中国历史园林遗产时空演变特征及其影响因素

借助核密度分析、标准差椭圆和重心坐标探讨了历史园林遗产重心演化的轨迹与路径,梳理各类型历史园林时空分布,考察了影响其空间演化轨迹的重要因素。结果表明:我国历史园林遗产现状空间分布较为广泛,但空间集聚度高,分布不均衡,在园林类型上表现更为明显,与我国历史园林发展的脉络高度一致,与政治中心和经济中心迁移一致;不同类型的历史园林有着不同空间演变路径,皇家园林主要受朝代更迭与政令举措的影响,私家园林主要受经济发展与文化兴衰的影响,寺观园林主要受宗教政策与传教线路的影响。     

Assessing the Cluster Correspondence between Paired Point Locations

Some complex geographic events are associated with multiple point locations. Such events include, but are not limited to, those describing linkages between and among places. The term multi‐location event is used in the paper to refer to these geographical phenomena. Through formalization of the multi‐location event problem, this paper situates the analysis of multi‐location events within the broad context of point pattern analysis techniques. Two alternative approaches (Vector autocorrelation analysis and cluster correspondence analysis) to the spatial dependence of paired‐location events (i.e., two‐location events) are explored, with a discussion of their appropriateness to general multi‐location event problems. The research proposes a framework of cluster correspondence analysis for the detection of local non‐stationarities in the spatial process generating multi‐location events. A new algorithm for local analysis of cluster correspondence is proposed. It is implemented on a large‐scale dataset of vehicle theft and recovery location pairs in Buffalo, New York.     

5. CONTROVERSIAL CHRONOLOGIES: THE TEMPORAL DEMARCATION OF HISTORIC EVENTS

In everyday language and in historiography, influential events are commonly described as “historic” but are rarely defined from a theoretical standpoint. Discussing temporal demarcations of events by scholars—in particular William H. Sewell Jr.'s foundational study of the Storming of the Bastille—this article considers the contemporary urge to define the event's temporal boundaries to better evaluate the alleged importance of certain events in history. Rather than perpetuating the constructivist idea that any event possesses a fundamentally interpretable character, it crafts a theoretical definition of the historic event that distinguishes between its flexible fringes and its rather stable core. Fixing an event as an anchor point on the timeline of history is thus presented as a process that provokes political, social, and—last but not least—financial controversies. As this article shows with examples from the history of revolutions reaching from the late eighteenth century to the early twenty‐first century, such epoch‐making events are essentially shaped by their flexible beginning and ending points. Although the cores of these events remain strikingly stable, their temporal fringes become objects of highly controversial discussions.     

Methodological Considerations in the Analysis of Residential Mobility: A Test of Duration,State Dependence,and Associated Events

This paper provides evidence that a longitudinal research methodology is particularly well suited to disentangle life-course explanations of residential mobility while controlling for the duration-of-residence effect. Much of the literature on residential mobility has yielded conflicting evidence regarding the effects of cumulative inertia, cumulative stress, and duration dependence due in large part to different methodologies and different operational conceptions of the life cycle. I argue that the lack of analytical attention directed toward the concept of the risk period, as well as the persistent use of the household, rather than the individual, as the unit of analysis, further serve to confound our understanding of residential mobility. The empirical analysis uses the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and discrete-time logistic regression models to include duration dependence, state dependence, associated events and nonstationarity in models of residential mobility for both renters and owners. Using an event-oriented data structure that links household careers and housing careers, the study is conducted in three stages: (1) important tenure differences are established using comparative survival rates, (2) discrete-time logit models of the hazard of moving, that include duration dependence and state dependence, are fitted by tenure group, and (3) the models are extended to include a change in household type as an associated event that increases (or decreases) the likelihood of moving. The findings indicate the potential of event-history analysis to advance the field of residential mobility by providing a means to assess issues that once seemed intractable.     

Policy Coalitions in the U.S. Congress: A Spatial Duration Modeling Approach

This paper applies spatial duration models to the analysis of cosponsorship coalitions in the U.S. House of Representatives. This approach provides a unique and simultaneous statistical analysis of ideological space (specifically, coalition formation) and geographical space. Typically, duration models are associated with temporal longitudinal data, but recently have been adapted to the spatial domain (Pellegrini and Reader 1996). In this paper, spatial duration models are further adapted to examine ideological space including a consideration of unobserved sources of spatial variation (or omitted variable bias). We examine two features of cosponsorship coalitions, breadth and clustering. Breadth is defined as the ideological distance between the two most extreme members of the coalition which is an important “signal” to the rest of Congress regarding the scope and broad appeal of the proposed legislation. In contrast, clustering refers to the distance between individual members of a coalition and reveals the tendency, or not, of ideologically similar members of Congress to support various bills. To examine breadth and clustering, we employ spatial duration models of cosponsorship that permit a multivariate analysis incorporating both the characteristics of members of Congress and the geographical regions they represent. Results indicate that cosponsorship coalition patterns are primarily determined by the content of the legislation, not the actions of the coalition leadership. While the leadership characteristics of sponsors have a limited effect on cosponsorship breadth, the size of the coalition is the primary determinent. Leadership characteristics also have little effect on cosponsorship clustering. Rather, clustering is due to members' policy preferences, as measured by distance to the coalition leader. In addition, the duration analysis results suggest that geographical proximity between members of Congress “overcomes” ideological distance. Finally, the spatial duration approach is noted as a fruitful methodology for examining explicitly spatial patterns in both ideological or geographical space.     

转型期不同住房性质居民的职住关系演变——以上海郊区为例

提 要:从微观尺度检验不同住房性质居民职住关系的时空演变,有助于理解中国城市社会空间重构的深层机制.利用问卷调查开展2000年以来上海郊区不同住房性质居民职住地变迁的时间地理学分析.研究发现:不同住房性质居民的职住关系变化呈现显著差异."市场购房"居民多由中心城区向外迁移和郊区侧向迁移,职住距离上升,职住关系更加固定;...     

重大事件对城市空间结构的影响:研究进展与管理对策

在全球化竞争日益激烈的背景下,举办重大事件已成为许多城市进行重新定位或推动城市跨越式发展的一种途径。重大事件为综合运用结构主义、制度主义等多种方法研究城市空间结构的演化与重构提供了一个难得的契机,但国内外学术界关于重大事件对举办城市空间结构影响的专门研究还比较缺乏,特别是对于事件背景下城市空间要素怎样发生演变以及城市如何借助事件契机对空间结构进行优化的研究还很薄弱。本文通过梳理国内外有关重大事件对举办城市空间结构影响的文献,初步厘清了重大事件对举办城市空间结构的影响因素及作用方式,进而为事件举办城市提出了指导性的战略管理框架,并指出了现有研究存在的不足与未来发展方向。     

项目驱动型会展专业人才培养模式研究——以上海师范大学会展经济与管理专业为例

会展专业人才培养模式是一个院校对于会展办学的整体设计,因而需要进行系统性的构建,但目前这方面的研究成果不多,更缺乏实证性的研究。本文基于文献综述的发现和会展专业的特点,从理论上构建了一个项目驱动型会展专业人才培养模式的基本框架。进而以上海师范大学会展经济与管理专业为例,侧重从教育理念、培养目标、培养过程、培养制度和培养评价等方面进行了实证研究。     

Local Forms of Spatial Analysis

Local forms of spatial analysis focus on exceptions to the general trends represented by more traditional global forms of spatial analysis. There is currently a rapid expansion in the development of such techniques but their history almost exactly parallels that of Geographical Analysis, with the first examples of local analysis appearing in the late 1960s. Indeed, Geographical Analysis has published many of the significant contributions in this field. This paper reviews the development of local forms of spatial analysis and assesses the current situation. Following a discussion on the nature and importance of local analysis, examples are given of local forms of point pattern analysis; local graphical approaches; local measures of spatial dependency; the spatial expansion method; adaptive filtering; multilevel modeling; geographically weighted regression; random coefficients models; autoregressive models; and local forms of spatial interaction models.     

Time After Time

Summary

This essay is an analysis of a series of writings by the Australian intellectual historian Ian Hunter on the subject of ‘theory’. It examines the methodological issues raised by attempting to write a history of theory. The essay particularly seeks to analyse the various aporias at stake in Hunter's project: between the empirical and the transcendental, between history and the event, and between theory and ‘empirical’ history.     

Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR)

Both space and time are fundamental in human activities as well as in various physical processes. Spatiotemporal analysis and modeling has long been a major concern of geographical information science (GIScience), environmental science, hydrology, epidemiology, and other research areas. Although the importance of incorporating the temporal dimension into spatial analysis and modeling has been well recognized, challenges still exist given the complexity of spatiotemporal models. Of particular interest in this article is the spatiotemporal modeling of local nonstationary processes. Specifically, an extension of geographically weighted regression (GWR), geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR), is developed in order to account for local effects in both space and time. An efficient model calibration approach is proposed for this statistical technique. Using a 19‐year set of house price data in London from 1980 to 1998, empirical results from the application of GTWR to hedonic house price modeling demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and its superiority to the traditional GWR approach, highlighting the importance of temporally explicit spatial modeling.     

Types of ionospheric scintillations in southern mid-latitudes during the last sunspot maximum

A 5-yr study (1987–1992) has been undertaken at a southern mid-latitude station, Brisbane (35.6°S invariant latitude) on scintillation occurrences in radio-satellite transmission (at a frequency of 150 MHz) from polar orbit Transit satellites, within a sub-ionospheric invariant latitude range 20–55°S. Over 7000 recorded passes were used to define the spatial and temporal occurrence pattern of different types of scintillation events. Two predominant scintillation types were found: so-called type P (associated with a scintillation patch close to the magnetic zenith) and type S (characteristic of the equatorward edge of auroral scintillation oval). Type S was by far the most frequent during sunspot maximum (1988–1992), with sharp occurrence peaks in the summer-autumn period. Its seasonal occurrence showed a high degree of correlation (correlation coefficient r = 0.8) with the seasonally averaged 10.7 cm solar radio flux. This type occurred mainly at night-time except in austral summer where 40% of scintillations were detected in daytime, coinciding with the well-known summer peak of sporadic-E occurrence. Type P was more predominant during a year (1987) of ascending sunspot activity but decreased to a much lower level during the sunspot maximum.     

Eiscat observations of the ionospheric D-region during auroral radio absorption events

Electron densities in the D-region have been observed with EISCAT during energetic electron precipitation events. Sample results are presented which demonstrate the value of the technique in studying variations of electron density with fine temporal and spatial resolution. Different types of absorption event can be characterized in terms of the changes in the incoming electron spectrum inferred from profiles of electron density. We contrast the D-region behaviour of night- and day-time events in terms of precipitating spectrum and absorption profile. A softening of the electron spectrum during the course of a morning event is clearly seen.     

Paleodietary analysis of a San Francisco Bay Area shellmound: stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of late Holocene humans from the Ellis Landing site (CA-CCO-295)

The late Holocene archaeofaunal record of the San Francisco Bay Area demonstrates temporal declines in the abundance of low-cost, high-ranked marine and terrestrial resources. During later periods of occupation, faunal assemblages are often dominated by lower-ranked, higher-cost resources, suggesting an increase in diet breadth through time. Archaeological resource intensification models argue that this marks a late Holocene decline in foraging efficiency in the Bay Area, driven by human-induced harvest pressure. This study examines dietary change in the region using stable carbon and nitrogen isotope data from 65 human burials, spanning two temporal components (cal AD 55–890 and cal AD 762–1550) at the Ellis Landing site (CA-CCO-295). The strong linear relationship between collagen carbon and nitrogen isotope values reflects both marine and terrestrial food consumption, with individuals showing a high level of dietary variability at the site. No temporal trend or meaningful sex differences were found in isotope values. The widening of diet breadth predicted by the archaeofaunal record occurred prior to the occupation of the Ellis Landing shellmound site. The trend in exploiting a greater amount of terrestrial resources during the Middle and Late Period in central California was supported by isotopic evidence.     

Variations in the Spatial Pattern of Settlement Locations: An Analysis Based on Proportional Hazards Models

Models based on hazard functions are used to analyze spatial trends in the distance intervals separating point locations. The proportional hazards model, which has been widely applied to analyze intervals of time, is used to investigate variation in the spacing of settlements in Nebraska. This model allows spatial trends in the intervals between settlements to be investigated under very general conditions regarding the interdependence of settlement locations and permits the coordinate locations of the intervals to be treated as spatially varying covariates. An empirical analysis reveals an East-West trend in the spacing of settlements.     

江苏省流动人口分布的格局演变及其驱动因素——基于城乡建设用地的探讨

基于乡镇单元人口普查数据以及相应年份的城乡建设用地数据,运用空间分析和统计分析方法,尝试分析城镇-农村尺度江苏省流动人口分布格局的时空演变特征,并揭示驱动人口流动的动力机制。结果表明：①规模分布特征是具有较长大值右尾部的正偏分布,总体的集聚趋势增强,城镇和乡村集聚流动人口差距变大;②空间呈现高值集聚特征,热点区主要集中在长江以南的城镇,沿江地区流动人口高密度区域逐渐连绵化;③增长变化呈现长江以北地区城镇的流入人口增加、农村的输出人口减少,以及长江以南地区城镇的流入人口快速增加、农村的流入人口普遍增加的特征;④经济发展水平差异、乡镇企业繁荣、交通可达和政策导向是影响江苏省流动人口集聚的四大动力。     

多类型微博舆情时空分布关系的差异性及其地理规则

以新浪微博转发行为作为舆情时空分布的研究对象,分别选取4·20雅安地震事件代表重大社会舆情、凤凰古城收费事件代表公众生活舆情、郭某某事件代表网络热点舆情3类案例,总结不同类型微博舆情的时空分布特征及差异性,进而透视客观存在的地理规则。研究发现：①3类舆情事件微博转发量的时间分布分别表现为：长尾型、山峰型、多个时间段上的波浪型。②与时间轴对应的空间分布呈等级结构,信息扩散节点城市等级（转发量）结构还会表现出一定的空间伸缩变形或与距离衰减形成叠加关系,3类事件分别表现为：延续传统规律的“始终金字塔”结构、在相对较长时间过程中具有范围伸缩的“始终金字塔”结构、距离衰减影响下的“始终金字塔”结构。城市规模效应主导和距离摩擦阻尼效应影响构成网络信息空间分布的基本地理规则。③微博舆情时空分布的差异性与事件类型有关,并与不同微博用户的作用有关。微博用户的不平衡区域分布和其跨区域流动对信息空间分布产生直接影响。     

The Changing Geography of Violence in Russia's North Caucasus, 1999-2011: Regional Trends and Local Dynamics in Dagestan,Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria

Three U.S. geographers analyze the temporal and spatial trends of 17,438 violent events in Russia's North Caucasus region from August 1999 to July 2011, demonstrating that the diffusion of conflict away from Chechnya intensified during the period 2007-2011, as levels of violence rose in neighboring republics. An increasing number of casualties are civilians in Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria, the three republics that are the focus of the paper. Employing multiple methods of spatial pattern analysis and geographically sensitive regression models, the authors examine the spatial fragmentation of violence from the perspective of rebel groups operating in the three republics. The analysis documents how the incidence of violence varies dramatically over space (i.e., reflecting the influence of urbanization, strategic location, and physical geographic factors such as elevation and extent of forest cover). Although violence in the North Caucasus region as a whole has declined in absolute terms over the past four years, the authors show how new geographies of violence are developing in the region, underscoring the emergence of republic-based insurgent operations against the various organs of the Russian state. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H560, H770, O180. 9 figures, 3 tables, 1 appendix, 103 references:     

A third road to the past? Historical scholarship in the age of big data

Is a third passage to the past possible, beyond Elton's and Fogel's two roads of narrative history and scientific/quantitative history? One that would combine narrative history's focus on the event, on individuals and their actions, at a particular time and place, to scientific/quantitative history's emphasis on explicit behavioral models based on social-science theories? That is the question this article addresses. It illustrates a computer-assisted methodology for the study of narrative—quantitative narrative analysis (QNA)—that does just that. Based on the 5 Ws + H of narrative—Who, What, When, Where, Why, and How—QNA quantifies events without losing the event itself, without losing people behind numbers, diachronic time behind synchronic statistical coefficients. When used in conjunction with dynamic and interactive data visualization tools (and new natural language processing tools), QNA may provide a third unforeseen road to the past.