AGGLOMERATION,CONGESTION, AND U.S. REGIONAL DISPARITIES IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

Wide regional disparities exist in U.S. employment growth. To identify the causes of this disparities, we assess the relative contribution of locational characteristics to regional employment growth in the United States from 2001 to 2010 by estimating an employment growth model with the spatial‐lag effect. Results show that, at the margin, congestion effects dominate localized scale externalities in urban counties. A diverse industrial structure and rich human capital are the main factors that contribute to regional disparities in employment growth. Significant spatial‐lag effects indicate that spatial targeting and regional coordination are necessary to maximize the effectiveness of employment growth policies.     

LOCAL INPUT AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN U.S. MANUFACTURING: 1972–2002*

ABSTRACT This research analyzes manufacturing growth and decline across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan regions during the 1972–2002 period. We decompose real value added growth across local labor market areas in the lower 48 U.S. states into contributions from labor, capital, and total factor productivity. We then estimate a model describing the long‐run growth of labor, capital, and productivity and find that increased productivity increases the growth of labor and capital, as well as a positive correlation between labor and capital stock growth. We also find evidence that human capital investment and agglomeration economies encourage productivity growth, while unionization discourages it.     

CASH TRANSFERS AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN CHILE*

ABSTRACT The headcount ratio in Chile has declined from 40 percent to 14 percent since 1987. However, most analysis of this reduction uses national and regional poverty statistics. In contrast, we employ poverty mapping methodologies to find heterogeneity in the effectiveness of transfers across counties. To better understand this variation, we explore the roles of characteristics of the local population, structural features of the county, and geography. The greatest reductions in poverty occur in rural households, yet population characteristics and geography are also important. These findings suggest that targeting at low levels of aggregation can deliver further reductions in poverty.     

RECENT AND PROSPECTIVE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE U.S.S.R.: 1979-2025

This report presents the results and assumptions of a set of projections of the population of the USSR, 1979-2025. Trends in population size and age-sex composition as well as fertility, mortality, and emigration are discussed. The detailed projection methodology is described in Kingkade (1987). The projections show that the population of the USSR will grow throughout the period to 2025. The working age population will grow very slowly for at least the next 10 years, and will not recapture the rapid growth experienced in the 1970s. The pension-age population will double in size between 1980 and 2025.     

INCOME INEQUALITY,ECONOMIC GROWTH,AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME GAINS: EVIDENCE FROM THE U.S. STATES*

ABSTRACT This paper first investigates a relationship between economic growth and income inequality using U.S. states data, a state cost‐of‐living deflator, and nonlinearity. It then explores the distribution of income gains among different income groups. We find that the impact of inequality on growth is nonlinear. Lowering inequality or increasing it substantially reduces growth; thus stable inequality may be good for growth. Economic growth affects incomes of the poor, the middle‐income group, and the rich similarly with the elasticity of one. Education and labor market policies become important in promoting growth and improving income gains of the poor.     

CONVERGENCE AND THE U.S. STATES: A TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS*

ABSTRACT. After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the US. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946.     

A. POVERTY AND RACE

Irene Lurie, ed., Integrating Income Maintenance Programs
Robert D. Plotnick and Felicity Skidmore, Progress Against Poverty
Sar A. Levitan, William B. Johnston and Robert Taggart, Still a Dream: The Changing Status of Blacks Since 1960
Stanley H. Masters, Black-White Income Differentials: Empirical Studies and Policy Implications
Larry L. Orr, Income, Employment, and Urban Residential Location     

地方感的多态与分异：不同人群对旧城街区的感知

地方感指人与地方的情感关联,是地理学特别是人文主义地理学的关键概念。快速城镇化使得“地方”剧变,地方感也变得复杂多样,多元主体的地方感形成机制值得探讨。本文基于人文主义地理学视角,选取江苏省如皋市东大街为典型案例,通过实地调研,运用半结构化访谈等方法,将不同主体的地方感归纳为三类：根植型、创造型和关怀型。老年原住民形成了根植型地方感,其重点在血缘联结、归属感、身份认同;沿街商户生成了创造型地方感,主要涉及美学、经验与私人空间等;虽从地方抽离但仍与地方保持着积极情感纽带的“乡邻”们则形成了关怀型地方感,主要涉及关注、社会互动、熟悉等。借助案例剖析和质性研究方法,本文对地方感多元类型和形成机制的深入探讨将有助于理解地方感的多态性和分异性。     

LAND AND URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA*

ABSTRACT Land to accommodate urban development in China is provided through requisitions by government officials, suggesting that land availability may be a constraint on urban economic growth. An econometric model of urban GDP growth suggests that land has constrained economic growth in coastal areas but not elsewhere. Elasticities calculated from the estimated coefficients indicate that land availability has a larger proportional impact on economic growth than domestic and foreign investment, labor supply, and government spending. The estimated parameters provide evidence about arbitrage opportunities created by discrepancies between urban land value and compensation for requisitioned rural land, suggesting rural unrest associated with conversion of farmland to urban uses may have some economic roots.     

REGIONAL GROWTH IN THE SOVIET ECONOMY A MODEL AND ANALYSIS*

A multiregional econometric model of the Soviet economy is presented. It consists of 1,391 equations, with time-series information for 1965-1980. In conformity with the number of the country's republics, 15 input-output tables are incorporated. The discussion includes the methodological framework, the structure and equations, theoretical justification for the interaction between the econometric and input-output components, data and estimation, and forecasting results.     

REVERSE COMMUTATION IN A MONOCENTRIC CITY*

ABSTRACT. A general equilibrium multiperiod linear programming model of urban land use is used to identify reverse commutation as a rational response to economic change. Information about future economic conditions is complete, and capital is replaceable at finite cost. Export mixes are defined exogenously, and temporal shifts between activities of different land intensities are shown to induce reverse commutes as one way of avoiding the cost of land use change.     

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL DECENTRALIZATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. COUNTIES*

ABSTRACT We analyze the impact of fiscal decentralization on U.S. county population, employment, and real income growth. Our findings suggest that government organization matters for local economic growth, but that the impacts vary by government unit and by economic indicator. We find that single‐purpose governments per square mile have a positive impact on metropolitan population and employment growth, but no significant impact on nonmetropolitan counties. In contrast, the fragmentation of general‐purpose governments per capita has a negative impact on employment and population growth in nonmetropolitan counties. Our results suggest that local government decentralization matters differently for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.     

城市空间扩散增长模型与模拟

城市模型模拟是上世纪90年代上半期形成并迅速发展的地学计算理论、方法与应用研究的最重要领域,国外以M. Batty为代表的规划与地理学家们进行了开创性的研究,取得了很多有用成果。本文借鉴这些学者的研究思路,从城市土地利用与开发的视角,利用疾病感染、传播机理的模拟方法,研究城市空间扩展、演化动力学过程的模型模拟问题;为模拟城市土地开发利用在不同阶段的表现与特征,研究了基本模型的不同变换形式;讨论了基于细胞自动机模型的城市空间扩展模型的计算结构,依据模拟结果,探讨了以城市形态扩展特征为指标进行城市分类的可行性,尝试对城市地理学的模型模拟方法作一拓展。