持续发展等建议。     

中国城市产业结构的专业化与多样化特征分析

当前,我国正处于调整经济结构、转变增长方式的关键时期,各地区都把调整优化产业结构作为地区经济发展的核心内容。客观深入的分析城市尺度上产业结构的专业化和多样化水平及其时序特征,找出决定产业结构的关键因素,对于各地区如何依据已有产业基础、要素禀赋、区位特征合理构建高效、可持续的城市经济结构,以及在国家层面如何协调区域发展都具有十分重要的意义。本文利用2003—2009年全国286个地级市除农林牧渔外其它18个产业的就业数据,分析了我国城市的专业化、多样化水平及其演变规律,以及产业结构与地区大小、人口规模和经济发展水平之间的关系。本文的研究结果对于目前我国各地区和城市合理确定产业结构调整的方向和策略,以及在国家层面如何更有效协调区域发展具有一定的指导意义。     

改革开放以来中国县级以上政区名称变更及其问题探讨

自1978年始,为了发挥中心城市带动周围农村的作用,国家行政体制作出了重要改革,实行市领导县体制。随之各级行政区的数量、名称和范围发生了较大的变化。本文以1978-2007年国家民政部统计数字为准,对改革开放30年来,中国县级以上行政区域名称的变更进行了统计分析与研究,揭示了政区通名和专名的变更特点及影响因素,指出更名中存在的主要问题,最后提出县级以上行政区域名称的变更的对策和建议。     

Built environment and tourism as road safety determinants in Benidorm (Spain)

The rise in the number of urban road accidents is a challenge shared by all European cities, which seek to improve mobility while reducing transport problems. In recent years, urban road accidents in Spain have been constantly increasing and now account for a larger share of the total number of road accidents. This paper aims to analyse the impact of urban factors on road accidents. For this purpose, a small-scale analysis of land use and road infrastructure has been conducted in the town of Benidorm, one of the main tourist destinations in Spain. In addition, a regression analysis has been carried out using a Negative Binomial distribution. The results show that factors such as the level of mixed land uses, population density and road infrastructure are related to urban road accidents. The findings also reveal that tourism environments have a positive impact on pedestrian road safety. Small-scale analyses, particularly those related to exclusively-oriented environments, such as tourism developments, should be studied in detail in order to promote safety, liveability and sustainability in our cities.     

AGING NATIONS AND THE FUTURE OF CITIES*

ABSTRACT We investigate whether an aging population may challenge the supremacy of large working cities. To this end, we develop an economic geography model with two types of individuals (workers and retirees) and two sectors (local services and manufacturing). Workers produce and consume; the elderly consume only. As a result, the mobility decision of workers is driven by both the wage gap and the cost‐of‐living gap, unlike the elderly who react to the differences in the cost of living only. We show that the return of pre‐industrial urban system dominated by rentier cities does not seem to be on the agenda. Quite the opposite, the future of large working cities is still bright, the reason being that today's urban costs act as a strong force that prevents a large share of local services and manufacturing firms from following the rentiers in the elderly cities, while the supply of differentiated b2c services impede their complete separation.     

宋金元时期陇西、青东黄土高原地区城镇的发展

宋金元时期是陇西、青东地区城镇发展的重要阶段。北宋为经略陇右而在陇西、青东地区大修堡寨,促使城镇数量激增,形成畸形发展之势;金元时期,城镇数量的显著下降是城镇建设回归常态的反映。这一时期城镇数量的剧烈变化主要存在于县以下的小城镇,而县及县以上城镇的变化相对稳定。特殊的政治、军事、民族形势和国防的需要,是影响这一时期城镇发展的主要因素,在此基础上,陇西、青东地区的城镇在功能上形成综合性区域中心城镇、军事性城镇和商贸型城镇三大类型。     

The ripple effects of large-scale transport infrastructure investment

We analyze the general equilibrium effects of an asymmetric decrease in transport costs, combining a large-scale spatial dynamic general equilibrium model for 267 European NUTS-2 regions with a detailed transport model at the level of individual road segments. As a case study, we consider the impact of the road infrastructure investments in Central and Eastern Europe of the European Cohesion Policy. Our analysis suggests that the decrease in transportation costs benefits the targeted regions via substantial increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and welfare compared to the baseline, and a small increase in population. The geographic information embedded in the transport model leads to relatively large predicted benefits in peripheral countries such as Greece and Finland, which hardly receive funds, but whose trade links cross Central and Eastern Europe, generating profit from the investments there. The richer, Western European nontargeted regions also enjoy a higher GDP after the investment in the East, but these effects are smaller. Thus, the policy reduces interregional disparities. There are rippled patterns in the predicted policy spillovers. In nontargeted countries, regions trading more intensely with regions where the investment is taking place on average benefit more compared to other regions within the same country, but also compared to neighboring regions across an international border. We uncover that regions importing goods from Central and Eastern Europe enjoy the largest spillovers. These regions become more competitive and expand exports, to the detriment of other regions in the same country.     

城市发展指数指引下的我国收缩区域初步评判

城市收缩在全球范围内蔓延，致使以增长为假设前提的区域经济增长模型受到极大挑战。本文以县域单元为研究对象，利用2000年与2010年各县域单元的社会经济数据构建城市发展指数，在其指引下对我国城市收缩状况做初步分析。研究表明：①在城市化的快速进程中，我国县域单元出现收缩现象，特别是县、自治县、自治旗、旗出现较多数量的收缩。②发生收缩的县域单元共261个，大多数为人口较少的中小城镇；西部地区分布较多，且收缩面积较大。③收缩的县级行政区表现出一些共性特征：人口数量和密度下降、老龄化加深、医疗卫生条件较差、经济发展缓慢，财政赤字严重。这一结果有助于初步了解我国收缩区域整体格局，并呼吁研究者和政策制定者尽快针对这一问题展开研究，促进区域可持续发展。     

中国春运人口流动网络的富人俱乐部现象与不平衡性分析

基于“百度地图春节人口迁徙大数据”,利用加权网络的富人俱乐部系数和归一化不平衡系数方法,对2015年中国春运期间人口流动网络的富人俱乐部现象和不平衡性进行分析。研究结果表明：中国春运人口流动网络中存在明显的富人俱乐部现象,富人俱乐部城市包括北京、上海、广州、苏州、深圳和东莞,这些城市主导了超过77.66%中国城市的省际人口流动,且与这些城市之间的人口流动多属于不平衡关系,同时俱乐部城市之间、俱乐部城市与一小部分城市之间则属于平衡关系,这种流动格局很容易造成各城市在人口流动网络中的地位分化,严重影响了人口流动网络的公平性和安全性。     

DISPERSION FORMS: AN INTERACTION OF MARKET ACCESS,COMPETITION, AND URBAN COSTS*

ABSTRACT This paper analyzes a two‐region model including multiple industries with different transport costs. Two results are derived. First, dispersion occurs for small transport costs, but the specific dispersion patterns depend on the level of urban costs. This results from an interaction of the market‐access effect on consumers, the market‐access effect on firms, the competition effect, and the urban‐cost effect. Second, decreasing transport cost tends to let industries with lower transport costs disperse, although the shares of industries locating in the larger region are not in order of their transport costs. We further provide some empirical data concerning the second result.     

全球化浸入中国城市的时空演化过程及影响因素分析——以8家大型跨国零售企业为例

本质为地理过程的全球化与跨国公司相伴而来,其浸入区域、城市具有时空差异性。本文以八家大型跨国零售企业为例,研究全球化浸入中国城市的时空演化过程及影响因素。研究发现:第一,全球化浸入表现出明显的空间推移规律,即稳定的"沿海-内陆"深度格局,以及"东广西疏"转向"南袤北稀"广度格局;第二,全球化浸入中国城市遵循规模等级推移规律,包括人口规模、经济发展水平以及行政等级;第三,人口规模、对外交流水平对全球化的浸入影响显著性稳定,开放政策、城市区位因素弱化,居民收入水平影响增强。